A question about past and future values for non key issue comics 1 1

[Mokiguy]

I don’t really expect any psychics or people with extraordinary clairvoyant abilities to answer, but just folks with opinions will do.

I keep a pretty precise database of my collections, and as I was entering some current values based upon a few pricing sources, I happened to notice a fairly consistent year by year price progression for common non key issue books. I almost exclusively collect DC super Hero type books and have accumulated over 500 silver to early bronze age Lois lane, Jimmy Olsen, Superboy, Superman,  Aquaman, World’s Finest, Brave and the Bold, Action and Adventure Comics, as well as some more in demand titles like Wonder Woman, Batman, The Flash, Green Lantern, Detective and others etc. I’m cheap and so I don’t have a single key issue amongst my collection, some better than others and everything is raw, nothing slabbed and graded. I also realize that real world sales values are not always reflected in price guide values, but one does follow the other, and so the expectation would be that when price guides rise, real sales prices will also rise.

OK, that was a lot of build up and I will get to my question soon, but first an example and as evidence that you can comment on and about. I will be consistent and use common 6.0 non key Action Comics since I have a few, pricing will be averages rather than to the dollar and cents, and I will use only one guide, Comics Priceguide.com, but the progression will be similar for others like Overstreet or Nostomania or others for my evidence example ........... and question.

                                                1972/1974   $2 to $3

                                                1970/1971   $6 to $7

                                                1968/1969  $12 to $13

                                                1966/1967  $15 to $16

                                                1965            $21 to $22

                                                1964            $28 to $29

                                                1963            $40 to $41

Well I could go further back, but I think this is enough to frame my question. Whether or not those are real world prices or real world is only half or less …….. none the less, the progression is dramatic. Looks to be about 1,500% over 10 years for common non key issue comics. I wish my stock portfolio did that. So then, do you believe that this progression will continue ……… in other words, in 10 years will 1972 issues be around 1,500% higher than they are today, or has something changed, or will change enough to stop this or significantly slow it down?

 

 

[shadroch]

Supply and demand.  There is more demand for HG 1963 issues than there is supply.

I'd say there is more supply of HG 1972 books than there is demand which results in a low price.

Will it be different in ten years?  I've seen Bronze books no one cared about become objects of desire thirty years later, so I never say never.

My rational answer to your question is no, but comic collecting and the people who collect tend to be irrational.  Try explaining why a 1974 book in NM sells for $10, but the same book with a different cover price sells for $200 in VG, or how the presence of an ad supplement causes some books to skyrocket.

 

Edited January 20 by shadroch

[SOTIcollector]

My opinion, based on a perspective of more than four decades in this hobby, is that no, there will not be any such 1500% progression between 1980's and 1970's books.  I didn't bother looking up the pricing for comics post-1974, but I made up some prices that I believe to be realistic ($1-2 for FN Action Comics).  Then I created a graph that creates a perspective that goes back from today to 1963.

Your question asks whether this graph will turn into this graph in ten years.

This presumes that there's something about a comic book that's 50 years old that causes a significant and predictable spike.  However, as Shadroch pointed out, the driver of the market is supply and demand.  I don't feel supply or demand for 1970's comics will change dramatically in the next 10 years, so that second graph isn't likely to come about.

I believe the original graph demonstrates a far greater supply of 1970's books than 1960's books.  That there was a significant growth in comic book collecting and investing that took off in the 1970's.  The first Overstreet Guide was published in 1970.  Investors entered the market and bought hundreds of copies of hyped books like Shazam #1 or Famous First Edition or Howard the Duck Magazine #1, in a way the industry had never seen.  By 1980, the direct market was important enough that Marvel started selling non-returnable books directly to the direct (e.g. collectors') market.  The percentage of books that went directly into collectors' hands in 1963 was miniscule.  The percentage of books that went directly into collectors' hands in the 1970's or 1980's was MUCH larger.  So there is, and will always be, a much larger quantity of 1970's books in collectors' hands than 1960's books.  There won't be a 1500% difference between 1980's comics and 1970's comics because there isn't a corresponding difference in supply.

 

[Mokiguy]

I tend to agree with the above assessments except for the time frame. I think this price/value progression will continue with books that were issued up until about sometime in 1976. Two things happened in 1975 and 1976, and then a third began to creep in over the next few years that really changed the dynamic. 1975 and 1976 were the last years for the  25 cent comic for DC and Marvel. And mid 1976 was the first year when bar codes were first adopted and placed on comic book covers. There is a certain nostalgia element about being able to buy a comic for a quarter or less. that is hard to quantify, but that was the way it was for nearly 40 years. From the early 40's to the mid 70's, for 10 to 25 cents you could buy yourself a comic book, and another 5 or 10 cents bought a candy bar and you had yourself an afternoon. I tend to think that the bar code also made comic books feel sort of modern and rather than a nostalgic relic from the past, and that didn't help either. But I think an even bigger change was the tone of the comics themselves.

In the 40's, 50's, 60's, and till the mid 70's, super hero comics were sort of campy, corny, but little by little the violence and imagery became more graphic, more violent, sinister. And much like movies and television, super hero type comics followed suit. Compare the early Superman or Batman TV shows of the 50's and 60's or even the Superman movies of the 70's to today's Marvel blockbusters. Or the recent "Joker" movie compared to some of the earlier Superman, Batman nemesis like Lex Luther or the Penguin. That movie was so viciously violent, we didn't finish watching it at home but switched to something else. The innocence is gone.

But anyway, I believe it is the cover price and the campy and corny innocence that left comics in the mid 70's that will be the defining line of where the progression of values will stop, so I have perhaps 5 more years worth of books I will be collecting, up to mid 76. Of the 500+ comics I now own, none have a barcode.

Edited January 21 by Mokiguy