Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[Venomous72]

On 9/9/2022 at 1:26 PM, mjoeyoung said:

Examples? Please name a book or books that you think could be purchased now, or in the next few years, and what you think they could be worth in 5 to 10 years.

I am not who you asked, but I think X-Men are good buys right now.

GSX1 and Hulk 181 will increase based on MCU happenings.  

X-Men 1 feels low to me compared to FF1, Hulk 1, etc.

Silver Age early Spidey’s are great currently.  The single digit issues, plus 14 and 50 (although 50 is a bit high I think).

 

I think a lot of books are still going down tho, like FFB mentioned above.  But I still would not feel bad grabbing any of the books I listed above at today’s FMV.

Edited September 9, 2022 by Venomous72

[Gregd]

On 9/9/2022 at 3:37 PM, FFB said:

I don't think right now is a good time to be buying bigger books.  I believe we are in the middle of a general downturn that is going to accelerate as the global economy falls into a pretty deep recession, and no one knows how the Federal Reserve and other central banks will act or what will happen to inflation.  Late 2023 and early 2024 are my current guesstimate for when the market will come close to hitting the bottom, but it could be even later than that if there is more global instability from military conflicts in Ukraine, Taiwan, or elsewhere.  All of the sanctions and disruptions to global supply chains will make economic markets very unstable and unpredictable, but what I believe (i.e., my opinion) is that we are headed for a lousy couple/few years in the global economy.  That isn't going to be good for the comic book market in the short or even intermediate term.  

Also, I don't have a crystal ball, so I can't say that this book or that book will be worth X now and 2X or 3X in 5 to 10 years' time.  I've been collecting for almost 50 years, however, and have become pretty familiar with how the comic market behaves when there is an economic downturn.  When the economy is weak, people tend to spend less on comics.  When it is strong, people tend to spend more.  I've always gotten the most bang for my buck when I've bought books during economic downturns.  That's what I expect to happen again as we work through the present situation.  

I agree about a lot of this… but timing is always tricky. Why I say it’s probably good to be tip toeing into picking up books that have fallen. Just like the market, economic outlook can swing in a day and trying to time when to jump in is a fools game:

 

Just like stock picking- pick good books (higher grade) with sound fundamentals (notable issues with smaller census numbers)  with a reasonable historical price point 🤷🏻
Not all picks will perform well so be diversified. I invest in golden age, silver age, bronze, a little modern and magazines. 

[mjoeyoung]

On 9/9/2022 at 1:37 PM, FFB said:

Late 2023 and early 2024 are my current guesstimate for when the market will come close to hitting the bottom

I agree with your timeframe, I think we are at the beginning of the downturn.

 

On 9/9/2022 at 1:50 PM, Gregd said:

with a reasonable historical price point 🤷🏻

Well that IS the question.  I do not see a lot of "reasonable" in the market, and I haven't for a long while.

I don't have a crystal ball either, and I am a collector, not an investor,  but I can tell you what I think is reasonable for SA+, for most books, most grades, that would be early 2019 prices.

What would you consider a "higher grade?'  The price swings on high grade keys are astronomical.  Some buyers may have already lost 10s of thousands, if current trends continue.

[MetalPSI]

On 9/9/2022 at 1:26 PM, mjoeyoung said:

Examples? Please name a book or books that you think could be purchased now, or in the next few years, and what you think they could be worth in 5 to 10 years.

Every book I own

- 10 to 25%

[zosocane]

On 9/9/2022 at 3:12 PM, FFB said:

I completely agree with you.  The next couple of years should provide some excellent buying opportunities on books that will look cheap in 5 to 10 years.  

Especially higher and high grade SA books from the first part of the SA (1956 to 1965) and always-in-demand and tough GA books.  I have seen some raw GA classic cover books fetching very high prices at auction.  Bottom line is that high-quality books and HTF books will drive growth while the broader economy has slowed.

[Nick Furious]

On 9/9/2022 at 12:26 PM, mjoeyoung said:

Examples? Please name a book or books that you think could be purchased now, or in the next few years, and what you think they could be worth in 5 to 10 years.

If you wanted to limit the downside risk, I would say DC Silver age first appearances.  Marvel keys have already priced in expectations and are now pulling back a bit from that.  DC Silver Age first appearances haven't priced in a whole lot of expectations.  I think they provide upside potential with downside risk that is much more limited.  I would also put magazine first appearances in the category of limited downside risk.   

[Microchip]

On 9/10/2022 at 5:37 AM, FFB said:

On 9/10/2022 at 5:26 AM, mjoeyoung said:

Examples? Please name a book or books that you think could be purchased now, or in the next few years, and what you think they could be worth in 5 to 10 years.

I don't think right now is a good time to be buying bigger books.  I believe we are in the middle of a general downturn that is going to accelerate as the global economy falls into a pretty deep recession, and no one knows how the Federal Reserve and other central banks will act or what will happen to inflation.  Late 2023 and early 2024 are my current guesstimate for when the market will come close to hitting the bottom, but it could be even later than that if there is more global instability from military conflicts in Ukraine, Taiwan, or elsewhere.  All of the sanctions and disruptions to global supply chains will make economic markets very unstable and unpredictable, but what I believe (i.e., my opinion) is that we are headed for a lousy couple/few years in the global economy.  That isn't going to be good for the comic book market in the short or even intermediate term.  

Also, I don't have a crystal ball, so I can't say that this book or that book will be worth X now and 2X or 3X in 5 to 10 years' time.  I've been collecting for almost 50 years, however, and have become pretty familiar with how the comic market behaves when there is an economic downturn.  When the economy is weak, people tend to spend less on comics.  When it is strong, people tend to spend more.  I've always gotten the most bang for my buck when I've bought books during economic downturns.  That's what I expect to happen again as we work through the present situation.  

A. 2x to 5x is way too conservative, for the right books over 5-10 years.   The range in prices is only increasing for books. It was $0-3$0,000. now it's $0-$250,000.   And any book can 'join' the top prices if the right factors come in to play.

B. Yes, big books are the best, but avoid a few of the 9.8's currently, ASM#129 Ff#48,52 Hulk#181.   

C. Book collecting is going to go global thanks to the mass media.  Not in terms of me, and a few other geeks outside the US.  Think Jordan shoes, the whole marketing explosion that happened around him the Bulls, and Basketball as a whole.  It all moved to the next level for mass appeal to those outside the core participants, who want apiece of the action.

D.  Don't hate on copper age, it will join the SA, and BA.

D. Groot without a T will rise 

[GermanFan]

On 9/9/2022 at 9:37 PM, FFB said:

I don't think right now is a good time to be buying bigger books.  I believe we are in the middle of a general downturn that is going to accelerate as the global economy falls into a pretty deep recession, and no one knows how the Federal Reserve and other central banks will act or what will happen to inflation.  Late 2023 and early 2024 are my current guesstimate for when the market will come close to hitting the bottom, but it could be even later than that if there is more global instability from military conflicts in Ukraine, Taiwan, or elsewhere.  All of the sanctions and disruptions to global supply chains will make economic markets very unstable and unpredictable, but what I believe (i.e., my opinion) is that we are headed for a lousy couple/few years in the global economy.  That isn't going to be good for the comic book market in the short or even intermediate term.  

Also, I don't have a crystal ball, so I can't say that this book or that book will be worth X now and 2X or 3X in 5 to 10 years' time.  I've been collecting for almost 50 years, however, and have become pretty familiar with how the comic market behaves when there is an economic downturn.  When the economy is weak, people tend to spend less on comics.  When it is strong, people tend to spend more.  I've always gotten the most bang for my buck when I've bought books during economic downturns.  That's what I expect to happen again as we work through the present situation.  

We are in a historical situation. The last of the babyboomers, who drove all the prices since the 60s, are going to retire. They will have to spend most of their money for living expenses.

And the geopolitical power shift, away from the west, bye bye old europe, to the east, Eurasia, is in full swing. Living in Germany I am happy to survive the next 5 to 7 years. Europe may become like Argentina. 

The point of error for me is always the timing. I underestimate how long it all takes.

But think of NFTs. Looking back in a couple of years ppl will shake their heads. Buying jpegs for real money. Really?

[lou_fine]

On 9/9/2022 at 12:50 PM, Gregd said:

I agree about a lot of this… but timing is always tricky. Why I say it’s probably good to be tip toeing into picking up books that have fallen. Just like the market, economic outlook can swing in a day and trying to time when to jump in is a fools game:

 

Although I have clearly heard this argument from the pros as to why regular investors like you and me should stay invested in the market longer term, it actually sounds like a lot of the pros themselves are not following their own advice as they are constantly buying and selling.  

To keep things fair, do you have the stats for the opposite scenario whereby what is your return if you miss the 10 worst days, 20 worst days, etc.?  

[PKJ]

On 9/10/2022 at 1:47 AM, Nick Furious said:

If you wanted to limit the downside risk, I would say DC Silver age first appearances.  Marvel keys have already priced in expectations and are now pulling back a bit from that.  DC Silver Age first appearances haven't priced in a whole lot of expectations.  I think they provide upside potential with downside risk that is much more limited.  I would also put magazine first appearances in the category of limited downside risk.   

Aside from a couple of Marvel Keys I needed (Hulk 1), this was my approach almost exactly last year. Grab the DC keys I had put off and work on magazine keys. Ironically I need a Vampirella 1 and each auction I bid on seems to be higher than the last.

 

I was happy with the Hulk price even though it was right at the beginning of the large uptick. I also sold off some Mickey Mantle cards for peak prices to finance some of this so I felt the entry price was still around what I paid for the Mantle cards (all bought during when that hobby was way down.)

[Gregd]

On 9/10/2022 at 7:52 AM, PKJ said:

Aside from a couple of Marvel Keys I needed (Hulk 1), this was my approach almost exactly last year. Grab the DC keys I had put off and work on magazine keys. Ironically I need a Vampirella 1 and each auction I bid on seems to be higher than the last.

 

I was happy with the Hulk price even though it was right at the beginning of the large uptick. I also sold off some Mickey Mantle cards for peak prices to finance some of this so I felt the entry price was still around what I paid for the Mantle cards (all bought during when that hobby was way down.)

Vamps/Warrens in high grade are on the upswing. One of the few places where there are still some bargains but that is evaporating quickly. They are the perfect example of few high grade books a available (often single digits) in reasonable territory (apart from Vamp 1). 

Edited September 10, 2022 by Gregd

[Gregd]

On 9/10/2022 at 4:30 AM, lou_fine said:

Although I have clearly heard this argument from the pros as to why regular investors like you and me should stay invested in the market longer term, it actually sounds like a lot of the pros themselves are not following their own advice as they are constantly buying and selling.  

To keep things fair, do you have the stats for the opposite scenario whereby what is your return if you miss the 10 worst days, 20 worst days, etc.?  

The pros may buy and sell but look at what the average managed funds performance over time vs a 500 index fund…. It’s very very often a losing game. Trying to time peaks and bottoms in any investment is difficult. Just need to buy over time and hold until you need the income. 

[Gregd]

On 9/10/2022 at 4:30 AM, lou_fine said:

Although I have clearly heard this argument from the pros as to why regular investors like you and me should stay invested in the market longer term, it actually sounds like a lot of the pros themselves are not following their own advice as they are constantly buying and selling.  

To keep things fair, do you have the stats for the opposite scenario whereby what is your return if you miss the 10 worst days, 20 worst days, etc.?  

[lou_fine]

These two charts confirmed that the downside risk is so much greater as compared to the upside gains in terms of volatility as I guess the equity markets tends to trudge up slowly over time, but sadly, tends to drop like a rock at a much faster pace.  

[lou_fine]

On 9/10/2022 at 5:14 AM, Gregd said:

Trying to time peaks and bottoms in any investment is difficult. Just need to buy over time and hold until you need the income. 

This has most definitely worked out very well for the long time vintage comic book collectors when it comes to the comic book marketplace.  

Not so sure about trying to time the comic book marketplace though in terms of the speculative movie/TV related and variant comic book marketplace though.  

Edited September 10, 2022 by lou_fine

[mjoeyoung]

On 9/10/2022 at 11:36 AM, lou_fine said:

On 9/10/2022 at 6:14 AM, Gregd said:

Trying to time peaks and bottoms in any investment is difficult. Just need to buy over time and hold until you need the income. 

This has most definitely worked out very well for the long time vintage comic book collectors when it comes to the comic book marketplace. 

That is a big question.  How many of the people who are paying these huge values for comics are new "investors," and when are they going to decide to sell? What is the psychology there?  I will take Amazing Fantasy #15 in a 4.0 as an example.  GPA has a 2020 avg of $21375 and a 12 month avg of $57965 (2.7X increase) with 2 sales OVER $70K.  LAST 2 sales (including one today at Heritage) are BELOW $39K.  That is about a 32% average loss on paper (the S&P is only down 15% YTD) if the new sales are the new value floor.    How many new "investors" are going to see losses like this and decide that comics are a bad investment, take their lumps, sell and go invest in something else. One thing not mentioned yet in the stock market comparisons is that many people end up buying high and selling low. It takes a good amount of mental fortitude to watch your investments lose significant value and not sell.

Edited September 10, 2022 by mjoeyoung

[Gregd]

On 9/10/2022 at 4:06 PM, mjoeyoung said:

That is a big question.  How many of the people who are paying these huge values for comics are new "investors," and when are they going to decide to sell? What is the psychology there?  I will take Amazing Fantasy #15 in a 4.0 as an example.  GPA has a 2020 avg of $21375 and a 12 month avg of $57965 (2.7X increase) with 2 sales OVER $70K.  LAST 2 sales (including one today at Heritage) are BELOW $39K.  That is about a 32% average loss on paper (the S&P is only down 15% YTD) if the new sales are the new value floor.    How many new "investors" are going to see losses like this and decide that comics are a bad investment, take their lumps, sell and go invest in something else. One thing not mentioned yet in the stock market comparisons is that many people end up buying high and selling low. It takes a good amount of mental fortitude to watch your investments lose significant value and not sell.

Yes- that’s the point of buy and hold- you need to set things aside and not worry about the ups and downs of a market. Just like a 401k account- look at it once a year if you are skittish.

Comic Collecting, like any other asset, will recover its losses. Yes - for the very few that paid huge sums of money for that one grail issue- they will feel the sting. But I would bet the vast majority of comic collectors are like me- shy away from books that are in the tens of thousands because they can’t afford that much or don’t want to put that much into a single item (actually 99% of my collection are books bought for less than $1000). And chances are those people who paid big bucks for a high grade nice copy of a grail- at some point they will probably realize a gain (if they hold for long enough). The cycle is always the same- frenzy followed by fear followed by frenzy. 

 

[Gregd]

On 9/10/2022 at 1:33 PM, lou_fine said:

These two charts confirmed that the downside risk is so much greater as compared to the upside gains in terms of volatility as I guess the equity markets tends to trudge up slowly over time, but sadly, tends to drop like a rock at a much faster pace.  

Yes- but what’s the alternative? Never to invest? Buffett himself told his family members to take all the money they inherit and simply just put it into the s and p- and forget about it. 
 

And if you have been collecting for a long time you would have made money in this hobby if you steadily collected keys and quality books through  the ups and downs and ignored the downturns. 

[EastEnd1]

On 9/10/2022 at 4:27 PM, Gregd said:

And if you have been collecting for a long time you would have made money in this hobby if you steadily collected keys and quality books through  the ups and downs and ignored the downturns. 

No question... 

[Nick Furious]

When taken as a whole, historical S&P 500 performance is based on the real profitability of real companies.  Typically, the aggregate "price-to-earnings" ratio remains consistently range bound from year to year.  Much of that historical profitability growth is dependent on ever-increasing government spending.  Much of that government spending growth is based on borrowing.  To look at historical stock performance and extrapolate into the future is to assume that government spending will continue to increase at the same rates as in the past.  I don't believe this can happen in perpetuity without some kind of reckoning.  Maybe it's just a devaluation of the currency relative to daily essentials.  Maybe it's worse than that.  But in inflation-adjusted terms, I would not be inclined to believe that past is perpetual prelude regarding the S&P 500.    

Edited September 11, 2022 by Nick Furious