Newsstand vs Direct: Clarity (and maybe less misinformation) Needed 4 4

[Microchip]

On 3/26/2023 at 1:39 AM, valiantman said:

Keeping that line of thinking going... the "separation" of newsstand (still not being shown in the CGC Census) comes after the decade-plus wave of widespread pressing, so these lower percentages for high grade newsstands 2021-2023 might actually be a lot higher now because of pressing than what we would have seen if CGC had separated newsstand from the beginning. They're still low percentages (now), but they could have been even lower (back then).

I suspect it will follow along the lines of what we see with CPV's.   All the gravity will be around the established key books.  Even with the early modern NS issues (Spawn 1), there's a solid price breakout, and attention from the market. 

[onlyweaknesskryptonite]

On 3/22/2023 at 7:54 PM, Cat said:

It's what the 'crack!' option on polls does. Select that, and you can too can understand Addy. 

 

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On 3/22/2023 at 8:21 PM, ThothAmon said:

 

 

[valiantman]

On 3/25/2023 at 3:26 PM, Prince Namor said:

On 3/25/2023 at 9:34 AM, valiantman said:

There have been some who suggested that newsstands wouldn't necessarily be treated any more harshly than direct editions, but I think those people are basing that comment off of situations where they got first pick of newsstands from their local grocery store, drug store, magazine rack, or some other completely-uncommon situation that was "common" to them, but nothing like what the rest of us saw on newsstand books.

Putting (2,000+) numbers to it, there's consistent evidence that the higher-the-grade, the less-likely-to-find newsstand in that grade, for ASM #300, the most submitted book in CGC history.

So you were making a point.

Was anyone disputing this specifically?

Unfortunately, yes. Other discussions of newsstands (going back many years) often include statements that newsstands were treated more harshly than direct editions on average and then inevitably followed by "prove it" or "not where I bought my comics" or some other nonsense.

It's like saying "the average man is taller than the average woman" and then having someone stand on the sidelines yelling "I know a tall woman!" as if that somehow disproves the first statement.

Edited March 26, 2023 by valiantman

[paqart]

On 3/25/2023 at 10:09 PM, valiantman said:

Unfortunately, yes. Other discussions of newsstands (going back many years) often include statements that newsstands were treated more harshly than direct editions on average and then inevitably followed by "prove it" or "not where I bought my comics" or some other nonsense.

It's like saying "the average man is taller than the average woman" and then having someone stand on the sidelines yelling "I know a tall woman!" as if that somehow disproves the first statement.

Your ASM 300 chart proves this about as well as can be expected. The observations made there carry over to other issues very well, allowing predictions to be made. And this, I just realized, is what all of this discussion comes down to: making predictions.

1) Will it take more time to find the newsstand version of X comic than the direct edition?

2) If I find the newsstand edition, is it more or less likely to be in the same or better condition than the direct edition?

We know enough about newsstands to accurately predict that in most cases, it takes more time to find a newsstand than direct edition and that when found, it is unlikely to be in the same or better condition. This allows value adjustments to prices and modified buying decisions.

1) If it takes more time to find than the direct, it is worth more money to offset the effort required to find it

2) If it is generally in worse condition than the direct counterpart, the newsstand in high grade (9.2 +) is worth an additional premium

Then the issue becomes what premiums should be attached to those two factors?

My opinion, newsstand pricing should resemble the 35 cent price variant pricing. This puts the price ceiling at about 50x the cost of a direct for a high grade newsstand of a desirable issue, like UF4. On the low end, it should be about 5x the cost of a high grade direct for a less interesting or more common newsstand. The biggest difference between the two pricing systems is that there is more variability in newsstand scarcity than the 35 CPVs. However, there is much less variability for high grade copies. UF4 seems to be considerably more scarce than ASM300, meaning to me that the premium for ASM300 should be closer to the bottome end of the spectrum than the top.

What this means is that the MileHigh pricing, though it looks unnaturally high, may look like a good deal over the next few years, as collectors become more aware of these comics. Speaking for myself, the highest premium I've paid for a newsstand is about 8x the direct price, for comics that are particularly hard to find. More often the most desirable newsstands cost me around 2x-3x direct. Less desirable newsstands, or those sold by naive sellers, can be a fraction of the direct price and up to the direct price. These lower priced issues remind me of the less popular but still rare 35 cent CPVs. The prices for those seem outrageous compared to the non-CPV price ($60 instead of $5) but the prices are stable because collectors are willing to pay them.

This is an important point: as collectors become more knowledgeable about the newsstand phenomenon, their resistance to paying a premium diminishes. It could just as easily gone the other way, and likely would have, if they discovered these comics weren't so difficult to find after all. Again speaking for myself, the first newsstand I bought as a collectible because it was a newsstand was a slabbed 9.4 copy of Teen Titans 2 (first Deathstroke, a character I once pencilled for DC). At the time, I was pleased because it was a "rare" newsstand. I now know it is appears almost exactly as often as the direct edition on the market. 

Over time, I realized that the TT2 is not even close to hard to find for a newsstand, so I changed my buying habits to seek out the far more elusive issues. In the case of the TT2, the newsstand price was about the same as whatever the direct price was at the time (about $175-$200). Today, I think that price remains about right.  Pricing for almost everything after 2000 looks low to me because of the effort required to find those comics. I don't like spending $20 or $30 for a NM Raw Cliff Chiang newsstand Wonder Woman but compared to $60 for a VF Black Goliath 35 cent CPV, it seems reasonable.

I now consider the TT2 purchase acceptable because it is a fair price for what it is but that is only because it didn't have a newsstand premium. If it was Canadian and in the same condition, I think it would be worth more, something like $275-$300, because those are much harder to find than the US newsstands. The point is that the TT2 was my first sample. As such, there was ample reason to believe it did not represent the market, and it didn't. Over time, I bought more and more newsstands, "sampling" different parts of the market. 

At first, I went for keys from the 1980's like the TT2, ASM 298-316, X-Men 266, Daredevil 181, and so on. That gave me the impression that most of those comics were not worth a premium unless they were in high grade and/or they were Canadian editions. Comics from the 1990's never appealed to me, so I avoided most of them. I did get a few, and found that they tended to be undesirable, not that hard to find, and not much different condition-wise from directs (that was not true of earlier comics, where newsstands in HG seem much less common). After 2000, the only question with newsstands was if they deserved the silver, gold, platinum, or uranium price premium.

[Microchip]

On 3/27/2023 at 7:09 AM, paqart said:

What this means is that the MileHigh pricing, though it looks unnaturally high, may look like a good deal over the next few years, as collectors become more aware of these comics. Speaking for myself, the highest premium I've paid for a newsstand is about 8x the direct price, for comics that are particularly hard to find. More often the most desirable newsstands cost me around 2x-3x direct. Less desirable newsstands, or those sold by naive sellers, can be a fraction of the direct price and up to the direct price. These lower priced issues remind me of the less popular but still rare 35 cent CPVs. The prices for those seem outrageous compared to the non-CPV price ($60 instead of $5) but the prices are stable because collectors are willing to pay them.

As another issue worth thinking about.   The 5 years of CPV's encompasses some very collectible books.   While in the over scheme of ages, and key's major and minor, CPV's do include modern era "classics" -    Wolverine Limited series, Punisher Limited, all the early Venom appearances, Beta-Ray bill first appearance, etc etc.   These books are in top of the table for most subbed books.  For modern NS books, I'm thinking from the year 2000 onwards, we will need books themselves to become collectable, and desired in their own right before their NS equivalent become sought after across the broad collector spectrum.

The book itself has to collectible, and standup as 'key' of some description, before the NS copy starts accelerating in desireability.    Scarcity as a factor will come in strong, ONCE the book is sought after in its own right.   

[ADAMANTIUM]

On 3/26/2023 at 6:29 PM, Microchip said:

As another issue worth thinking about.   The 5 years of CPV's encompasses some very collectible books.   While in the over scheme of ages, and key's major and minor, CPV's do include modern era "classics" -    Wolverine Limited series, Punisher Limited, all the early Venom appearances, Beta-Ray bill first appearance, etc etc.   These books are in top of the table for most subbed books.  For modern NS books, I'm thinking from the year 2000 onwards, we will need books themselves to become collectable, and desired in their own right before their NS equivalent become sought after across the broad collector spectrum.

The book itself has to collectible, and standup as 'key' of some description, before the NS copy starts accelerating in desireability.    Scarcity as a factor will come in strong, ONCE the book is sought after in its own right.   

The trouble I find is those you listed are Marvel only, and the only one I have other than a Canadian Mark Jeweler Daredevil, is a Batman 357 or whichever number is 1st cameo killer croc...

That was a loooooooooooooooong story to say, "those" meaning dc aren't a lot either, but to your point I agree, guess I was just saying 

I'll see myself out haha, edit to say yay it is still too soon for moderns? I can see that, and will add that it's not just an excuse for newsstands to be supported now, but Before? Nobody pushed moderns not being "realized" yet or as hard, because it sounded like an excuse for newsstandsto be taken seriously, but now might be "that tipping" point but not much else other than a hope for the future.

Edited March 27, 2023 by ADAMANTIUM

[Microchip]

On 3/27/2023 at 10:48 AM, ADAMANTIUM said:

The trouble I find is those you listed are Marvel only, and the only one I have other than a Canadian Mark Jeweler Daredevil, is a Batman 357 or whichever number is 1st cameo killer croc...

That was a loooooooooooooooong story to say, "those" meaning dc aren't a lot either, but to your point I agree, guess I was just saying 

I'll see myself out haha, edit to say yay it is still too soon for moderns? I can see that, and will add that it's not just an excuse for newsstands to be supported now, but Before? Nobody pushed moderns not being "realized" yet or as hard, because it sounded like an excuse for newsstandsto be taken seriously, but now might be "that tipping" point but not much else other than a hope for the future.

Maybe it was deliberate for another reason.   DC CPV's are even rarer... 

[ADAMANTIUM]

On 3/26/2023 at 8:09 PM, Microchip said:

Maybe it was deliberate for another reason.   DC CPV's are even rarer... 

I want to believe that I really do, maybe it's just the key itself that doesn't trade hands often?

[Microchip]

On 3/27/2023 at 12:12 PM, ADAMANTIUM said:

I want to believe that I really do, maybe it's just the key itself that doesn't trade hands often?

Thats always a factor.   Prices are definitely kept flat with minimal trading.   Though there are still variables.   No one wants to see 3 copies of their sought after CPV in 9.8 in the same auction.  Yet ASM 300 can have 40 plus copies on offer in the same auction, and it doesn't hurt prices in the slightest.

Edited March 27, 2023 by Microchip

[ADAMANTIUM]

On 3/26/2023 at 8:35 PM, Microchip said:

Thats always a factor.   Prices are definitely kept flat with minimal trading.   Though there is still variables.   No one wants to see 3 copies of their sought after CPV in 9.8 in the same auction.  Yet ASM 300 can have 40 plus copies on offer in the same auction, and it doesn't hurt prices in the slightest.

In a real world, that is sobering. Knowing what I've learned about it, that is enough to be patient.

[Microchip]

On 3/27/2023 at 12:37 PM, ADAMANTIUM said:

In a real world, that is sobering. Knowing what I've learned about it, that is enough to be patient.

Agreed.

We always come back to the mantra, "collect what you like".   Trying to guess where the market will go next is a fools errand.   NS copies make a heck of a lot of sense.... but which ones in particular is the key. 

[paqart]

On 3/26/2023 at 9:41 PM, Microchip said:

Agreed.

We always come back to the mantra, "collect what you like".   Trying to guess where the market will go next is a fools errand.   NS copies make a heck of a lot of sense.... but which ones in particular is the key. 

And this is why I'm happy to fill in my collection of Chiang Wonder Womans and Cooke Catwomans.

[Prince Namor]

On 3/25/2023 at 10:09 PM, valiantman said:

Unfortunately, yes. Other discussions of newsstands (going back many years) often include statements that newsstands were treated more harshly than direct editions on average and then inevitably followed by "prove it" or "not where I bought my comics" or some other nonsense.

It's like saying "the average man is taller than the average woman" and then having someone stand on the sidelines yelling "I know a tall woman!" as if that somehow disproves the first statement.

So you were making a point, and not just putting 'numbers in a table' - which is what I was playing Devil's Advocate to... I just didn't realize your point was toward a discussion that was not being addressed in this thread, but one from... many years ago?

[valiantman]

On 3/27/2023 at 2:59 AM, Prince Namor said:

On 3/25/2023 at 9:09 PM, valiantman said:

Unfortunately, yes. Other discussions of newsstands (going back many years) often include statements that newsstands were treated more harshly than direct editions on average and then inevitably followed by "prove it" or "not where I bought my comics" or some other nonsense.

It's like saying "the average man is taller than the average woman" and then having someone stand on the sidelines yelling "I know a tall woman!" as if that somehow disproves the first statement.

So you were making a point, and not just putting 'numbers in a table' - which is what I was playing Devil's Advocate to... I just didn't realize your point was toward a discussion that was not being addressed in this thread, but one from... many years ago?

If I said that "1+2=3 and 1 is 33% of the total", and you quoted it and said "Just playing Devil's Advocate here but..." 

... it would be weird. Yes, it was weird when you played Devil's Advocate to math. I get that you're embarrassed and trying to cover.

It's not working.

Your new problem with what I posted afterwards, not in the math post, is that you think the statement I made later was just a response to something from many years ago (because I said these discussions go back many years --- which includes now), so you've decided I'm wrong (and you get points in whatever contest you're now forcing) because it's not a point that's from this thread?

Seriously?  Did you read this thread? 

On 3/21/2023 at 10:33 PM, Lazyboy said:

On 3/21/2023 at 9:20 PM, paqart said:

4) Newsstand comics were treated as garbage, literally, by most (more than 75%) of the customers who bought them up until about 1989

1.

2. Prove it

Embarrassing again... and the first thing you're embarrassed about includes where "I absolutely agree with you..." so you should have quit while you were ahead.

It's getting sad now.

Edited March 27, 2023 by valiantman

[Kramerica]

On 3/24/2023 at 5:30 PM, CGC Mike said:

This thread is becoming a daily headache for me.  I just banned 1 person from the topic.  If I am still called back to this thread, I am just going to lock it.

Accept my apologies for starting it. I did so in good faith to help bring myself up to date as I sort through multiple OO collections with newsstands from all years. I thought this thread could compile enough good information so that I could come back a week later, have some coffee. And learn a bunch. Which I did.

But I had no idea it would be used for malevolent deeds and become a threat to my quest for knowledge. So, you guys using this thread to moan are a bunch of weenies. 

[THE_BEYONDER]

The walls of text in this thread are overwhelming 

You’d think members were getting paid by the word 

Edited March 27, 2023 by THE_BEYONDER

[paqart]

On 3/27/2023 at 2:12 PM, THE_BEYONDER said:

The walls of text in this thread are overwhelming 

You’d think members were getting paid by the word 

I only get paid for my writing on politics. Writing about comics is free!

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 3/27/2023 at 3:32 PM, paqart said:

I only get paid for my writing on politics. Writing about comics is free!

How much for the coles notes?

[paqart]

On 3/27/2023 at 3:36 PM, THE_BEYONDER said:

How much for the coles notes?

I had to look that up to know what it is. Are you from Canada? In America, we call those "Cliff's Notes."

Seriously though, I'm probably the worst offender as far as lengthy posts are concerned. I'm not editing them much so they are not only wordy but can be partly redundant with earlier posts. Not that redundant information has stopped anyone else. As far as I can tell, this thread doesn't contain much information that can't be found in other threads, in posts written by the same people who post here.

For fun, and to add some new information to this thread, I just looked up the highest prices paid for newsstands on eBay. To my surprise, the most expensive was $15,000 for an ASM 252 in 9.8, signed by Stan Lee. How much is the Lee signature adding to that price, I wonder?

The next most expensive, though almost the same price, is $14,990 paid for a 9.8 Hulk 340 with a Jeweler's insert. That's two in a row from the 1980's, when newsstands are supposed to be the most plentiful. Not in 9.8 of course. Those are not easy. According to the CGC census, there are a whopping 20,660 graded copies of the US edition of ASM 252. Of those, 1,921 are in 9.8. Another eight are in 9.9. There are 678 Canadian editions, all of which are newsstand. In that group, 53 are in 9.8 condition. That doesn't seem like a small number to me, and it implies a larger number of US edition newsstands in the same condition. They don't have any "newsstand edition" version listed, so it's hard to say. The Hulk doesn't have newsstand or Canadian editions broken out. Instead, the census lists a total of 11,700 graded copies, of which 1,294 are 9.8 and 3 are 9.9. Both are normally $500-$600 comics in this grade. Why such a high price?

A slightly older sale of the ASM 252, also newsstand, 9.8, and signed by Lee, went for a more reasonable $2,325. If anything, the newsstands look more common or as common as the directs. A newsstand premium on these doesn't appear to be justified.

With the exception of Ultimate Fallout 4 ($5,000-$10,000) and Clone Wars 1, the rest of the next 56 or so comics are all from the eighties. It makes sense because those comics had time to appreciate. The newsstand premium seems odd to me because these comics aren't anywhere near as rare as later ones. After UF4, the highest price on a modern newsstand is for 2008's Hulk 1, in 9.4 condition, sold three weeks ago for $2,000 Canadian dollars ($1,453 US). The Hulk 1 newsstand is substantially less common than the direct and allother variants. The census has 58 newsstand editions and 3,834 directs, for a ratio of 66:1, which is about what I see in the market. From my point of view, the price on the Hulk 1 (2008) is easier to justify than many of the other comics, which seem to have a newsstand premium attached, though they are from the 80's.

 

 

 

 

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 3/27/2023 at 4:25 PM, paqart said:

I had to look that up to know what it is. Are you from Canada? In America, we call those "Cliff's Notes."

Seriously though, I'm probably the worst offender as far as lengthy posts are concerned. I'm not editing them much so they are not only wordy but can be partly redundant with earlier posts. Not that redundant information has stopped anyone else. As far as I can tell, this thread doesn't contain much information that can't be found in other threads, in posts written by the same people who post here.

For fun, and to add some new information to this thread, I just looked up the highest prices paid for newsstands on eBay. To my surprise, the most expensive was $15,000 for an ASM 252 in 9.8, signed by Stan Lee. How much is the Lee signature adding to that price, I wonder?

The next most expensive, though almost the same price, is $14,990 paid for a 9.8 Hulk 340 with a Jeweler's insert. That's two in a row from the 1980's, when newsstands are supposed to be the most plentiful. Not in 9.8 of course. Those are not easy. According to the CGC census, there are a whopping 20,660 graded copies of the US edition of ASM 252. Of those, 1,921 are in 9.8. Another eight are in 9.9. There are 678 Canadian editions, all of which are newsstand. In that group, 53 are in 9.8 condition. That doesn't seem like a small number to me, and it implies a larger number of US edition newsstands in the same condition. They don't have any "newsstand edition" version listed, so it's hard to say. The Hulk doesn't have newsstand or Canadian editions broken out. Instead, the census lists a total of 11,700 graded copies, of which 1,294 are 9.8 and 3 are 9.9. Both are normally $500-$600 comics in this grade. Why such a high price?

A slightly older sale of the ASM 252, also newsstand, 9.8, and signed by Lee, went for a more reasonable $2,325. If anything, the newsstands look more common or as common as the directs. A newsstand premium on these doesn't appear to be justified.

With the exception of Ultimate Fallout 4 ($5,000-$10,000) and Clone Wars 1, the rest of the next 56 or so comics are all from the eighties. It makes sense because those comics had time to appreciate. The newsstand premium seems odd to me because these comics aren't anywhere near as rare as later ones. After UF4, the highest price on a modern newsstand is for 2008's Hulk 1, in 9.4 condition, sold three weeks ago for $2,000 Canadian dollars ($1,453 US). The Hulk 1 newsstand is substantially less common than the direct and allother variants. The census has 58 newsstand editions and 3,834 directs, for a ratio of 66:1, which is about what I see in the market. From my point of view, the price on the Hulk 1 (2008) is easier to justify than many of the other comics, which seem to have a newsstand premium attached, though they are from the 80's.

 

 

 

 

You can’t respond to my request for “Cliffs” notes with another wall of text...and expect that I’m going to read it.