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Your predictions for one year from now.
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Started by lordbyroncomics,

107 posts in this topic

VintageComics

VintageComics

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, october said:

Not so much a prediction as a fervent hope: prices crater 50% (like they have on many sports cards) thus flushing many of the spec bois, Instagram "influencers", and YouTube comic bros out of the hobby. Pack of opportunistic know-nothings that don't give a #$%@ about the medium. 

The card market is a different animal in a few ways. For one, many more cards are available and many of the radical price increases were for newer cards (I mean, how many Jordan and Kobe cards are out there?)

2 hours ago, THE_BEYONDER said:

The difference between the last 10 years and the last 10 months is the rate of increase.  Are you buying in at current prices?  

While I agree with you, WHERE the money coming from matters.

Apparently there's a lot of money coming in from other hobbies were population (or census) numbers are much higher, making comics look attractive to them.

And some of the big money is rumored to have holding power, meaning they may not need to sell to fund something else for their collection.

If that's the case some prices may stay high as those owners will hold until they get their number.

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djzombi

djzombi

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1 hour ago, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I'm trying to be smart about it and picking my spots, but yes I am continuing to buy at today's prices.  Keep in mind I am a run collector so I am buying to hold -- I don't do pure speculation (i.e. I'm never buying books I don't want to own and I'm never buying multiples of a given book).  Thankfully, I can say my collection was over 95% complete before this crazy price spike, and I can also say I have a solid copy of every SA / BA / modern book I'm looking for -- in other words, with the exception of the pre-hero books I'm targeting (which have not really spiked anyway) all I am doing is upgrading.

So, given those particular circumstances, I can justify paying today's prices to fill the remaining holes in my runs because (a) taken as a whole, my collection is doing great overall even if some pieces in the portfolio end up staying flat or even dipping relative to what I paid, and (b) I am selling my undercopies in this same market which softens the blow of the new acquisitions.

I am pretty much in the same boat as you.  My "want list" is winding down, I'm at the point where I'm pretty happy with my collection, and I feel I don't mind paying today's prices on some books knowing it may be the last book I need to complete a run.  It's worth paying a premium for that satisfaction!  
I also need to get on board with selling undercopies.  I literally have maybe a couple thousand "doubles" just sitting there after 35+ years of collecting.  It's just such a hassle to post things for sale  :(  

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THE_BEYONDER

THE_BEYONDER

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2 hours ago, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I'm trying to be smart about it and picking my spots, but yes I am continuing to buy at today's prices.  Keep in mind I am a run collector so I am buying to hold -- I don't do pure speculation (i.e. I'm never buying books I don't want to own and I'm never buying multiples of a given book).  Thankfully, I can say my collection was over 95% complete before this crazy price spike, and I can also say I have a solid copy of every SA / BA / modern book I'm looking for -- in other words, with the exception of the pre-hero books I'm targeting (which have not really spiked anyway) all I am doing is upgrading.

So, given those particular circumstances, I can justify paying today's prices to fill the remaining holes in my runs because (a) taken as a whole, my collection is doing great overall even if some pieces in the portfolio end up staying flat or even dipping relative to what I paid, and (b) I am selling my undercopies in this same market which softens the blow of the new acquisitions.

I think upgrading in the current market is pretty safe.  9.4 prices aren’t all that crazy if you have a 9.2 to sell to finance it. (thumbsu

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october

october

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2 hours ago, VintageComics said:

The card market is a different animal in a few ways. For one, many more cards are available and many of the radical price increases were for newer cards (I mean, how many Jordan and Kobe cards are out there?)

While I agree with you, WHERE the money coming from matters.

Apparently there's a lot of money coming in from other hobbies were population (or census) numbers are much higher, making comics look attractive to them.

And some of the big money is rumored to have holding power, meaning they may not need to sell to fund something else for their collection.

If that's the case some prices may stay high as those owners will hold until they get their number.

You are missing the point. If people aren't buying for the love of comics, they are buying for the love of money. Once the profit opportunities disappear (and they WILL disappear at some point, prices cannot increase indefinitely...especially at this rate), so will they. No matter how many times people say it, history has shown that a flood of new dumb speculation/investment money is terrible for hobbies in the intermediate term. It doesn't matter if the people hoping to pay off college loans/cars/houses are buying PSA 10 Kobe refractors, cases of Death of Superman issues, Beanie Babies, or CGC 9.8 Star Wars first appearances. It's all just widgets to them. Some day the hype train will slow, the sheeple will get spooked and head for the exits, prices will spiral down and those who actually care about comics and the hobby, who are actually in for the long haul like you and I, will be left cleaning up the mess. 

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VintageComics

VintageComics

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5 minutes ago, october said:

You are missing the point.

Are you sure? :angel:;)

I'm well aware of the market dynamics. I've been talking about it for years.

I do think that all of these 'faux' first appearances will correct. I am not so sure about the actual keys. If you have hedge fund investor types buying books for a long haul (which is what is happening in some cases) and these copies disappear for years then I'm not sure what the outcome will be.

There's NOTHING about ANY market that's normal anymore (and there hasn't been since the advent of the internet / digital age) so I've also stopped trying to predict what's going to happen in the markets. They've been doom and gloom for as long as I've been here (which is a heck of a long time now that I think about it)

After the world economy didn't collapse in 2008 like is should have I've stopped looking towards past performance as an indicator of future performance.

 

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THE_BEYONDER

THE_BEYONDER

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31 minutes ago, october said:

You are missing the point. If people aren't buying for the love of comics, they are buying for the love of money. Once the profit opportunities disappear (and they WILL disappear at some point, prices cannot increase indefinitely...especially at this rate), so will they. No matter how many times people say it, history has shown that a flood of new dumb speculation/investment money is terrible for hobbies in the intermediate term. It doesn't matter if the people hoping to pay off college loans/cars/houses are buying PSA 10 Kobe refractors, cases of Death of Superman issues, Beanie Babies, or CGC 9.8 Star Wars first appearances. It's all just widgets to them. Some day the hype train will slow, the sheeple will get spooked and head for the exits, prices will spiral down and those who actually care about comics and the hobby, who are actually in for the long haul like you and I, will be left cleaning up the mess. 

Widgets:cloud9:

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blazingbob

blazingbob

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33 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

Are you sure? :angel:;)

I'm well aware of the market dynamics. I've been talking about it for years.

I do think that all of these 'faux' first appearances will correct. I am not so sure about the actual keys. If you have hedge fund investor types buying books for a long haul (which is what is happening in some cases) and these copies disappear for years then I'm not sure what the outcome will be.

There's NOTHING about ANY market that's normal anymore (and there hasn't been since the advent of the internet / digital age) so I've also stopped trying to predict what's going to happen in the markets. They've been doom and gloom for as long as I've been here (which is a heck of a long time now that I think about it)

After the world economy didn't collapse in 2008 like is should have I've stopped looking towards past performance as an indicator of future performance.

 

Isn't there a podcast you can put all this market dynamics wisdom on?  I mean why should we miss these golden nuggets of wisdom?  

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october

october

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9 hours ago, VintageComics said:

Are you sure? :angel:;)

I'm well aware of the market dynamics. I've been talking about it for years.

I do think that all of these 'faux' first appearances will correct. I am not so sure about the actual keys. If you have hedge fund investor types buying books for a long haul (which is what is happening in some cases) and these copies disappear for years then I'm not sure what the outcome will be.

There's NOTHING about ANY market that's normal anymore (and there hasn't been since the advent of the internet / digital age) so I've also stopped trying to predict what's going to happen in the markets. They've been doom and gloom for as long as I've been here (which is a heck of a long time now that I think about it)

Parabolic growth in the value of most Marvel keys is a recent phenomenon. We haven't seen a market frenzy like this since the 90's, and that turned out...not great.

And if there was ever a sign that comics are grossly overheated, hedge fund managers buying keys (and dealers somehow thinking that's healthy for the hobby) is definitely it. Good god. 

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