'98 Overstreet may be the key...

[Wally's Comics]

To secure some reality in pricing.

 

Pre CGC. Pre Super Hero Movie mayhem.

 

By looking at the pricing in this guide versus this years guide

 

It might focus on what books to avoid paying today's guide

because of the realty check you'd get served once they cooled off.

 

Meaning if the book zoomed up in value between these years (50% difference and up)

it is more likely to fall harder if a possible crash happens...

 

I wonder.

 

 

 

Well I think I'm going to try to get a copy anyway, because it would be fun

just to see how big of difference there is in keys and non-keys.

 

 

[skybolt]

That's a good point. However, the X-Men and Spider-Man movies also played a big factor. I know I got back into collecting after watching the first Spider-Man film.

[Wally's Comics]

Pre Super Hero Movie mayhem.

 

That's a good point. However, the X-Men and Spider-Man movies also played a big factor. I know I got back into collecting after watching the first Spider-Man film.

 

 

I never thought of that one before...

 

 

 

 

 

[ft88]

I may have a copy, I'll look tonight.

[skybolt]

Pre Super Hero Movie mayhem.

 

That's a good point. However, the X-Men and Spider-Man movies also played a big factor. I know I got back into collecting after watching the first Spider-Man film.

 

 

I never thought of that one before...

 

 

 

 

 

Sorry, I must be blind.

[Norrin_Radd]

I may have a copy, I'll look tonight.

I have a copy at home.

[Thegoldenage]

Pre CGC. Pre Super Hero Movie mayhem.

 

As in pre-1989 Batman movie mayhem? Folks went nuts then too. Bob raised prices accordingly and never looked back, even when prices returned to earth.

[ft88]

And what about pre ebay which was a huge movement although it was about the same time as the movies.

[The Less Blob]

yes, but 95/96 - 98 was a somewhat depressed period

[The Less Blob]

mm, my 28th edition lists the first appearance of Usaji Yojimbo for... $5.00 in NM! (actually, it lists it incorrectly as Albedo #1 for $5.00. #2, the real first, is listed for... $3.00!) Wasn't that a triple digit book even in the 80's?

 

As for other stuff...lower grade silver age books are not vastly different in price now than they were in the 28th edition. stuff that was $15 in "Good" is $20-$23 now.

[Norrin_Radd]

Here's a sampling from OSPG 28...

 

AF 15 NM9.4 $27,000

FF 1 NM9.4 $18,400

FF3 NM9.4 $2300

Hulk 1 NM9.4 $11,000

 

CA 74 NM9.4 $3500

Tec 31 NM9.4 $23,000

Suspense 3 NM9.4 $9500

 

Tec 400 NM9.4 $400

GSX 1 NM9.4 $440

Hulk 181 NM9.4 $450

Spotlight 5 NM9.4 $65

[lou_fine]

To secure some reality in pricing.

 

By looking at the pricing in this guide versus this years guide

 

Meaning if the book zoomed up in value between these years (50% difference and up)

it is more likely to fall harder if a possible crash happens...

 

I wonder.

 

 

Nerf;

 

Based upon this criteria, I would guess that all of the high grade books are susceptible to a huge crash in price as based upon the following:

 

1) OS Top 100 GA books had a '98 value of $2.25M vs. a '05 value of $4.8m.

 

2) OS's Top 10 SA books had a '98 value of of $133,800 vs. a '05 value of $314,700.

 

3) OS's Top 10 BA books had a '98 value of $3,695 vs. a '05 value of $7,910.

 

Looks like they all had a price increase of well over 100% in top guide.

[The Less Blob]

sure, everything in high grade has doubled or tripled since then.

 

particularly with bronze age, some stuff was too cheap and a smart high grade collector could have made a killing. I was thumbing through OPG and a lot of good stuff circa 75/76 was still $4.00 in NM. DD 132 (2d Bullseye) I believe was $3.50 in NM and 131 was $18.00. a lot of the DC early BA and late SA was absurdly cheap in guide circa 96 - 98, with a lot of NM books not cracking $5.00.

 

but seriously, do people think the movies are really influencing people to drop $30K on a comic? or even $1K?

 

if that's the case, why are people paying $200+ for 9.4 slabbed 1970s horror comics and other stuff that has nothing to do with movies? i'd love for wrightson to do an animated horror feature, but i haven't heard of one on the way.

 

of course, i have no empirical evidence to back it up, but it seems much more likely that movies might influence more buyers into the $5-$30 low grade book market than the $1-$30K comic market. i could totally see the Spidey or X-Men movies influencing someone to go out and buy a stack of reader copies.

 

Sure, some books got pushed by movies, like DD 168 and the R'as Batman books, Hellboy, Sin City, etc.

[Aman619]

crash in value? In Overstreet?? When th emarket crashes, it will still probably be well above Guide. So should a crash occur, it will be interesting if Overstreet jujst stalls increases for awhile, or actually lowers his prices back BELOW street prices. It would be interesting to see what he would do since he has always trailed the market slowly and steadily. Dealing with a crash woudl be totally our of practice for him.

[tth2]

Based upon this criteria, I would guess that all of the high grade books are susceptible to a huge crash in price as based upon the following:

 

1) OS Top 100 GA books had a '98 value of $2.25M vs. a '05 value of $4.8m.

 

2) OS's Top 10 SA books had a '98 value of of $133,800 vs. a '05 value of $314,700.

 

3) OS's Top 10 BA books had a '98 value of $3,695 vs. a '05 value of $7,910.

 

Looks like they all had a price increase of well over 100% in top guide.

"Well over" seems a tad strong, don`t you think? By my calculation, this shows that GA increased 113%, SA 135% and BA 114%, with an overall increase of 114.5%.

 

Lou, do you think a 114% increase over 7 years is really indicative of a coming huge crash? That is well less than 15% annual compounded growth, which doesn`t exactly translate into "speculative bubble".

[lou_fine]

Lou, do you think a 114% increase over 7 years is really indicative of a coming huge crash? That is well less than 15% annual compounded growth, which doesn`t exactly translate into "speculative bubble".

 

Tim;

 

No, I do not think that a huge crash is coming. I was merely commenting on Nerf's claims that any books with a >50% increase in price during this time period was susceptible to a crash.

 

I should also point out that I strongly doubt there would ever be a huge crash in the market relative to the general OS prices. And I strongly doubt that anybody would ever accuse Overstreet of implanting a speculative bubble in his prices as evident by his tempered and controlled price increases over the years.

 

Now, with respect to a huge crash in prices against Jay Parrino, Jason Ewert, GPA, or CGC Top of Census prices, that's a completely different story that I would not be surprised at all if it happened.

[The Less Blob]

overstreet did adjust a bunch of prices downward in 1998 for low/mid-grade books, so it's not like they always ignore the market

 

and overstreet tends NOT to react with huge increases to short-term and even, sometimes, medium-term speculative swings. NTT #2 IS STILL $6 in top guide! ms. marvel 18 is only $25. (granted, this new top 9.2 silliness distorts things). instead, they ratchet most vintage materials up 5-10% whether or not the market is going in that direction. SO, there are a lot of mid-grade SA books that were $20 books in 1998 and are maybe $25 books now, but the guide says they're $40-$50 books.

[Deucedriver]

but seriously, do people think the movies are really influencing people to drop $30K on a comic? or even $1K?

 

30k? Not directly, but as one member posted earlier he started collecting again after the Spider-man movie. If more people make their way back to the hobby, a few BSD's may make their way in also. I think any press is good for demand (well, for the short term anyway).

 

Now 1k - I definitely think so. I've tracked the history month by month from before a comic book movie was announced all the way through to a post movie letdown, the numbers and volume tell the story. Some books really took off, to the tune of about $1k increases in price. Even though price may not have increased as much with some of the > $1k priced books, the volume sure did.

 

Take a look GP for specific numbers (and Overstreet).

 

Best,

 

Sean

[The Less Blob]

"Some books really took off, to the tune of about $1k increases in price."

 

In Overstreet or GPA data for slabbed 9.8s?

 

ASM 238 is a $95 book in top price in OPG, but apparently cracks thousands in slabbed 9.8

 

DD 168 is $110 in OPG, but is also in the thousands in slabbed 9.8

 

Batman 232 is $185... lord knows what it would be in slabbed 9.8

 

Marvel Spotlight 5 is $220....

 

Granted, the overstreet number is 9.2... of course, they're pretty much the same prices as last year's 9.4s...

 

Alls I'm saying is that Overstreet prices are probably not the place to look to determine what books have been jacked up by movie hype and speculation

[Deucedriver]

My survey took CGC books in the same condition. Off the top of my head I remember one 9.4 or 9.2 example and a 9.0 example. There weren't enough 9.8's to complete the survey in the time period I needed.

 

Sorry for the quick reply - wife is calling. Hope this makes sense! I'll look it up later and post an example.

 

Best,

 

Sean