Heritage Nov 16-19 Signature Auction 5 5

[Xatari]

On 11/30/2023 at 11:44 AM, KirbyCollector said:

The S&P500 was 3756 on 12/31/20 and closed at 4766 on 12/31/21. I can do the math for you, if you like.

If you don't mind.  I simply ran out of fingers.

[KirbyCollector]

On 11/30/2023 at 9:00 PM, Xatari said:

If you don't mind.  I simply ran out of fingers.

26.8% gain in 2021

[Xatari]

Thanks! I was totally playing. I work for a Bank so it’s a rather ridiculous joke thrown around. The epitome of cliche.  😂 

[Rick2you2]

On 11/30/2023 at 4:10 PM, PhilipB2k17 said:

My pure layman's guess is that the stock market will generally start going up when the Fed starts reducing interest rates next year, as people seek the best returns. 

That’s the historic rule, but in this case it looks like both the market and interest rates went up. So, we may have a different dynamic at play.

[delekkerste]

On 11/30/2023 at 4:03 PM, PhilipB2k17 said:

The Market nosedived in 2021. It's taken two years to regain what it lost. 

It was 2022.  

On 11/30/2023 at 4:10 PM, PhilipB2k17 said:

My pure layman's guess is that the stock market will generally start going up when the Fed starts reducing interest rates next year, as people seek the best returns. 

On 12/1/2023 at 6:49 AM, Rick2you2 said:

That’s the historic rule, but in this case it looks like both the market and interest rates went up. So, we may have a different dynamic at play.

Usually when the Fed has to start cutting rates, earnings are on the cusp of imploding and stocks go down. If you had bought when the Fed started cutting rates, you would have gotten destroyed in the last two major bear markets.

The Fed began cutting rates on Sep. 18, 2007 - the S&P 500 topped out 3 1/2 weeks later and ultimately went down 57.8%.

The Fed began cutting rates on Jan. 3, 2001. The S&P had already started its bear market by then, but, fell another 41.4% into the October 2002 low from the point when they started cutting rates.

You sell the first rate cut and buy the last rate cut. 

Edited December 1, 2023 by delekkerste

[gumbydarnit]

opps

Edited December 1, 2023 by gumbydarnit

[PhilipB2k17]

On 11/30/2023 at 4:44 PM, KirbyCollector said:

The S&P500 was 3756 on 12/31/20 and closed at 4766 on 12/31/21. I can do the math for you, if you like.

Got my dates wrong. It was 2022. Started at 4766, ended 2022 at 3839. It is currently at 4590. So, it still hasn't regained what it lost in 2022. That's using the S&P 500 as the benchmark, of course. 

[PhilipB2k17]

On 12/1/2023 at 9:27 AM, delekkerste said:

It was 2022.  

 

Right. Got my dates wrong. I don't usually follow the market. 

[PhilipB2k17]

On 11/30/2023 at 9:47 PM, KirbyCollector said:

26.8% gain in 2021

Then all of it evaporated in 2022.

[PhilipB2k17]

The Fed raised interest rates to battle inflation. Which, as it apparently turns out, was caused by pretty strong historic economic growth. GDP was increasing about 10% on an annual basis in each of 2021 and 2022. This may be why a rate cut isn't going to presage a market sell-off. 

[vodou]

Oh. Dear.

Yet again, it won't really end until everyone loses all their money, except...

[oldwhy]

GDP was increasing about 10% on an annual basis in each of 2021 and 2022. 
 

Where did you find these numbers? 

[Rick2you2]

On 12/1/2023 at 9:27 AM, delekkerste said:

It was 2022.  

Usually when the Fed has to start cutting rates, earnings are on the cusp of imploding and stocks go down. If you had bought when the Fed started cutting rates, you would have gotten destroyed in the last two major bear markets.

The Fed began cutting rates on Sep. 18, 2007 - the S&P 500 topped out 3 1/2 weeks later and ultimately went down 57.8%.

The Fed began cutting rates on Jan. 3, 2001. The S&P had already started its bear market by then, but, fell another 41.4% into the October 2002 low from the point when they started cutting rates.

You sell the first rate cut and buy the last rate cut. 

Perhaps I’m missing something, but rates have been going up most of the year. So did the stock market. That’s atypical.

[Silver Surfer]

Historic economic growth fueled by endless printing of money. Sounds like a false economy to me. 

[vodou]

On 12/2/2023 at 6:08 AM, Rick2you2 said:

Perhaps I’m missing something, but rates have been going up most of the year. So did the stock market. That’s atypical.

False.

[Rick2you2]

On 12/4/2023 at 5:15 AM, vodou said:

False.

The Dow is up 9.3 percent since Jan. 1, 2023. On Dec. 15, 2022, the Prime rate moved up to 7.5%. It is now at 8.5%. 

[Rick2you2]

On 12/3/2023 at 6:40 PM, Silver Surfer said:

Historic economic growth fueled by endless printing of money. Sounds like a false economy to me. 

The increase in the money supply absolutely fueled inflation— but so did supply-push inflation due to the restrictive supply chain, which only really cleaned itself up this past year. One result is that the increased supply of durable goods prices showed deflation (of 2 percent as recall). With the economy slowing down a bit but still healthy, I think we’ll be in pretty good shape for the next 6 months (absent war or other major disaster).

Those extra dollars also saved us from an economic freeze up due to Covid. That could have produced a catastrophe.

[PhilipB2k17]

On 12/3/2023 at 6:40 PM, Silver Surfer said:

Historic economic growth fueled by endless printing of money. Sounds like a false economy to me. 

Says a comic art collector who is happy that his comic art probably went way up in value due to inflation -- and doesn't think that's phony or a bubble. 

[PhilipB2k17]

On 12/4/2023 at 6:21 AM, Rick2you2 said:

The increase in the money supply absolutely fueled inflation— but so did supply-push inflation due to the restrictive supply chain, which only really cleaned itself up this past year. One result is that the increased supply of durable goods prices showed deflation (of 2 percent as recall). With the economy slowing down a bit but still healthy, I think we’ll be in pretty good shape for the next 6 months (absent war or other major disaster).

Those extra dollars also saved us from an economic freeze up due to Covid. That could have produced a catastrophe.

Inflation was caused by supply chain disruptions (the chip shortage that caused a large drop in new auto production -- with thousands of vehicles sitting in lots that could not be sold without their internal logic chips-- being a prime example), a pent-up consumer spending explosion due to the pandemic, a significant labor shortage (see resulting huge pay increases for auto workers, etc), and high (historically) economic growth. We've been expanding the hell out of the money supply for 25 years, and never had inflation issues during that time. 

My pet theory on this is that the US has been artificially suppressing wage growth for 40 years (through anti-union policies and court decisions, the fed concentrating on the inflation aspect of their mandate rather than employment, and keeping the minimum wage very low, and dramatically reduced resistance to (along with favorable court decisions) leading to greater acceptance and understanding of the Affordable Care Act, which makes it easier for people to change jobs without losing health insurance coverage), and the pandemic finally blew that all up. We are seeing catch up wage growth due to a pronounced labor shortage. I think the recent clamp downs on immigration (yes, even under the current administration) have also added to wage pressure. 

Ratcheting up the fed rate isn't going to have that dramatic of an impact unless it is sustained for a long time. 

Edited December 4, 2023 by PhilipB2k17

[Silver Surfer]

On 12/4/2023 at 7:40 AM, PhilipB2k17 said:

Says a comic art collector who is happy that his comic art probably went way up in value due to inflation -- and doesn't think that's phony or a bubble. 

Tell that to the guys trying to resell those Promise collection books.