High Grade Hoarding

[greggy]

[Bugaboo-migration]

Shaddup.

 

Mouse always gets the shaft.

[PedigreeMan]

(Trying to swing this Titanic away from the iceberg and back on course ... probably going to fail, but what the heck!)

 

can you post a link to that article? it seems it will clear up the question once and for all if Chuck actualy said that.

 

CBG doesn't post their old articles online, so someone will have to track down the issue in question. Like I said, it was mentioned around the time the Thor #156 was graded 10.0 (December 2001?).

 

Al

[awe4one]

I remember the article also but don't remember numbers of MHII issues being mention. Do you remember if they broke out other issues?

 

 

Jim

[PedigreeMan]

I remember the article also but don't remember numbers of MHII issues being mention. Do you remember if they broke out other issues?

 

I don't remember any numbers on other books being mentioned. The quantity of CM #13s was used rather anecdotally to give an indication of the absurd size of the collection.

 

Al

[sfilosa]

To throw my two cents in:

 

I remember seeing Silver Age Warehouse copies (my guess is that these were the MH2) 13 years ago. In general, these books were not NM by todays stardards. The ones I remember seeing were more like VF-VF/NM and they weren't newstand fresh. While you would think a book sitting in a box for 20 years would still look new, just think of the Gaines File Copies. Not all have fresh white pages, and a lot actually have cream backcovers (not bright white like you would expect). And he took them right off the press.

 

Also, do you really believe that all 1.7 million books were bagged and boarded immediately? Probably not. Also, that was over 15 years ago and I'm sure most of these books have been absorbed by the marketplace.

 

Here's a non-factual analysis, but it might help calm fears that there are 1,000 of NM MH2 books of every issue.

 

1) Start with the premise that there were 1,700,000 books.

 

2) Assume a total of 100 different titles were included (I have no idea but that doesn't sound unreasonable if all the books were Marvel or DC)

 

Divide 100 into 1,700,000 which equals 17,000 per title.

 

3) Now assume the time span for MH2 books are from 1966-1980 which is actually 15 years. Assume that the average title run was 50 issues (obviously some were much greater but some were much shorter).

 

Divide the 17,000 per title by 50 issues.

 

You get 340 possible high grade copies of each issue.

 

Based on this analysis, it would be foolish to think that every issue of every Marvel and DC book published from 1966-1980 has 1,000's of high grade copies from the MH2 collection out there especially when you realize that some of the issues had thousands of copies which would then mean some issues only had a few copies or even none.

 

 

On the other hand, I did say on another thread that CGC NM copies seemed to have factored in 10 years of increase. Also, based on real analysis, using the 2003 Overstreet guide values, NM Silverage Marvels seem to be selling for 3.5 times guide while NM- sells for 1.7 times NM guide and VF/NM sell for .9 times NM guide.

 

The spread just seems off to me. Especially when you realize that NM, NM- and VF/NM are all very nice books and that some VF/NM look as good as NM.

 

Just my two cents.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Realize, most Silver Age and early Bronze Age books were not NM when they were

[joe_collector]

I'll say one thing, the Bronze MH2 issues I've seen have been strict NM or higher. I've also seen viewed Silver Age that range from VF ro NM, so it might have been age-based attrition taking its toll.

 

One thing's for sure, MH2 represents a bigger threat to outlandish CGC Bronze prices than it does the 1965-68 Silver Age books, but nothing is potentially immune if it was in the collection in bulk.

[murph0]

The bronze MH2 I have are anything but NM. Only about 4 of the 18 bronze MH2's I have could be considered NM. Btw, here's directly from Chuck..

 

I'm sorry, but I need to keep the information about which Marvel had so many copies secret. I still own several thousand copies of that book, and I wouldn't want the demand to dry up because word got around that I have so many copies. I can tell you, however, that it was not an issue of ASM.

 

All the best!

 

Chuck

 

So there you have it, we can continue to guess but evidentally it's not ASM.

 

Brian

[joe_collector]

Then you must have been buying the runts of the litter murph.

[Rickdogg]

I had a MTU #15 CGC 9.4 OW which was from the MH2 "pedigree." Chromium-man (Bryan Good) also has a MTU #53 CGC 9.6 MH2 that he bought off of ebay raw as a NM

 

 

[murph0]

Doubtful, this was back in the early 90's when it was "still selling strong".

 

Brian

[joe_collector]

If you bought the books in the early-90's, then you did get the runts. All the good stuff was picked out by dealers in the 1970's, who bought large quantities and then returned the less-than NM copies to Chuck.

 

Some of these MH2 issues are spectacular and I'd bet make up a nice percentage of all CGC 9.4-and up CGC Bronze keys.

[ninanina]

Re: "the only thing keeping it alive is the comic book movie"

 

I thought I'd point out there are several things that are "keeping it (comic collecting) alive.

 

David H. Sincere of Sincere Comics wrote in his market report, so he gets the credit. He sees the market break down into four sectors.

 

(1) collectors that want high CGC graded books and are willing to pay the price.

(2) the reader collector who keeps his books or just want lower grade copies to read.

(3) the sellers who buy and re-sell for a profit on e-bay

(4) the collectors who want a decent mid-range book and are willing to spend a bit over guide to have them.

 

I've personally noticed in your "negs" that they mostly revolve around the CGC market. It's collapse is something that I agree with to a degree?

 

Sometimes I feel you come across like nobody is going to want CGC comics anymore, the reader collector won't want lower grade copies anymore, buyers won't be buying comics to re-sell on e-bay anymore and the collectors who want a decent mid-range book, won't want them anymore, hence the huge devaluation of comics in general. I don't think you're looking past the CGC collapse.

 

When you start looking at all the different scenarios on how the hobby can and will change in the future, a total collapse is only one of dozens of different things that could happen. So what are the odds? I'd say about a 1 in 30 chance. And only because if CGC books are not hot in the future, something else will be.

 

So what will be hot when and if there is a total collapse in the CGC market?

 

Why not restored books, or mid-grades, or pre-unity valiants, or war comics, or westerns, or bronze-age, or manga, or 80's books, or Very Fines, or just maybe something new that we have yet to see.

 

As I said before, you're prediction while possible, is but one possibility. So, maybe it won't happen.

 

When all these hi-grade silver age comics come out of the closet, it will drop Silver Age prices. Didn't happen. Lot of the hi-grade stuff turned out to be VG's.

 

After the collapse of the early 90's, there is little to expect in the way of a positive future in the industry. Didn't happen because of CGC and e-bay.

 

With the new comics code authority, people will stop buying comics. Didn't happen - people still bought.

 

There ya' go.

 

Now you predict a total collapse, and I say it won't happen because comics will become a worldwide collecting phenomonum, phomonamen,phemomomum ... a worldwide collecting craze.

 

Come on, ya' gotta admit... it could happen. Just like the total collapse could happen. Hmmmmmmmmmmm?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[murph0]

Interesting as I also came up with the key bronze issues from ASM from that collection. All NM 9.4 so unless he had better bronze MH2's...

 

Brian

[COI]

When you start looking at all the different scenarios on how the hobby can and will change in the future, a total collapse is only one of dozens of different things that could happen. So what are the odds? I'd say about a 1 in 30 chance. And only because if CGC books are not hot in the future, something else will be.

 

I get what your saying, but the term "total collapse" should not be used lightly. I believe a "total collapse" is inevitable, but it won't happen anytime soon.

 

What will happen in the next 5 years will be a huge shake-up, starting in the late-bronze and modern slabbed market. Slabs will be flooded with new NM/MT material, and may speculators will be left dissillusioned. Does this sound familiar? Can you think of another time where this happened to modern buyers? That's right, the early 90's. Half of the reason that X Men #1, Spiderman #1 and Superman #75 sold huge numbers were because of the speculative nature of that time. Now I acknoledge that current books will not crash AS badly as those did, simply because of the significantly lower print runs, but there will be a crash. Do you think that the guy who paid $750 for his ASM #301 in 9.8 will ever recoup that money? Not likely, so I hope he bought it for himself. I shudder to think of how many poor souls shelled out Hundreds for Asm 36's in 9.9 or USM 1 white covers for $500-$1000, believing their were "investing". There will be a huge fallout among these speculators eventually, and they will take their money(or what's left)and walk, leaving the modern market flat.

 

Non-key bronze age will follow a similar fate, just not as severe.

 

But perhaps the people that will be hit hardest are the "label collectors". I'm going to be starting a thread about that shortly.

[ninanina]

Can't see how this Bronze / Modern collapse would effect me personally if that's all that's going to happen. I have pretty much stayed away from hi-grades CGC in any era, be it Silver or Bronze Age. But I do agree with what you predict 'cause like you, I've been down this road before.

 

Looks like the mid-range stuff (Fine - Very Fine) has a pretty good future.

[Smokinghawk]

I think what I'm gonna do is start spreading the word online that it's a Hulk 181 in NM, at over 1,500 copies in the MH2 collection. I mean, I'm gonna blab this out to EVERYONE, under as many digfferent aliases as I can.

 

Then the price is down to $10 a pop, I'll hoard them.

 

Then I'll go "Just kidding!"

 

(I *really* want a hulk 181, but I can't afford it and be a good daddy at the same time...)