So, what have you heard over the years?

[ninanina]

Thought it might be fun for fellow collectors and Tom to let everyone know what you've heard in the years you've been collecting as far as WHATS GOING TO BE HAPPENING TO THE HOBBY IN THE NEXT 10 - 20 YEARS. I thought of this during my "rediculous" prediction on HULK 181 being a $20,000 comic in NM in 20 years. Some of the things I've heard made me make this "rediculous" prediction. For example, here's what I've heard.

 

Late 70's

 

That FF has been sitting at $1000.00 in NM for about 10 years now. It's never going to go up.

 

Early 80's

 

Those bronze age comics will never be worth anything.

 

Late 80's

 

There's going to be a glut of High Grade Silver Age on the market pretty soon, "cause all those collectors are getting on in years and they're going to be selling their collection.

 

So, what have you heard? And, hey if you've heard anything that actually did come true - that's ok too.

 

 

[Illiterati-migration]

So, what have you heard?

 

CRASH! CRASH! CRASH! DANGER COMIC BOOK BUYERS! CRASH IS IMMINENT!

Mostly that, and that "online comics" are the way of the future. I don't think so, but they're pretty fun to read in classes that have a computer at every desk. Kinda like the old "sticking a comic inside your book to give the appearance of a studious pupil" gag.

[greggy]

Get a room!

[ninanina]

How often have you heard about the "CRASH". How long has this prediction been around? I am thinking at least since the early 90's?

 

Or earlier?

[14 of spades]

i'm not too sure about this crash thing. as long as the high end market holds out well, then things should remain OK.

 

think about eBay for a minute. what proportion of the population are actually USING eBay? as a pure percentage, not very many. i'd say among internet-literate people, 2-4% tops are regular visitors.

 

now consider how many people are USING the internet (again, a relatively small percentage - not exactly a "need" to do such as doing groceries) and how many MORE will be using it as the world becomes even more tech-savvy.

 

so as the rest of the world starts becoming MORE internet literate, and more eBay literate, i think it'll bring comics into the realm of people who would otherwise, not buy any - be it one-time collectors, or whatever.

 

until the internet/ebay makes full market penetration (which is still a few years off), then i don't see demand for HG comics decreasing.

[delekkerste]

Mid-1980s

 

Comic book "expert" proclaims in Time Magazine article on collectibles that the Marvel "Heroes for Hope" one-shot, featuring the X-Men, will hit $100 in 20 years.

 

 

Early 1990s

 

McFarlane's Spidey #1, Jim Lee's X-Men #1, Spawn #1, Superman #75 and a host of Valiant and Image comics are "can't-miss" investments - buy 'em by the case!

 

The arrival of Wizard coincides with the peak popularity of comics during the speculative early 1990s.

 

 

Late 2000-early 2001

 

Consensus view is that all CGC comics graded 9.0 and up deserve to sell for huge multiples of Guide. Many 9.2 graded books sell for where their 9.6 equivalents trade today.

 

 

Early 2001

 

Biggest Spidey buyer on eBay at the time tells me that the upcoming CGC census will vindicate his paying $760 for a PPSS #1 CGC 9.8 and $1,000+ on several occasions for ASM #121 CGC 9.4.

 

Consensus view is that all CGC comics graded 9.4 and up deserve to sell for huge multiples of Guide.

 

 

Mid-to-late 2001

 

Consensus view is that all CGC comics graded 9.6 and up will remain hard to find and deserve to sell for huge multiples of Guide.

 

 

Early 2002

 

Spidey movie mania means that no price is too high to pay for CGC 9.4 and up Spidey issues. Prices hit highs and then soften or crumble, depending on the era.

 

 

Mid-2002

 

With news of a Daredevil movie to be released in 2003, no price is too high to pay for Frank Miller Daredevil issues, including multiple 3-figures for common books in the CGC 9.6 grade. Prices subsequently fall more than 90% from peak values on many books.

 

Consensus view is that all CGC 9.8s and above will remain hard to find and deserve to sell for huge multiples of Guide.

 

 

Early 2003

 

JGreen7472's purchases herald a glorious new age for raw Bronze comic values.

 

Mega-$$$ purchases of Hulk #162, Hulk #181 and Marvel Feature #1 CGC 9.8 signal a permanent era of prosperity for Bronze comic collectors (never mind that 95+% of slabbed Bronze books have fallen in value over the past year).

 

Consensus view is that GA and SA books will never experience a meaningful correction, let alone the utter devastation seen in Bronze and Modern slabbed comic values.

 

Consensus view is that the Daredevil, X-Men 2 and Hulk movies mark the solidification of the comic world's domination over Hollywood for the long run.

 

The arrival of CGG, potentially a third grading company and price database services like GPAnalysis indicate the consensus view's supreme confidence in the future of slabbed books as "investments".

 

Man, who says they don't ring a bell at the top of the market?

 

Gene

[blowout]

I have heard that the best reason to buy comic books is because you like to read them and have an appreciation of the characters.

And not to worry so much about what they may be worth in the future.

[Aman619]

That was great! Every few months the the deal changes as the parade goes on....

Got me a little scared too. Youre starting to make sense.

[joe_collector]

Del, that was absolutely classic!!

 

If you want to really see some doozies, the original poster should actually READ some old Overstreet reports rather than just posting inane garble. I don't ever remember seeing those kinds of "predictions" made by any long-time comic dealer.

 

I have seen insane hype on new comics, CGC comics and movie-based comics though. Why not post some of the true predictions, along with a notation on who exactly stated it and where?

 

I just peeled the cover on one from the early-90's and right there on the first page is the dealer consensus for the best current investment comic:

 

Bloodshot #1

[PovertyRow]

the original poster should actually READ some old Overstreet reports rather than just posting inane garble. I don't ever remember seeing those kinds of "predictions" made by any long-time comic dealer.

 

Man do you have to take this kind of hate-twist? The original quesiton WAS " Thought it might be fun for fellow collectors and Tom to let everyone know what you've heard in the years you've been collecting as far as WHATS GOING TO BE HAPPENING TO THE HOBBY IN THE NEXT 10 - 20 YEARS.

 

Where did the question specify "long-time dealers". It is a damned nostalgia question - and a dmaned GOOD and fun one at that - take it for what it IS - not what YOU want it to be.

 

As far as my own take - I would post it but it would pretty much replicate Nina's observartions. I remember in the original Overstreet (Quarterly was it? Monthly? Whatever - I DID enjoy it - the magazine sized that had the +/- sales info in it). Go back to that and see what was in the minus zone - and THEN remember that these were MAJOR DEALERS that were contributing to these price structures. nd then compare those minuses to what is happening now.

[ninanina]

joe: Sorry, this post is not about the future. It's strictly about all the BS predictions that have been going on since the hobby started. It could even be something another collector may have told you in a conversation.

 

If I gave you that impression by the way I worded the opening post, I apologize. Personally, I'm getting a little tired about arguing or discussing the future. I thought it might be interesting to see what people were saying 10, 20 or 30 years ago.

 

del, the CGC comic crash is old news, however what you wrote about the 80's and 90's was great.

 

Blowout, I agree. Been a great time the last couple of years to sell hi-grades and I chose to keep my comics.

 

Anybody else heard anything?

 

[joe_collector]

Well if you're talking about what a friend-of-a-friend-of-a-friend-of-a-friend-of-a-friend-of-a-friend-of-a-friend-of-a-friend-of-a-friend-of-a-friend-of-a-friend-of-a-friend-of-a-friend-of-a-friend-of-a-friend-of-a-friend-of-a-friend-of-a-friend-of-a-friend-of-a-friend-of-a-friend-of-a-friend-of-a-friend-of-a-friend-of-a-friend-of-a-friend said,then I could post some real doozies as well.

 

One of my friends on public school once said that:

 

"Hulk 181 is a great investment, but I'd only keep it until the CGC market hits its apex in around 2004, then sell, sell, sell!"

 

I've got more, if you want to read them.

 

I'm referring to quantifiable comments from industry professionals, and producing where, when and who actually stated it. Otherwise, you could write just about anything and present as fact.

[PovertyRow]

I'm referring to quantifiable comments from industry professionals

 

That is fine - start your own post about "Quantifiable comments from industry professionals." But I feel the spirit THIS post was made in - it is the spirit of folklore, the spirit of tellings heard in back rooms of comic shops, of tellings heard in when two or three collectors get together for a swap-meet, of tellings heard when helping your local comic book dealer move some stock from the basement to the main floor simply because you LIKE the dealer, of tellings when a friend calls you on the p[hone and says "Hey! I just heard that...." - and yes, of tellings published.

 

But DAMN. "Quantifiable comments from industry professionals"??? You might as well analyze why Superman cannot sustain flight or why Batman and Robins feats are impossible to a simply athletically trained body - let alone trying to analyze Riddler or Penguin or Doc Ock. Just bring the doctoral thesis mindset into it.

 

This is a FUN hobby - FUN! FUN!!!! And part of that FUN is the lore, the rumors, the hype, the "what if's" and the "it did's".

[ninanina]

You want quantifiable comments from industry professionals?

 

How come?

 

All ya' gotta do is read some of these posts on this thread and you'll realize that their predictions are as big a joke as some of the ones I've heard in a conversation.

 

Your taking this waaaaaayyy too seriously. Have some fun.

 

I am interested in what you've heard or read be it from one of these "industry professionals" or whomever. But, if your makin' 'em up, please don't waste our time.

 

Again, its all about how unpredictable this hobby can be. THAT'S IT. There's no conspiracy here, so lighten up.

 

Uh, you can lighten up, right?

 

 

 

 

 

[PovertyRow]

you'll realize that their predictions are as big a joke as some of the ones I've heard in a conversation.

 

Bring it on home! Bring it on home! (sorry - am a Blues fan!)

 

PS - Ablue - if DARE!

[ninanina]

Povertyrow you are exactly correct in what I am trying to do here. Joe appears to want to get into one of his serious arguments/discussions again and this time I just don't want to play.

 

So, thank you for the support.

[LordRahl]

Give up Pov. JC has no idea what FUN means. He has no view that doesn't in some way impact negatively on this hobby. Must be one hell of a miserable life.

[joe_collector]

My problem with your original post is basicially that "because some insufficiently_thoughtful_person stated that Bronze Age comics would NEVER be worth anything", that it somehow proves a point of some type?

 

Any knowledgeable dealer or collector I've ever spoken to fully understood the 20-year rule, whereby popular kid's collectibles inherently rise in value once their 20-year anniversary comes about.

 

Anyone stating otherwise is a simpleton, and not a person I would look to for advice.

 

Even in the early-80's, intelligent dealers like Keith C. were expounding on this fact, even going so far as to predict that "fireplace starters" like Tomb of Dracula and Werewolf would become valuable comics in the coming years.

[COI]

This is a FUN hobby - FUN! FUN!!!!

 

Really? I must have missed this point. Then why is it everytime I get outbid I have to go pump weights in anger until my vision is clouded with red spots. I feel this "fun" hobby will end up killing me.

[FlyingDonut]

do you think 20? I always thought 25 (assuming your personal Golden Age was when you were 12). Maybe it is 20, that would explain all this 80s nostalgia.