If you wanted to build a model to represent the entire comic market and determine which way it's trending, how would you do it? 1 1

[VintageComics]

This thread stems from the auction discussion thread, which inevitably has morphed into discussing current market trends. 

The problem is that the market is vast and has so much depth and breadth to it that it seems almost impossible to tell whether the comic market overall is climbing or falling as each area of the market is doing something different. 

You have different markets in grade variations for the same book.

You have market variations across genres, titles, eras. 

You have market variations for keys vs non-keys.  

If you wanted to wanted to build some sort of a model to try to track and gauge the direction of the entire market using data from various segments, would that be possible?

Crowdsource this shizzle! 

 

Edited December 7, 2023 by VintageComics

[stormflora]

Well, as you said, the comic scene is split into different branches due to there existing different kinds of content and demographics.

Any sort of blanket generalization of the market as a whole would not be an accurate indicator of the value of specific subsets of comics.

Just like how the S&P 500 or NASDAQ works, they don't necessarily illustrate an accurate picture of the different sectors that they cover. Some may perform better than others.

I'm sure someone who has the time and patience could go around making a large summarized tracker of individual key issues for every since comic series, derived off of PriceCharting.

But that's a lot of work. And again, results would be obscure due to the existence of different comic ages.

[Nick Furious]

On 12/6/2023 at 9:47 PM, stormflora said:

Just like how the S&P 500 or NASDAQ works, they don't necessarily illustrate an accurate picture of the different sectors that they cover. Some may perform better than others.

I initially thought of the stock market model as well, but there is nothing that captures the entirety of it.  I would look at how Inflation data is calculated (a representative basket that changes with the times) and build something based off of that model.  Inflation data is reported as a whole and then broken down into sectors.      

[VintageComics]

On 12/6/2023 at 10:47 PM, stormflora said:

Well, as you said, the comic scene is split into different branches due to there existing different kinds of content and demographics.

Any sort of blanket generalization of the market as a whole would not be an accurate indicator of the value of specific subsets of comics.

Just like how the S&P 500 or NASDAQ works, they don't necessarily illustrate an accurate picture of the different sectors that they cover. Some may perform better than others.

I'm sure someone who has the time and patience could go around making a large summarized tracker of individual key issues for every since comic series, derived off of PriceCharting.

But that's a lot of work. And again, results would be obscure due to the existence of different comic ages.

Oh, I'm aware of how diverse the market is, but it's no different than trying to build an epidemiological or economic model for a large population. There are ways of doing it. 

This discussion is right up the alley of a good statistician but it's a layman's discussion that I thought would be interesting to have. 

So I think the discussion really is going to come down to which segments of the market need to be represented and how to weight them. 

[bronze_rules]

If you want to look at it from the perspective of a statistician, the central limit theorem shows us more and more data approach the true mean with least variation.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some existing metric for collectibles trends.

 

Edited December 7, 2023 by bronze_rules

[MattTheDuck]

Probably something like this

 

[AJD]

I've done a fair bit of mathematical modelling over the years, and I think the comic market would be doable to an extent, but of doubtful utility. You'd need to have variables for the valuation of major market segments, and the rates of change of those could be pulled from data. You'd need to model couplings between market segments and estimate those ... blah blah blah.

Or you could just look it up here.

Edit: having skimmed the paper and reading key bits of it, they haven't approached it the way I would. But they are from a mathematics and statistics background and I was in the physical sciences. I'd be more interested in the market as a dynamic system of coupled variables, while their approach looks more like statistical regression at its heart, though with some dynamics through inputs such as 'deterioration rate' and even 'death rate of original purchasers' (!). In any case, the results are so-so (as I expected).

[Get Marwood & I]

On 12/7/2023 at 11:52 AM, AJD said:

I've done a fair bit of mathematical modelling over the years, and I think the comic market would be doable to an extent, but of doubtful utility. You'd need to have variables for the valuation of major market segments, and the rates of change of those could be pulled from data. You'd need to model couplings between market segments and estimate those ... blah blah blah.

Or you could just look it up here.

That's an interesting report Andy, thanks. The 'collectors' model takes some reading.

I found this similar graph online:

[Ken Aldred]

On 12/7/2023 at 12:15 PM, Get Marwood & I said:

That's an interesting report Andy, thanks. The 'collectors' model takes some reading.

I found this similar graph online:

You might have to expand your model a bit, Steve, as I believe Jimmers is a huge Charlton Comics fan as well.

[VintageComics]

On 12/7/2023 at 12:42 AM, MattTheDuck said:

Probably something like this

 

I have a cuter butt, but I agree that's close! 

[comicwiz]

I'm not sure modeling is even necessary to describe how collecting segments have been operating, particularly in the last 3-5 years. There is a contingent of speculators who are using collectibles like some new asset class. Those that dabble in multiple categories treat them like option trading. One counters the other, they don't care if one drops as long as the other trends upwards. The issue is that it was heavily reliant on free money, and now debt has become unattractive, inflation, and affordability have all eaten into both "investing" with borrowed money, AND any disposable income people used to collect. The confluence of these factors has slowed spending on collectibles down to a grinding halt.

As a sidebar, I've been here long enough that it's worth noting that one of the bald-headed misconceptions that has been perpetuated (and not only in this hobby, but nearly every one I've been a part of) sees these scenarios as a golden opportunity to buy. The false hope that everyone is seen exiting, and leaving behind these tasty morsels. I've been collecting for over 40 years, seriously for at least 35 of them. I've never, not once seen a situation where this happens. Not without some fallout. Meaning, most of the cyclical events where you have a peak market, that drops significantly like we have seen over the last 3 years is going to create ANY kind of opportunity where people are going to just give their stuff away, break even or take a hit. This invariably creates a supply choke because while there is a glut of stuff that people overspent on for the past 3 years, during one of the most wild growth periods I've ever witnessed, the only circumstance of getting a "steal" is at the expense of someone in duress. Personally, collecting was never that important that I needed that kind of upper-hand to build my collection. It's been said before, but counting on these conditions or reveling in getting that kind of upper hand is unwise, because if there's anything the last few years have shown us, that person could very easily be you some day.

Edited December 7, 2023 by comicwiz

[VintageComics]

On 12/7/2023 at 8:59 AM, comicwiz said:

the only circumstance of getting a "steal" is at the expense of someone in duress. Personally, collecting was never that important that I needed that kind of upper-hand to build my collection. It's been said before, but counting on these conditions or reveling in getting that kind of upper hand is unwise, because if there's anything the last few years have shown us, that person could very easily be you some day.

I view the markets very differently.

The fundamental principle for every buyer in every economy is to buy as low as you can while remaining ethical and moral, and that necessarily will mean there are always going to be losers as well as winners. You can never eliminate the losers. Loss is not only a great way to learn a lesson, it's the best lesson someone can learn and hopefully they don't repeat the same mistakes.

I don't think I've really seen anyone publicly revel on here in someone's personal loss by rubbing someone's nose in it. Putting out general statements like "someone's loss is your gain" is not derogatory or even negative. It's factual. 

I lost 5 figures when I dabbled in the art market many years ago. It was my decision to sell, not the buyer's. I hated the loss, but was happy for the buyer who I thought got a steal. I just took that loss, learned from it and rolled the money into something else that has grown into where I am today. It's on the seller to decide when is a good time to sell, not the buyer. 

[Stefan_W]

I dont think it is possible to model the entire comic market. Models typically work under the larger principle of "garbage in - garbage out" and the reality is we do not have the majority of sales data. I think it is safe to assume that the majority of second hand comic sales overall are personal transactions that fly under the radar. 

If you look at comic value as the key output, and you make the assumption that public sales are the most important part of setting comic value, there is work that can possibly be done. It makes sense if you think that even in private sales people refer to public sales data to set value. The issue then becomes accessibility of data from public sites, and that is a pretty big stumbling block. It is possible to scrape Ebay and Heritage, for example, sites like Comic Link do no allow people to use the data in that way so even if you figured how to do it the output cannot be outwards facing. That severely restricts the usefulness of that data. 

I think this is an interesting discussion. The approach I would take is to segment the market into categories and deal with the associated problems with those segments individually in ways that make the most sense. The basic rationale is that someone who, for example, collects nothing but Silver Age books does not give a toss about how the modern market is behaving. The issue is that once things are split apart in this way for purposes of establishing trends it is almost impossible to put everything together in meaningful overall model - retrofitting in this way almost never works right. 

[comicwiz]

On 12/7/2023 at 9:49 AM, VintageComics said:

I view the markets very differently.

The fundamental principle for every buyer in every economy is to buy as low as you can while remaining ethical and moral, and that necessarily will mean there are always going to be losers as well as winners. You can never eliminate the losers. Loss is not only a great way to learn a lesson, it's the best lesson someone can learn and hopefully they don't repeat the same mistakes.

I don't think I've really seen anyone publicly revel on here in someone's personal loss by rubbing someone's nose in it. Putting out general statements like "someone's loss is your gain" is not derogatory or even negative. It's factual. 

I lost 5 figures when I dabbled in the art market many years ago. It was my decision to sell, not the buyer's. I hated the loss, but was happy for the buyer who I thought got a steal. I just took that loss, learned from it and rolled the money into something else that has grown into where I am today. It's on the seller to decide when is a good time to sell, not the buyer. 

While I agree that the simple fundamental way things work in a "hobby" oriented market is to try to find someone who will pay more than you did, the direction the hobby took during the last few years, where record and unprecedented prices were being attained, could not have been viewed as something that would last. There is no chance some of the things that sold in that peak market will ever see that kind of value. In certain instances, I really feel in the "not ever" realm. I do realize in my orbit, my perspective is one informed by handling appraisals for a wide range of collectors during the highs and lows. The buy low, sell high fundamental you speak of is not really intended to describe a situation where a new entrant, who bought at peak market, is still waiting for his submissions to return, and handed over the house keys to his bank because he couldn't afford mortgage payments after interest rates doubled.

 

Edited December 7, 2023 by comicwiz

[VintageComics]

On 12/7/2023 at 10:26 AM, comicwiz said:

The buy low, sell high fundamental you speak of is not really intended to describe a situation where a new entrant, who bought at peak market, is still waiting for his submissions to return, and handed over the house keys to his bank because he couldn't afford mortgage payments after interest rates doubled.

I genuinely feel terrible for that person, but while it sounds cruel that person gambled and lost. Nobody else is responsible for that person's decisions except for them, and that's coming from someone who was almost out in the streets in 1991. 

I lost my job a few weeks after I got married and the Canadian economy took a downturn at the same time. I ended up selling door to door 7 days a week, on weeknights, in the dead of Canadian winter to pay the bills and stay off the streets until I could find a job as a mechanic again, and when I got the job, it was a job I hated but it paid the bills.

I didn't recover fully until about 2-3 years later, and then started a family and made sure not to make the same mistakes again. We quite literally scraped by, living week to week in the early years and when my first property tax bill arrived it was $1000 and I didn't know how I was going to pay it. True story. 

Life in the West is hard but doable. It's nothing more than a series of decisions and some people make bad ones. Downmarkets expose all the bad decisions, but if we weren't exposing bad decision making everyone would keep making them. That's a major problem today. Nobody wants anything bad exposed and so everything just keeps getting worse because society has been trained to avoid consequences rather than meet them head on and learn from them. 

 

[jsilverjanet]

@valiantman

[valiantman]

On 12/7/2023 at 11:08 AM, jsilverjanet said:

@valiantman

I definitely don't have time to do anything like that

[aardvark88]

Every winter, it is the 'end of days' and the Great Comic Crash is upon us ... Jan. 2024. SA/BA keys down up to 40% compared to the spike in 2022. More FB marketplace ads listing one's personal collection of early SA ASM and X-men. Seeing AF 15 consigned to one's LCS. More LCS closing Dec. 31, 2023, as Jan. to Feb. are traditionally terrible months for retail: toys, comics, cr card bills coming due. LCS announces 1/2 price sale for entire month of Dec, 2023 to prepare for the $1 recent back issue dumping ground that is Jan. 2024.

[joeypost]

Buy low…sell higher. 

Edited December 7, 2023 by joeypost

[the blob]

On 12/7/2023 at 10:40 AM, VintageComics said:

I genuinely feel terrible for that person, but while it sounds cruel that person gambled and lost. Nobody else is responsible for that person's decisions except for them, and that's coming from someone who was almost out in the streets in 1991. 

I lost my job a few weeks after I got married and the Canadian economy took a downturn at the same time. I ended up selling door to door 7 days a week, on weeknights, in the dead of Canadian winter to pay the bills and stay off the streets until I could find a job as a mechanic again, and when I got the job, it was a job I hated but it paid the bills.

I didn't recover fully until about 2-3 years later, and then started a family and made sure not to make the same mistakes again. We quite literally scraped by, living week to week in the early years and when my first property tax bill arrived it was $1000 and I didn't know how I was going to pay it. True story. 

Life in the West is hard but doable. It's nothing more than a series of decisions and some people make bad ones. Downmarkets expose all the bad decisions, but if we weren't exposing bad decision making everyone would keep making them. That's a major problem today. Nobody wants anything bad exposed and so everything just keeps getting worse because society has been trained to avoid consequences rather than meet them head on and learn from them. 

 

Or treat it as a long term asset and lovingly fondle it for 20 years hoping it bounces back. It worked for many of the BA books that fizzled in the mid/late 90s, even some of the other stuff (case in point I paid $2 for a Spotlight 5 in about 1998 and everyone here knows the stories about ASM 129s at the dawn of ebay). With that said, if you're 50 and got burned jumping into comics it is no double different that watching some books crash at 25 in 1997, but I suspect most of these guys jumping in weren't 50.

 

 

 

Edited December 11, 2023 by the blob