cgc updated census observations

[Foolkiller]

I first started entering the silver age/bronze age books in 1997, and when I first started, I bought "a" copy (usually the cheap one) in VG shape... but it was around then when there was some depression in the market. The most memorable purchase was when I was offered Spidey #s 51-100 in VF/NM and some (like 96-98) were NM+... for $200. Which was rediculous even then... but the guy came off the street, sold it to the store for $100, not knowing what they were worth, and the store owner, who wasn't that business savvy, sold them to me for double his cost. I tell that story because it makes me believe that there are many high grade books out there for a great deal of the silver/bronze age. Early pre 1966 stuff is very hard to find in high grade, and I certainly think it will always be hard to find NM 9.4 stuff... but as for the rest, I think it's fairly available... maybe not right now, but I know it's out there. I don't have the same disposable income to spend on comics anymore, and to be honest, I've been priced out of the cgc high end market. My collection is an investment, but I buy mostly books that are in VF/VF+, a respectable grade that I can later sell, but also I can afford and enjoy. Unless I can get NM books at guide, I rarely even buy them anymore... and unless I'm lucky, I don't find those books all that often.

 

I think there will be a major price correction in the next few years... whether or not that's a crash... who knows. It depends on if the speculators are going to completely bail and collectors panic with their high grade cgc stuff.

[Aman619]

I've yet to find a dealer that says they've had a fairly easy time getting high grade material.

 

Dealers complain they cant find them I think because they are not for sale right now. They are really saying they cant get their hands on them...not that they arent out there in greater numbers than the census now suggests. Ask them the question that way and see what the answer is.

 

I agree with you on the changing grading standards. Many of my NM books are now 8.0s and 9.0s. I'm disappointed how few are 9.2 and 9.4. That's probably true for most of the 200 collectors I hypothesized (sp) exist. but there are still enough as I say to pump up the census.

 

[murph0]

I think of the ones you mentioned that may get bumped up heavily, those titles are going to be the books that were more heavily collected when released and for the most part are still the most heavily collected back issue. I doubt if there's an influx of 200 more copies of ASM 88 in 9.4 over the next couple years it will do much if anything to the price since there are so many collectors out there for ASM (regardless of whether there's a good sequel)

 

Brian

[Aman619]

welllll..first, in my "200 collector" thing I didnt mean to imply that ALL 200 would be 9.4s...just that out of these 200 collections there would be MANY books that will swell the high end of the census.

 

but I have to disagree that 200 more 9.4s wouldn't lower the price on that issue. I agree that they would find homes in collections due to demand, but not at current multiples that are based on current census numbers. Im sure you would negotiate down any dealer who priced it the same as when the census said there were only 10 9.4s, as opposed to 210 copies, right?

 

There are quiet a few 50+ year old collectors who were already 18 when these books came out. By then we had been buying our comics for 10 years, and reached a point where the new ones just got a quick read-through and went in the pile, still in nice shape...and sat there for years. We were long past the time we'd roll em up in our back pocket or fold the covers back to read em with one hand ( at least the Mary Jane issues! )

 

...but we'll never really know how many there are. I like the census cause it gives us a glimpse. but its only as reliable as the sample its created from.

[shadroch]

The books in my collection are neither lost nor waiting to be discovered. Do you believe that the majority of collectors have submitted the majority of their Silver Age comics for slabbing? If I had a HG AF15 and was not interested in selling,why would I spend 100s to certify it. If I only had 1, it would not matter what price I could get for it,as I would not sell.The fact that dealers are having trouble locating Good merchandise may be an indication that the days of the great warehouse hoards are coming to an end, but means nothing when used to address the numbers of a particular book. I think most books submitted to CGC are by dealers or collectors looking to SEll,rather than by long term owners looking to see how their books rate. CGC is a good way to buy books site onseen,but their census is an indication of books on the market rather than books in collections.

[garthgantu]

I think the estimate of 200 collectors with high-grade runs of SA comics is woefully low. I would guess that there are 200 such collectors in California alone, probably more. Do they all have NM 9.4 copies of most SA titles? No. But collectively they've got complete high-grade runs of just about everything, I would think.

 

On the subject of "NMs" of 5-20 years ago now turning out to be VFs or so, what does the collective intelligence of this board think about THAT grade? Assuming that there IS some sort of depression in the truly high-grade market, as more books get slabbed and the census numbers swell, would this necessarily impact the "mid-high grade" prices, in the VF- to VF/NM- range?

 

If not, perhaps the VF grade will turn out to be as lucrative in the long run as high grade? In other words, if you bought ASM 90-99 for guide, and they appreciate at 15% a year, over a decade you've made pretty decent money. Whereas you could spend the same amount on one 9.4 copy of ASM 99, and if that part of the market suffers a drop, you might break even over ten years. Just speculation of course, but I wonder if eventually NM 9.4 copies of many key titles will be viewed as so inaccessible to the 'average' collector that VF becomes a grade worth striving for...?

 

Garthgantu

[sfilosa]

The real truth to making money in comics uses to be two-fold.

 

1) Buy at a discount to guide (or market value).

2) Buy a VF book and sell as a VF/NM

 

Let me give you an example.

 

Assumption:

Market Value for book in VF = $50 and in VF/NM = $100

 

Dealer/Collector finds a seller to sell VF book at a 20% discount. Therefore they buy the book for $40. They then sell the book as a VF/NM for $100.

 

Notice:

 

1) $10 profit by buying book at discount

2) $50 profit by overgrading (or undergrading from original seller)

 

Regardless of what anyone tells you, this happened (happens) all the time.

 

Why to do you think we seemed to have discussions all the time about how books are more tightly graded now. Because we all bought books that were overgraded all the time. You either accepted overgraded books or got out of collecting (which is what I did for about four years).

 

I would guess if you got most of your books graded by CGC, the ones that come closes to the grade you felt it was when you bought it would be:

 

The ones you bought at a store or convention (not the ones ordered through the mail).

 

 

 

[garthgantu]

I don't think the discussions now taking place about tight grading has become have any real bearing on the notion that sellers overgraded in the past (or present). The fact is, *everyone* overgraded in the past, but only in hindsight; at the time, people believed they were grading reasonably strictly and accurately. I remember buying $40 worth of SA Marvels from Robert Bell in 1975. His ads and his catalog prominently stated that "every book I sell is in NM condition." Well, looking back, he was wrong - much of his stuff would now be viewed as VF - NM- 9.2.

 

Was Robert Bell ripping people off by overgrading? Not at all - at the time he was correct. He was regarded as one of the most reputable dealers going, although he always charged more than almost anyone else. (Of course it's all relative; the Daredevil #2 that I got in about VF+ for $6 was pricey at the time, as were the ASM #s 25 and 26, in NM- for $2 each

 

Garthgantu

[Bronty]

I agree with some of what you're saying, dealers who graded strictly by the standards that were then in place were not overgrading. HOWEVER, those dealers were the exception! The lack of a visible standard like cgc meant that a LOT of people overgraded even when compared to the standards in place then! After all, the novice collector/ non-expert dealer only had overstreet's text definitions to go by, and those can be interpreted very differently by different people.

 

There's an important distinction to make here that's not really captured in your post...

 

1) Grading standards today are more strict than those of yesteryear; however

2) Even by those looser standards, overgrading was pretty rampant!

 

But by any standard, $2 for a hg silver spidey is a damn good deal!

[chrisco37]

The lack of a visible standard like cgc meant that a LOT of people overgraded

 

I think that's the key right there. While we all know that CGC is far from perfect, they have given people a visual that is relatively consistant. Grading has gotten much tighter because of this. The OS grading guide was also a great benefit to collecting.

 

Before OS came out with their grading guide, the only reference I had to a grading scale were the short descriptions given in the OS Price Guide or any of the other numerous pricing publications (I'm talking around 1988-90) and my own personal opinions and preferences.

 

Chris

[aardvark88]

But Howard the Duck #1 was a better short term flip back in 1975-76. All relative to what is being hyped through the yin-yang at the time.

[Aman619]

I think the estimate of 200 collectors with high-grade runs of SA comics is woefully low

 

GOOD! I tried to pick a number low enough to be accepted widely...but large enough to STILL swell the census. Glad you agree.