I Was Talking to a Sports Card Guy Over the Holidays

[MK Ultra]

Big differences between sports cards and comics.

 

Other than the one's presented above, here's a paraphrased Bill Maherism;

 

 

If you're under 13 it's okay to collect sports cards, if you're over 12 you're gay. They're pictures of men.

 

 

Not that there's anything wrong with that. (Sienfeldism)

[mica]

Drinking with a card collector.... What a geek fanboy

[drbanner]

I agree with FD and October, and most of what your relative believes, having lived through that period buying and selling a lot of cards. The big difference between cards then and comics now is that the 80's-90's cards market was >90% driven by absurd speculation, and maintained by attempts to keep card values spiralling upwards for as long as the buying public could be hoodwinked. If some cards lost their steam, they would be replaced by the new hot item, which becaming increasingly something contrived (e.g., chase cards). Ultimately the average joe who was into cards because of the delusion of making money got wise and left, tons of product tanked leaving only old cards as valuable to the people who where in the hobby before all the craziness in the hobby.

 

This is exactly what happened to comics in the early-mid 90's with Valiant, Image, Variant Covers, etc.,. The funny (pathetic?) thing is, much of the hype carried over into Sports Card shops, and many shops started carrying Wizard-fueled overhyped comics, but I doubt any of those guys really read comics or cared for them at all. Fortunately, that trend ended with the end of the Valiant/Variant Cover/Wizard fad in comics.

 

One good thing that came about as a result of this "crossover" was finding a bunch of high grade Disney Four Color Mickey Mouse issues at a sports card store priced based on some other title, perhaps "Mickey Mouse" itself!

[Reno McCoy]

I still buy football cards. I love the hunt, probably more than the hunting of comics. Plus, I love the history. I don't really care too much about perceived value. Sure, I spend lots of cash on 'em, but I don't plan to sell them or hope that they increase in value. I just think they look cool and that it'll be fun one day to sit down with my son and show him Brett Favre cards and tell him that I saw him play a few times.

 

I think this whole thread points out the fact the unknown quantity of any investment, and the fact that you should collect what you love for the joy of it, not for the money.

[joe_collector]

Other than the one's presented above, here's a paraphrased Bill Maherism

 

I wouldn't be quoting anything that pasty-faced shrimp says about being "cool". He's the biggest geek on TV.

[Reno McCoy]

One of the problems with sports cards is that the low serial numbers and autographs and jersey pieces give collectors a false sense of rarity. In reality, with probably 20 sets a year, a rookie numbered to 100 in each of them actually means that there are 2000 cards of that guy. Plus the parallels. Plus the inserts. And when the next year's cards come out, the previous year is forgotten because there are more cards that are just as "rare" to go get.

 

On the positive side, cards are a little easier to enjoy than comics due to their size and the fact that you don't read 'em.

 

We collectors, we're a strange bunch. I think merging thoughts of investment with the joy of collecting is a bad thing. When I only think of the joy the thrill of the hunt brings me or the fun I have reading a comic or looking at a card, I love this hobby. When I think of the future and the investment and how much money I've wasted, well, that's a downer.

[Ze-man]

One of my relatives is a hardcore sports card collector, and he's forgotten more about the market than I ever knew. He'd heard about the CGC fad and naturally we got to talking.... and drinking... and talking.

 

To make a long story short, the gist of what he said really scared me (yeah I know, creepy), and comes down to a few basic points, using his own projections based on the graded spotscard trends:

 

1) Overall CGC prices will drop, and demand will slowly sag as the market continues to see more and more graded copies.

 

2) Very limited quantities of older, ultra-high grade material will continue to appreciate as will select key issues in the absolute "1 of 1 copy" highest grade (bah, what does he know? ).

 

3) At a certain point in time, high-grade raw comics will become very tough to get rid of, and basically only sell for a shrinking percentage of graded value. Bulk raw sales will become a way of life for most comics.

 

4) Low and mid-grade raw comics will tank almost entirely and supply will overwhelm any demand that's left. (I know many like Donut disagree, but that IS what happened in coins and cards after graded prices melted down ).

 

5) Scandals will rock the business and lead to many scared investors selling off. (He was VERY interested in what's been going on lately, and just knowingly rolled his eyes at the "missed resto" BS).

 

6) 99.9999999999999999% of Modern slabs will become totally worthless.

 

7) With only a single grading company, that factor has essentially propped the market up artifically so far, as compared to the multiple card and coin graders. (I think he's absolutely correct here)

 

8) There will be a reduction in new comics for sale, and at a certain point, a sharp increase in retail prices (yeah, tell us something we didn't know ).

 

I personally disagree with a few of these projections/predictions, but I'm presenting them for some debate. After all, from my point of view, sportscards are the closest to comics both in form, point of sale, and orignal owner demographics.

 

But no one really knows the future. Some may come true, or all, or none, but one thing is for sure, this guy *knows* graded sportscards and is still making money buying and selling them. So if the graded comic market follows along, expect these to be a laundry list of what's to come.

 

 

 

 

JC, thnx for posting your thoughts.. oops.. I meant your "relative's" thoughts about where the CGC market is headed.

Did you take notes or what? I am impressed you were able to retain so much info whils't drinking.

 

Interesting interview either way.

 

BTW, CGC FAD..love the choice of words... That'sa knee slapper alright.

 

 

Ze-

[comicwiz]

I see the basic principles for each a little differently, recognizing of course that your post is talking more about the investment/speculative aspects of the comics vs sports card market. I'm looking at this mostly from the new card/comic market, and here is how I see the two differ.

 

Comics are based in science-fiction/fantasy, and our enjoyment is actualized through our own personal engagement with the characters, the plots, the writers and artists. We can feel severely let down when a story arch blows, or when a decision is made to change artists just when the title has achieved it peak in distribution and sales figures. As comic enthusiasts, we can be let down just as much with the shrewd business decisions that impact a title as we could with a mental lapse the artist or writer decided to take when hitting the creative bullpen on any given month.

 

For some, the sense of loyalty far outrides any drivel, or drop in creativity during the course of a titles run. Plenty of collectors will continue to buy the drivel, and others will stage an outright boycott until the title improves. We've all been victims of this at one time or another. The connection to the modern comic market is a little oversimplified here, and granted that we all got stuck with titles that we bought and continued to collect in hopes of an improvement, it wasn't a constant that the improvements would keep collector interest returning and the 90's were a testament to this fact.

 

That said, I don't entirely think its that difficult for people to grasp a drop in value on an USM #1 white variant from the time it first appeared slabbed in ultra-high grade on eBay because this same downward spiral WILL occur with the Upper Deck Crosby RC, whether that be a Becket 9.5 GM, or in raw form in a plastic card sleeve. If you're a collector in the hobby for the long-haul, the tendency is to wait out the cyclical aspects of high-premiums, high-demand markets, and buy when the USM #1 or Crosby RC drop down to realistic prices.

 

And I'm really glad you brought up the OPC Premier example, citing the Jagr RC as well because it allows me to illustrate how different sports cards can be from comics.

 

The OPC Premier set was one of those oddities in the sports card market that said "can't miss" from the time news broke out about it. A box was reasonably priced, especially in comparison to Upper Decks offering, and the demand drove the OPC Premier values to the stratosphere, and it quickly became one of the darlings of the 90's sports card market.

 

It missed on so many levels though. No Lindros, no Belfour and seemed to be following the hype of the European giants such as Federov and Jagr. I remember being in Collingwood the weekend when the boxes of these cards vanished in the stores in downtown Toronto. I went for a run from our chalet to the downtown area of Collingwood and saw a box for $30. I stupidly passed on the box, and later that night I was speaking with my Uncle who had told me the boxes jumped up to over $100 in the city -- if you could find them!

 

I quickly threw on a pair of pants (this in the dead of winter, with the wind from Georgian Bay certain to freeze every part of my anatomy) and ran back to the store to buy that last box. I returned to the chalet, wiped the icicles off my eyebrows and made up 2 complete sets. One of which I would later do a straight trade for an uncut sheet of the Premier set which I still have framed in my old room.

 

Being Canadian and having a personal connection with the game of hockey and playing goal from an early age, sports cards allowed me to keep track of all the new goalies that would enter into the NHL. I just used to collect sets of goalies. The rest I would trade or hang from the spoke of my bike for a little rattlin' action

 

Sadly, my choices for collecting only goalies from as far back as the 1979-1980 season was indiscriminate, and so I shudder to tell you how many Gretzky rookies I flicked through the spokes of my wheeler bike.

 

I would toss my sports cards in front of me as I parked myself in front of the t.v. each night a game was being played and if the goalie wasn't up to par that night, I would toss the card in the bin of traders. I was quite the critic from a very early age. And this tendency is what informed so much of who I am today, especially in terms of my collecting habits.

 

When I see all the hype around players like Sidney Crosby, through endorsements for clothing, features on Hockey Night in Canada, right through to his RC selling for insane premiums on eBay, the first thing I have to think about is whether I respect the player as much on the ice as I do off.

 

And I will say that my dislike for him grows each day as its becoming abundantly clear that this kid has been catapulted to superstardom far too quickly. All the writing is on the wall. Within a few months, he's moved in with Mario Lemieux, became an assistant captain of the Pittsburgh Penguins, and is already yapping on the bench in the dressing room like he's the leader of the club, and doing this with veterans on the team that have actually been on championship teams and overshadow him with decades of experience.

 

So regardless of the popularity of the kid, and how talented he really is, I just can't put any thought into chasing his RC. I don't think that comic collectors share the same emotional connection to a character because that character isn't real. When you watch your teams hero turn a crucial game around with a stellar play, that connection is immediate and real. The emotions are high, the cheers are electric (even when you're watching the game at home with a few buds), I feel that those memories are lasting and galvanized into you in ways that no story arch or artwork in a comic could ever compare.

 

With the Crosby sensation rocking the hockey world, and a sports card market readied to jump on the opportunism of a new season marking a precedent setting lockout sure to turn-over twice the amount of rookie prospects, the hockey sports card market is poised to have one of its best years in recent times. But I'd rather wait a few years from now to see how things play out with players like Crosby, and how Upper Deck decides to keep their foothold in the sports card market.

 

I just know that I'm bound to be less disappointed going in with low expectations that I am with high expectations. Players like Jagr are a perfect example of how some players have a tendency to fall out of favour with the most loyal of fans purely by their actions. A tendency that seems to get worse as the years go by. I think removing yourself from the "market" driven aspects of each hobby is to a large extent how I've always gone about my collecting interests. If there was no connection to what I collected then I just never found the desire or need to plunk any amount of money on a book or a card just to file or store it away in a box.

[drbanner]

JC, thnx for posting your thoughts.. oops.. I meant your "relative's" thoughts about where the CGC market is headed.

Did you take notes or what? I am impressed you were able to retain so much info whils't drinking.

 

[The Black Hand ®]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4) Low and mid-grade raw comics will tank almost entirely and supply will overwhelm any demand that's left. (I know many like Donut disagree, but that IS what happened in coins and cards after graded prices melted down ).

 

5) Scandals will rock the business and lead to many scared investors selling off. (He was VERY interested in what's been going on lately, and just knowingly rolled his eyes at the "missed resto" BS).

 

6) 99.9999999999999999% of Modern slabs will become totally worthless.

 

7) With only a single grading company, that factor has essentially propped the market up artifically so far, as compared to the multiple card and coin graders. (I think he's absolutely correct here)

 

 

If you love reading and collecting GA comics Point #4 will be something to look forward to. Since comic collecting is something I do because I love world war II era comics, the chance to pick some of these books up at a reasonable price would tickle me pink.I never collected comics to flip and make a bundle I collect because I love the books, the fact that it's break even entertainment is an added plus. Whatever it takes to get rid of the oppurtunist and the snake oil salesmen is fine with me and if it means the collapse of an overinflated Slab market then all the better.

 

Point 5 will take a while because the "investors" are circling the wagon and attacking the whistleblowers.

 

Point 6---- (yawn)

 

 

Point 7- as it was intended to do

[lou_fine]

I agree with FD and October, and most of what your relative believes, having lived through that period buying and selling a lot of cards. The big difference between cards then and comics now is that the 80's-90's cards market was >90% driven by absurd speculation, and maintained by attempts to keep card values spiralling upwards for as long as the buying public could be hoodwinked. If some cards lost their steam, they would be replaced by the new hot item, which becaming increasingly something contrived (e.g., chase cards). Ultimately the average joe who was into cards because of the delusion of making money got wise and left, tons of product tanked leaving only old cards as valuable to the people who where in the hobby before all the craziness in the hobby.

 

When I read this part of your post here, visions of the 90's and the current Marvel marketing strategy of title relaunches and continual variant covers comes immediately to mind. I guess some collectors just never learn.

[awe4one]

1) Overall CGC prices will drop, and demand will slowly sag as the market continues to see more and more graded copies.

 

This has already started...and will accelerate as time goes on...

 

2) Very limited quantities of older, ultra-high grade material will continue to appreciate as will select key issues in the absolute "1 of 1 copy" highest grade (bah, what does he know? ).

 

Agree to a certain extent...but even these will show signs of weakness over time. With pressing and considered non-resto activities going on in the hobby, the number of ultra high grades copies will increase. No comics can get better than "10"...and as "pristine" copies start to become more than 1 of 1 the price of these copies will suffer.

 

3) At a certain point in time, high-grade raw comics will become very tough to get rid of, and basically only sell for a shrinking percentage of graded value. Bulk raw sales will become a way of life for most comics.

 

See above point...

 

4) Low and mid-grade raw comics will tank almost entirely and supply will overwhelm any demand that's left. (I know many like Donut disagree, but that IS what happened in coins and cards after graded prices melted down ).

 

Lack of new collectors and the availability of HG copies will drive this more than a general dissatisfaction with grade.

 

5) Scandals will rock the business and lead to many scared investors selling off. (He was VERY interested in what's been going on lately, and just knowingly rolled his eyes at the "missed resto" BS).

 

Already started and will only get worse with time...

 

6) 99.9999999999999999% of Modern slabs will become totally worthless.

 

Agree 100%. In fact, the current market reminds me so much of the early-90s crash it's scary. I do not think the hobby as we know it can survive another crash of similar proportions...

 

7) With only a single grading company, that factor has essentially propped the market up artifically so far, as compared to the multiple card and coin graders. (I think he's absolutely correct here)

 

I blame manipulated auctions as well...though I have no way of proving it. But the indicators are there that it's happening.

 

8) There will be a reduction in new comics for sale, and at a certain point, a sharp increase in retail prices (yeah, tell us something we didn't know ).

 

On this note, I think 32 page comics are near extinction. Within 5-10 years I think another format will take hold (Graphic novels being the leading candidate). And when this happens it will have a profound effect on the back issue market...

 

Jim

[THE_BEYONDER]

the current market reminds so much of the pre-90s crash it's scary.

 

Except this time.....the stakes are much higher. I'd rather get stuck with 1000 unread copies of Spawn 1, then a single CGC 10.0 that I paid $1000 for.

 

Back in 1993....there was "The Fear". I imagine the idea of the current CGC market crashing must have some people absolutely terrified.

 

It's one thing to invest in a comic book, but it's another thing entirely to invest in CGC. We're already seeing slabs sell for less than the cost of grading, and the early days of automatic CGC premiums are over.

 

I can't predict the future, but I feel a whole lot better knowing that I don't have a significant financial stake in it.

[awe4one]

the current market reminds so much of the pre-90s crash it's scary.

 

Except this time.....the stakes are much higher. I'd rather get stuck with 1000 unread copies of Spawn 1, then a single CGC 10.0 that I paid $1000 for.

 

Back in 1993....there was "The Fear". I imagine the idea of the current CGC market crashing must have some people absolutely terrified.

 

It's one thing to invest in a comic book, but it's another thing entirely to invest in CGC. We're already seeing slabs sell for less than the cost of grading, and the early days of automatic CGC premiums are over.

 

I can't predict the future, but I feel a whole lot better knowing that I don't have a significant financial stake in it.

 

And I bet alot to do with the stringent defense of CGC by some of any negativity directed their way...regardless of the vailidity of the issue...

 

Jim

[tth2]

JC, I agree with everything you've said here!

[burntboy]

JC, I agree with everything you've said here!

 

a real sign that the "Apocalypse" is upon us

[october]

Personally, I think the comics market today has more fundamental underpinnings because a decent % of those involved actually like comics and wouldn't mind if large groups of books tanked.

 

 

I think this is an excellent point and a common factor in all collectibles that retain their value. When a group of people really WANT something for the object itself (and not to flip for profit) that props up value. It sounds counterintuitive, but the fact that collectors might actually want values to fall so they can afford certain issues is the very thing that keeps values high.

[Bronty]

That's all well and good... but applies more to low grade reading copies than high grade slabs..

[Scrooge]

That's all well and good... but applies more to low grade reading copies than high grade slabs..

 

Not necessarily. See right now I buy Good copies of Airboy not because I am shooting for good copies because I want to spend $10 to $12 a piece. If the prices were to fall, I would still want to spend the $10 to $12 and pick up nicer conditions (VG) copies. This idea percolates up and props books in all grades. Doesn't it?

[Currin Comics]

Well if/when there is a "crash" for comics, with raw and slabbed being under the same umbrella, I think comics have a much better chance for a significant rebound. As stated earlier in the thread, there is something between the covers, ala literature or if you will a type of mythology. Also, as Comicwhiz stated about the sci fi genre being widely loved, there is romance, horror, war, superhero, crime genres to be selective with while collecting. Now the line of investment vs collecting will continue to be two different animals, as while the mid to low grades raws will not buy that beach house or put a porsche in the garage, they will be wanted for filling runs-reading enjoyment etc. I would think that comics more mirror book/tome collecting, which is still a viable investment opprutunity. Plus, on a side note, I often wonder which facet is stronger right now, the flippers or the hoarders?