Will Prices Drop Back Down? 3 3

[alexgross.com]

@Yale Stewartif there's a giant global economic disaster like in 08-09, prices should drop a good amount for a bit. i guess you could hold out hope for that to happen. but the damage to the rest of your investments probably would outweigh the savings you get on a few comics. 

[Yale Stewart]

@alexgross.comYeah, I'd rather not see the world fall apart just to get a cheap copy, but as far as "other investments" go, that's not a thing for me, as I don't have any. I'm just a guy who likes to make, read, and collect comics

[FormerReader]

On 11/18/2021 at 4:01 PM, Poekaymon said:

I mean, last year's Black Swan event lasted a few months and by the end of the year we were at fresh all time highs in the market.  Anyway, you've made a bold prediction of under $4k in 5 years.  I'll take the over on that.  

I can’t see it dropping any where near that far, but I have to agree it is way over priced.

[badback83]

I have never and will never understand the people that will yell from the highest hill that they hope a crash happens and everything tanks so they can buy the books they want.  I know I hope that doesn’t happen.  Yes, I love my books.  Yes, I have been fortunate enough to own books that have appreciated tremendously over the last 10 years.  And, yes I am happy that any “investment” I’ve made in buying comics has worked out.  But no, I never want to see this stuff tank.  Sure, corrections here and there happen.  It’s natural.  But if the day comes where you can buy a Hulk 1 for 500 bucks, I think we have a lot more serious issues happening than just comic book pricing.  
 

But honestly, it just sounds like sour grapes to me when people gripe that they can’t afford a key anymore.  They can’t afford what someone else has so they want it to tank.

[Laszlo the Mudjar]

On 11/18/2021 at 4:01 PM, Poekaymon said:

I mean, last year's Black Swan event lasted a few months and by the end of the year we were at fresh all time highs in the market.  Anyway, you've made a bold prediction of under $4k in 5 years.  I'll take the over on that.  

Yeah, difference is in that case Big Government flooded the world with helicopter money.  Just look at the joke above about "blow & hookers".  Most likely not too far from the truth.  I think the next event will collapse the stock market bubble and seriously hurt people's perception of their wealth.  That'll be a different type of swan.  Unfortunately for some the party can keep going for a long time and make the bubble even bigger.  Anyways, that guess and a fiver will get you coffee at Starbucks.

 

Aaa, I'm just pissed 'cuz I sold some stuff too early. 

[Vixom]

On 11/18/2021 at 2:49 PM, Laszlo the Mudjar said:

New boardie, old time collector . . . just one anonymous guy's random opinion so don't no one go get their panties in a wad.  Here's XM 1 in a 4.5 going back to 2003.  Hit new highs 4 years in a row now without a pullback.  To me that's a bubble if I ever saw one, and I predict sub-$4k within 5 years when the next financial Black Swan takes down the global economy and cash becomes king.  If you're hating me now just wait 'cuz if I'm still around in 5 years and this proves way off you get to jump up and down and point your fingers while laughing.

I hope you are wrong. I think to get under 4k would take war, a virus, a solar flare, or something drastic. Until 2021 the book went up because of sustainable reasons. Worst case all of the new money bails and real collectors and amateur speculators come in at their price point. I don't believe that price point will be under 6k. Doubt it will be under 8. 

[Laszlo the Mudjar]

On 11/18/2021 at 5:13 PM, Thisisrequired said:

I hope you are wrong. I think to get under 4k would take war, a virus, a solar flare, or something drastic. Until 2021 the book went up because of sustainable reasons. Worst case all of the new money bails and real collectors and amateur speculators come in at their price point. I don't believe that price point will be under 6k. Doubt it will be under 8. 

Yep.  The million dollar question is how many real "collectors" are out there that will still be buying when prices have been falling by a large margin.  There are more than 5000 copies of X-Men #1 graded by CGC and lord knows how many are left in the RAW.  Are there enough collectors who don't already own a copy to justify paying $4k for a 4.5?  I asked my Magic 8 Ball and it said not only no but heck no, but my Magic 8 Ball seems to be broken of late so I wouldn't put any credence in it's predictive ability.

Edited November 18, 2021 by Laszlo the Mudjar

[Vixom]

On 11/18/2021 at 4:10 PM, alexgross.com said:

@Yale Stewartif there's a giant global economic disaster like in 08-09, prices should drop a good amount for a bit. i guess you could hold out hope for that to happen. but the damage to the rest of your investments probably would outweigh the savings you get on a few comics. 

08 09 was the best year record sales ever at that point for comic dealers and shops. 

[Vixom]

On 11/18/2021 at 4:29 PM, DocHoppus182 said:

I have never and will never understand the people that will yell from the highest hill that they hope a crash happens and everything tanks so they can buy the books they want.  I know I hope that doesn’t happen.  Yes, I love my books.  Yes, I have been fortunate enough to own books that have appreciated tremendously over the last 10 years.  And, yes I am happy that any “investment” I’ve made in buying comics has worked out.  But no, I never want to see this stuff tank.  Sure, corrections here and there happen.  It’s natural.  But if the day comes where you can buy a Hulk 1 for 500 bucks, I think we have a lot more serious issues happening than just comic book pricing.  
 

But honestly, it just sounds like sour grapes to me when people gripe that they can’t afford a key anymore.  They can’t afford what someone else has so they want it to tank.

Prices tanked pretty good spring 2020 so where were they then? 

[Terry JSA]

I’m going to keep this short and simple. Prices will ease and correct themselves as time goes on but will books drop back down to pre-pandemic prices? Absolutely not. 

Edited November 18, 2021 by Terry JSA

[Vixom]

On 11/18/2021 at 5:22 PM, Laszlo the Mudjar said:

Yep.  The million dollar question is how many real "collectors" are out there that will still be buying when prices have been falling by a large margin.  There are more than 5000 copies of X-Men #1 graded by CGC and lord knows how many are left in the RAW.  Are there enough collectors who don't already own a copy to justify paying $4k for a 4.5?  I asked my Magic 8 Ball and it said not only no but heck no, but my Magic 8 Ball seems to be broken of late so I wouldn't put any credence in it's predictive ability.

There was enough collectors in 2018 to hike the price up when disney bought them. Gotta get my copy now before it gets out of hand. I promise you under normal circumstances it won't get under 4k. At that price point I will buy every copy and I know plenty of people who won't let me get it cheaper and will most likely be in at 5 and 6 if not higher. Collectors and dealers aren't needed though. I believe there are plenty of speculators out there that believe they could buy it for 10 grand and it will instantly become 15 or 20 grand when the x-men trailer comes out.

[Yale Stewart]

On 11/18/2021 at 4:33 PM, Terry JSA said:

I’m going to keep this short and simple. Prices will ease and correct themselves as time goes on but will books drop back down to pre-pandemic prices? Absolutely not. 

Which is essentially what I was asking. I don't think I made that clear in my initial post. I've no illusions that I'll be able to buy back my 1.8 ASM 1 for the $2000 I sold it for, but I'd hope that maybe prices are a little inflated at the moment and maybe there'll be a bit of a pull-back.

[badback83]

On 11/18/2021 at 5:26 PM, Thisisrequired said:

Prices tanked pretty good spring 2020 so where were they then? 

I know people who “bought the dip” as they realized that a lot were panic selling.  Of course, I don’t know one person wishing for a crash that bought much during that time.

[KCOComics]

On 11/18/2021 at 8:56 PM, DocHoppus182 said:

I know people who “bought the dip” as they realized that a lot were panic selling.  Of course, I don’t know one person wishing for a crash that bought much during that time.

I wouldn't say anyone is hoping for an outright crash, but these prices for big keys can be discouraging. 

If you've been collecting for a long time and decided an AF15 was your grail and had hopes to get it. At $15k for a 2.5, it would be a significant investment and maybe you had planned to sell some books and save a bit, but it was still in your atmosphere even if very expensive. 

To watch it go from $15k to $30k seemingly overnight puts it in a different atmosphere. 

So I have empathy for the long time collectors watching books they've always wanted get out of reach.  And while I'm not hoping for a crash, i wouldn't be upset to see an AF15 drop back to $10k per point.... But I'm not holding my breath. 

[badback83]

On 11/18/2021 at 9:25 PM, KCOComics said:

I wouldn't say anyone is hoping for an outright crash, but these prices for big keys can be discouraging. 

If you've been collecting for a long time and decided an AF15 was your grail and had hopes to get it. At $15k for a 2.5, it would be a significant investment and maybe you had planned to sell some books and save a bit, but it was still in your atmosphere even if very expensive. 

To watch it go from $15k to $30k seemingly overnight puts it in a different atmosphere. 

So I have empathy for the long time collectors watching books they've always wanted get out of reach.  And while I'm not hoping for a crash, i wouldn't be upset to see an AF15 drop back to $10k per point.... But I'm not holding my breath. 

I understand what you’re saying.  I’ll use your example of AF 15, which directly impacted my collecting this year.  For the better part of 15 years, it was always just out of reach for me.  Sure, I could’ve unloaded a ton of books at any given time and gotten one.  Early this year I decided it was time.  I knew that if I didn’t get it now, I never would.  I had to turn over a nice stack of books, X-Men 1 being one of them.  Turns out, I made the right choice.  Yeah, it’s a beater and I’m sure a lot of people would turn their nose up at my copy, but at least I have one.  At what point do you say, well, I waited too long, this one’s on me.  I missed the boat.  I’ve been collecting seriously for about 15 years now.  I almost missed the boat.  I have missed the boat on a lot of books I would’ve liked to own.  
 

But, I do disagree with you on this, I WOULD say there are some, especially here that are wishing for a crash.  At least they’ve stated so.  Maybe they’re just talking out of their rear end?

[KCOComics]

On 11/18/2021 at 9:52 PM, DocHoppus182 said:

I understand what you’re saying.  I’ll use your example of AF 15, which directly impacted my collecting this year.  For the better part of 15 years, it was always just out of reach for me.  Sure, I could’ve unloaded a ton of books at any given time and gotten one.  Early this year I decided it was time.  I knew that if I didn’t get it now, I never would.  I had to turn over a nice stack of books, X-Men 1 being one of them.  Turns out, I made the right choice.  Yeah, it’s a beater and I’m sure a lot of people would turn their nose up at my copy, but at least I have one.  At what point do you say, well, I waited too long, this one’s on me.  I missed the boat.  I’ve been collecting seriously for about 15 years now.  I almost missed the boat.  I have missed the boat on a lot of books I would’ve liked to own.  
 

But, I do disagree with you on this, I WOULD say there are some, especially here that are wishing for a crash.  At least they’ve stated so.  Maybe they’re just talking out of their rear end?

Congrats on picking one up. 

I took the approach of getting my foot in the door for every major key years ago. So I've got them all in one form or another... A few mid grades, a few low grades, some restored books and my AF15 is missing a BC.... 

My plan was always to get in the door and upgrade, which I have slowly but surely done.  But even upgrading has gotten very pricey....  So I need to carefully pick my spots. 

And yes, I do occasionally kick myself for not acting sooner, or prioritizing some books over others, but I don't think anyone could have anticipated this kind of market growth over such a short period. 

 

[SpideyFein]

I have a great friend that I collect comics with. For years, I've been saying "Buy an AF15!" "Buy an AF15!!!" He loves the book, loves Spidey, and continually holds off. I remember I was going to get him a 3.0 for 7K, then it was him and I going back and forth when it was 15. All I have to say is be wise with your purchase, be ready to pounce like a lion, and get ready to gitty' up if you want a copy. Stop saying "I want a copy, but it's not the right time," or "I'll have to sell so many books." Trust me, all of the books are "gettable" again. Get the AF, X-Men, or whatever book you're seeking and enjoy it. Comics are supposed to be FUN!! Also, I don't see prices tanking. Like many of us that have been here, there will be ups and downs, but X-Men and Spidey are here to stay.  

[badback83]

On 11/18/2021 at 10:16 PM, KCOComics said:

Congrats on picking one up. 

I took the approach of getting my foot in the door for every major key years ago. So I've got them all in one form or another... A few mid grades, a few low grades, some restored books and my AF15 is missing a BC.... 

My plan was always to get in the door and upgrade, which I have slowly but surely done.  But even upgrading has gotten very pricey....  So I need to carefully pick my spots. 

Thank you! 
 

You and I did what a lot of collectors have done.  Found an “entry level” copy and started there.  Upgrading is fun but can be challenging now, absolutely.  I’ve definitely thought about possibly upgrading my Hulk 1, but who knows.  
 

 

[badback83]

On 11/18/2021 at 10:16 PM, KCOComics said:

And yes, I do occasionally kick myself for not acting sooner, or prioritizing some books over others, but I don't think anyone could have anticipated this kind of market growth over such a short period. 

Me too!  I try not to look back.  There’s always books you wish you would've bought or sold at any particular point.  I absolutely agree, I didn’t see the upswing coming.   

[KCOComics]

On 11/18/2021 at 10:37 PM, SpideyFein said:

I have a great friend that I collect comics with. For years, I've been saying "Buy an AF15!" "Buy an AF15!!!" He loves the book, loves Spidey, and continually holds off. I remember I was going to get him a 3.0 for 7K, then it was him and I going back and forth when it was 15. All I have to say is be wise with your purchase, be ready to pounce like a lion, and get ready to gitty' up if you want a copy. Stop saying "I want a copy, but it's not the right time," or "I'll have to sell so many books." Trust me, all of the books are "gettable" again. Get the AF, X-Men, or whatever book you're seeking and enjoy it. Comics are supposed to be FUN!! Also, I don't see prices tanking. Like many of us that have been here, there will be ups and downs, but X-Men and Spidey are here to stay.  

That's one of the lessons of collecting I try to follow.  Try to create the financial flexibility to pounce when opportunities present themselves. 

I have never regretted a book I've bought, but I've REALLY regretted the books I've walked away from. 

So I agree, sell books, save money and go after those big books.