If you wanted to build a model to represent the entire comic market and determine which way it's trending, how would you do it? 1 1

[NoMan]

On 12/6/2023 at 9:42 PM, MattTheDuck said:

Probably something like this

 

is this really real?

[MattTheDuck]

On 12/7/2023 at 3:12 PM, NoMan said:

is this really real?

Do you mean “is it a real model kit?”  The answer is “yes.”  Check out the “there’s nothing sexier than a hot, hot model” thread in comics general

[pemart1966]

On 12/7/2023 at 6:12 PM, NoMan said:

is this really real?

Yes it is and by asking that question, you're showing your age...   

This same kit was released in Canada under the title of "Dr. Deadly's Daughter" - very rare and sought after version...

Edited December 7, 2023 by pemart1966

[Nick Furious]

On 12/7/2023 at 9:40 AM, VintageComics said:

Life in the West is hard but doable. It's nothing more than a series of decisions and some people make bad ones. Downmarkets expose all the bad decisions, but if we weren't exposing bad decision making everyone would keep making them. That's a major problem today. Nobody wants anything bad exposed and so everything just keeps getting worse because society has been trained to avoid consequences rather than meet them head on and learn from them. 

The people selling their bubble purchases under duress are, by definition, the same people who ran the market up in the first place.  My capacity for empathy falls short of wanting to cushion the blow for them.      

[wiparker824]

Sounds about right.

[BraveDave]

There are three primary elements to market modeling. Asset allocation, sub-asset selection (“industry allocation”) and specific selection (“stock picking”).
 

I built a market model that has proven effective in finding relative value and risk in comics. It served me exceptionally well. It addressed the “stock picking” and “industry allocation” part.

The overarching part, asset allocation, hinges on macro factors (interest rates, demographics). Historically you could do well here (as many areas of investing) by diversifying. Doesn’t always work depending on how drivers are correlated to the different asset classes. Great example is that both bond and equity markets tanked last year - inflation>interest rates had similar (though subtly distinct) impacts on both.

To be good at this stuff (vs just lucky) isn’t easy - it is actually rare. For most I suggest sticking to an approach of financial tolerance. Not sinking more than you can stomach losing into any one category (or even into “risk assets” at all). Also, learning the trend may not always be your friend and something hot can reverse more quickly than you may think.

Edit: one additional element to consider is time frame. A model can attempt to predict near term movements (eg momentum) or longer-term (intrinsic value). I focus on the latter as picking out time frames is virtually impossible in most markets.

Edited December 8, 2023 by BraveDave

[comicwiz]

On 12/7/2023 at 6:00 PM, the blob said:

Or treat it as a long term asset

Just yesterday, I was having a discussion with someone about this, here's one of the posts from that chat:

"Somewhere along the line, the notion of people needing to buy something, and sell it immediately overlooked one of the most important areas of growth, and that is being confident enough in what you are buying to see the long-term potential."

[comicwiz]

On 12/7/2023 at 11:31 PM, Nick Furious said:

The people selling their bubble purchases under duress are, by definition, the same people who ran the market up in the first place.  My capacity for empathy falls short of wanting to cushion the blow for them.      

When a frenzy occurs like we saw the last few years, long-time collectors are far from immune from making bad decisions. On the contrary, they represent the FOMO contingent of the frenzied buying, and the fear is that the market could price them out before they secure the last few items to round out their collections.

[VintageComics]

On 12/8/2023 at 9:31 AM, comicwiz said:

On 12/7/2023 at 11:31 PM, Nick Furious said:

The people selling their bubble purchases under duress are, by definition, the same people who ran the market up in the first place.  My capacity for empathy falls short of wanting to cushion the blow for them.      

When a frenzy occurs like we saw the last few years, long-time collectors are far from immune from making bad decisions. On the contrary, they represent the FOMO contingent of the frenzied buying, and the fear is that the market could price them out before they secure the last few items to round out their collections.

If you're saying that the populace in general are sheep, I agree. 

A couple of years ago I was driving in a truly deadly snowstorm. I'm never afraid of driving. To me it's like walking and it's 2nd hand, but this storm was really bad. There was ice under the snow on the freeway and it was treacherous. 

I'm pretty confident in my driving skills and how I mitigate risk, but I don't trust anyone else so I tried to keep my distance from surrounding cars. 

Inevitably, I'd have someone following me and tailgating. 

So I'd either speed up to lose them or pull over to the right and slow down. They would FREAKING FOLLOW MY EVERY MOVE, not realizing it's far deadlier if two cars collide than one goes skidding on an empty freeway. 

So I would pull over on the shoulder to a near stop, they would follow me until I'm down to walking speed, realize I'm stopping and pass me.

Buffoons. 

Then, after they'd pass I'd carry on...until the next car starts tailgating me and I have to repeat the same thing. 

People are NOT being taught how to think and act independently. They're not being taught how to be objective or confident. They're being raised to conform, obey and FOLLOW and we are living in a society where the majority is incapable of making rational, objective decisions and it's terrifying to me, because THEY are the majority. They'd follow into oblivion. 

This is why all these bubbles form. If it's not a pileup on the freeway, it's a pileup somewhere else like we see in the hobby. 

Edited December 8, 2023 by VintageComics

[Cat]

If we're building a model can it be one of my Gundam kits please? I've got a heap I haven't done yet and I'd appreciate the help. 

[VintageComics]

On 12/7/2023 at 11:31 PM, Nick Furious said:

The people selling their bubble purchases under duress are, by definition, the same people who ran the market up in the first place.  My capacity for empathy falls short of wanting to cushion the blow for them.      

Not always, but many of them, yes. Like the people who took out massive loans to "cash in" on Bitcoin's rise and then lost everything. 

Duh. The 1st thing you did wrong is borrowed money you couldn't afford to lose and the 2nd thing you did wrong is bought into something on the way up and weren't able to hold...because you did the 1st thing wrong. 

People who are able to hold do much better than people who need to sell. 

[the blob]

On 12/8/2023 at 3:21 PM, VintageComics said:

Not always, but many of them, yes. Like the people who took out massive loans to "cash in" on Bitcoin's rise and then lost everything. 

Duh. The 1st thing you did wrong is borrowed money you couldn't afford to lose and the 2nd thing you did wrong is bought into something on the way up and weren't able to hold...because you did the 1st thing wrong. 

People who are able to hold do much better than people who need to sell. 

well.... maybe I guess. I was buying stuff with my covid fun money (I didn't get the checks, but I was selling a bunch on ebay and saving so much with no commuting, etc. (and no "big trip" vacations in 2020 and 2021 as well) and for reasons unclear to me we were given like $2000 in free groceries because our kids were not going to school and getting lunch/breakfast), still hunting for bargains, or trying to, but made some purchases like a 9.8 lock and key #1 for close of market price, any of us buying in that market helped prop up prices even if we weren't the ones paying record prices for anything, we bid up books that others wound up buying, etc. We all played some role.  But yeah, when I came back to work in 2021 and one of the new attorneys (30something) was talking about how he had gotten into comics over the last year and viewed them as some investment vehicle (without having any interest in the insides) i knew this wasn't turning out well. 

 

Edited December 11, 2023 by the blob

[VintageComics]

On 12/11/2023 at 5:37 PM, the blob said:

I was buying stuff with my covid fun money

That's the difference. 

[the blob]

On 12/11/2023 at 5:44 PM, VintageComics said:

That's the difference. 

I should have been paying down debt or something more responsible. But yeah, it didn't cripple me financially or anything and really nothing compared to going on one of my wife's planned family vacations where we spend $6K or the $45K car in the driveway we do not need because we already have a car that runs. The comics will be aged a bit more as I am in no condition to resume my job as a junior dealer anyway. Maybe the market will perk up in 2024.

Edited December 11, 2023 by the blob

[bronze_rules]

One other interesting facet about all this, is I was thinking that a blue chip title (analogous to DOW component) would be something like AF 15.

Yet, I would guess that (unlike dow components), there will be pockets of really high volatility (Marvel Movie explosion, Covid, crazy comic surges last decade).

So, it would be hard to create similar indices, I think (bellweathers don't move much, but small titles should be more volatile) or baskets.

I sort of think it would be better to correlate to some type of collectibles market proxy, but even then, there's probably really weird volatility with certain comics.

Anyone else agree/disagree with that?

Edited December 11, 2023 by bronze_rules