Newsstand vs Direct: Clarity (and maybe less misinformation) Needed 4 4

[Lazyboy]

On 3/23/2023 at 3:58 PM, paqart said:

One thing that enhances the experience is how you mention eBay but I didn't. 

Because I already know where you get your irrelevant data. And yes, I know it's very slightly more than just feeBay.

On 3/23/2023 at 3:58 PM, paqart said:

Funny thing about quantifying survival rates is that there is a way. More than that, it's not the only way. I do it all day long, so do others on this board. The fact you don't like it doesn't change the reality that it can be done and is done. Maybe not 100% accurately but that is always the case with estimates. Again, your commentary brings a smile to my face sometimes, like now.

Not even 1% accurately, so no, there is not a way to do it. Give a number and then show me even a single shred of proof of that number. Actual proof.

On 3/23/2023 at 3:58 PM, paqart said:

You mention Chuck in a context that is unrelated to my post. Kind of like you just cut and paste ready-made answers, regardless what you are responding to. I do not treat his numbers "as gospel". My post criticized the fact that his pricing structure is weighted heavily toward rarity, without incorporating other factors. Still, nice try at writing something related to the post you are responding to. Maybe you are responding to a different post?

No, I was responding to the "while information about print runs, or estimates of them, are interesting" part of what I quoted. You were suggesting that numbers other than whatever you want are not relevant, but you're wrong.

On 3/23/2023 at 3:58 PM, paqart said:

"Not enough data to make claims". That doesn't stop anyone from trying

No kidding. That's the problem!

[Lazyboy]

On 3/23/2023 at 4:46 PM, Topnotchman said:

Went to a small show last year in "No Where Iowa", guy had a booth of all newsstands comics from around 1991-1995.  Multiple copies of almost everything Marvel DC and Archie, collection was around 20K books and came out of a guys house a few months before.   I asked a few questions to narrow down where these were coming from.  Anything you see about newsstand returns is completely false, a very low number of books have actually been destroyed when it says returns.  I've asked enough questions in my travels to know the majority of newsstand returns were not destroyed going back to the late Silver Age.  Back door newsstand returns have been a staple source of material for back issue comic dealers ever since comic shows were created.  

Oh, you're in for it now.

But which one of them will be the first to respond/attack?

[Microchip]

On 3/24/2023 at 8:46 AM, Topnotchman said:

Went to a small show last year in "No Where Iowa", guy had a booth of all newsstands comics from around 1991-1995.  Multiple copies of almost everything Marvel DC and Archie, collection was around 20K books and came out of a guys house a few months before.   I asked a few questions to narrow down where these were coming from.  Anything you see about newsstand returns is completely false, a very low number of books have actually been destroyed when it says returns.  I've asked enough questions in my travels to know the majority of newsstand returns were not destroyed going back to the late Silver Age.  Back door newsstand returns have been a staple source of material for back issue comic dealers ever since comic shows were created.  

How many back door dealers do you think were doing this?   All off them?   How many dealers vs shops do you think existed, 1 to 1, 1 to 5, 1 to 10, 1 to 100, or 1 to 1,000 ?

I can just pick up the feint sound of a tiny violin playing in the background.

 

Edited March 23, 2023 by Microchip

[Microchip]

On 3/24/2023 at 7:07 AM, paqart said:

The problem with moderns is that many of them haven't been around long enough for the characters or first appearances they contain to emerge as important. Some have, like the first Winter Soldier, UF4, Red Hulk, and a few others. Those are the NS comics that have the potential to be worth much more than MH is charging, while most of the rest should be priced far lower.

 

Thats a big driver for examination of NS, as we we've seen first hand with UF4 as the sole modern standout book.  we're very early in the evolution here.   The numbers stack up in terms of scarcity, but the market in the broader sense, is yet to see defined pricing of the books. 

Looking at the changes on the slab notation will be a critical impact.  back again, that will have a time frame attached to it before we see critical impact on pricing.   

 

On 3/24/2023 at 7:07 AM, paqart said:

Another problem with NS comics is that, unlike CPVs, there are so many more comics that are rare because of the NS distinction. Speaking of which, I couldn't care less about hoards. Why? Because I can buy and sell a comic before any hoards affect prices. Why waste timing worrying about something that may never happen, or won't happen at a time that affects you?

 CPV's have the advantage as being defined as a single 'variant' for each issue.   NS rarities will have to wade through the mire or variants for issues, and questions on relative scarcity to those issues.     Though could NS be a standout in the market?

[paqart]

On 3/23/2023 at 9:29 PM, Microchip said:

Thats a big driver for examination of NS, as we we've seen first hand with UF4 as the sole modern standout book.  we're very early in the evolution here.   The numbers stack up in terms of scarcity, but the market in the broader sense, is yet to see defined pricing of the books. 

Looking at the changes on the slab notation will be a critical impact.  back again, that will have a time frame attached to it before we see critical impact on pricing.   

 

 CPV's have the advantage as being defined as a single 'variant' for each issue.   NS rarities will have to wade through the mire or variants for issues, and questions on relative scarcity to those issues.     Though could NS be a standout in the market?

They are for me. The reason might seem ridiculous but I'll tell you anyway. When I was a kid, I was in the habit of visiting every used book store, magazine shop, 7-11, garage sale, comic shop, drug store, and any other place that had or might have comics. I'd beg my mom to drive me to these places or I'd get there by bike, or spend the afternoon riding the bus. I did it because every location had a different selection. There was no such thing as one stop shopping. That was part of the fun of collecting. I never knew what I would find at any of these places.

Today, thanks to the Internet, you can buy almost anything without leaving your house. Although you can buy newsstands that way, the selection is so sparse that it is very hard to find certain issues. For this reason, hunting newsstands online and elsewhere reproduces the feeling of exploration and discovery I once had as a kid. If I walked into a store and saw an Avengers #8 hanging on the wall, or found an X-Men #75, or a Neal Adams Detective Comics or Green Lantern at a garage sale, that was very exciting. Today, I can buy any of those in ten minutes or less without making any serious effort. 

Newsstand comics are totally different. It took a year to purchase an NS Hulk #1 (2008). It was the second one I'd found but I lost the first auction, then got it the second time around several months later. My set of NS Old Man Logan comics from Wolverine took over a year to find though one needs a condition upgrade.

Because there is gameplay value in collecting newsstands, I don't buy directs at all unless they are thrown in for free as part of a group. My NS Hulk #1 for instance, came with a direct copy of the same comic in 9.8 condition. I didn't even notice until the comics came in the mail. From my point of view, I was buying the NS copy, and that's it. That exact scenario has happened dozens of times, which is why I have a few boxes of directs that I want to get rid of.

I doubt I am the only person who enjoys this aspect of NS collecting. It is not just a different UPC code. It's like a secret rare Pokemon card randomly distributed in small quantities across the country.

[paqart]

On 3/23/2023 at 5:43 PM, Lazyboy said:

Because I already know where you get your irrelevant data. And yes, I know it's very slightly more than just feeBay.

Not even 1% accurately, so no, there is not a way to do it. Give a number and then show me even a single shred of proof of that number. Actual proof.

No, I was responding to the "while information about print runs, or estimates of them, are interesting" part of what I quoted. You were suggesting that numbers other than whatever you want are not relevant, but you're wrong.

No kidding. That's the problem!

The funny thing is, I suspect you've never sat for a doctoral examination. I have. I do understand the difference between relevant and irrelevant data. When sampling anything, one wants to do some preliminary research to determine which methodology is most likely to provide the needed information. For instance, if studying arctic temperature changes, one should not place thermometers beside outdoor machinery because the heat they generate affects the temperature readings.

At the same time, one must also be aware of practical considerations. For instance, if one were to do an anthropological study of changing attitudes toward women's sports, it would not be possible to interview people in the past, particularly when seeking data from time periods so remote that there are no living people from those times. Another problem is that you couldn't trust that anything such a witness said today accurately reflected their attitudes in 1938. Instead, one would look for a different kind of data, such as diary entries, newspaper stories, budgets for the athletics departments in schools, or other sources.

After determining the source, then quantity becomes important. How many samples are needed to produce a convincing result? One or two wouldn't be enough but it would be impossible to investigate every possible source. For that reason, one should determine how many samples are sufficient to credibly answer your question. Telephone surveys designed to gauge reactions to news stories tend to sample between 1,000 to 10,000 calls, depending on the stories and methodology employed. Once you go above about 2,500 samples, the statistical validity doesn't change much by adding more samples for political surveys. 

To recap, you need 1) noise-free data (to the extent possible), 2) a logistically practical method, and 3) sufficient sample size

From those three things, many scientifically valid estimates are generated, for everything from cell development speed to the origin of tribal masks.

As it applies to the rarity of newsstand comics in the marketplace, or "marketplace availability", there are a number of potential sources. Print run numbers of any kind, whether full run, direct only, distributed to comic stores only, orders from retailers, the amount of paper used by Western Printing in Poughkeepsie, NY, or other sources, are useful because they place limits on what the real numbers can be. They may not tell us what the numbers are but they can provide a guide to what the numbers cannot be. By narrowing the possibilities, much diagnostic value is obtained. This can be used to check other data, to see if it conforms to limits imposed by data related to print run quantities.

Comic book "returns" are useful because they provide information on minimum numbers of comics printed, presumably newsstands, because no other type of comic is returned. That said, any proper researcher would seek to establish that as a fact before assuming this is true. My understanding is that returns of newsstand edition comics are the bulk of all returns but there were reasons to return direct editions also, such as due to damage in shipping or an excess number of comics, or the wrong comics, delivered.

None of the data sources discussed so far tell us anything about newsstand comics in the marketplace. All they do is establish limits that we should expect any marketplace sample to fit within. If it doesn't, it would call into question the sample. Keep in mind that this only applies to numbers that exceed what is deemed possible. It does not apply to values below the maximum possible. They might seem high or low but if they are within established boundaries, they are possible.

Now we can talk about the "marketplace". What is the marketplace? It has to be defined. My definition is that the comic book marketplace is any venue where comic book sales are conducted. This includes comic book stores, garage sales, flea market, trash diving at the dump, online retailers, auction sites, physical auctions, estate sales and other places but not private sales. The reason I exclude private sales is that these are not generically accessible to collectors. Private hoards of comics, or any other comics that are not for sale, are not part of the marketplace. When they are sold, then they may become part of the marketplace but until then, they aren't. If one wanted to estimate the future impact of such hoards, that would be a different study.

How should one go about sampling the marketplace? Physical locations are by definition geographically distant from any given researcher and from each other. This creates a logistical problem. Depending on the importance of the study, an investigator could procure a grant of half a million dollars or so to obtain samples in every state in a given week from as many comic book stores, antique shops, Goodwills, garage sales, and country auctions. Without a generous grant to do something like that, an investigator could consider making telephone calls. The problem with that is it requires 1) knowing who to call, 2) the person answering the phone, 3) the person is capable of answering the question, 4) the person is willing to do the legwork for you to answer the question. This method, though less expensive, is overly complex and would miss significant portions of the physical marketplace.

Another way is to perform a local sample by oneself over a period of months. This would entail exploring potential newsstand comic book sources within a range of 30-100 miles from one's home. It may not perfectly reflect the country but it is unlikely to vary a great deal from a national average if it is possible to gather enough samples. What is a "sample"? Is it a newsstand comic or a location from which the comic was found (or not found)? In this case, we are not seeking to discover the relative scarcity of newsstand comics at garage sales or comic book stores, but in the marketplace as a whole. Therefore, the "sample" is the individual comic, not the source.

Now we know that the best way to derive a sample group of sufficient size is to find the places that have the largest stock of comics, preferably randomized. That is, with no bias for newsstand or direct editions. That rules out comic book stores as a source because they deal in direct editions almost exclusively. It also rules out places like Barnes and Noble and Books a Million because they deal in newsstands exclusively. Both are too biased to derive a meaningful number related to marketplace availability. They can tell us something about minimum numbers at the time of publication but that isn't our question. Our research question is, "what is the approximate ratio of newsstand to direct edition comics in the marketplace today?"

Keep in mind that you do not want to pollute your study by allowing yourself to become distracted by other questions. It may be true hoards are out there that could change the ratios for the study under discussion here but that is a different, and hypothetical, question.

Another problem with physical sources is that they do not have enough comics. For instance, let's say you have a dealer with 250,000 comics in his store. Let's say that 50,000 of those comics postdate the newssstand era. Now he has 200,000 comics. That sounds like a big number but it isn't. The reason is that we aren't looking for how many newsstand editions are found in that group of 200,000 comics. It is how many newsstands and how many directs of specific issues are found in that group. That is the problem. If that dealer had 2,000 newsstand and 198,000 directs from the newsstand era, then you have a 1:100 ratio of newsstand to direct availability. However, if most of the newsstands come from the same collection walked into the store five years ago, then you are most likely looking at one newsstand edition of each issue in the collection vs. any quantity of directs for the same title. This tells us nothing more than that newsstand editions exist for certain issues but not what their incidence is.

When I did my admittedly informal check of newsstand availability in my region, I found the following:

1) Alien Brain (comic book store, Rhinebeck, NY): A small selection of comics overall (10,000 at the most). Of those, about 75 post 1995 newsstands. Most were low interest titles or in poor condition. Specializes in high interest SA consignment items.

2) Antiques Mart (Rhinebeck, NY): A grand total of 5 comics, all GA, all in poor condition, and all overpriced

3) Junk shop, Kingston, NY: About 200 SA remaindered comics, with the title block ripped off of their cover

4) Crazy Andy's Flea Market, Poughkeepsie, NY (every weekend during the summer, between 2018-2021): 4 out of 5 weekends there were no sellers with comics. On the 1 in 5 weekends comics were present, they were usually in small quantities (less than 20). If it was the weekend version of a traveling antique store, they might have between 2-6 short boxes of mostly badly damaged comics. Once, I found someone selling his bronze/copper collection, about 15 long boxes worth. Out of all the outings put together, I found only one newsstand of note, an ASM V2 #25. Overall, I found that newsstand comics were rare in this setting, not enough to reliably find any given issue.

5) Miscellaneous garage sales: Either no newsstands at all, or a small number of them dating from the 1980's and early 1990's.

6) Alterniverse (Poughkeepsie): An excellent comic book store overall with a large selection of back issues. However, the number of newsstands available at any given time is less than 1% of the comics in inventory and most are from 1995 or earlier.

7) New York Comic Con, 2019 and 2020 (NYC): Several dealers had slabbed NS copies of Thor #337, ASM #252, and Wolverine #1. Beyond those three comics, many dollar bins yielded low level NS issues. A few dealers had medium interest NS editions and were savvy to their rarity. The problem with doing a sample at this convention is the amount of time it takes to find the comics. It is a physically taxing job to lift each comic out of the box to see the UPC and then drop it back in again. On top of that, the yield was too spotty to be valid. If a convention were used as a sample, one way to make the data useful is to go in with a list of ten specific comics and then count only those. I would sample Thor 337, ASM 252 and Wolverine #1, but would also sample ASM 611, UF4, Wolverine 66, Catwoman #1, any of the New 52 comics, and Daredevil 111. I have a feeling if I did that, I would have one or two hits in total for the last six comics and a dozen each for the first three. That isn't enough to be valid for the research question asked here.

8) Heritage Auctions: Heritage has an easy to use interface and is much easier to use than searching dollar bins but they have a pronounced bias that favors high grade comics with well-established value. That makes it difficult to make a meaningful sample of most of the comics of interest here. They will have a selection of UF4's, ASM 300's, and other comics like that but little else.

9) Incredicon 2020/2021/2022 (Connecticut): Same problem as NYCC.

10) Miscellaneous small local conventions (about 6 of these): Same problem as NYCC except for one, held in a shopping mall. A man there had a hoard that probably came from a Barnes and Noble or similar store. He had about 300 NM newsstands, Marvel and DC, most of which were duplicates and all published in the same 3 month period. This outlier example does not typify the physical marketplace and could not provide any meaningful information. In that case, the venue is the sample, meaning 50 or more venues like it would have to be sampled to yield a statistically valid result.

11) HipComic: I thought HipComic might turn into a good resource for sampling newsstands until I discovered that NewKadia, one of their largest sellers, did not differentiate between newsstand and directs. They used photos of either interchangeably, making it impossible to know which of their comics was newsstand. Because they represented such a large volume of comics, they managed to sway the counts significantly. MileHigh is another volume seller on that platform but they seem biased in favor of newsstands. That also skews results.

12) Other online except eBay: too small or difficult interface slows searches to impractical speed.

13) eBay: eBay is the clear winner for making a comparison of newsstand/direct availability. Why? Because they not only have both, they have very large quantities of comics traded every day. One can search almost any issue or variant and find it at any time of day, often in many multiples. Their sample covers the entire world, though listings are concentrated in North America, the UK, and other English-speaking countries. I used the Dutch eBay when I lived in Europe but comics there were mostly European. If I wanted to find the NS Daredevil 111 at any of the other venues, and I tried, it wouldn't be found because it wasn't there. On eBay, it can be found though it takes effort and not on any given day. At the same time, I can see how many direct editions are available.

14) CGC census: Did not differentiate most newsstands until recently, causing numbers to be artificially low. 

Now, I realize you don't like eBay, hence the juvenile nickname "FeeBay" that you prefer to use. However, you have given no valid reason to think they are a poor resource for this question, nor any adequate alternative.

Edited March 24, 2023 by paqart

[Microchip]

On 3/24/2023 at 2:52 PM, paqart said:

1) Alien Brain (comic book store, Rhinebeck, NY): A small selection of comics overall (10,000 at the most). Of those, about 75 post 1995 newsstands. Most were low interest titles or in poor condition. Specializes in high interest SA consignment items.

2) Antiques Mart (Rhinebeck, NY): A grand total of 5 comics, all GA, all in poor condition, and all overpriced

3) Junk shop, Kingston, NY: About 200 SA remaindered comics, with the title block ripped off of their cover

4) Crazy Andy's Flea Market, Poughkeepsie, NY (every weekend during the summer, between 2018-2021): 4 out of 5 weekends there were no sellers with comics. On the 1 in 5 weekends comics were present, they were usually in small quantities (less than 20). If it was the weekend version of a traveling antique store, they might have between 2-6 short boxes of mostly badly damaged comics. Once, I found someone selling his bronze/copper collection, about 15 long boxes worth. Out of all the outings put together, I found only one newsstand of note, an ASM V2 #25. Overall, I found that newsstand comics were rare in this setting, not enough to reliably find any given issue.

5) Miscellaneous garage sales: Either no newsstands at all, or a small number of them dating from the 1980's and early 1990's.

6) Alterniverse (Poughkeepsie): An excellent comic book store overall with a large selection of back issues. However, the number of newsstands available at any given time is less than 1% of the comics in inventory and most are from 1995 or earlier.

7) New York Comic Con, 2019 and 2020 (NYC): Several dealers had slabbed NS copies of Thor #337, ASM #252, and Wolverine #1. Beyond those three comics, many dollar bins yielded low level NS issues. A few dealers had medium interest NS editions and were savvy to their rarity. The problem with doing a sample at this convention is the amount of time it takes to find the comics. It is a physically taxing job to lift each comic out of the box to see the UPC and then drop it back in again. On top of that, the yield was too spotty to be valid. If a convention were used as a sample, one way to make the data useful is to go in with a list of ten specific comics and then count only those. I would sample Thor 337, ASM 252 and Wolverine #1, but would also sample ASM 611, UF4, Wolverine 66, Catwoman #1, any of the New 52 comics, and Daredevil 111. I have a feeling if I did that, I would have one or two hits in total for the last six comics and a dozen each for the first three. That isn't enough to be valid for the research question asked here.

8) Heritage Auctions: Heritage has an easy to use interface and is much easier to use than searching dollar bins but they have a pronounced bias that favors high grade comics with well-established value. That makes it difficult to make a meaningful sample of most of the comics of interest here. They will have a selection of UF4's, ASM 300's, and other comics like that but little else.

9) Incredicon 2020/2021/2022 (Connecticut): Same problem as NYCC.

10) Miscellaneous small local conventions (about 6 of these): Same problem as NYCC except for one, held in a shopping mall. A man there had a hoard that probably came from a Barnes and Noble or similar store. He had about 300 NM newsstands, Marvel and DC, most of which were duplicates and all published in the same 3 month period. This outlier example does not typify the physical marketplace and could not provide any meaningful information. In that case, the venue is the sample, meaning 50 or more venues like it would have to be sampled to yield a statistically valid result.

11) HipComic: I thought HipComic might turn into a good resource for sampling newsstands until I discovered that NewKadia, one of their largest sellers, did not differentiate between newsstand and directs. They used photos of either interchangeably, making it impossible to know which of their comics was newsstand. Because they represented such a large volume of comics, they managed to sway the counts significantly. MileHigh is another volume seller on that platform but they seem biased in favor of newsstands. That also skews results.

12) Other online except eBay: too small or difficult interface slows searches to impractical speed.

13) eBay: eBay is the clear winner for making a comparison of newsstand/direct availability. Why? Because they not only have both, they have very large quantities of comics traded every day. One can search almost any issue or variant and find it at any time of day, often in many multiples. Their sample covers the entire world, though listings are concentrated in North America, the UK, and other English-speaking countries. I used the Dutch eBay when I lived in Europe but comics there were mostly European. If I wanted to find the NS Daredevil 111 at any of the other venues, and I tried, it wouldn't be found because it wasn't there. On eBay, it can be found though it takes effort and not on any given day. At the same time, I can see how many direct editions are available.

14) CGC census: Did not differentiate most newsstands until recently, causing numbers to be artificially low. 

It's quite obvious at this point.

1.  Big foot has a large NS collection, all the nay-sayers know this to be true.

2. The Lockness monster has been hoarding return books for decades.   The only issue is arguing with Chuck on the name of the collection before bringing the trove of NS books to the market.

3. All the basement dwelling collectors have shunned their LCS for the endless reprints of graphic novels offered year after year at the local bookshop.   Scooping up multiples of NS issues along the way.   They're just waiting for the Gladstone relaunch tiltes to go stratospheric before bringing their books to market.

Edited March 24, 2023 by Microchip

[Lazyboy]

On 3/23/2023 at 10:52 PM, paqart said:

The funny thing is, I suspect you've never sat for a doctoral examination. I have. I do understand the difference between relevant and irrelevant data.

Do you understand bias? Do you understand how the entire comics market is generally biased? Because it's a very real thing.

I'm not saying specific Newsstands are really easy to find. I am saying that they do pop up all over the place and what is available varies wildly by time and venue. The same is true for many Direct editions that aren't from super common top titles.

Still, none of that tells us anything about total extant copies. I realize this post I'm responding to was not specifically about survival rates, but I am still waiting for that proof.

On 3/23/2023 at 10:52 PM, paqart said:

Now, I realize you don't like eBay, hence the juvenile nickname "FeeBay" that you prefer to use. However, you have given no valid reason to think they are a poor resource for this question, nor any adequate alternative.

I do it for two reasons. Yes, because it sucks, but mostly because of the affiliate-link-replacement -script on the boards.

[comicwiz]

On 3/23/2023 at 11:52 PM, paqart said:

juvenile nickname "FeeBay" that you prefer to use

Just to be clear, I use that myself. It's because these boards use a scripting source that sends referrer traffic to feeBay whenever someone types the actual correct name. I loathe this scripting tactic, I'd prefer instead that the only time a hyperlink is formed is by intent, not because some board software wants to participate in some affiliate marketing scheme, and forces it's community members to take part in it by creating these links whenever the name is mentioned.

Edited March 24, 2023 by comicwiz

[valiantman]

A (very large) bag of marbles contains an infinite number of marbles. Someone has stated that 5% of them are blue and 95% are red. How many marbles need to be drawn to have 99% confidence that between 3% to 7% are blue and between 93% to 97% are red?

The scientific mathematical answer is 791. https://www.calculator.net/sample-size-calculator.html?type=1&cl=99&ci=2&pp=5&ps=&x=47&y=26

The CGC message board answer is "all of the marbles (an infinite number) will need to be drawn individually, put on a table for everyone to see, and counted before we can say anything about the percentages, because otherwise, we don't know what else is in the bag, we don't know that the 791 sample isn't just all bias, or even a sample of 10,000, or even a sample of 100,000, no matter how many times the samples are taken, because red marbles might be filled with helium and so they just come to the top of the bag more often, and there's never going to be any way to know that the actual percentages are not actually closer to 50% blue and 50% red until we've counted every single (infinite) marble from the bag... therefore, no one should ever talk about any of the percentages, ever, even with 99% confidence, even in a range of percentages like 3% to 7%, or else they're a scammer who is obviously trying to rip people off, and I'm just trying to protect people because this halo over my head isn't bright enough yet."

... and that's the summary of every newsstand discussion on this board.

Edited March 24, 2023 by valiantman

[ThreeSeas]

An interesting debate. It's too bad someone here doesn't have a relative or friend that worked at one of the publishers, that has or had access to the accounting department at one of those places.

Somewhere there has to be paper records of how much was paid for how many comics being published, either at the publishers or at the printers. One day someone may buy an old warehouse with records still in it and they may say "issue xxx, 300,000 printed with the direct edition cover, 200,000 printed with the newsstand cover." I've got to think that these records exist somewhere.

Back in 1981-84 I worked at a seed company that bought a closed car dealership building that was next to their property. I was doing some cleaning work and in the basement of that dealership were all the books from their years in operation. I thumbed through some of the records and was amazed at how much in commissions these car guys were making in the 60's. I think that they listed every nut and bolt and part, plus the cars that they bought and how much they sold them for.

I've got to believe that the printing plants kept the same type of records for comics they were paid to print, and I would think that the records would all be on paper up until the last twenty years or so. Of course chances are they are all gone, but we can hope something will be discovered in the future.

[paqart]

On 3/24/2023 at 12:56 AM, Lazyboy said:

Do you understand bias? Do you understand how the entire comics market is generally biased? Because it's a very real thing.

I'm not saying specific Newsstands are really easy to find. I am saying that they do pop up all over the place and what is available varies wildly by time and venue. The same is true for many Direct editions that aren't from super common top titles.

Still, none of that tells us anything about total extant copies. I realize this post I'm responding to was not specifically about survival rates, but I am still waiting for that proof.

I do it for two reasons. Yes, because it sucks, but mostly because of the affiliate-link-replacement ---script on the boards.

RE: eBay. That --script doesn't affect any of the reasons for using eBay to sample the market. It still has a larger, more accessible inventory than any other source. Even better, it not only self-randomizes, it represents individual sellers as well as brick and mortar shops that use it also. 

RE: Samples. Your essential point, which has never been unclear, is that accurate numbers can't be known. That is true but it is also immaterial. I don't need to know the height of my roof to know I need a ladder. I don't even need to know the exact height to know what kind of ladder is likely to work. In the same way, I don't need to know a precisely accurate rarity ratio to know that Newsstands are more difficult to find in the marketplace than directs. I also can tell from an imprecise sampling approximately which comics are more rare than others.

It is reasonable that if a sample of 1,300 copies of UF4 on eBay yields zero newsstand copies, the comic is genuinely rarer than its direct edition counterparts. It is also reasonable to conclude that its actual rarity is more likely to be about 1:1,000 than 1:100 or 1:10. The reason for this could be it was printed at a 1:1,000 ratio, it was hoarded at a 1,000:1 ratio, it survived at a 1:1,000 ratio, or a combination of the three. The reason can be interesting and informative but it doesn't affect the known availability. 

What this all comes down to is, what can you get your hands on right now? Not yesterday, or we'd all have Action Comics #1, and not tomorrow, because it hasn't happened yet, but today. I have friends who actively trade on the stock market. I have some stock but don't trade. The traders have to deal with time as well as value and other factors because value changes over time. A stock can be $60/share today, $20/share tomorrow, and back to $60/share next week. Comics can do the same thing. This is why talking about hoards or other types of unavailable comics doesn't affect decisions made today. The only way it could affect the conversation is if you are exclusively concerned with the future.

A hoard that turns up on the market can affect the future price of a comic but it does not affect the present price of a comic. Therefore, buying decisions are less affected (or unaffected) by this factor. Selling decisions can be affected but that is a different question. 

The reason I don't sell stock is because I am familiar with the ebb and flow of pricing as well as its upward trend. Many of the same factors that cause a price to dive can also produce a subsequent rise. One example is the buying opportunities created by a lower price. When investors take advantage of those opportunities, the price can go up to its previous level or higher. A hoard can do the same thing. It may temporarily depress prices but that only lasts until the hoard is absorbed. At the same time, it creates buying opportunities and arouses collector interest, which drives the price up.

How else do you explain the high prices of relatively common comics, like Hulk #181 and ASM #300? The price for those is determined by demand more than rarity. What makes newsstands so appealing is that there is a newsstand edition for almost every comic published over a forty year period. Meaning, nearly every high demand comic printed in that time frame has a corresponding rare version. That is very enticing to collectors who enjoy the sport of collecting. 

That sport might be affected slightly by hoards but think about this example: The Bob Sidebottom shop in San Jose had boxes full Of Fantastic Four #1, Hulk #1, and other key Marvels. Literally 200 comics per box, each unopened, all in the best condition you can imagine. He sold them one at a time for what were high prices at the time to prevent a sudden drop in prices. Regardless, the comics were there and they did get into the hands of collectors. Do you think the large supply of those comics in that area (San Jose) made any dent in the prices we see today? Unlikely.

Edited March 24, 2023 by paqart

[paqart]

On 3/24/2023 at 12:47 PM, ThreeSeas said:

An interesting debate. It's too bad someone here doesn't have a relative or friend that worked at one of the publishers, that has or had access to the accounting department at one of those places.

Somewhere there has to be paper records of how much was paid for how many comics being published, either at the publishers or at the printers. One day someone may buy an old warehouse with records still in it and they may say "issue xxx, 300,000 printed with the direct edition cover, 200,000 printed with the newsstand cover." I've got to think that these records exist somewhere.

Back in 1981-84 I worked at a seed company that bought a closed car dealership building that was next to their property. I was doing some cleaning work and in the basement of that dealership were all the books from their years in operation. I thumbed through some of the records and was amazed at how much in commissions these car guys were making in the 60's. I think that they listed every nut and bolt and part, plus the cars that they bought and how much they sold them for.

I've got to believe that the printing plants kept the same type of records for comics they were paid to print, and I would think that the records would all be on paper up until the last twenty years or so. Of course chances are they are all gone, but we can hope something will be discovered in the future.

Yes but, as @valiantman explains, that information isn't needed to derive a statistically valid estimate.

Edited March 24, 2023 by paqart

[comicwiz]

On 3/24/2023 at 12:28 PM, valiantman said:

A (very large) bag of marbles contains an infinite number of marbles. Someone has stated that 5% of them are blue and 95% are red. How many marbles need to be drawn to have 99% confidence that between 3% to 7% are blue and between 93% to 97% are red?

The scientific mathematical answer is 791. https://www.calculator.net/sample-size-calculator.html?type=1&cl=99&ci=2&pp=5&ps=&x=47&y=26

The CGC message board answer is "all of the marbles (an infinite number) will need to be drawn individually, put on a table for everyone to see, and counted before we say anything about the percentages, because otherwise, we don't know what else is in the bag, we don't know that the 791 sample isn't just all bias, or even a sample of 10,000, or even a sample of 100,000, no matter how many times the samples are taken, and there's never going to be any way to know that the actual percentages are not actually closer to 50% blue and 50% red until we've counted every single (infinite) marble from the bag... therefore, no one should ever talk about any of the percentages, ever, even with 99% confidence, even in a range of percentages like 3% to 7%, or else they're a scammer who is obviously trying to rip people off, and I'm just trying to protect people because this halo over my head isn't bright enough yet."

... and that's the summary of every newsstand discussion on this board.

You wish this only happens with newsstand discussions

Those questioning bias are themselves the most judgemental about everything, and have already predetermined their own bias about the person, the data, the estimate, and whatever their deluded mind has told them the intent must be.

The nature of impartiality is derided here often, whether it be the self-appointed authority of a grading company, and some of that may have merit based on some of the ridiculous examples of deviating with COI as it pertains to certain promotions the company hosting these boards has been involved in, and continues to involve itself in.

It is misplaced when the person is simply using available metrics, data, and is making a determination of some manner that could be useful. Even if it's to back-up the claim that something is uncommon. In the past, I've removed myself from offering input on values for pricing guides EXACTLY for this reason. I was the person who provided the idea for a published price guide to use "highest grade sale" for one publication, but because I owned several examples, including the highest graded example of that book, I refused to offer my input on value. That metric was a huge success for that price guide, and within a few years, a member of these boards (now deceased) sold the copy he had acquired from me several years prior. It happened during a point where they had to transition a parent into long-term care, was forced to sell and in doing so, established a new price record on Heritage, so I knew I had done the right thing by letting the market determine that data point without my input.

I am currently considering an assignment on a unique specimen that's emerged in the vintage toy category. Part of the reason I was tapped was because this person began hearing the onslaught of ignoramus muppet know-nothings, that seem to crowd the category these days, and always need to inject themselves into anything that appears to be off. Even though I became accredited by being examined on everything from ethics to applying universal standard practices with the appraisal work I do, their view, as misinformed as it is, is the loudest and most objectionable in online environments, so it becomes more about having to satisfy more than just one persons requirements. And I'd like to make sure the requirement is met, especially when that person is being diligent and wants to ensure they have proper coverage in place for insurance, but sometimes the transfer of knowledge can be dangerous, because helping the loudmouth in the crowd to gather his own foot sometimes invariably emboldens bad operators taking notes for their own malevolent pursuits.

"So save it for your own and the ones you can help."

Edited March 24, 2023 by comicwiz

[valiantman]

On 3/24/2023 at 1:07 PM, comicwiz said:

On 3/24/2023 at 11:28 AM, valiantman said:

A (very large) bag of marbles contains an infinite number of marbles. Someone has stated that 5% of them are blue and 95% are red. How many marbles need to be drawn to have 99% confidence that between 3% to 7% are blue and between 93% to 97% are red?

The scientific mathematical answer is 791. https://www.calculator.net/sample-size-calculator.html?type=1&cl=99&ci=2&pp=5&ps=&x=47&y=26

The CGC message board answer is "all of the marbles (an infinite number) will need to be drawn individually, put on a table for everyone to see, and counted before we say anything about the percentages, because otherwise, we don't know what else is in the bag, we don't know that the 791 sample isn't just all bias, or even a sample of 10,000, or even a sample of 100,000, no matter how many times the samples are taken, and there's never going to be any way to know that the actual percentages are not actually closer to 50% blue and 50% red until we've counted every single (infinite) marble from the bag... therefore, no one should ever talk about any of the percentages, ever, even with 99% confidence, even in a range of percentages like 3% to 7%, or else they're a scammer who is obviously trying to rip people off, and I'm just trying to protect people because this halo over my head isn't bright enough yet."

... and that's the summary of every newsstand discussion on this board.

You wish this only happens with newsstand discussions

No kidding. That's why I used marbles. 

Edited March 24, 2023 by valiantman

[Lazyboy]

On 3/22/2023 at 10:19 PM, Microchip said:

There's never been anything suggesting that there is a difference in the two area's.   At the scale of the numbers used, they would be highly representative.

All other counter arguments only amount to "we don't know".  That doesn't hold any water in the face of actual numbers presented. 

Here are some actual numbers presented:

12345 67890 68 5798 453 36547244537 5375 7588888 2353778890 89785346350 52752145 554 5837235752

Random gibberish? Of course not. All numbers are true and meaningful.

1393181549311 919 16120852093 2315182081251919 18520118454 198920

More very useful, absolutely not random numbers.

1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89 144 233 377 610 987 1597

Okay, these are actually something, but don't mean anything here.

100000000000

One hundred billion! (dollars?)

4815162342

At least these were on a comic book cover.

9 781632 159175 51499

Again, some connection to comics (from the bar code of a TPB that was sitting beside me).

All just as relevant to this thread as the fake numbers you love so much.

[Lazyboy]

On 3/24/2023 at 12:00 PM, paqart said:

RE: eBay. That ---script doesn't affect any of the reasons for using eBay

Of course not, but you took an unprovoked shot at me over it because, yet again, you don't understand something.

On 3/24/2023 at 12:00 PM, paqart said:

Even better, it not only self-randomizes, it represents individual sellers as well as brick and mortar shops that use it also. 

feeBay is not a random sample. Maybe it was 25 years ago. Maybe.

On 3/24/2023 at 12:00 PM, paqart said:

In the same way, I don't need to know a precisely accurate rarity ratio to know that Newsstands are more difficult to find in the marketplace than directs.

Great! Then you don't need to make up ridiculous numbers or spread ridiculous numbers made up by others! It's enough to know they're harder to find.

On 3/24/2023 at 12:00 PM, paqart said:

It is reasonable that if a sample of 1,300 copies of UF4 on eBay yields zero newsstand copies, the comic is genuinely rarer than its direct edition counterparts.

Sure, even if we didn't already realize that.

On 3/24/2023 at 12:00 PM, paqart said:

It is also reasonable to conclude that its actual rarity is more likely to be about 1:1,000 than 1:100 or 1:10.

No, it is not.

On 3/24/2023 at 12:00 PM, paqart said:

What this all comes down to is, what can you get your hands on right now?

Yeah, that matters... only if you desperately need to buy something right now and you live in a bad area where your options are limited.

On 3/24/2023 at 12:00 PM, paqart said:

A hoard that turns up on the market

I'm not really concerned about hoards surfacing. You completely missed the point that those copies simply still exist despite that fact that they shouldn't.

On 3/24/2023 at 12:00 PM, paqart said:

the high prices of relatively common comics, like Hulk #181 and ASM #300? The price for those is determined by demand more than rarity.

Prices are always determined by supply and demand. I do understand your point, but that's not an accurate way to state it.

On 3/24/2023 at 12:00 PM, paqart said:

What makes newsstands so appealing is that there is a newsstand edition for almost every comic published over a forty year period.

Well, it is definitely not almost every comic. I think it's a majority, but I'm not sure by how much. Personally, almost 15% of my collection from the dual-distribution era is Direct-only.

On 3/24/2023 at 12:00 PM, paqart said:

Meaning, nearly every high demand comic printed in that time frame has a corresponding rare version.

No, there are lots of those comics that only have a less common version, but nowhere near rare. Plus all the comics that only have one version, including quite a few with high demand.

On 3/24/2023 at 12:00 PM, paqart said:

The Bob Sidebottom shop in San Jose had boxes full Of Fantastic Four #1, Hulk #1, and other key Marvels. Literally 200 comics per box, each unopened, all in the best condition you can imagine.

Unopened boxes of SA keys? That's very interesting, mostly since comics were not distributed in boxes back then.

[valiantman]

On 3/24/2023 at 3:42 PM, Lazyboy said:

Here are some actual numbers presented:

12345 67890 68 5798 453 36547244537 5375 7588888 2353778890 89785346350 52752145 554 5837235752

Random gibberish? Of course not. All numbers are true and meaningful.

1393181549311 919 16120852093 2315182081251919 18520118454 198920

More very useful, absolutely not random numbers.

1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89 144 233 377 610 987 1597

Okay, these are actually something, but don't mean anything here.

100000000000

One hundred billion! (dollars?)

4815162342

At least these were on a comic book cover.

9 781632 159175 51499

Again, some connection to comics (from the bar code of a TPB that was sitting beside me).

All just as relevant to this thread as the fake numbers you love so much.

... and just like that, any (remaining) credibility was gone.

 

[Lazyboy]

On 3/24/2023 at 3:47 PM, valiantman said:

... and just like that, any (remaining) credibility was gone.

 

No, no. Your credibility was gone long ago. All that's left is endless proof of why.

[valiantman]

On 3/24/2023 at 3:49 PM, Lazyboy said:

No, no. Your credibility was gone long ago. All that's left is endless proof of why.

 

On 3/24/2023 at 3:42 PM, Lazyboy said:

Here are some actual numbers presented:

12345 67890 68 5798 453 36547244537 5375 7588888 2353778890 89785346350 52752145 554 5837235752

Random gibberish? Of course not. All numbers are true and meaningful.

1393181549311 919 16120852093 2315182081251919 18520118454 198920

More very useful, absolutely not random numbers.

1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89 144 233 377 610 987 1597

Okay, these are actually something, but don't mean anything here.

100000000000

One hundred billion! (dollars?)

4815162342

At least these were on a comic book cover.

9 781632 159175 51499

Again, some connection to comics (from the bar code of a TPB that was sitting beside me).

All just as relevant to this thread as the fake numbers you love so much.

Edited March 24, 2023 by valiantman