stamps... blazing a trail for comics?

[COI]

These are only comics and people are only spending their discretionary income anyways, right?

 

 

C'mon Tim, you know better than that. You really think most high grade/high end collectors are using only discretionary income?

[BlackHeartedDwarf-migratio]

I usually spend my discretionary income that's normally reserved for food and medicine.

[delekkerste]

How much something cost in terms of overall spending power is not a way to gauge the psychology in play at the time of the purchase. You have to look at how much the items cost in comparison to how much they had cost just a bit earlier, and what the precedents were for spending that kind of money on such an item. It would have been unfathomable in 1966 for a comic to be worth a year`s salary, but in 2006 it is a very real phenomenon, and therefore the anxiety level being experienced by someone shelling out $15 for a comic, even though it would have been well less than a month`s salary, would be significantly higher than you make it out to be. How do I know this? Because I went through major trauma in the 1980s and 1990s making purchasing decisions that in retrospect were no-brainers, even though none were books capable of putting me in the poor house. I would argue that the Dentist`s paying $20K for the Action #1 in the early 1980s was a bigger leap of faith than spending $1 million on it today

 

A bigger leap of faith it may have been, but you are confusing perceived risk with actual risk. Spending big money on comics in the early 1980s when they were a big unknown was/is a bigger perceived risk, but the actual risk of buying in 2006 after a parabolic run-up that has not been matched by income, hobby, demographic, etc. trends is much higher. Also, comparing your decisions in the 1980s and 1990s vs. now when you are an established professional makes no sense at all. I couldn't even fathom shelling out $100 for a comic book back in 1984, but that has little bearing on anything today.

 

Speaking purely from an investment point of view, I don't think high grade, high dollar collectible comics offer a particularly compelling risk/reward profile at this time. Pointing out examples from the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s or early 1990s is irrelevant - comics and original art, as measured by units of labor, ounces of gold, nominal or real dollars were cheap back then. They aren't any longer and this is not a trend that can continue indefinitely (mathematically, you will just keep pricing out more and more of the market). Extrapolating these trends indefinitely into the future makes no sense when the size of the market is not expanding, incomes are shrinking, etc. When the same page of original art cost you a week's worth of pre-tax income in 1991 and more than a year's worth 15 years' later, well, you might want to start thinking of other places to invest your money (again, if investment is your aim).

 

I might also reiterate here that the advance in comic prices since I started getting really bearish at the end of 2002 (didn't count on Easy Al inflating the housing bubble to keep everyone temporarily spending like drunken sailors) has been getting more and more selective and that even the better performers have grossly lagged the performance of both stocks and real estate during that time period. No offense to the dealers, etc. out there, but comics are simply not a good investment at this time and they haven't been for some time now.

[tth2]

How much something cost in terms of overall spending power is not a way to gauge the psychology in play at the time of the purchase. You have to look at how much the items cost in comparison to how much they had cost just a bit earlier, and what the precedents were for spending that kind of money on such an item. It would have been unfathomable in 1966 for a comic to be worth a year`s salary, but in 2006 it is a very real phenomenon, and therefore the anxiety level being experienced by someone shelling out $15 for a comic, even though it would have been well less than a month`s salary, would be significantly higher than you make it out to be. How do I know this? Because I went through major trauma in the 1980s and 1990s making purchasing decisions that in retrospect were no-brainers, even though none were books capable of putting me in the poor house. I would argue that the Dentist`s paying $20K for the Action #1 in the early 1980s was a bigger leap of faith than spending $1 million on it today

 

A bigger leap of faith it may have been, but you are confusing perceived risk with actual risk. Spending big money on comics in the early 1980s when they were a big unknown was/is a bigger perceived risk, but the actual risk of buying in 2006 after a parabolic run-up that has not been matched by income, hobby, demographic, etc. trends is much higher.

You may very well be correct about where comic prices are going, and I don`t necessarily disagree with you. My original point, however, was not whether comics were ever, or will continue to be, good investments, but simply that at any given moment in time comics appear to be fully priced, and it`s only in retrospect that the buying decision turned out to be a no-brainer.

 

Also, comparing your decisions in the 1980s and 1990s vs. now when you are an established professional makes no sense at all. I couldn't even fathom shelling out $100 for a comic book back in 1984, but that has little bearing on anything today.

I`m not sure I would completely agree with that. Maybe the 1980s in my (and your) particular case because we were too young back then, but there are others on these boards who are older and were more established already and probably still stressed out as much over paying whatever an Avengers 4 went for back then as they might for an Avengers 4 today. But I can certainly use 1996 as a good comparison point, because in many respects I had more disposable income at that point, still being single, living in a much smaller place and generally leading a more spartan existence. I can assure you I stressed out as much, if not more, over a $500 purchase in 1996 than I do over a $5000 purchase today.

[mar-vell]

I agree with some of what Joe says-comic prices do seem to be strained to the point where the average person can't afford the key issues anymore! High grades seem to have become the realm of dentists.lawyers, and other people with higher end incomes. In the next few years this may manifest itself in a lack of demand for expensive comics causing prices to drop for some time. I think history shows us that after every boom there is a time where the market adjusts itself and prices fall from previous loftier heights. My observations tell me that the prices will not spiral downward in a freefall but merely adjust to what collectors are really willing to pay for the books as the investors begin to lose confidence in what they are doing. A lot of people will lose big $$$ during this phase if they panic, or simply can't afford to hold onto their investment long term! The true collector and wise investor seems to profit from this and the cycle goes on. After a cooling off period i fully anticipate comics to get red hot again within the next 10 to 20 years! America's love affair with comics is far from over in my estimation, I can't imagine AF15 or a similar key being worth less in 30 years than it is today!!! If such a thing were to happen we have bigger problems because we'll all be standing in line at a soup kitchen--I really believe it would take another great depression to destroy the value of comic books!!!

[delekkerste]

I can't imagine AF15 or a similar key being worth less in 30 years than it is today!!! If such a thing were to happen we have bigger problems because we'll all be standing in line at a soup kitchen--I really believe it would take another great depression to destroy the value of comic books!!!

 

[Aman619]

as always when this gets discussed, it boils down to the same stalemate. I agree with Gene that anyone "investing" in comics especially with borrowed money is foolish. But, on the other hand, most big ticket comics are bought as "objects" with an "eye" to investment appreciation, and, as Tim says, with discretionary income. (I dunno, maybe thats just him and me and a few others).

 

I wont be sellling if prices stall, shrink or "crash". I wont panic cause I agree we got another big wave or two even AFTER a big price rollback. But not ALL comics. I am talking as always at the top; big key books in high grade. And not even ALL of them!!

 

Im not sure Ill have the stomach to be buying as many claim they will..... but my overall faith in the comicbook as a proven American cultural collectible will not be shaken just cause the froth of the CGC effect fades exposing a few boots and tires on the beach!!