cgc updated census observations

[g-man]

FYI

 

ASM #129 - sure enough there is a 9.8 as stated previously.

superman #199 - a 9.6 exists

captain marvel #33 - a 9.8 turned up

hero for hire #1 - a 9.8 turned up (unknown if it was there already, i forget)

 

still no 9.6 Flash #175

still no 9.6 dark mansion #1

stil no 9.8 DD #43

still no 9.6 detective #400

 

*only 1 9.6 of ASM #151!*

 

any other observations?

 

[aardvark88]

Very surprised there is no DD 43 cgc 9.8 yet as Chuck had a lot of these vfnm o-w pgs.

[blowout]

*only 1 9.6 of ASM #151!*

 

So what?

Why would people be submitting this book in large quantities? I hope you are not statring to think the book is actually scare in grade, because it is not. Just ask NativeNewYorker.

[murph0]

He has a ton but the one I looked at as a NM+ probably would've more likely gotten a NM. Probably likely that he's got a few NM+'s and a lot of NM's.

 

Brian

[joe_collector]

>>Why would people be submitting this book in large quantities?

 

Yeah, ASM 149 (end of Spidey Clone) is a real cut-off for many collectors, and I wouldn't send in any ASM 150-300 if wasn't a 30/35-cent variant or the first app of Hobby or Venom.

[g-man]

not at all....i see plenty, just stating a fact that there are no certified 9.8s and only 1 9.6. Take it easy......

[blowout]

Yo I wasn't trying to dis you, just wondering why the interest in that particular issue.

[Mushroom]

Still no ASM #63 in 9.6.

[ericc123]

I got hammered no the X-Men #11. Two more 9.0s a couple of 9.2s one or two 9.4s

so sad so sad.

 

Ericc123

[spider9698]

I have submitted a half dozen ASM 151 in hopes of getting the elusive 9.6 but have only received 9.4s. Granted, it is not an issue in high demand, there are still many collectors out there that would covet a 9.6 for their collections.

 

[sfilosa]

Please be aware that the census numbers on most books will look different 5 to 10 years from now.

 

Most longtime collectors have no desire to CGC their books until they are ready to sell (which might only be when they die). Why would they 1) risk having thier comics damaged in transit or handling 2) pay thousands of dollars to certify, just so "WE" know how many high grade books there are.

 

 

Example:

 

Most EC comics show around 4 books in VF/NM or better. There are on average 10-12 Gaines copies of all of these books, plus White Mountain and other pedigrees. Plus all the other none pedigree high grade books. Ten years from now, it wouldn't surprise me if there were 40-50 VF/NM or better copies of these books.

 

And when it comes to Silver Age, isn't it amazing how many "New" pedigree collections have been discovered in just the past ten years.And these pedigrees have multiple copies of some books.

 

Right now, I would estimate that the census is showing about 10% of the true high grade population at best.

 

 

 

[murph0]

That's all speculation at best. We assume there's super high grade copies out there still but we forget that most of the grading that was a NM in the pre CGC days is actually a VF. While I'm sure it's true census numbers will increase in all categories, I think we can truly only speculate on how many true high grade copies are left out there.

 

Brian

[valiantman]

Sure, CGC counts will be higher in the future...but what about the percentages?

 

If 5% of all the graded copies of a particular comic at this point are CGC 9.x or higher...

should be expect that 5% from all copies in the future? More than 5%? Less than 5%?

 

For example...

In the current census, Hulk 181 has 4.3% of all graded copies at 9.6 or higher.

(52 copies, out of 1196 graded --- Universal grades only)

 

Should we estimate that 4.3% of all existing copies are in 9.6 or higher condition?

 

If so, assuming 250,000 copies exist, then there are 10,000 copies of

Hulk 181 that are "out there" in 9.6 or higher.

 

Is that possible?

 

Sure, the number of Hulk 181's graded 9.6 or higher will increase...but at what rate?

And percentage-wise won't they be rarer? Or should we expect 10,000 someday?

[drbanner]

Whoa...this thread...deja vu...all over again??? Seems this topic has been discussed once or 329 times here before, but I just wanna know if there's a lack of high grade silver/bronze DC's in the marketplace (and in the CGC census) because:

 

1) the books are scarce;

 

2) the books aren't in demand so no one's selling; or

 

3) there are just as many high grade DC's as there are Marvels, but the DC's are simply all locked up in collections and no one's selling!!

 

Hmmm???

[murph0]

It'll be a reoccuring theme for years to come. I don't agree with the people who think that less then 50 percent of the Marvels out there are graded. I think as far as the hotter Marvel titles go it's more like 70-80 percent graded. I don't know what the deal is with DC's but I just can't see them being as rare as they appear to be right now? But I guess I don't know what it'd take to get copies to come out? An huge jump in prices?

 

Brian

[g-man]

i have a few high grade bronze DCs on ebay not and recently sold a few others (GL #59) and still have the Det #400. Every show I go to or collector I converse with I inquire about DCs....usual answer is " I have some but not high grade...."

[Warlord]

 

Re: risk having their comics damaged in transit or handling

 

This is one of the things about CGC that has puzzled me. As I understand it, CGC does not offer insured shipping to return the books to the owner. Is that correct? I see that as a strong disincentive for anyone who has to have their books mailed back to them. For those who can drop off & pick up their books it is not, of course, a factor. And I suppose that if you are shipping really high value books then you will want to splurge on some sort of special transportation arrangements.

 

Has anyone had any problems with losses (damage or missing, etc) on books being returned to them from CGC? Some of the boxes I receive from USPS or UPS are so badly damaged that I would be concerned about sending something valuable without some mitigation to the risk of loss and damage.

 

While I'm asking about CGC in this census thread, I have another question that I've wondered about. How are some of the cumulative population statistics that I've seen reported generated, or where are they found? For instance, I've seen it written that CGC has graded 300,000 comics. Or that, out of that total, n-thousand were from publisher X. Or that n-thousand are issues published prior to 1970 and so on.

 

Are folks painstakingly tabulating these numbers? Just making them up? Programmatically mining the census data and then doing number crunching? Or is that sort of census data available someplace where I haven't found it yet?

 

[valiantman]

I don't agree with the people who think that less then 50 percent of the Marvels out there are graded. I think as far as the hotter Marvel titles go it's more like 70-80 percent graded.

 

I guess I'm confused by this...

 

If you asked everyone in the world who owned a key Silver/Bronze Age Marvel

give you a call at a toll-free number, you'd get less than a 2% reply.

(Standard marketing response rate...)

 

So, why would 50+% of these people check out CGC, send their comics in,

pay money to CGC, and wait for a third-party opinion on condition?

 

What you're really saying is that about 2% of the collectors controlled 50% to 80%

of the key books, or at least handled them at some point in the past five years...

and they were responsible for having the CGC grading done.

 

Is that possible?

 

Either way, if Hulk 181 was in your estimates, with 1,196 already CGC graded...

(and your estimate that 70%-80% are already graded)

you're saying that only 1,500 to 1,750 copies exist. Huh?

[murph0]

But on the flip side you're basically telling me full print runs of every single book exist? Doubtful with the exception of moderns. I'm more specifically talking about Silver and H.G. then really about the lower range stuff (which I really don't have an interest in).

And where is this 2 percent number coming from? The response to CGC has been very large especially for Marvel books. There simply aren't going to be 50,000 copies of ASM 1 out there.

 

Brian

[valiantman]

And where is this 2 percent number coming from?

 

Nowhere specific, really...

Here's a site with some approximate marking response numbers...

http://www.smesupportconcepts.com/advertising.html

 

All I'm saying is that CGC has only been around a few years...

and there's no way that the books could have already been 70%-80% graded.

 

People who HAVEN'T used CGC are plentiful...

1) Collectors who know about CGC but don't trust and/or need a third-party

grading evaluation of their collection.

2) Casual collectors who haven't been actively involved in comics for 5+ years.

3) Serious collectors/investors who haven't been actively involved for 5+ years.

4) Comic book dealers who are afraid to find out all their personal NM copies

are actually VF or less.

 

Even "people who have used the internet" is still less than 80%.

I'd say realistically, with just a few exceptions (Action #1)...

probably no more than 25% of "all existing copies" of keys have been to CGC.

(Though a bigger percent of the highest-grade copies have probably been there...

who actually needs CGC for a fair copy of AF15?)