Financial Issues or More Inventory? 2 2

[batman_fan]

On 7/6/2022 at 11:49 AM, CGC Mike said:

Not here.  I just escorted her to the door.

Hey Mike, did CGC issue you a taser in the event someone gets unruly?

[Rick2you2]

On 7/6/2022 at 1:49 PM, CGC Mike said:

Not here.  I just escorted her to the door.

👍

[Rick2you2]

On 7/6/2022 at 2:43 PM, batman_fan said:

Hey Mike, did CGC issue you a taser in the event someone gets unruly?

Phantom Zone projector, I expect.

[tth2]

On 7/6/2022 at 8:28 AM, delekkerste said:

As someone who is more active in trading cards than art these days, I can tell you that liquidity has just evaporated in the blink of an eye in the low-to-medium end of the card market. Prices have taken another turn lower over the past couple of months, on top of already having tanked from their Q1 2021 peak. Most of the card market - which had been molten in 2020, blowing comics and OA away in some cases by hundreds or even thousands of percent gains - peaked at that time, the same time that many of the hottest disruptive growth stocks (e.g., Zoom Communications, Palantir, Teladoc, etc.) hit their all-time highs (Narrator: never to be seen again).

What's perhaps more ominous, though, is that the high/ultra-high end of the card market - where supply is more limited and prices are (much) higher, making it more comparable to high-end comics and original art - has finally started to roll over as well in recent weeks/months. You can't expect to vaporize tens of trillions of dollars of (paper) wealth globally and not expect it to have an impact on just about everything. 

The longer this downturn in the markets and economy (it's readily apparent that we are probably in a technical recession already) lasts, the harder it will be for the ever-dwindling number of holdouts (e.g., certain real estate markets and segments of the art/collectibles market) to not share in the pain.  

Isn't the explanation for this as simple as sports card speculators are a bunch of backward baseball cap-wearing cretins?

[Xatari]

My guess is we have one more really great auction run on Heritage before pieces start going back into black hole collections. No one with choice pieces is going to want to sell if they think they will get more in a stronger market down the road. Ironically, this lack of supply will be the thing that pushes prices back up. 

[Rick2you2]

On 7/7/2022 at 2:57 AM, Xatari said:

My guess is we have one more really great auction run on Heritage before pieces start going back into black hole collections. No one with choice pieces is going to want to sell if they think they will get more in a stronger market down the road. Ironically, this lack of supply will be the thing that pushes prices back up. 

Following up on the OP, anyone notice some softness in lesser quality pieces besides Hockeyflow33? I think I’ve seen some lately, as well, at least up to a few thousand $. 

As Xatari mentioned, we may see fewer great pieces come up. But, if people’s excess cash flow is down, the winning prices, at least in the short run, should drop,too. Then the question becomes whether there will be a snowball effect on longer-term pricing, a drop in actual sales with fixed “sticky” pricing (which I think is more likely), or no effect. Since there don’t seem to be a lot of people who depend on art sales for their livelihood, they are under no particular pressure most of the time to sell. So, we may see more sales stagnation than price reductions (and lesser quality pieces coming up for auction).

[Timely]

A page from Superboy 153 by Brown and Wood just sold for $5760 last night in HA. No softness there!

[Guest Race]

On 7/7/2022 at 7:38 AM, Timely said:

A page from Superboy 153 by Brown and Wood just sold for $5760 last night in HA. No softness there!

It's a great page but a complete outlier on price when you look at prior HA sales... more likely reflects two deep pocket bidders who really wanted it. JR JR Typhoid Mary DD pages come to mind...

[vodou]

On 7/7/2022 at 2:57 AM, Xatari said:

My guess is we have one more really great auction run on Heritage before pieces start going back into black hole collections.

The current "risk" landscape in various financial sectors comined with the mixed-bad showing at the last HA Signature lead me to the same conclusion - "quality" that isn't already locked in the pipeline will get pulled back in.

On 7/7/2022 at 2:57 AM, Xatari said:

Ironically, this lack of supply will be the thing that pushes prices back up. 

Yes and the dearth of new comps at lower levels won't happen, also supportive of keeping private deals moving and bringing everything back faster too.

On 7/7/2022 at 7:08 AM, Rick2you2 said:

Following up on the OP, anyone notice some softness in lesser quality pieces besides Hockeyflow33?

Yes.

On 7/7/2022 at 7:08 AM, Rick2you2 said:

But, if people’s excess cash flow is down, the winning prices, at least in the short run, should drop,too. Then the question becomes whether there will be a snowball effect on longer-term pricing, a drop in actual sales with fixed “sticky” pricing (which I think is more likely), or no effect.

No. Top end cash flow isn't necessarily down, it's just being pulled back from 'the margin' for new spending. Middle and lower cash flow hasn't been hit yet but...

On 7/7/2022 at 7:08 AM, Rick2you2 said:

Since there don’t seem to be a lot of people who depend on art sales for their livelihood, they are under no particular pressure most of the time to sell. So, we may see more sales stagnation than price reductions (and lesser quality pieces coming up for auction).

First, yes, then as hiring freezes and larger layoffs take hold in the high five and six figure income strata...and the leverage that was piled on the last two years continues to produce monthly minimum servicing...the stock/flow of middle/lower art dynamic can/will change as "depend on..." changes. In crude terms: if the choice is food/shelter or art, guess which goes out the door first? Again, I don't think the top end will experience this, they're top for a reason: smart and risk adverse, same folks that sold flat when Dow failed 37,000 and (hopefully!) even flipped short. The middle and bottom...uh oh

Nonetheless, the pressure should come off some areas of the financial markets next spring and then we'll see the income/wealth gap widen even more, muted in North America (particularly USA) but UK/EU...there is no bottom except zero. The large asset pools that have been and will continue to escape that will further buoy some areas of US risk. Including the stuff we all love here  

[kbmcvay]

On 7/7/2022 at 8:13 AM, Race said:

It's a great page but a complete outlier on price when you look at prior HA sales... more likely reflects two deep pocket bidders who really wanted it. JR JR Typhoid Mary DD pages come to mind...

Those Typhoid Mary pages are crazy. The cover to her first appearance was sold by Albert Moy about 10 years ago for I think $8,500.

[Hockeyflow33]

On 7/7/2022 at 7:08 AM, Rick2you2 said:

Following up on the OP, anyone notice some softness in lesser quality pieces besides Hockeyflow33? 

 

We prefer that you call them "affordable" haha

[Rick2you2]

On 7/7/2022 at 10:05 AM, Hockeyflow33 said:

We prefer that you call them "affordable" haha

You are quite right. There are more than a few lower priced pieces that, in my view are higher qualitatively, but don’t carry the name brand artist.

[tth2]

Caniff Terry & The Pirates strips and other vintage comic strip OA are going through the roof.  Terry & the Pirates dailies that would've sold for $2000-3000 a year ago are now going for more than $10k.  

  

 

[Rick2you2]

On 7/7/2022 at 8:55 AM, vodou said:

The current "risk" landscape in various financial sectors comined with the mixed-bad showing at the last HA Signature lead me to the same conclusion - "quality" that isn't already locked in the pipeline will get pulled back in.

Yes and the dearth of new comps at lower levels won't happen, also supportive of keeping private deals moving and bringing everything back faster too.

Yes.

No. Top end cash flow isn't necessarily down, it's just being pulled back from 'the margin' for new spending. Middle and lower cash flow hasn't been hit yet but...

First, yes, then as hiring freezes and larger layoffs take hold in the high five and six figure income strata...and the leverage that was piled on the last two years continues to produce monthly minimum servicing...the stock/flow of middle/lower art dynamic can/will change as "depend on..." changes. In crude terms: if the choice is food/shelter or art, guess which goes out the door first? Again, I don't think the top end will experience this, they're top for a reason: smart and risk adverse, same folks that sold flat when Dow failed 37,000 and (hopefully!) even flipped short. The middle and bottom...uh oh

Nonetheless, the pressure should come off some areas of the financial markets next spring and then we'll see the income/wealth gap widen even more, muted in North America (particularly USA) but UK/EU...there is no bottom except zero. The large asset pools that have been and will continue to escape that will further buoy some areas of US risk. Including the stuff we all love here  

I wish you wrote a bit slower. This is hard to follow. If I am reading it correctly, I think top end pricing will stay as it is, but things won’t necessarily be sold much at that level (unless there is a “psst… have I got a special deal for you, but only because you’re an old friend” sort of pricing structure behind the formal one). I see the markets talking themselves into a bear market which is only partially justified, and it will definitely affect either pricing or availability of art in the middle/lower ranges. Europe is in real trouble, facing a severe recession now that their gas supplier is turning the screws. No Ms. Merkel, of course you did nothing wrong by subjecting Germany’s economy to the Bear. That means the European art market is likely to get hit with a shock, and Milo Manera for everyone! 

[vodou]

On 7/7/2022 at 6:26 PM, Rick2you2 said:

I think top end pricing will stay as it is, but things won’t necessarily be sold much at that level (unless there is a “psst… have I got a special deal for you, but only because you’re an old friend” sort of pricing structure behind the formal one).

Not as much "quality" will be consigned, publicly, unreserved.

On 7/7/2022 at 6:26 PM, Rick2you2 said:

I see the markets talking themselves into a bear market which is only partially justified, and it will definitely affect either pricing or availability of art in the middle/lower ranges.

Nothing to do with markets, everything to do with the economy broadly, to the point that black hole collections of lesser material will open to make ends meet. Middle Class folks generally don't have A+++ material anymore, they sold it way too early and couldn't afford/justify buying back in much higher, before even "much higher" looked like a great deal. They are permanently left behind with some or a lot of lesser art on hand instead, and now they will need to tap into that. This isn't just a 2022/23 thing either, it will continue for a decade, it will all come out of the woodwork - to make ends meet.

On 7/7/2022 at 6:26 PM, Rick2you2 said:

Europe is in real trouble, facing a severe recession now that their gas supplier is turning the screws.

Absolutely nothing to do with The Bear, that's an effect not a cause, and everything to do with debt denominated in USD, where rates are now rising and USD is only getting scarcer because of it. This is making USD expensive and EUR/GBP cheap, which only makes paying debt back in USD even harder. Further, the ECB going officially negative rates (NIRP) as policy nearly 10 years ago has made nothing better, and ruined their debt markets and pension funds permanently. Next comes war.

On 7/7/2022 at 6:26 PM, Rick2you2 said:

That means the European art market is likely to get hit with a shock, and Milo Manera for everyone! 

Not really, though everything denominated in euros is 20% cheaper this year over last for USD holders simply on the forex move.

[John E.]

On 7/7/2022 at 6:08 AM, Rick2you2 said:

Following up on the OP, anyone notice some softness in lesser quality pieces besides Hockeyflow33?

In the last Wednesday’s HA auction, I did notice some smaller pieces that I was tracking not end as high as I predicted. However, I liken this to what I often hear on the market segment of news radio: “The stock is down 40% from its 2020-2021 highs; but still up 80% from its 2019 peak.”

[cstojano]

On 7/7/2022 at 3:26 PM, Rick2you2 said:

I wish you wrote a bit slower. This is hard to follow. If I am reading it correctly, I think top end pricing will stay as it is, but things won’t necessarily be sold much at that level (unless there is a “psst… have I got a special deal for you, but only because you’re an old friend” sort of pricing structure behind the formal one). I see the markets talking themselves into a bear market which is only partially justified, and it will definitely affect either pricing or availability of art in the middle/lower ranges. Europe is in real trouble, facing a severe recession now that their gas supplier is turning the screws. No Ms. Merkel, of course you did nothing wrong by subjecting Germany’s economy to the Bear. That means the European art market is likely to get hit with a shock, and Milo Manera for everyone! 

I can't comment on the financial discussion going on here. But I can say in looking at the art, size and estimates in this catalog I can never fully believe anyone understands the European art market.

https://issuu.com/artcurialbpt/docs/m1096?e=6268161/12789934

[Rick2you2]

On 7/8/2022 at 1:44 PM, cstojano said:

I can't comment on the financial discussion going on here. But I can say in looking at the art, size and estimates in this catalog I can never fully believe anyone understands the European art market.

https://issuu.com/artcurialbpt/docs/m1096?e=6268161/12789934

Don’t look at me on that one about European Art, but I do like Mondrian. The artist’s work in the posted book has a nice raw quality to it, but I am not too impressed with a fair number of scenes—too pedestrian in some cases, too bizarre in others.

We’ve already been scolded that some of our economics debate is too political, although I think it is directly relevant to market pricing. So, I am trying to avoid a major debate. Vodou is more pessimistic about the future than I am, overall, and I’m more concerned with supply shortages than debt in Europe as a force which will drive it into a deep recession (thereby lowering art prices). 

[comix4fun]

On 7/6/2022 at 7:28 AM, delekkerste said:

 

What's perhaps more ominous, though, is that the high/ultra-high end of the card market - where supply is more limited and prices are (much) higher, making it more comparable to high-end comics and original art - has finally started to roll over as well in recent weeks/months. You can't expect to vaporize tens of trillions of dollars of (paper) wealth globally and not expect it to have an impact on just about everything. 

 

On general principle, and seeing some of what has gone into the ultra-high-end of the card market making some of those HUGE moves on some cards (along with some of the players)...most of them newer cards, manufactured in their rarity and desirability, and carrying along the same card-speculator blood in the water pimp-n-pump that's destroyed the card market 3 times in the last three decades...I refuse to see a direct analog. 

If the comic or comic art market gets soft it will do so on its own metrics as I just see too much disparity when I really compare the markets and those enmeshed in them. 
 

Edited July 9, 2022 by comix4fun

[comix4fun]

On 7/7/2022 at 7:13 AM, Race said:

It's a great page but a complete outlier on price when you look at prior HA sales... more likely reflects two deep pocket bidders who really wanted it. JR JR Typhoid Mary DD pages come to mind...

Both crazy high auction sales on JRJR/Williamson DD are from DD 261. Doesn't feel like a coincidence that the sales are both from the same issue. There's a story there.