Reflexion: If a day this mess fall definitly the moderns will win 1 1

[BA773]

if the market fall definitly a day as the stamps did and that everything goes to the bottom except a fraction of keys, the books who are already at the bottom couldnt fall more than they are already. I mean a dollar bin book will be a dollar bin book for ever, so there no risk to lost value on it... but a book who worth around 50 have a good margin for falling 

You follow me? 

[CAHokie]

On 3/31/2024 at 2:55 PM, BA773 said:

You follow me? 

Trying to….

If a $1,000 book goes to $100, and a $100 to $10, a dollar bin can easily go to 10 for a dollar.

[Ken Aldred]

Problem would be that at 10 cents a copy and factoring in dealer operating costs, it wouldn’t make much sense for them to haul 10 cent boxes around to shows.

[CAHokie]

On 3/31/2024 at 4:04 PM, Ken Aldred said:

Problem would be that at 10 cents a copy and factoring in dealer operating costs, it wouldn’t make much sense for them to haul 10 cent boxes around to shows.

If the market crashes that bad, they might not travel to shows at all. 

[thehumantorch]

On 3/31/2024 at 12:55 PM, BA773 said:

if the market fall definitly a day as the stamps did and that everything goes to the bottom except a fraction of keys, the books who are already at the bottom couldnt fall more than they are already. I mean a dollar bin book will be a dollar bin book for ever, so there no risk to lost value on it... but a book who worth around 50 have a good margin for falling 

You follow me? 

I guess I follow you.  If I have a bunch of worthless stuff it can't fall any further and will always be worthless.  Of course all that worthless bulk takes up a ton of room and is tough to sell.  A dollar over and over takes a long time to add up.

And while the prices of key SA or BA or MA have generally dropped 50% the prices of many precode horror and quality GA books has doubled or more during that same time frame.

For illustration here's Startling Terror Tales #11.  I have a 4.5 that I thought was worth $4,000 to $5000 based on 3 to 4 year old sales of a 2.5, 3.0, 3.5, and a 5.0.  Then a 6.5 recently sold for $33,000, a 4.5 staples cleaned sells for almost $10,000 and a 4.0 sells for almost $11,000.  And you can see the price doubled between 2020 and 2023 on the 4.0 and 4.5 staples cleaned.  While I don't see any sales this year on GPA I wouldn't be surprised to see another healthy increase.  Based on those sales I believe my book is worth approx $15k, 3 times what I thought it was worth a couple years ago. 

And while I love all eras of comics and have a fair slice of all eras in my collection I'll always consider a classic book like Startling Terror Tales #11 and it's ilk to be virtually immune to price drops.  I like owning classic books that rarely come up for sale and when they do they sell almost instantly.

		Rating		2022 Avg	2023 Avg	12m Avg	90Day Avg	Last sale
	UNI	9.2	River City pedigree	--	--	--	--	$6882Jul 2009
	UNI	8.5		--	--	--	--	$19200Nov 2021
	UNI	8.5	River City pedigree	--	--	--	--	$2975Dec 2013
	UNI	8.5	River City pedigree / Variant Cover	--	--	--	--	$1625Jun 2003
	UNI	8.0		--	--	--	--	$1972Jun 2013
	UNI	7.0		--	--	--	--	$18000Nov 2021
	UNI	6.5		$156001	$333501	$333501	--	$33350Aug 2023
	UNI	6.0		--	--	--	--	$4525Dec 2019
	SP	6.0		--	$31001	$31001	--	$3100Jul 2023
	UNI	5.5		--	--	--	--	$3457Dec 2019
	UNI	5.0		--	--	--	--	$4560Feb 2021
	C	5.0		--	--	--	--	$950Jan 2018
	UNI	5.0	Northford Pedigree	--	--	--	--	$368Aug 2003
	UNI	4.5		--	--	--	--	$621Mar 2014
	C	4.5	Staples Cleaned	$44481	$94991	$94991	--	$9499Aug 2023
	UNI	4.0		$52801	$108001	$108001	--	$10800Aug 2023
	C1	4.0		--	--	--	--	$2472Dec 2021
	UNI	3.5		--	--	--	--	$2250Mar 2020
	UNI	3.0		--	--	--	--	$1750Feb 2020
	UNI	2.5		$32262	--	--	--	$2851Aug 2022
	UNI	2.0		--	$32011	$32011	--	$3201Oct 2023
	UNI	1.8		$33471	$29001	$29001	--	$2900Aug 2023
	UNI	1.5		--	$23052	$23052	--	$2750Aug 2023
	UNI	1.0		$20001	$21352	$21903	$23001	$2300Mar 2024
	SA	1.0		--	--	--	--	$88Jul 2008

 

I could show you some similar charts for classic Timelys, other precode Horror, Matt Baker romance, LB Cole covers.  And I believe we just had a record sale for an Action #1.  Comic collecting isn't dying, the money has just shifted to classic GA.  And in MHO now's the time to start buying up key SA and BA.

Edited March 31 by thehumantorch

[shadroch]

Has the market for the very highest-valued stamps crashed?  I know stamp collecting is a dead hobby, but I think the high-end still has significant value.

[BA773]

On 3/31/2024 at 11:04 PM, shadroch said:

Has the market for the very highest-valued stamps crashed?  I know stamp collecting is a dead hobby, but I think the high-end still has significant value.

Yes you right but i was speaking of the difference between random silver and random modern books, batman 227 would keep value but what s the argument on favor of a 212 which a nice copy is today sold for 25/30... 

Edited March 31 by BA773

[shadroch]

On 3/31/2024 at 2:52 PM, BA773 said:

Yes you right but i was speaking of the difference between random silver and random modern books, batman 227 would keep value but what s the argument on favor of a 212 which a nice copy is today sold for 25/30... 

Make it your responsibility to bring younger collectors into the hobby.

[Ken Aldred]

On 3/31/2024 at 9:08 PM, CAHokie said:

If the market crashes that bad, they might not travel to shows at all. 

Yup.  I already felt I was going too far into Chicken Little territory with my post.

[Qalyar]

On 3/31/2024 at 4:04 PM, shadroch said:

Has the market for the very highest-valued stamps crashed?  I know stamp collecting is a dead hobby, but I think the high-end still has significant value.

I've talked about this elsewhere, but the problem with philately is that the number of collectors has sharply dropped. Twenty years ago, when stamp shows and even brick and mortar stores were common, most collectors weren't in a position to buy truly exceptional copies of "key" issues. But that's okay, because there are a LOT of what are essentially mid-grade stamps for all but the rarest of the rare. With those collectors largely out of the market entirely, demand for best-in-class pieces is... pretty much exactly the same as it always was. But demand for the stamp collecting equivalent of "reader copies" has dropped at the same time that a lot of old personal collections were dumped into the market. Net result? If you want a set of, say, the Columbian Expo issue in really nice-looking -- but not flawless -- grades, they've never* been cheaper. If you want a set of them in PSE 100 or 100J, that's still going to set you back solid chunks of change per stamp (for the values that even exist in those grades).

Exceptional collectibles generally retain value even through market contractions or collapses. Collectibles that are "good enough", do not.

*Okay, almost never. $5 in 1893 is about $170 now due to inflation, and you're still not getting a $5 Columbian that doesn't look like a dog chewed on it for less than $300. So I guess "on the day of issue", they were cheaper. But still...

[shadroch]

On 3/31/2024 at 1:04 PM, Ken Aldred said:

Problem would be that at 10 cents a copy and factoring in dealer operating costs, it wouldn’t make much sense for them to haul 10 cent boxes around to shows.

It's a good workout. Why pay for a gym when you can load your car with thirty-pound boxes a couple times a weekend?

[the blob]

On 3/31/2024 at 5:55 PM, shadroch said:

Make it your responsibility to bring younger collectors into the hobby.

And not just speculators and cover collectors. I know there are folks who have been doing this for years who are these, a few people on these boards, but having some sort of nostalgia for the characters, stories, and genre in general helps keep you in it. I will admit I have not read a whole lot of comics in the last 20 or so years, I would not say none, but a tiny fraction of what I have bought for sure, the reality is if my wife saw me reading comics she would immediately come up with a chore I could be doing (she seems to be more forgiving about graphic novels/TBs), but my childhood and and middle school I definitely read a ton of this stuff and then got back into it in the early 90s. Here I am 30 years later, still at it(although cooled off lately, I'm just not feeling like buying when I am dealing with college tuition)

[Book Guy]

On 3/31/2024 at 1:24 PM, thehumantorch said:

I guess I follow you.  If I have a bunch of worthless stuff it can't fall any further and will always be worthless.  Of course all that worthless bulk takes up a ton of room and is tough to sell.  A dollar over and over takes a long time to add up.

And while the prices of key SA or BA or MA have generally dropped 50% the prices of many precode horror and quality GA books has doubled or more during that same time frame.

For illustration here's Startling Terror Tales #11.  I have a 4.5 that I thought was worth $4,000 to $5000 based on 3 to 4 year old sales of a 2.5, 3.0, 3.5, and a 5.0.  Then a 6.5 recently sold for $33,000, a 4.5 staples cleaned sells for almost $10,000 and a 4.0 sells for almost $11,000.  And you can see the price doubled between 2020 and 2023 on the 4.0 and 4.5 staples cleaned.  While I don't see any sales this year on GPA I wouldn't be surprised to see another healthy increase.  Based on those sales I believe my book is worth approx $15k, 3 times what I thought it was worth a couple years ago. 

And while I love all eras of comics and have a fair slice of all eras in my collection I'll always consider a classic book like Startling Terror Tales #11 and it's ilk to be virtually immune to price drops.  I like owning classic books that rarely come up for sale and when they do they sell almost instantly.

		Rating		2022 Avg	2023 Avg	12m Avg	90Day Avg	Last sale
	UNI	9.2	River City pedigree	--	--	--	--	$6882Jul 2009
	UNI	8.5		--	--	--	--	$19200Nov 2021
	UNI	8.5	River City pedigree	--	--	--	--	$2975Dec 2013
	UNI	8.5	River City pedigree / Variant Cover	--	--	--	--	$1625Jun 2003
	UNI	8.0		--	--	--	--	$1972Jun 2013
	UNI	7.0		--	--	--	--	$18000Nov 2021
	UNI	6.5		$156001	$333501	$333501	--	$33350Aug 2023
	UNI	6.0		--	--	--	--	$4525Dec 2019
	SP	6.0		--	$31001	$31001	--	$3100Jul 2023
	UNI	5.5		--	--	--	--	$3457Dec 2019
	UNI	5.0		--	--	--	--	$4560Feb 2021
	C	5.0		--	--	--	--	$950Jan 2018
	UNI	5.0	Northford Pedigree	--	--	--	--	$368Aug 2003
	UNI	4.5		--	--	--	--	$621Mar 2014
	C	4.5	Staples Cleaned	$44481	$94991	$94991	--	$9499Aug 2023
	UNI	4.0		$52801	$108001	$108001	--	$10800Aug 2023
	C1	4.0		--	--	--	--	$2472Dec 2021
	UNI	3.5		--	--	--	--	$2250Mar 2020
	UNI	3.0		--	--	--	--	$1750Feb 2020
	UNI	2.5		$32262	--	--	--	$2851Aug 2022
	UNI	2.0		--	$32011	$32011	--	$3201Oct 2023
	UNI	1.8		$33471	$29001	$29001	--	$2900Aug 2023
	UNI	1.5		--	$23052	$23052	--	$2750Aug 2023
	UNI	1.0		$20001	$21352	$21903	$23001	$2300Mar 2024
	SA	1.0		--	--	--	--	$88Jul 2008

 

I could show you some similar charts for classic Timelys, other precode Horror, Matt Baker romance, LB Cole covers.  And I believe we just had a record sale for an Action #1.  Comic collecting isn't dying, the money has just shifted to classic GA.  And in MHO now's the time to start buying up key SA and BA.

I have the poster!

[the blob]

On 3/31/2024 at 6:46 PM, shadroch said:

It's a good workout. Why pay for a gym when you can load your car with thirty-pound boxes a couple times a weekend?

I remember a late 90s St. Paul's church show where Zurzulo (pre-Metropolis) had 10 cent books. It actually wasn't all junk , a fair amount of 70s B and C tier titles (I think he had started the day at 25 cents and made them 10 cents at the end, which got my attention). I bought like 300 books, which were a pain to carry home in addition to the 100 or so I had already bought (I may have taken a cab, but I still had to drag two long boxes to the street and I am pretty sure I did not have a hand cart). I had actually run out of money and he was ok with me promising to pay him $20 of it the next show I saw him (which makes me think I walked home with the long boxes on my shoulders). Ahh, the good old days, when I wasn't physically broken. 

 

Edited April 1 by the blob

[the blob]

On 3/31/2024 at 4:24 PM, thehumantorch said:

I guess I follow you.  If I have a bunch of worthless stuff it can't fall any further and will always be worthless.  Of course all that worthless bulk takes up a ton of room and is tough to sell.  A dollar over and over takes a long time to add up.

And while the prices of key SA or BA or MA have generally dropped 50% the prices of many precode horror and quality GA books has doubled or more during that same time frame.

For illustration here's Startling Terror Tales #11.  I have a 4.5 that I thought was worth $4,000 to $5000 based on 3 to 4 year old sales of a 2.5, 3.0, 3.5, and a 5.0.  Then a 6.5 recently sold for $33,000, a 4.5 staples cleaned sells for almost $10,000 and a 4.0 sells for almost $11,000.  And you can see the price doubled between 2020 and 2023 on the 4.0 and 4.5 staples cleaned.  While I don't see any sales this year on GPA I wouldn't be surprised to see another healthy increase.  Based on those sales I believe my book is worth approx $15k, 3 times what I thought it was worth a couple years ago. 

And while I love all eras of comics and have a fair slice of all eras in my collection I'll always consider a classic book like Startling Terror Tales #11 and it's ilk to be virtually immune to price drops.  I like owning classic books that rarely come up for sale and when they do they sell almost instantly.

		Rating		2022 Avg	2023 Avg	12m Avg	90Day Avg	Last sale
	UNI	9.2	River City pedigree	--	--	--	--	$6882Jul 2009
	UNI	8.5		--	--	--	--	$19200Nov 2021
	UNI	8.5	River City pedigree	--	--	--	--	$2975Dec 2013
	UNI	8.5	River City pedigree / Variant Cover	--	--	--	--	$1625Jun 2003
	UNI	8.0		--	--	--	--	$1972Jun 2013
	UNI	7.0		--	--	--	--	$18000Nov 2021
	UNI	6.5		$156001	$333501	$333501	--	$33350Aug 2023
	UNI	6.0		--	--	--	--	$4525Dec 2019
	SP	6.0		--	$31001	$31001	--	$3100Jul 2023
	UNI	5.5		--	--	--	--	$3457Dec 2019
	UNI	5.0		--	--	--	--	$4560Feb 2021
	C	5.0		--	--	--	--	$950Jan 2018
	UNI	5.0	Northford Pedigree	--	--	--	--	$368Aug 2003
	UNI	4.5		--	--	--	--	$621Mar 2014
	C	4.5	Staples Cleaned	$44481	$94991	$94991	--	$9499Aug 2023
	UNI	4.0		$52801	$108001	$108001	--	$10800Aug 2023
	C1	4.0		--	--	--	--	$2472Dec 2021
	UNI	3.5		--	--	--	--	$2250Mar 2020
	UNI	3.0		--	--	--	--	$1750Feb 2020
	UNI	2.5		$32262	--	--	--	$2851Aug 2022
	UNI	2.0		--	$32011	$32011	--	$3201Oct 2023
	UNI	1.8		$33471	$29001	$29001	--	$2900Aug 2023
	UNI	1.5		--	$23052	$23052	--	$2750Aug 2023
	UNI	1.0		$20001	$21352	$21903	$23001	$2300Mar 2024
	SA	1.0		--	--	--	--	$88Jul 2008

 

I could show you some similar charts for classic Timelys, other precode Horror, Matt Baker romance, LB Cole covers.  And I believe we just had a record sale for an Action #1.  Comic collecting isn't dying, the money has just shifted to classic GA.  And in MHO now's the time to start buying up key SA and BA.

Where are those keys vs. 2019? I think we should stop basing this "things have tanked" on the madness prices of late 2020/21 that presented some weird historical anomaly. Things felt pretty good in 2019. I know, things are always measured by the peakity peak of any given madness and if you bought at those 2021 prices, ouch, but still...

 

Edited April 1 by the blob

[thehumantorch]

On 4/1/2024 at 3:41 PM, Book Guy said:

I have the poster!

It's usually good news when they're making posters or fridge magnets of issues you own..

[thehumantorch]

On 4/1/2024 at 3:46 PM, the blob said:

Where are those keys vs. 2019? I think we should stop basing this "things have tanked" on the madness prices of late 2020/21 that presented some weird historical anomaly. Things felt pretty good in 2019. I know, things are always measured by the peakity peak of any given madness and if you bought at those 2021 prices, ouch, but still...

 

And I'd agree.  Covid spiked prices and we've now dropped back close to the long term trend line.  Maybe a little lower because I suspect some of the guys who got in to flip were under water and left a lot poorer and some of those buyers are gone for good.

[thehumantorch]

On 3/31/2024 at 12:55 PM, BA773 said:

if the market fall definitly a day as the stamps did and that everything goes to the bottom except a fraction of keys, the books who are already at the bottom couldnt fall more than they are already. I mean a dollar bin book will be a dollar bin book for ever, so there no risk to lost value on it... but a book who worth around 50 have a good margin for falling 

You follow me? 

Hey BAzz, could you start a thread about comics in Switzerland and/or Europe.  I'd love to know more.

[the blob]

On 4/1/2024 at 9:18 PM, thehumantorch said:

And I'd agree.  Covid spiked prices and we've now dropped back close to the long term trend line.  Maybe a little lower because I suspect some of the guys who got in to flip were under water and left a lot poorer and some of those buyers are gone for good.

All I hear is down from some 20/21 peak, I'm more interested in how far down from 2019. Sellers had a goooood run on a lot stuff from 2012 - 2021 with a little blip in 2020 down and a few other blips. 

[thehumantorch]

On 4/1/2024 at 10:37 PM, the blob said:

All I hear is down from some 20/21 peak, I'm more interested in how far down from 2019. Sellers had a goooood run on a lot stuff from 2012 - 2021 with a little blip in 2020 down and a few other blips. 

I decided to check.  Picked Fantastic Four 48 because it's a key and it's common and selling all the time.

In 6.0 it was worth an average of $1900 in Dec 2020 and Jan 2024 it was worth an average of $1700.  So it's worth slightly less than before the price runup which would make sense considering prices tend to run too high and then run too low.