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Heritage Nov 16-19 Signature Auction
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Started by jjonahjameson11,

472 posts in this topic

Rick2you2

Rick2you2

Posted
Posted
On 11/26/2023 at 10:50 AM, vodou said:

Almost everyone that "isn't investing" writes that because what they've been buying hasn't kept up or has even lost value.

It's a justification for the contrarian that refuses to stop catching falling knives.

I wasn't investing either, the first 10 years, but then I had to justify continuing after hitting 10x ROI and not selling.

It's well known that I don't sell (nor trade) and haven't for a long time; in total I've sold less than 3% of all the art I've ever acquired.

This in spite of the value today, for the lot of it (call: 1-800-Heritage) being life changing money, by a wide factor too.

It may seem that I'm trying to pick a fight here, I'm not. I agree with large parts of both sides of the discussion, my only distinct point would be...

You can collect anything if you have extra money to blow after the bills are paid each month. Most collector-types have an interest in and collect a number of things, some are quite popular, others more niche. Okay. So buy what you love, always, but maybe lean a lot heavier into buying what others (do or will) love too. In 2023 this doesn't apply to comic art, the days for 100% of everything in your bank/saving/401k/IRA going into it...that ended about 20 years ago. What else are you into...maybe one of them is out of favor and troughing, I dunno...figure it out. There's no reason a collector can't love what they collect and benefit (mightily, even) from asset appreciation over the long run too; then the only pain would be: selling things you love for silly old money. I have a feeling that time comes for everyone that doesn't die young though, you just see more need for liquidity/money and less need for stuff all over the place and then "click", the process begins.

For all collectors, unique trumps multiples. As soon as I found wide availability of comic art (unique), I lost nearly all interest in comic books (multiples, tens of thousands). The fact that "my" era was 80s Marvel superheroes...some of that is just "right time, right place" I guess, but I'll tell you...very few put everything after bills paid into that material in the mid-late 1990s. Anybody alive then could have done it, anybody holding could have not sold (to me) and just continued to hold. They didn't and within just a year after diving in, I saw the entire sub-category as a tremendous generational trough opportunity and took it. Over and over again. And unlike roughly 80% of all the collector names I knew way back then, I didn't sell out at double, triple, etc, have the hobby leave me behind; I am still here today, enjoying the art, loving the art, and patiently waiting for "when" to cash out too.

Good thing you said “almost”, since you already know my views. And, as you know, I have acted accordingly. If I had a large pile of stuff that wasn’t near and dear to my heart, then I could sell it or trade it. But money won’t change my life, or my tastes.

My father had a collection of Persian rugs he loved, but he would never sell them. They reminded him of his trips abroad, as well as times with my mother and his family. During the last few years of his life, he liked to make kimchi, gazpacho, and count the pelicans while sitting on his deck. Money didn’t matter. What did were his memories. 

And I guess I pretty much feel the same. My purchases embody my personal sense of nostalgia, and the pleasure of meeting artists and other collectors, or even scoring at an auction. It isn’t the art. It’s the memories.

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Michael Browning

Michael Browning

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Posted
On 11/27/2023 at 12:36 PM, Rick2you2 said:

Good thing you said “almost”, since you already know my views. And, as you know, I have acted accordingly. If I had a large pile of stuff that wasn’t near and dear to my heart, then I could sell it or trade it. But money won’t change my life, or my tastes.

My father had a collection of Persian rugs he loved, but he would never sell them. They reminded him of his trips abroad, as well as times with my mother and his family. During the last few years of his life, he liked to make kimchi, gazpacho, and count the pelicans while sitting on his deck. Money didn’t matter. What did were his memories. 

And I guess I pretty much feel the same. My purchases embody my personal sense of nostalgia, and the pleasure of meeting artists and other collectors, or even scoring at an auction. It isn’t the art. It’s the memories.

My purchases embody my personal sense of nostalgia, too, so I totally understand that, but I also live on a government worker's salary and have a mortgage and a car payment, so I have to be very aware of how I spend every dollar I make. I have been very blessed to have bought earlier than most people, so I don't have a ton of money in some of the great art I've got. But, I've said this probably a hundred times: I'm very realistic and know that I am 51 years old and, as much as I would love to keep this stuff for the rest of this life and into the next, it just isn't possible -- and who wants to die with all this stuff when you've got no family to leave it to? My wife hates all of it until I sell a piece here or there and pay something off or put some cash into our account. I'm certainly not rich enough to just sit around and enjoy it every day, though I think it's great that you and your dad are/were able to do that. I've often said that the one thing rich folks have that us average people don't is the luxury of time. 

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tth2

tth2

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Posted
On 11/27/2023 at 10:54 PM, delekkerste said:
On 11/26/2023 at 12:35 PM, tth2 said:

Going against the herd is great when investing in the stock market.  

It actually hasn't been for a long time (for reasons that I won't bore people here with).

Buying NVDA when everyone else was in hate with it during the third quarter of 2022 turned out to be a pretty good move, even before NVDA's massive run up from late May of this year. 

In fact, buying a number of different stocks during the meltdown in 2022 (i.e., going against the herd) turned out to be a pretty good move. (shrug) 

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delekkerste

delekkerste

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 11/27/2023 at 11:32 PM, tth2 said:

Buying NVDA when everyone else was in hate with it during the third quarter of 2022 turned out to be a pretty good move, even before NVDA's massive run up from late May of this year. 

While exceptions to the rule can be found in both the stock and OA markets, generally speaking, it has been more financially rewarding in recent memory to turn off the logic centers in your brain and just open your wallet and buy what everybody else likes.

Boring financial part in the spoiler section:

 

And people never hated NVDA last year - the stock never got below 70.6% buy ratings on the Street even at its lowest ebb and people never really stopped loving tech; they all just wanted their bubble back after last year's correction. And now we have the greatest portfolio concentration of stocks in the history of the stock market (due to NVDA and 6 other names) and yet somehow investors are not being penalized (yet) for their sheep-like herding behavior. Meanwhile, if you had gone against the herd and bet on small caps, emerging markets, value stocks, financials and any number of other stocks/sectors, you would feel like you had put all your OA money into Western, horror, romance and Barry Smith Conan pages plus 3rd tier strip art instead of mainstream superhero art.:ohnoez: 

Edited by delekkerste
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KirbyCollector

KirbyCollector

Posted
Posted
On 11/28/2023 at 12:16 AM, delekkerste said:

While exceptions to the rule can be found in both the stock and OA markets, generally speaking, it has been more financially rewarding in recent memory to turn off the logic centers in your brain and just open your wallet and buy what everybody else likes.

Boring financial part in the spoiler section:

  Reveal hidden contents

And people never hated NVDA last year - the stock never got below 70.6% buy ratings on the Street even at its lowest ebb and people never really stopped loving tech; they all just wanted their bubble back after last year's correction. And now we have the greatest portfolio concentration of stocks in the history of the stock market (due to NVDA and 6 other names) and yet somehow investors are not being penalized (yet) for their sheep-like herding behavior. Meanwhile, if you had gone against the herd and bet on small caps, emerging markets, value stocks, financials and any number of other stocks/sectors, you would feel like you had put all your OA money into Western, horror, romance and Barry Smith Conan pages plus 3rd tier strip art instead of mainstream superhero art.:ohnoez: 

IF it holds 430 next month, we should be in for one more push to 650 in the spring. That will probably mark the ATH for the market, and then things fall apart for a very long (5 years+) time. As opposed to 2008 and 2020, there will be no "buy the dip" opportunity for the average investor.

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Rick2you2

Rick2you2

Posted
Posted
On 11/27/2023 at 1:54 PM, Michael Browning said:

My purchases embody my personal sense of nostalgia, too, so I totally understand that, but I also live on a government worker's salary and have a mortgage and a car payment, so I have to be very aware of how I spend every dollar I make. I have been very blessed to have bought earlier than most people, so I don't have a ton of money in some of the great art I've got. But, I've said this probably a hundred times: I'm very realistic and know that I am 51 years old and, as much as I would love to keep this stuff for the rest of this life and into the next, it just isn't possible -- and who wants to die with all this stuff when you've got no family to leave it to? My wife hates all of it until I sell a piece here or there and pay something off or put some cash into our account. I'm certainly not rich enough to just sit around and enjoy it every day, though I think it's great that you and your dad are/were able to do that. I've often said that the one thing rich folks have that us average people don't is the luxury of time. 

I’m not rich; I just don’t care for most potential purchases. And I don’t spend much, either. Bought a cheap car (by preference), gave the house to the ex-wife, and the kids are almost off the dole.Don’t like fine dining very much, don’t care for wine, not much interest in travel, anymore. As for what I leave behind when I die, that’s my heirs’ problems. My artwork similarly reflects my spending habits. I just don’t think the amounts spent, or commanded, for a lot of this stuff is worth it to me. You don’t have to spend a lot to get great memories, but letting them go? No, getting them was hard enough. I spent 4 years trying to get a Sinkewicz cover. I won’t part with it now, and it isn’t even a favorite.

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delekkerste

delekkerste

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 11/28/2023 at 10:36 AM, tth2 said:

You're resorting to using analyst ratings to support your point?  Really?!

They are part of the herd, and the herd never stopped being bullish on NVDA/mega cap tech even during last year's decline. (shrug) Anyway, the bigger point, which is settled science, is that the preponderance of the evidence does not support the contention that it has paid to go against the herd in either stocks or OA in most of recent memory. Maybe that will change going forward as @KirbyCollector suggests (for stocks). Maybe it won't. I am but a simple Garfield-collecting OA collector and will leave it to others to opine on such weighty matters. :sorry: 

Edited by delekkerste
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cstojano

cstojano

Posted
Posted
On 11/28/2023 at 8:57 AM, delekkerste said:

They are part of the herd, and the herd never stopped being bullish on NVDA/mega cap tech even during last year's decline. (shrug) Anyway, the bigger point, which is settled science, is that the preponderance of the evidence does not support the contention that it has paid to go against the herd in either stocks or OA in most of recent memory. Maybe that will change going forward as @KirbyCollector suggests (for stocks). Maybe it won't. I am but a simple Garfield-collecting OA collector and will leave it to others to opine on such weighty matters. :sorry: 

Aren't you both arguing around the important piece related to time scale. I think tth is talking about the "blood in the streets", short term hold strategy of trading while delekkerste is talking about long-term, buy and hold investing??

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KirbyCollector

KirbyCollector

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 11/28/2023 at 10:38 AM, tth2 said:

A Delekkerste Doppelganger! :whatthe:

I retired at 51 and daytrade for fun using an established charting methodology. My charting simply tells me we may be looking at an event similar to the dotcom crash (i.e., 10 years to return to the highs) but broader based. I'm not speaking from emotion, but from data derived from charts. I could certainly be wrong, but I avoided losses in 2008 and 2020 (wasn't trading in 99) so I have a little confidence in my methods. As the old investment advisor saying goes, "Do your own due diligence." 

For the record, never met Gene nor do I know him personally. I do know his reputation for financial acumen, however.

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PhilipB2k17

PhilipB2k17

Posted
Posted
On 11/28/2023 at 12:24 PM, KirbyCollector said:

I retired at 51 and daytrade for fun using an established charting methodology. My charting simply tells me we may be looking at an event similar to the dotcom crash (i.e., 10 years to return to the highs) but broader based. I'm not speaking from emotion, but from data derived from charts. I could certainly be wrong, but I avoided losses in 2008 and 2020 (wasn't trading in 99) so I have a little confidence in my methods. As the old investment advisor saying goes, "Do your own due diligence." 

For the record, never met Gene nor do I know him personally. I do know his reputation for financial acumen, however.

So you're saying the Bear market from the past two years is going to go down even more? 

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JC25427N

JC25427N

Posted
Posted (edited)

  

On 11/28/2023 at 12:24 PM, KirbyCollector said:

I retired at 51 and daytrade for fun using an established charting methodology. My charting simply tells me we may be looking at an event similar to the dotcom crash (i.e., 10 years to return to the highs) but broader based. I'm not speaking from emotion, but from data derived from charts. I could certainly be wrong, but I avoided losses in 2008 and 2020 (wasn't trading in 99) so I have a little confidence in my methods. As the old investment advisor saying goes, "Do your own due diligence." 

For the record, never met Gene nor do I know him personally. I do know his reputation for financial acumen, however.

I'm not saying this is you or making any comment about your proficiency, but the last time I almost trusted someone who told me they daytraded as a hobby and found massive success with it, their advice was based on them taking an Udemy course on technical indicators and a rudimentary application of a simple moving average and bollinger bands. I didn't take their advice because as you say "Do your own diligence" but I wouldn't have been happy if I did. 

The only reason I even bring it up is because I got reminded of it because he came to me with the same sort of line "My charting is saying....". So it's just to say you may know of the right tools, and be doing analysis based on data rather than feelings or fundamental analysis, but that in and of itself doesn't make a methodology more or less valid or guarantee success (neither does past performance as the other old advisor saying goes). I don't know if you're right or not, I'm not by any means an expert on this type of stuff either, but I'm just wary of anyone who tells me they know what the market will look like in the future with as much confidence and eagerness as you express. 

Edited by JC25427N
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tth2

tth2

Posted
Posted
On 11/28/2023 at 11:57 PM, delekkerste said:

the herd never stopped being bullish on NVDA/mega cap tech even during last year's decline.

Given that the entire stock market was in a bear market (down 20%) last year, and NVDA/mega cap tech down even more than that, then by definition market sentiment could not have been bullish.  And as you well know, analyst ratings often don't reflect what they actually believe about a stock and their headline rating might even contradict what they write about the stock.  

On 11/28/2023 at 11:57 PM, delekkerste said:

Anyway, the bigger point, which is settled science, is that the preponderance of the evidence does not support the contention that it has paid to go against the herd in either stocks or OA in most of recent memory.

I certainly agree with you when it comes to OA (and comics). 

On stocks, I'd say it's more like it's been a win/win situation whether you went with the herd or against the herd.  If you just went with the herd by, say, putting your money automatically each month into index funds, you will have indeed done very well.  However, if you waited to buy until there were big sell-offs (i.e., going against the herd), such as 2008/09, early 2016, 2nd quarter of 2020 and 3rd quarter of 2022, you will have done even better.

I think you're narrowly defining going against the herd as going into unloved sectors.  And you might be correct there.  But going against the herd also means buying when others are selling (and vice versa).

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