stamps... blazing a trail for comics?

[Aman619]

okay, I know very little about stamps. But I do know they are widely collected and there are quite a few very valuable pieces. I read a news story today (WALL ST JOURNAL I Think) about capital gains for collectibles. It was describig the new tax laws that delay the tax after selling when you immediately use the proceeds to buy a similar investment piece. This includes artwork, real estate, and collectibles.

 

anyway, they wrote about the guy who paid 935K a few years ago for the stamp block of the inverted Jenny biplane. Then it states that he recently sold it for 3 million. Now the tax issues aside, what inrterested me was that here was a famous stamp worth about a million that still had 200% upside at that price.

 

I used to feel our comics had similar potential. But of late, Ive gone on record that it appears the latest price spikes have used up nearly all comics future price potential. But - - is it not possible, like real estate prices and here, stamps, that todays prices are a plateau from which further heights will be reached?

 

Are comics as worthy as stamps etc to reach such prices as 3 million..? for real? not just a one-time offer from a rich fool to a savvy comics lover not willing to sell? Or are we pretty much all in on prices right now?

 

I know we have gone over this plenty of time, but Im really intrigued that the stam could go from 1 to 3 million . A million sure seems like a good enuff price to me.

[tth2]

of late, Ive gone on record that it appears the latest price spikes have used up nearly all comics future price potential. But - - is it not possible, like real estate prices and here, stamps, that todays prices are a plateau from which further heights will be reached?

Collectors at any given moment in time always think that prices have reached their apex. Think of the WM AF 15 going for $40K at Sotheby's in the early 90s. Think of the Dentist paying $20K for the MH Action 1 a decade earlier. In hindsight they always look like good deals, and people with the benefit of that 20/20 hindsight will always say that it was obvious back then that there was a lot of upside still. Sure it was obvious, so how come it's not them that owns the book today? Just so people don't think I'm focusing exclusively on the mega-keys, look at Marnin's CBG ad being discussed in the SA forum. Lots of people thought the pricing on all the books was absurd and refused to pay the prices because they would never catch up. In fact, you or someone else who posted in that thread said exactly that.

 

Woulda shoulda coulda. While I am making no prediction about the future direction of prices, the only thing I can say with certainty is that in 10 years, today will be 10 years ago. You can't go back in time to make all the purchases in 1996 that you wish you had made, but the only way to ensure that in 2016 you can say you bought X books in 2006 is to go and buy those books in 2006.

[AussieRuss]

Great Post Aman619 & Excellent reply Tim.

 

Its always nice to read a question like this & I feel that Tim has hit the nail on the head with his answer.

 

If you can afford a book & like it, buy it.

 

People will always be there to tell you that you have paid to much or to little for a given book but at the end of the day only time will tell if you picked a winner. However you need to purchase a ticket to be in the game.

 

Chances are that after a books price drops to a lower resistance level after initial purchase. Days, weeks or decades later it will then slowly start to appreciate in value. If value spikes, a correction is more probable but long term growth should be guaranteed. Picking the diamond in the rough is the hard part.

 

 

Hope you all have a Happy New Years.

 

Russ..

[joe_collector]

anyway, they wrote about the guy who paid 935K a few years ago for the stamp block of the inverted Jenny biplane. Then it states that he recently sold it for 3 million.

 

Sure, but that's like having the MH Action Comics #1, which is one of the very, very, very few comics to have significant upward potential. Articles like this always promote the very apex of collectibles, without looking at the thousands of poor sods who lost their shirt buying and selling stamps, coins or sportscards when the market was hot.

 

Of course no one would want to read about the guys who lost houses, drained bank accounts, had cars and boats repossessed, or are currently living on the street, from foolishly "investing" in collectibles. Those guys exist, and in far greater numbers than those who made any significant money.

 

But we all want to read about the lottery winners, not the bums.

 

Or to put it into perspective, if all you knew about poker was what you saw on TV or read in the paper, it would seem that these guys are making tons of money and living the high life, when in reality, lives are crushed daily, only a few people can make a living at it, and even the top money winners are often destitute from other "habits".

 

But like I said, no one wants to read about that negative side of addiction.

[TomG]

Can you post a link to the article?

 

Thanks

[Aman619]

anyway, they wrote about the guy who paid 935K a few years ago for the stamp block of the inverted Jenny biplane. Then it states that he recently sold it for 3 million.

 

Sure, but that's like having the MH Action Comics #1, which is one of the very, very, very few comics to have significant upward potential. Articles like this always promote the very apex of collectibles, without looking at the thousands of poor sods who lost their shirt buying and selling stamps, coins or sportscards when the market was hot.

 

Of course no one would want to read about the guys who lost houses, drained bank accounts, had cars and boats repossessed, or are currently living on the street, from foolishly "investing" in collectibles. Those guys exist, and in far greater numbers than those who made any significant money.

 

But we all want to read about the lottery winners, not the bums.

 

Or to put it into perspective, if all you knew about poker was what you saw on TV or read in the paper, it would seem that these guys are making tons of money and living the high life, when in reality, lives are crushed daily, only a few people can make a living at it, and even the top money winners are often destitute from other "habits".

 

But like I said, no one wants to read about that negative side of addiction.

 

I know what you are saying, and we all know where we stand, But in this case, remember the bit about the stamp was totally tangential to the articles point. It was NOT an article touting profits made in collectibles. It made no mention nor any opinion on collectibles as investments other than how to deal with the profits tax-wise.

 

It was purely about the real life implications of the pretty obscure tax law dealing with profits derived from selling collectibles. the stamp guy was only one example that caught my eye. (for those interested, apparently this law treats capital gains from investments the same way income tax deals with profits from your home. As it lets you roll profits into a NEW investment if it is made as a replacement in kind within 45 days. They further said that while many were taking advantage of it, they were technically in violation of the rules and these abuses might or could be son acted upon by the IRS.)

 

So, if Dave A is listening, he can sell his Action 1 for 2 million and not pay any tax on the 1.98 profit------so long as he immediately goes on a wild JPlike buying spree totaling that same amount! right!

 

Ill see if I can find the article to post to.

[Aman619]

so far I see that you need to be a subscriber to WSJ online to get to the article from yesterdays paper. So maybe someone here can do that for us...

 

but I found this CPA page detailing the tax law in question. It may come in handy for anyone here thinking of selling stuff and wondering how to declare the profits..... wait - what am I thinking!!!

 

in case you were declaring....

[TomG]

Can you post the title of the article?

 

Thanks

[joe_collector]

But in this case, remember the bit about the stamp was totally tangential to the articles point. It was NOT an article touting profits made in collectibles. It made no mention nor any opinion on collectibles as investments other than how to deal with the profits tax-wise.

 

If you're correct, then I am assuming it dealt with how to handle significant losses and how that might be accounted for.

 

Right?

[FlyingDonut]

12/29/05 WSJ Bartering to Avoid Taxes

[Aman619]

12/29/05 WSJ Bartering to Avoid Taxes

 

thanx. I forgot the real point began with bartering...leading to selling assets and then avoiding the yaxes due by rebuying differnet but similar assets.

thanx.

[Aman619]

But in this case, remember the bit about the stamp was totally tangential to the articles point. It was NOT an article touting profits made in collectibles. It made no mention nor any opinion on collectibles as investments other than how to deal with the profits tax-wise.

 

If you're correct, then I am assuming it dealt with how to handle significant losses and how that might be accounted for.

 

Right?

 

gosh, you an optimistic sunny fellow, arent you?

 

answer is no, since it was dealing with profits which do occur I would imagine...

[joe_collector]

answer is no, since it was dealing with profits which do occur I would imagine...

 

Why am I not surprised. After all, no one ever loses money on collectibles.

[AussieRuss]

But in this case, remember the bit about the stamp was totally tangential to the articles point. It was NOT an article touting profits made in collectibles. It made no mention nor any opinion on collectibles as investments other than how to deal with the profits tax-wise.

 

If you're correct, then I am assuming it dealt with how to handle significant losses and how that might be accounted for.

 

Right?

 

In Autralia you are supposed to declare any profits @ the end of each tax year. You then pay a CGT (Capital Gains Tax) on those profits.

 

If you make a loss you can also offset the loss against any Tax that you may have to pay. This may mean a Tax return in many cases.

 

Joe. I to feel bad for the people that lost a lot when tipping all there money into (inset word here) however it is not that the product is usually bad. It is more that the person listens to bad advice or follows a heard mentality and either exits a venture to early or to late.

 

Everyone makes these mistakes to a small degree but what mind set are these people in when you dump every cent you own & also put there house on the line as well???

 

They say that greed changes people and sometime it can take away the very thing that someone seeks.

 

Regards,

Russ..

[joe_collector]

Joe. I to feel bad for the people that lost a lot when tipping all there money into (inset word here) however it is not that the product is usually bad. It is more that the person listens to bad advice or follows a heard mentality and either exits a venture to early or to late.

 

Here's the deal in a nutshell, and if you listen to this advice you will never lose a penny:

 

When you hear the words INVESTMENT and COLLECTIBLE used to describe something, RUN and RUN FAST. You need to buy BEFORE that happens and then sell DURING the "Investment Collectibles" phase.

 

This is a Universal Truth. 100% guaranteed.

[COI]

of late, Ive gone on record that it appears the latest price spikes have used up nearly all comics future price potential. But - - is it not possible, like real estate prices and here, stamps, that todays prices are a plateau from which further heights will be reached?

Collectors at any given moment in time always think that prices have reached their apex. Think of the WM AF 15 going for $40K at Sotheby's in the early 90s. Think of the Dentist paying $20K for the MH Action 1 a decade earlier. In hindsight they always look like good deals, and people with the benefit of that 20/20 hindsight will always say that it was obvious back then that there was a lot of upside still. Sure it was obvious, so how come it's not them that owns the book today? Just so people don't think I'm focusing exclusively on the mega-keys, look at Marnin's CBG ad being discussed in the SA forum. Lots of people thought the pricing on all the books was absurd and refused to pay the prices because they would never catch up. In fact, you or someone else who posted in that thread said exactly that.

 

Woulda shoulda coulda. While I am making no prediction about the future direction of prices, the only thing I can say with certainty is that in 10 years, today will be 10 years ago. You can't go back in time to make all the purchases in 1996 that you wish you had made, but the only way to ensure that in 2016 you can say you bought X books in 2006 is to go and buy those books in 2006.

 

According to this logic, I guess the guy who paid 3K+ the other day for a 9.9 ASM #300 must be a real visionary.

 

All things come to an end. To go foreward and continue to draw conclusions based on historical data is very dangerous.

 

But let's look at history; In terms of percentages, has there ever been a price surge in the market that's comparable with the CGC explosion of the last 5-6 years? I wasn't around, but I'll make an educated guess and say no. So how can you use historical trends going foreward when the last 5 years have been so drastically different than anything we've ever seen? Before 99', the internet market was in it's early stages and we had no grading company. We have no way of studying the long term effects of these changes, so using examples like the MH Action 1 makes for an argument that's specious(sp?) at best. The only thing you can do is look at trends in other hobbies, like Sports Cards, where grading has existed for significantly longer. Unfortunetly, whenever data from another hobby is used, it's dismissed as "apples and oranges", usually because that data brings some bad news with it.

[tth2]

According to this logic, I guess the guy who paid 3K+ the other day for a 9.9 ASM #300 must be a real visionary.

 

All things come to an end. To go foreward and continue to draw conclusions based on historical data is very dangerous.

 

But let's look at history; In terms of percentages, has there ever been a price surge in the market that's comparable with the CGC explosion of the last 5-6 years? I wasn't around, but I'll make an educated guess and say no. So how can you use historical trends going foreward when the last 5 years have been so drastically different than anything we've ever seen? Before 99', the internet market was in it's early stages and we had no grading company. We have no way of studying the long term effects of these changes, so using examples like the MH Action 1 makes for an argument that's specious(sp?) at best. The only thing you can do is look at trends in other hobbies, like Sports Cards, where grading has existed for significantly longer. Unfortunetly, whenever data from another hobby is used, it's dismissed as "apples and oranges", usually because that data brings some bad news with it.

Andrew, that wasn't the point of my post. My point was that at any given moment in time, things always look fully priced, and the only time they appear to be bargains is in hindsight. I think too many people get paralyzed into inaction because they see only the negatives. Yes, you can lose money, but there are opportunity costs to doing nothing too. As AussieRuss so very succinctly put it, if you don't purchase the ticket you'll never get into the game.

 

As to your other point about current prices reflecting an unusual distortion in prices, I think if you take any 10 year period even prior to 2000, you will on average see significant gains in prices. I don't have any of my old price guides, but I want to say there was a significant burst in SA prices between the mid-1980s and the early- to mid-1990s, and I think there were a couple of periods of massive GA price appreciation too. Whether the gains were comparable to those of the last 5 years, I couldn't say. This is not to say prices will continue to go up, because as you say, past performance is no predictor of future performance, and I agree that the current comic market could very well be similar to the Nasdaq run up from 1995 to 2000. But, I'm a big believer that it's better to be in the middle of the action, taking your lumps and also raking in the gains, than sitting on the sidelines earning interest on your bank account and watching the world move on by.

[AussieRuss]

of late, Ive gone on record that it appears the latest price spikes have used up nearly all comics future price potential. But - - is it not possible, like real estate prices and here, stamps, that todays prices are a plateau from which further heights will be reached?

Collectors at any given moment in time always think that prices have reached their apex. Think of the WM AF 15 going for $40K at Sotheby's in the early 90s. Think of the Dentist paying $20K for the MH Action 1 a decade earlier. In hindsight they always look like good deals, and people with the benefit of that 20/20 hindsight will always say that it was obvious back then that there was a lot of upside still. Sure it was obvious, so how come it's not them that owns the book today? Just so people don't think I'm focusing exclusively on the mega-keys, look at Marnin's CBG ad being discussed in the SA forum. Lots of people thought the pricing on all the books was absurd and refused to pay the prices because they would never catch up. In fact, you or someone else who posted in that thread said exactly that.

 

Woulda shoulda coulda. While I am making no prediction about the future direction of prices, the only thing I can say with certainty is that in 10 years, today will be 10 years ago. You can't go back in time to make all the purchases in 1996 that you wish you had made, but the only way to ensure that in 2016 you can say you bought X books in 2006 is to go and buy those books in 2006.

 

According to this logic, I guess the guy who paid 3K+ the other day for a 9.9 ASM #300 must be a real visionary.

 

All things come to an end. To go foreward and continue to draw conclusions based on historical data is very dangerous.

 

But let's look at history; In terms of percentages, has there ever been a price surge in the market that's comparable with the CGC explosion of the last 5-6 years? I wasn't around, but I'll make an educated guess and say no. So how can you use historical trends going foreward when the last 5 years have been so drastically different than anything we've ever seen? Before 99', the internet market was in it's early stages and we had no grading company. We have no way of studying the long term effects of these changes, so using examples like the MH Action 1 makes for an argument that's specious(sp?) at best. The only thing you can do is look at trends in other hobbies, like Sports Cards, where grading has existed for significantly longer. Unfortunetly, whenever data from another hobby is used, it's dismissed as "apples and oranges", usually because that data brings some bad news with it.

 

 

What seems to be missed here is that in 1938 very few people would have realised the potential value of an Action #1.

 

Just as today we can only speculate as to what will be the ideal book to hold on to for the future.

 

Edgar Church would not have know what his Action#1 would be worth when he purchased it, in fact he probably liked other books in his collection even more. The point is that he collected a wide variety of books. Kept them in pristine condition & decades later some are worth many multiples of others.

 

Not that he collected with investment in mind but he did vary his collection genre's widely & now it is paying dividends for the new owners.

 

It will take another 10-50 years to see what was worth collecting today but you can guaranty that there will be books on the shelf today that will be again worth many multiples of the purchase price.

 

 

Russ...

[tth2]

Of course no one would want to read about the guys who lost houses, drained bank accounts, had cars and boats repossessed, or are currently living on the street, from foolishly "investing" in collectibles. Those guys exist, and in far greater numbers than those who made any significant money.

So what? History is littered with losers and failures. For every Bill Gates, there are undoubtedly tens of thousands of failed software developers. For every John Rockefeller, there were thousands of failed, and sometimes crushed, oil men. Sometimes you have to just go for it, and that might lead to failure. There is no risk free way to achieve huge success. If you want a life of guaranteed mediocrity, then move to some socialized Western European country where you'll never fall far but you'll probably never rise up very high either.

[joe_collector]

Andrew, that wasn't the point of my post. My point was that at any given moment in time, things always look fully priced, and the only time they appear to be bargains is in hindsight. I think too many people get paralyzed into inaction because they see only the negatives. Yes, you can lose money, but there are opportunity costs to doing nothing too. As AussieRuss so very succinctly put it, if you don't purchase the ticket you'll never get into the game.

 

Biut by using hindsight, you naturally look at the "lottery winners" only, and forget all about the poor sods who may have *invested* in F to VF books in the 80's and 90's, along with over-graded NM's, whose collection actually dropped in real value. And let's not even get into the speculator books people got hosed on (yes, thoise did exist in the 70's) or the resto comics.

 

That's the MAIN problem with this kind of bizarre argument, it does NOT look at the entire market, but only highlights the incredibly rare "big score", and then tries to pawn those off as an everyday occurence.