Raw NM pricing

[COI]

This is an extention of what I was talking about on the ASM 129 thread.

 

Here's the scenario:

 

You're at a show, and you go up to a trusted dealer(someone you've dealt with successfully in the past). He's got a tough book that you've been looking for in solid NM 9.4 condition(raw). Lets forget about resto, so the book would be a late 60's/early 70's book tha's unlikely to have work done on it. Let's say a CGC 9.4 copy would go for around $400, if you can find one. This dealer knows this and is selling it raw for $350. And again, this is an extremely tough find in NM(Black cover, DC, whatever).

 

First, look at it as if you were the dealer. You know that this is a highly demanded book in this grade among your customers. You also know that there is still a large majority in the hobby that prefer non-slabbed books. So do you do as I outlined above, and try to get $350 for it, which is high for a raw copy, but close to the slabbed price? Or do you just slab it, and leave certain customers who aren't crazy about slabs in the dust?

 

Now from the buyer's perspective: Would you buy it, knowing full well it's a solid copy and that you're basically getting a CGC 9.4 without the slab? Or do you need the plastic and label to shell out the cash?

Or would you(do you) critcize the dealer for trying to get a slabbed price, for a non slabbed book.

 

And BTW, if you've checked some dealer's raw inventories recently, you'll find that prices for VF/NM or higher raw books are edging closer to slabbed prices, especially when you get to 9.4. Do you guys agree with this practice(whether you like it for your own collecting purposes or not)?

[joe_collector]

I would never buy a raw NM comic for anywhere near the price of a CGC NM 9.4.

 

CGC books are more liquid, cost money to grade, and are riskier to submit (might get a 9.2), and I would not pay all of those "CGC costs" for a raw comic. It just doesn't make sense (unless you're 110% sure it's a 9.6 and are looking to flip), no matter how hard the book is to come by,

 

'nuff said.

[g-man]

there are some dealers who sell NM raw books at above slabbed prices but i know what u mean. Dealers are asking 2 and sometimes 3 to 4x guide for raw NM sweet books. Hey they know that some collectors are takin em, slabbin em and turnin a profit and they want a piece o the pie. Who can blame em?

[joe_collector]

But do they offer a refund if that "Sweet NM 9.6" comic at 5X Guide comes back from CGC at 9.2? Nope, and that's why I inherently distrust dealers charging CGC prices for books they are reluctant to send to CGC.

 

Now I'm not a big fan of CGC books, but if I'm really wanting a NM copy of X-Men 94, why would I pay a dealer big bucks for a raw NM copy, when I can nab a nicely centered CGC 9.4 for the same amount?

 

If dealers want CGC prices, then send it to CGC. If not, then look for someone with SUCKER plastered on their forehead.

[shadroch]

If I came across a Subby 8 that was 9.4 or better I might spring for the extra bucks, but that would be an exception rather than the rule. I don't think I would patronize a dealer who made a habit out of doing this.He is taking all the rewards with none of the risks or expenses. I doubt there are more than a handful of books I would buy in these circumstances,but I would love to be able to sell like this.

[fantastic_four]

Now from the buyer's perspective: Would you buy it, knowing full well it's a solid copy and that you're basically getting a CGC 9.4 without the slab? Or do you need the plastic and label to shell out the cash?

Or would you(do you) critcize the dealer for trying to get a slabbed price, for a non slabbed book.

I'd do what I did with Harley Yee when he came to the Tyson's Corner show near me last year and I asked him the following two questions:

• Why do you sell so many of these Silver Marvels unslabbed? (answer: "You've got to keep a mix; some customers won't buy CGC")
• Can you detect restoration? ("Most of it. But I'm not as good as those CGC guys who do it all day long.")

What I bought were unslabbed copies of FF 9 (VF+), Spidey 17 (NM-), and X-Men 4 (VF/NM). I had a copy of Spidey 9 in my hand he wanted $1900 for, but I put it back. Two months later I see the Spidey 9 I put back on E-Bay from Harley in a Purple-top slab with an Apparent 9.2 grade on it and it sold for under $500 (to me ). And now I feel much less secure about the other books I bought.

 

So why was it that you wanted us to forget resto when contemplating your question? I don't see how it's possible to ignore that, because if you do, you're rolling the dice. I know your ~$400 book is a lower restoration risk than that Spidey 9, but any book over $200 could be restored since the cost of slight restoration is lower than the profit potential of selling an apparent ultra-high-grade book without disclosing the restoration.

[COI]

So why was it that you wanted us to forget resto when contemplating your question? I don't see how it's possible to ignore that, because if you do, you're rolling the dice. I know your ~$400 book is a lower restoration risk than that Spidey 9, but any book over $200 could be restored since the cost of slight restoration is lower than the profit potential of selling an apparent ultra-high-grade book without disclosing the restoration.

 

You're right, but the reason I wanted to bypass the whole resto issue for this question was because I was more concerned with opinions regarding dealers bumping up their raw prices close to their slabbed counterparts. And usually whenever a CGC VS. raw conversation comes up, the first and most obvious thing that springs up is the resto check. And while valid, I was trying to get at pricing for 1968 and newer books where the likelyhood of restoration is much less than on an ASM #9 or any other early Silver book. I personally do not buy HG raw pre-64' books much(will only buy these slabbed), and will not pay huge premiums for them.

 

Why do you sell so many of these Silver Marvels unslabbed? (answer: "You've got to keep a mix; some customers won't buy CGC")

 

THIS is my primary area of concern. When I contemplate possibly becomming a part-time dealer(beyond ocasional sales on ebay) the dilemma is how much inventory should be kept unslabbed, and how much should be slabbed. my concern with slabbing all the best stuff is that it may leave HG collectors who don't like CGC in the dust. And by doing this, a dealer can loose MANY potential customers who would have otherwise spent lots of money for HG books.

 

I guess what this really comes down to for me is that we don't know where CGC will be 10 years from now. I do buy CGC graded books of course, but I have a much larger collection of unslabbed NM(9.2-9.6) books from 1966-1973. And although I could send them all in over time, and probably make a mint, I'm very hesitant to do so at this time. The future of CGC is too uncertain, and once supplies of NM raw books start to be depleated, they become very hard to replace.

[MikeS]

Would you buy it, knowing full well it's a solid copy and that you're basically getting a CGC 9.4 without the slab? Or do you need the plastic and label to shell out the cash?

 

I still wouldn't pay the higher price for the raw comic - give me the plastic and label. There is still just enough of a possibility that it will come back as a 9.2 that I would go ahead and pay the $50 to get a slabbed copy. I understand dealers wanting a piece of the action from a possible slab and sell purchase but it is the buyer that is taking the risk of a 9.2, not the dealer at that point.

 

And BTW, if you've checked some dealer's raw inventories recently, you'll find that prices for VF/NM or higher raw books are edging closer to slabbed prices, especially when you get to 9.4. Do you guys agree with this practice(whether you like it for your own collecting purposes or not)?

 

Yeah, I've noticed the same thing. Don't like it that's for sure

[fantastic_four]

THIS is my primary area of concern. When I contemplate possibly becomming a part-time dealer(beyond ocasional sales on ebay) the dilemma is how much inventory should be kept unslabbed, and how much should be slabbed. my concern with slabbing all the best stuff is that it may leave HG collectors who don't like CGC in the dust. And by doing this, a dealer can loose MANY potential customers who would have otherwise spent lots of money for HG books.

I've got to get back to restoration to address this point--if I think the seller is a top-notch restoration detector, I'll pay the same prices as CGC books garner. If not, I'll only pay if he's reputable and guarantees a return if I find it to be restored after I get it home and get it under better lights than the average convention hall usually has. That's the only reason I bought Harley's books--he said he'd take them back if I found restoration. But actually seeing that the Spidey 9 was restored snapped me to reality a bit.

 

This has been one of my primary motivations in learning restoration detection, and it's why I proposed the forum about it. It's the main reason I signed up on this board; I was going to start my own if I hadn't found CGC's. When I first started buying vintage books, I assumed that national dealers would know how to detect restoration. I'd ask, "does this book have restoration?" I got back a "no, it's totally unrestored" on a Daredevil #1 I bought that I now know to be restored, and that rocked my collecting world.

 

Since I can count the dealers who I'd trust to spot restoration on one hand...the general answer is I wouldn't pay anywhere near the CGC price for books over $300-$400 without guarantees of returns beyond a week or two for restoration. Under those prices, I would. Most of those dealers charging those CGC prices get skipped by me.

[blowout]

Basically it comes down to this:

 

Seller takes the risk and gets it slabbed, can then sell at CGC prices. If he won't take the risk, why should the buyer?

CGC prices are based on a third party grade which takes the transaction risk away from the buyer and onto the selller. Which, speaking from the buyers side (the guy shelling out big $$$ for a high grade book) is the way it should be.

[blowout]

the dilemma is how much inventory should be kept unslabbed, and how much should be slabbed. my concern with slabbing all the best stuff is that it may leave HG collectors who don't like CGC in the dust. And by doing this, a dealer can loose MANY potential customers who would have otherwise spent lots of money for HG books.

 

I'm not entirely sure what you're argument is. The only reason to keep books unslabbed is so that you can offer them at a cheaper price to your customer. You cannot expect to sell unslabbed books for slabbed prices. There is always going to be some doubt in the buyer/seller relationship as both have something to gain/lose on the deal. Thats where CGC come in.

The buyer pays a premium for CGCs impartial advice (resto check etc) if they don't like the slab then they can just free the book when the get home.

 

[COI]

Seller takes the risk and gets it slabbed, can then sell at CGC prices. If he won't take the risk, why should the buyer?

 

Right, and I agree with you. However, from a dealer's perspective, maybe he dosen't send it in because he has a lot of clients who don't like CGC, and he wants to make this ultra high grade book fair game for all.

 

By the way the current market trends are headed, it looks as if a NM collector who dosen't like CGC is basically screwed, and will eventually have to buy slabs and possibly crack them open. This is the real problem. This may not affect a lot of posters here, but the majority of collectors are still the traditional raw buyers, and I'm sure this new trend of slabbing every NM candidate in sight will eventually force them to buy slabs.

[blowout]

This may not affect a lot of posters here, but the majority of collectors are still the traditional raw buyers, and I'm sure this new trend of slabbing every NM candidate in sight will eventually force them to buy slabs.

 

I don't think this will be a big problem with the majority of books from 1965 onwards. Its true though that a lot of pre '65 high grade books will end up in a slab. It has to be expected though after the rampant overgrading that exists in our hobby. Even from the major dealers.

[COI]

I'm not entirely sure what you're argument is. The only reason to keep books unslabbed is so that you can offer them at a cheaper price to your customer. You cannot expect to sell unslabbed books for slabbed prices. There is always going to be some doubt in the buyer/seller relationship as both have something to gain/lose on the deal. Thats where CGC come in.

 

Right....so basically EVERY NM vintage book is eventually destined for a slab, by the sounds of it. This is VERY disturbing to me. So what happens if CGC dissappears from the hobby in the future? Or what happens with a rival company?

 

I'm not disagreeing with any points. Actually, if I want to sell any solid NM books, you bet your @ss I will submit them. But that's because I have no choice. THIS is my problem. It's sad that there is no other choice for sellers, and soon, for buyers of NM books. And now that dealers are charging very high prices for VF/NM and higher raw books, it's just making the situation worse.

[COI]

So are you saying that there are, and will continue to be vast supplies of true NM from 1965 onward? How can this be if buyers will not pay premiums, and sellers will want to continue maximizing profits?

[hammer-migration]

Joe, That's just it! You just referred to the paradox and answered your own question. Not all CGC 9.4s are created equal. Send me 10 CGC 9.4 X94s and I'd probably want to keep 3 or 4 of them. The ones with great COLOR, nicely centered, no torn spine corners (which we've ALL noted on books in CGC 9.8 slabs), no date stamps, smudges, printing creases, etc. Most sellers do not afford a buyer the luxury of RETURNING a CGC 9.4 graded book and no matter how detailed a scan may be, the book is always slightly different book-in-hand when the surface features aren't hidden by scanning at 90 degrees perpendicular. You buy raw, you have that right of return. Slabbed, the book you buy is the book you keep, like it or not, unless you're dealing with a select few sellers who honor returns on Pro-graded comics, and this dilemna has nothing to do with CGC's grading. It's a dilemna based on seller's policies.

[blowout]

So are you saying that there are, and will continue to be vast supplies of true NM from 1965 onward?

 

No not vast. Come on AK don't go overboard.

Of course there will a relatively lower supply of 1965 and up HG books too, especially the keys. But these books are not THAT difficult to find in HG so don't command such a high premium in a CGC slab. There is also less chance of resto on these lower $$$ books. These factors create higher confidence in the raw market, especially at shows, where the buyer can inspect the book personally.

 

[hammer-migration]

You're 100% correct in your thinking and those thinking otherwise are NOT collecting, just gambling. I HATE gambling. I, like many others, have S**t-Luck. I own MANY slabbed books. I have duplicates on certain issues in 9.2 that look BETTER than the same book in 9.4, the non-wear "intangibles" being FAR superior on 9.0 and 9.2 finfdings than on 9.4s. It happens. People weigh color, brightness, degree of white on white cover areas, gloss, etc. as having different aspects of importance to them when grading a book OVERALL. Overstreet has always said, "Grade a book in it's entirety". Case in point, I have a CGC 9.0 of a certain Marvel Silver age issue that has a small tear in the back cover near the spine. Aside from THAT, the book is UNFLAWED and has the feel and look of 1990s comic. I have the same issue in CGC 9.4 with a dingy cover and interior art transluscence, a small date stamp on the back, some slight toning on the inside of the covers and overall a lack-lustre look by comparison to the 9.0, BUT it has no tear on the back cover. In MY mind, the 9.0 is vastly superior to the 9.4, but that's NOT what the label says. These dichotomies happen with grading no matter WHO is doing the grading and no matter how high their level of expertise may be.

[sfilosa]

As a newbie to these forums, but a long time off and on collector maybe I can bring a fresh perspective. I have always stop collecting comics for one reason; I GOT SICK AND TIRED OF OVERGRADED (OR RESTORED) BOOKS SOLD TO ME BY SO CALLED REPUTABLE DEALERS.

 

While CGC is not perfect, it is way better than having nothing.

 

Therefore, I will not buy any book over $50 unless it is slabbed.

 

Trust me, you would be surprised how many 70's books worth $25 in guide have minor color touches. I sold at conventions in the 70's (I was 13 at the time) and even then people were touching up books.

 

Also, a lot more books are trimmed then one would suspect.

 

[Aman619]

Amen! I find it very hard to seriously consider buying an unslabbed "high-grade looking" book from a dealer known to dabble in CGC books. My key question is "Why isnt this copy slabbed???" SInce its clear that today a slabbed book sell for far more than unslabbed---there is a high probability that there is a hidden flaw with the book.

 

It could have restoration, it could have been broken out.

There's just no way Mr. On top of the Market Top Dealer leaves money on the table like that. Agreed?