Overstreet value analysis for mid-grade comics

[Rob]

As I've mentioned in an earlier post, I track recent eBay sales of issues I want. I keep the info in my PDA, and use it when shopping on eBay, or at conventions, or shops. It allows me to see where the guide is underpriced, overpriced, or dead on.

 

I'm not a high-grade CGC collector, so this won't apply if you are. I think we all agree OS's 9.4 prices do not apply to CGC 9.4. But for mid-gade comics, what I've found so far is fairly accurate pricing. I don't know if the guide is predicting the market well, or if the market is buying based on guide prices.

 

For in-between grades (usually on CGC books when it's more accurate), I figure out the price by finding the median between prices. So if it's worth $100 in 2.0 G and $200 in 4.0 VG, then 3.0 G/VG would be $150. I think that's fair. And even further, a 3.5 VG- would be $175 (halfway between 3.0 and 4.0). I also include shipping costs in the price.

 

Here are some recent examples of eBay sales:

Star-Spangled Comics #90 (Batman cover) in F/VF: guide is $282, sold on 4/25 for $220 (78% of guide)

Batman 100 CGC 2.5: guide is $312, sold on 4/22 for $279 (89%)

Green Lantern CGC 9.0: guide is $140, sold on 3/9 for $133 & on 4/21 for $132 (95%)

Batman 169 in F: guides for $39, sold on 4/22 for $36 (92%)

 

Not an astonishing revelation, but the kind of thing I find interesting.

[aardvark88]

In sum, eBay is a crapshoot. Sometimes better to sell books in vf or vg raw vs. extra fixed cost of slab on the vf or vg comic. Timing & effect of movie hype changes top bidding every week.

[garthgantu]

Very interesting, Rob... thanks for the insights. I've got all my comics, with grades, entered into an Excel spreadsheet. I've got the prices based on Overstreet for the past three years, and just add a new column each year when the new guide comes out. It's fascinating to sort and view the data in various ways: how much did VF or better Batmans go up over the past 3 years? How much did all my 9.4 or above books increase?

 

I think that in the case of grades below VF, the Overstreet guide is pretty accurate. When it comes to stuff in VF or better that is from 1980 or older, the Overstreet guide is generally conservative, and if you factor in CGCed books, it's completely out of touch. Or is the prices being paid for CGCed books in 8.0 and better that's out of touch?

 

It would also be interesting to review different categories of comics as they sell on eBay; how do comics featuring photo covers of cowboys, movie/TV stars, etc. do ? How about comics related to old cartoon series? There are some categories that never cease to amaze me, like Bob Hope and Jerry Lewis comics... the collectors of these items must be in their 70s at least, yet they pay high premiums on a regular basis.

 

All very interesting.

[sfilosa]

I do this same type analysis on almost all Silver Age Marvel titles. Since I am a high grade collector, I only track sales from VF to NM and only CGC graded books.

 

That's when the O/S guide gets really off. Usually a VF/NM goes for the NM prices. This really isn't unusual since the cost to get a book slabbed is atleast $25-30 dollars of the price.

 

CGC NM- books go for around 2 times the NM guide price and NM books go for around 3 times NM guide prices. Of course different issue have different multiples which is why I track all issues and I definitely use my analysis when I bid on any book.

 

Keep up the research.

 

[garthgantu]

In defense of the Overstreet Guide, and this is pretty obvious of course, but the listed price for say, VF/NM 9.0 is probably just about right, if you're talking about unslabbed books. I don't think it's really fair to describe Overstreet's prices as being inaccurate when it comes to CGCed high grade, 'cause that's a whole different beast. I'd hate to be in charge of THAT price guide! You're gonna [!@#%^&^] someone off no matter what - collectors/investors if you lowball, or dealers if you list too high...

 

The new $7/month service from Heritage, for the monthly (weekly?) reports on slabbed comic sales, could be the best investment any of us ever make...?

 

Garthgantu

[sfilosa]

As I said, I actually do my own research (because I like to).

 

Overstreet Guide has NEVER (and I mean going back to the mid-70's when I was a teen-ager collecting comic books) been very accurate on the NM (or Mint back in the 70's) prices.

 

As I also said, I think their pricing is fairly correct up to the VF/NM range (but you have to factor in some slabbing cost on low value books).

 

Because the books I am tracking (i.e. Silver Age Marvels) are in general, fairly easy to come by, buying at or below fair market value is important to me.

 

When it comes to Golden Age books that are not easy to come by, I might pay more than I want to, since it could be a very long time before I see another copy again.