Will Prices Drop Back Down? 3 3

[Yale Stewart]

Hey everyone. I know this probably isn't the most popular topic of conversation, but I've been really worried about how prices have utterly exploded over the past two years. I've been fortunate enough to be able to put together a near complete run of Vol. 1 of ASM, but I sold my copy of #1 back in 2011 thinking surely 1.8-2.0 books would stay within the $2000-4000 range for at least the next ten years. Little did I expect that 1.5s would be fetching nearly $10,000 in ten years' time. Basically, I'm trying to figure out if I should be in scramble mode and try to get one now while it's still within my budget--at the very, very, very top end of it--before it creeps even further out of my price range, or does anyone think prices may settle back down a little bit at some point? Obviously no one can predict the future, but any guidance or insight would be super appreciated. I'm just a collector trying to make it in an investor's world.

[ExNihilo]

 

[Yale Stewart]

On 11/18/2021 at 1:20 AM, ExNihilo said:

 

Thanks, I hate it.

[Ken Aldred]

One can only hope it happens.

[Yale Stewart]

On 11/18/2021 at 3:12 AM, Ken Aldred said:

One can only hope it happens.

And I want to clarify, I'm not dumb enough to think prices will completely bottom out, but even a 15-25% dip would be huge for me.

[Ken Aldred]

On 11/18/2021 at 9:15 AM, Yale Stewart said:

And I want to clarify, I'm not dumb enough to think prices will completely bottom out, but even a 15-25% dip would be huge for me.

A correction’s more feasible. I’d be surprised if it fell to a level that makes me interested in participating again.

[RickSp]

On 11/18/2021 at 9:18 AM, Ken Aldred said:

A correction’s more feasible. I’d be surprised if it fell to a level that makes me interested in participating again.

Agreed. The spike during the pandemic era has been so huge that even a slight drop won't bring things down to anywhere near what it was a year and a half ago.

If you have access to GP Analysis and check on any key/minor key, the chart just goes mental beyond 2020. Picking up some those early low grade silver age books is no longer affordable in the £100 - £150 range anymore, I can't even go near the higher grade stuff nowadays. And that's just for books that weren't even thought of as keys.

[chrisco37]

As Rick noted, the spikes have been so drastic that a drop probably won't come back down to pre-pandemic levels.  But, I think it also depends on the book.  We're already seeing some the uber-common copper stuff taking big hits from highs only a few months back. 

Unfortunately, you're talking about one of the SA Blue Chip books.  Big spikes on the super keys won't have the big drop.  They may correct slightly, but not by much.  Maybe the 10K entry point comes down to 8k (at "best")?   The Blue Chips tend to be immune to big drops because someone will buy them.  

I'm in the exact same boat as you.  I have 4 books to go for my ASM run.  #1 is one of those books.  I'm probably priced out at this point.  

[William-James88]

On 11/18/2021 at 2:05 AM, Yale Stewart said:

Hey everyone. I know this probably isn't the most popular topic of conversation, but I've been really worried about how prices have utterly exploded over the past two years. I've been fortunate enough to be able to put together a near complete run of Vol. 1 of ASM, but I sold my copy of #1 back in 2011 thinking surely 1.8-2.0 books would stay within the $2000-4000 range for at least the next ten years. Little did I expect that 1.5s would be fetching nearly $10,000 in ten years' time. Basically, I'm trying to figure out if I should be in scramble mode and try to get one now while it's still within my budget--at the very, very, very top end of it--before it creeps even further out of my price range, or does anyone think prices may settle back down a little bit at some point? Obviously no one can predict the future, but any guidance or insight would be super appreciated. I'm just a collector trying to make it in an investor's world.

Get it now while it's still in your budget, it will 100% creep even further out of your price range if you do not.

[EastEnd1]

We've seen this pattern before... when CGC first opened shop around 2000 and the prices of graded books rose to jaw-dropping levels.  Only difference is that with that market, EVERY graded book skyrocketed, including run books.  I'd expect a similar pattern of retreat with this market as happened then: generally speaking, moderns/copper will drop significantly... silver/bronze lesser keys will drop moderately... silver/bronze mega-keys (like Amaz Spid #1) will drop somewhat (say 10-20%), then stabilize and begin a slow more sustainable upward climb again.  You can already see this happening in the current market.  So I'd agree that the mega-keys have most likely left the station and the pre-pandemic prices are gone for good.  One other thing to keep in mind is that auction prices are notoriously lowest in the fourth quarter and tend to pick up again in the new year (around feb/march)... guess it's all those bonus checks and tax refunds coming in. 

[comicginger1789]

I think books that had no business getting as high as they did will definitely drop a fair bit (and already have).

I think books that have always been coveted and desired will dip oh so slightly and level off. A new floor has been set for these books. In other words, I think a 1.5-2.5 ASM 1 will continue to cost 10K or better. Not a book I see dipping below that mark. 

Edited November 18, 2021 by comicginger1789

[WolverineX]

Yes, there will be a correction.  Big keys will dip less.

Stupid sport cards "new money" keys will drop faster and harder.... some of those crazy "key" books shilled by the sports card people were insane and have taken a huge dump. 

Edited November 18, 2021 by Wolverinex

[MAR1979]

On 11/18/2021 at 4:18 AM, Ken Aldred said:

A correction’s more feasible. I’d be surprised if it fell to a level that makes me interested in participating again.

A correction is already in progress to large degree. Look at prices of books from April/May then Aug/Sept compared to now.  For NON hot-book de jour and NON Blue chips it is already occurring especially high census POP. In fact even some keys are dropping when high POP's exist - example Star Wars 1.  BTW it's same situation in Trading Cards

Take ASM 300 9.8 (non newsstand as at moment newsstand is hot) how much less than just 2-3 months ago. ASM316 9.8 was 2k in April, it seems to now have stabilized at 1-1.2k but as much as it pains me to say as I just got mine back from CGC, not sure how long it will hold onto the 1.1/1.2K. Then ASM 361 was what like 1.2-1.4k earlier this year now struggling to hold on to the $600-$700 range. She-Hulk 1 was 1.8K for Direct Sale for a month or two this year now down to $900-1K . many other examples which is why I say only a rube will pay $5K for ASM 194.

I would doubt that Blue Chips will fall anywhere near their pre-COVID levels, however no one can predict that. The only thing that can be said with certainty is the larger the bubble the larger the bubble's burst. When bulk of the "buy the number on the slab social media crowd" exits the hobby after getting fi$cally burned no one can predict the fallout. Its not if, but when and they have very short attention spans.

IMHO Higher Pop post 1975 Sell Now, Buy Later.  Of course since I do not do the former, I can only practice the later.

 

Edited November 18, 2021 by MAR1979

[shadroch]

Who owns copies of Spiderman 1? I think it is mostly a book that collectors own, rather than speculators. As a collector, most don't worry about a small decrease in value so their books will stay in their collections and off the market.

Who owns books like Hulk 181, WWBN 32 and NM98?  In these cases, I believe a lot of them are owned by speculators and investors.  For these people, a 20% downward movement may cause them to sell, adding more books to an already weakening market , creating buying opportunities for some. 

With prices as they are today, I'm not buying anything for the longterm, just books I can quickly flip for a few bucks.

[WolverineX]

On 11/18/2021 at 9:47 AM, shadroch said:

Who owns copies of Spiderman 1? I think it is mostly a book that collectors own, rather than speculators. As a collector, most don't worry about a small decrease in value so their books will stay in their collections and off the market.

Who owns books like Hulk 181, WWBN 32 and NM98?  In these cases, I believe a lot of them are owned by speculators and investors.  For these people, a 20% downward movement may cause them to sell, adding more books to an already weakening market , creating buying opportunities for some. 

With prices as they are today, I'm not buying anything for the longterm, just books I can quickly flip for a few bucks.

Good thought.

Honestly, most speculators have gone into the NFT world.  It's the wild wild west.  I'm loving watching the insanity.

A walt Disney golden Moment , started at 333.  Went up to 1k and now a week later is a 12k NFT.  Incredible.

[MAR1979]

On 11/18/2021 at 9:49 AM, Wolverinex said:

Good thought.

Honestly, most speculators have gone into the NFT world.  It's the wild wild west.  I'm loving watching the insanity.

A walt Disney golden Moment , started at 333.  Went up to 1k and now a week later is a 12k NFT.  Incredible.

Like with most schemes a few slick operators make large bank the rest lose. Lot of folks already burned by NFT's since Jan. Yes Wild West applies and the real Wild West lasted a lot less time than people realize.

Edited November 18, 2021 by MAR1979

[valiantman]

I feel like the "regular person test" will apply, when we look back on the markets of the past year or two (comics, sportscards, NFTs, etc.).

Can you explain to a "regular person" what was purchased?

"I spent $10,000 on a complete copy of the first issue of Spider-Man in his own title from almost 60 years ago."

vs.

"I spent $10,000 on a cover variant that was very limited for a Spider-Man issue from 10 years ago even though the issue is nothing special."

vs.

"I spent $10,000 on a beautiful rookie card for Michael Jordan from 35 years ago."

vs. 

"I spent $10,000 on a limited edition purple prizm refracting die-cut rookie card for a player who is just getting started."

vs.

"I spent $10,000 on a digital image of a bored monkey that looks like other digital images of a bored monkey but mine's unique (like all the others)."

 

Now, what do you think the "regular person" would do if they needed to rank those investments?  Answers will vary, and many people would disagree with all of these options, but just a few regular people's answers on ranking them would probably give you a pretty good idea of what market is going to dip and what is going to hold.

(Then, as a fun follow-up question, ask how far they think each one could fall.)

Edited November 18, 2021 by valiantman

[BigLeagueCHEW]

On 11/17/2021 at 11:20 PM, ExNihilo said:

 

I think they ease in a bit 

[WolverineX]

It's funny because I feel like people were weirded out by crypto 10 years ago.  And now a lot of crypto people are weirded out by nfts.

I love nfts.  I'm not speculating in it yet because I don't understand the market enough but I've taken the time to learn how to make them.  I've looked into Defi (decentralized finance) .  Meme tokens.  Just craziness and I love it.  To each their own.   

[Robot Man]

Crypto is apparently here to stay. On Christmas Day, Staples Center in LA where the Lakers, Clippers and Kings play, will now be known as the Crypto.com Center. While they don’t own it, they have a 20 year option on the name.

People are pizzed here. We refer to it as “The house that Kobe built”. It pretty much is a landmark here. 

At least nobody has defiled Dodger Stadium yet...