Heritage Nov 16-19 Signature Auction 5 5

[tth2]

On 11/23/2023 at 7:30 AM, MAR1979 said:

On 11/23/2023 at 7:06 AM, Rick2you2 said:

I did lose money in 2020, but it came back in about 12-18 months. So, I effectively lost 1-2 years worth of asset growth. Not tragic.

 

and not if you use the opportunity to invest heavily while prices are down.

2008/2009 and 2020 were two of the best opportunities to invest ever.  If you weren't putting every available dollar into the stock market and other assets at those times, you were wrong.

Edited November 23, 2023 by tth2

[tth2]

On 11/23/2023 at 9:06 AM, batman_fan said:

Let's not forget the tech crash of 2000.  My wife worked for Merrill Lynch Investment Banking.  I had Ciena and JDSU stock and was buying a house.  One of the bankers she worked for rep'd JDSU and she asked if we should sell.  His response was "blue chip, not going anywhere". The next day it lost 20% of its value.  I dumped both stocks.  Both went on to lose about 80% of their value.  2008 - 2012 was a great buying opportunity as was 2020.

2001-2003, until the second Gulf War started, was also a great period to invest in the stock market.  Lots of great value.

And needless to say, any money put into comics and OA back then has done very well.

Edited November 23, 2023 by tth2

[tth2]

On 11/23/2023 at 9:27 AM, Kryptic1 said:

The quality of art in these auctions is nowhere close to what it was last year when some crazy prices drew out a lot of incredible art.

Not surprisingly, the smartest guys own the best art, and are the most knowledgeable about when to git while the gittin's still good.

[tth2]

On 11/23/2023 at 11:17 AM, cstojano said:

Probably not the thread, but speaking of soft prices vs not I believe this is a record for a page from this book and don't quite understand why. 

https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/story-page/eddie-campbell-and-eddie-campbell-from-hell-7-story-page-20-original-art-mad-love-publishing-/a/322347-49025.s?type=bidnotice-tracked-endofauction

Yup, did a doubletake when I saw this result.  Almost double the next highest price for any page from this series that I'm aware of.

[Rick2you2]

On 11/22/2023 at 10:31 PM, tth2 said:

2008/2009 and 2020 were two of the best opportunities to invest ever.  If you weren't putting every available dollar into the stock market and other assets at those times, you were wrong.

I have no doubt you are mathematically correct, but I did not care. It’s just money and I am quite comfortable, so why gild the lily?

[Rick2you2]

On 11/22/2023 at 8:27 PM, Kryptic1 said:

I didn’t realize how far off we were from 2022 levels until I did the math.  Here’s the total value of art sold at Heritage signature auctions for each of the last 3 years:

2021: $31.7M

2022: $61.9M

2023: $38.2M

They’re 38% down from ‘22, and if you exclude the sale of Frazetta’s Dark Kingdom in the June 2023 auction, they’re down 48%.  Obviously we haven’t seen that kind of decline in prices.  The quality of art in these auctions is nowhere close to what it was last year when some crazy prices drew out a lot of incredible art.  Now consignors are expecting the same crazy prices, dealers have priced their inventory above ‘22 levels, and buyers aren’t interested at those prices.  It seems like buyers and sellers are now in a staring contest, waiting for the other to blink.

What you are describing could be evidence of the beginning of a price bubble collapse. Or, it could be just a temporary, broad price retrenchment. Or, perhaps, changing market interests. We won’t know until we can use hindsight to figure it out.

So long as dealers have stock purchased at low prices, and particularly if they are only part-time, it could be a very long wait.

[Rick2you2]

On 11/22/2023 at 10:36 PM, tth2 said:

Not surprisingly, the smartest guys own the best art, and are the most knowledgeable about when to git while the gittin's still good.

They may own the most valuable art, and coveted art, but “best” is in the eyes of the beholder. Since I don’t care for most Silver Age Marvel art, does that make me dumb? 

[tth2]

On 11/23/2023 at 8:12 PM, Rick2you2 said:

They may own the most valuable art, and coveted art, but “best” is in the eyes of the beholder. Since I don’t care for most Silver Age Marvel art, does that make me dumb? 

Why do you take things so personally?  Substitute "most valuable" for "best" if that makes you feel better.  It was just a generic observation that the smart guys had sold at the top of the market. 

[Rick2you2]

On 11/23/2023 at 9:01 AM, tth2 said:

Why do you take things so personally?  Substitute "most valuable" for "best" if that makes you feel better.  It was just a generic observation that the smart guys had sold at the top of the market. 

I don’t take it personally; I do think that there is a difference which deserves to be observed.
Would Alex Johnson not be considered a smart guy because he likes fake Sugar and Spike recreations? What about people here who collect things like commissions, even though they have the least likelihood of appreciation? The smart guys who consider the investment value of their collection may own a lot of valuable art, which isn’t always the case, either, nor do brains give one precognitive powers, but I am definitely not one of those who looks at the value of his collection and I am no dope. To me, this is all play money, never to be recouped, and I suspect I am not alone. That point deserves a defense on behalf of all us dumb-dumbs.  

[delekkerste]

On 11/22/2023 at 10:31 PM, tth2 said:

2008/2009 and 2020 were two of the best opportunities to invest ever.  If you weren't putting every available dollar into the stock market and other assets at those times, you were wrong.

On 11/23/2023 at 6:56 AM, Rick2you2 said:

I have no doubt you are mathematically correct, but I did not care. It’s just money and I am quite comfortable, so why gild the lily?

@Rick2you2 Don't take it personally, Tim basically insulted the whole Board by trying to throwing a jab my way since virtually no one "put every available dollar into the stock market and other assets at those times", because most people like to sleep well at night, have real-world problems to deal with in times of economic stress/crisis and global pandemics, and don't live in a world where where everything is guaranteed to go up back up after a fall and people have the perfect foresight to see it happening in advance. 

[delekkerste]

On 11/23/2023 at 9:32 AM, Rick2you2 said:

I don’t take it personally; I do think that there is a difference which deserves to be observed.
Would Alex Johnson not be considered a smart guy because he likes fake Sugar and Spike recreations? What about people here who collect things like commissions, even though they have the least likelihood of appreciation? The smart guys who consider the investment value of their collection may own a lot of valuable art, which isn’t always the case, either, nor do brains give one precognitive powers, but I am definitely not one of those who looks at the value of his collection and I am no dope. To me, this is all play money, never to be recouped, and I suspect I am not alone. That point deserves a defense on behalf of all us dumb-dumbs.  

What ultimately made people look smart was largely having the financial wherewithal (from either their real-world finances and/or having built up art capital after getting in early) and/or just being so insanely devoted to the art that they held on while many others sold out too soon. As I consider myself to be part of the former group, I don't think I'm speaking out of turn by saying that. 

I have to say it was less smarts and more having enough cash to indulge my slavering inner fanboy without ever feeling the need to sell that allowed me to build the collection I have, as has been the case with many other owners of excellent OA collections. Between getting in early; idiosyncratic luck/opportunity. massive bankroll; undying devotion for OA leading to an unwillingness to sell; and smarts/foresight, I'd say that "smarts/foresight" has been the variable that has had the least influence on the building of great collections in our hobby.

If anything, being crazy/reckless has proven to be a better strategy than being "smart", as the market has made most decisions that looked crazy at the time look smart in hindsight. And it really was mostly a case of +  making people look smart over time rather than any inherent superior foresight. Again, there's no shortage of examples like this in my own collection - plenty of pieces that I was happy to overpay for at the time without any expectation that I'd ever see that money again.

Let's just chalk it up to "it's better to be lucky than smart."  

Edited November 24, 2023 by delekkerste

[comix4fun]

On 11/23/2023 at 9:23 AM, delekkerste said:

@Rick2you2 Don't take it personally, Tim basically insulted the whole Board by trying to throwing a jab my way since virtually no one "put every available dollar into the stock market and other assets at those times", because most people like to sleep well at night, have real-world problems to deal with in times of economic stress/crisis and global pandemics, and don't live in a world where where everything is guaranteed to go up back up after a fall and people have the perfect foresight to see it happening in advance. 

Love this post....it falls under "Look on the (He's not just insulting you) Bright Side "

[delekkerste]

On 11/22/2023 at 10:17 PM, cstojano said:

Probably not the thread, but speaking of soft prices vs not I believe this is a record for a page from this book and don't quite understand why. 

https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/story-page/eddie-campbell-and-eddie-campbell-from-hell-7-story-page-20-original-art-mad-love-publishing-/a/322347-49025.s?type=bidnotice-tracked-endofauction

Surprised by the price? Yes.

Surprised that it fetched a record for this book? Not at all.

I didn't care for From Hell at all (going so far as to sell my TPB on eBay immediately after finishing reading it in the early 2000s), but, as far as important/memorable pages go, they don't get much/any better than this. Gull doing his nastiest work and then having a vision of the future...whenever I'm in East London, this scene always seems to pop in my head.  

[Kryptic1]

On 11/23/2023 at 7:07 AM, Rick2you2 said:

So long as dealers have stock purchased at low prices, and particularly if they are only part-time, it could be a very long wait.

Yeah, most of the dealers don’t have much overhead so even a large drop in volume won’t trigger a fire sale, but I wonder if they continue to bid as actively in auctions.  If they do, they could end up with more inventory they can’t sell.  If they don’t, auctions end lower and it further widens the enormous gap between auction prices and dealer prices.

[tth2]

On 11/23/2023 at 10:32 PM, Rick2you2 said:

That point deserves a defense on behalf of all us dumb-dumbs.  

For someone who doesn't take things personally, you seem to be awfully defensive.

I was simply complimenting those who were smart enough to sell at the top of the market.  That doesn't mean that I'm saying that everyone who didn't sell was dumb.  

[tth2]

On 11/23/2023 at 11:23 PM, delekkerste said:

@Rick2you2 Don't take it personally, Tim basically insulted the whole Board by trying to throwing a jab my way since virtually no one "put every available dollar into the stock market and other assets at those times", because most people like to sleep well at night, have real-world problems to deal with in times of economic stress/crisis and global pandemics, and don't live in a world where where everything is guaranteed to go up back up after a fall and people have the perfect foresight to see it happening in advance. 

Is it Thanksgiving or Defensivebeing today?  Obviously there was some hyperbole in my comment, but it's been well proven that people who pulled their horns in during those crashes made a bad mistake, while the people who doubled down did very well.  

In any event, how many times have you told me about people who way overextended themselves on OA and effectively lived in vans by the river and subsisted on a diet of PB&J sandwiches and ramen while sitting on OA collections worth a fortune?  These were indeed people who put every available dollar (and even unavailable dollars) into "other assets".  

You literally contradict yourself a few posts further down when you talk about how being "crazy/reckless" has been a perfectly viable strategy for building a very valuable OA collection.  While you point out that some/many collectors such as yourself had the financial wherewithal to be crazy/reckless, you've also told me in the past about collectors who definitely did not have the financial wherewithal to do so but did so anyways.

[cstojano]

On 11/23/2023 at 8:42 AM, delekkerste said:

Surprised by the price? Yes.

Surprised that it fetched a record for this book? Not at all.

I didn't care for From Hell at all (going so far as to sell my TPB on eBay immediately after finishing reading it in the early 2000s), but, as far as important/memorable pages go, they don't get much/any better than this. Gull doing his nastiest work and then having a vision of the future...whenever I'm in East London, this scene always seems to pop in my head.  

Appreciate your input here. I get it. This is a book that has a ton of pages and I find it hard to differentiate what seems to be a lot of rather bland pages (I like the art style and the source material so...). I suspect it is Gull caugfht in the act here that drives the price, as opposed to the piece that just closed on HA where another act was being done  I always think of this book when that "what makes an A+ page" thread gets bumped to the top.

[Xatari]

Let’s get back to arguing the the merits of BWS Conan pages. 😂 

[Dirtcheap31]

The van by the river comment is funny/sad I mean I know people who save every dollar for retirement and they also do not let themselves have the nice things in life or if they do it’s on a strict budget and we could be gone tomorrow… (hope not) I feel balance is key in all things splurge on the things that bring you joy and spend less in the areas that do not.. we all play in a hobby that is a luxury these pages we treasure are a luxury many can not afford and I for one am lucky and thankful I am able to continue to play in this space… I honestly do not care if pages go up or down I prefer down so I can add better pages from runs I love but going up is fine too… happy thanksgiving 

[delekkerste]

On 11/23/2023 at 9:32 PM, tth2 said:

In any event, how many times have you told me about people who way overextended themselves on OA and effectively lived in vans by the river and subsisted on a diet of PB&J sandwiches and ramen while sitting on OA collections worth a fortune?  These were indeed people who put every available dollar (and even unavailable dollars) into "other assets".  

You literally contradict yourself a few posts further down when you talk about how being "crazy/reckless" has been a perfectly viable strategy for building a very valuable OA collection.  While you point out that some/many collectors such as yourself had the financial wherewithal to be crazy/reckless, you've also told me in the past about collectors who definitely did not have the financial wherewithal to do so but did so anyways.

There's no contradiction at all here. Just because doing something crazy/reckless/stupid worked out in the end does not mean that it was the smart move at the time (the process counts for more than the result).

Choosing to have your OA purchases delivered to the cardboard box you're living in (IIRC, there's an anecdote in Glen Gold's excellent OA article that he did for Playboy years ago describing something very close to this ) does not say anything about your intelligence or powers of foresight and says everything about the market bailing out your mental illness.