Common bronze 9.8's... not so common after all?

[Rival61-migration]

Ive been buying CGC's on ebay for a few years now, and I think I've detected a disturbing trend... That gradeable 9.8 bronze issues are far rarer than was originally assumed.

 

Common wisdom assumed that there were tons of high-grade bronze laying around. While this may be true to a point, it appears that there is NO glut of 9.8's out there... but a huge glut of 9.4's. This is causing the prices of 9.4 and below bronze to stagnate, and on those rare occasions when a 9.8 surfaces it gets bidded through the ceiling... especially for non-key issues.

 

At first it seemed as if this could be accounted for by simple economics, a case where less people would be sending in non-key issues, so the CGC pool would be much tighter. However, looking at the census charts, you will find a lower distribution of 9.8's in non-key (and hence less collected and preserved issues) than in the keys and semi-keys. For every 50 submissions you might find 1 9.8. And the vast majority of people spending $19.00 to submit a bronze non-key are probably expecting a 9.8. Otherwise, they are spending more to slab the book than the value of the book. yet only a very very very select few are rewarded with the elusive 9.8. But the rewards can be staggering. Case in point:

 

Captain Marvel #27. Book Value in NM: $10.00. Thanos appearance, Starlin art, but not even a semi-key in series that never was very popular. A single 9.8 surfaces, and sells for a whopping $249.00. 6 graded, none lower than 9.4. Anyone want to take a stab at how much the 9.4's are worth? If you guess the price of the slab, you are pretty close. Not counting issue #1 (the only really key issue) you will find over 500 issues CGC graded, with a whopping total of 9.8's just over 20. In my book, that is a pretty low percentage.

 

I guess my point is, the next big jump in prices for the next few years in bronze will probably be in 9.8 common issues. These appear to be FAR more scarce than originaly anticipated. Silver age 9.8's made this jump early, but everyone knew that 9.8 silver would be nearly impossible to find. Rapidly increasing e-bay prices for bronze 9.8's is just now beginning, as more and more collectors seek out more pieces of a pie which is much smaller than is generally assumed.

 

It may well turn out that buying that CM #27 for $249.00 may have been a serious coup, even at 25X guide price. Just try and get another one graded 9.8, you may need to submit 30 candidates at $29.00 each, and that is what makes it so valuable.

 

-Rival

[g-man]

what would a CM #33 in 9.8 get?

[Bronty]

what's your asking price

[g-man]

15x guide.

[500Club]

I agree with you, Rival.

 

Issues from the 70s are plentiful in HG.... that is, 9.2 to 9.6. It is tough for 25yr old books to have been preserved in 9.8, though. Many didn't make it to the newsstand in 9.8 condition, and those that did were often bent in the wire spinner racks. Direct market sales were about 10% of total sales back then, so those books may have fared better, but bags/boards were primitive at the time, so for books to escape without a slight scuff or spine stress was rare.

 

At least the keys have had the advantage of being cared for better over the last 25-30 years. As you said, the non-key 9.8s are even tougher. These books didn't get the special attention to preservation that the keys did.

 

It's always tough to speculate about how much bronze is out there ungraded, but I suspect much of it is 9.0 to 9.6 in condition.

[Aman619]

9.8s are probably rare in BA. But I dont agree that the non-keys are rare in 9.8 because they were cared for less than th ekeys. Many keys arent apparent when we bought them. And, as someone who was already in my 20s, by themn I bought them all and just read them once quickly and piled them up nicely. They all got the same treatment, and at that age, theyre all pretty nice.

 

and as you say, they werent all 9.8s when I bought them off the racks.

[vic6string]

You beat me to the punch on this one. Arguably the 2 most important keys (Hulk 181 and X-men 94) weren't keys until years after their release. Giant Size X-Men #1 fared better being a #1 issue. Other keys from the time that weren't considered key issues from day one (meaning they may have sat in long boxes for anywhere from a couple of months to a few years): Marvel Spotlight 5, Marvel Premiere 15, Special Marvel Edition 15, Amazing Spidey 129, Iron Fist 14, Iron Man 55. Unlike the Silver Age, there really weren't many key issues numbered 1. There was alot more experimentation in the bronze age, and characters were tried out in other books before given their own series. Most of the #1 issue books in the bronze age weren't character intro books.

[500Club]

You beat me to the punch on this one. Arguably the 2 most important keys (Hulk 181 and X-men 94) weren't keys until years after their release. Giant Size X-Men #1 fared better being a #1 issue. Other keys from the time that weren't considered key issues from day one (meaning they may have sat in long boxes for anywhere from a couple of months to a few years): Marvel Spotlight 5, Marvel Premiere 15, Special Marvel Edition 15, Amazing Spidey 129, Iron Fist 14, Iron Man 55. Unlike the Silver Age, there really weren't many key issues numbered 1. There was alot more experimentation in the bronze age, and characters were tried out in other books before given their own series. Most of the #1 issue books in the bronze age weren't character intro books.

 

True, true. But these books have had the advantage of good/preferential care. I doubt too many nice Hulk 181s and X-Men 94s didn't get cared for well from the early 1980s onward. Many of the NM copies I saw were double boarded, in 4mil mylar, or clam shelled. In the meantime, many mid-run books were jostled among con stock, unbagged, bagged with no boards, tossed in quarter bins etc. I'd be inclined to think that the books that were seen as key the earliest saw the most preferential care.

 

This is purely conjecture though, so if anyone has any other theories as to why non-keys have lower proportions of 9.8 books graded, fire away.

[Aman619]

you make sense that over 20 years the eventual non-keys STAYED in the quarter boxes and got banged up. BUT--I still say that there were thousands of comics collectors in the 70s (like me) who were old enough to be taking care of each book we bought. Enough that there are plenty of BA high grade copies around, keys and non-keys. Again , I add, that most of these arent 9.8s since the slightest accidental dings knocked them out of that rarified category.

[murph0]

Certain bronze ASM's seem impossible in 9.8, such as 103-118, 123-128, 144-150, 176-180.. I don't buy that people aren't submitting them cause they're still bringing in $$ at 9.4 or at 9.6. A couple of those issues I've never even seen a 9.8 on. I've been trying to complete 176-180 for over a year now and I still can't get another one. 9.6's aren't a problem, but I think 9.8's & up will be the money books down the road for the non-key bronze.

 

Brian

[Kevin76]

You know, most of the bronze age collectors on here (which is 90%) is gonna hate me for saying this but..well...BRONZE AGE SUCKS! The only thing that came out of the 70's that was any good was Wolverine,X-men 9.4 is a cool book but come on! Iron Fist 14? Iron Man 55? Spotlight 5?? and all the hard to find oddball books that you people are looking for...bronze age books are not that rare,and don't have much of a future,I know,I know, collect what you like and There are no 5-6K+ bronze age books (besides Hulk 181 9.6/9.8) Unless the book is a 9.8,I don't see the point in buying a Iron Fist 14 in 9.9.Or even a 9.6 spotlight 5..Ghost rider sucks and so does Sabertooth,2nd rate heroes and villains.I think most of you guys should concetrate on some other books,a early FF or some early X-men perhaps? I NOT saying what i collect is for everyone or that what you collect is for everyone either,I just think money could be spend elsewhere than a Spidey 129 which is nothing but a flash in the pan type of book.Who cares about a Spidey 157 in 9.6? just a bunch of filler books in high grade,but f that's what makes you happy then,feel free to watch the bronze age market burn.

[Warlord]

murph0 writes:

 

Certain bronze ASM's seem impossible in 9.8, such as 103-118, 123-128, 144-150, 176-180.. I don't buy that people aren't submitting them cause they're still bringing in $$ at 9.4 or at 9.6. A couple of those issues I've never even seen a 9.8 on. I've been trying to complete 176-180 for over a year now and I still can't get another one

 

Consider that you were the original owner of the comics that you cite. And that you have no intention of selling them. *Why* would you submit them to be slabbed? Hey, maybe if it were a free process you would, but otherwise there's no reason to shell out the money. Hey, I'm working on a pedigree here!

 

I've got plenty of ASMs from that time period. ASM #150 is the first comic I can remember picking off a spinner rack, but I bought earlier ones new too, probably at least a year or two of them. My collection list shows I've got 1 "Mint" issue and 2 "NM" issues. You can count on at least one of those being 9.4 or better I'd bet.

 

Plus I bought most of the #100 up issues when they were just a couple years old as back issues. All those comics are in my collection of ASMs and they're not going anywhere because ASM is my favorite.

 

I was looking through an ASM box last week and pulled out my #129s. I'd say that one is 9.0-9.2 and the other is around a 9.4-9.6. Heck, maybe it's a 9.8, I dunno. I've never sent a comic off to CGC so I haven't compared my grading to theirs, but I'm pretty strict.

 

Anyway, I wouldn't start writing off 9.8s for a lot of Bronze comics. They are probably out there... but there's not any incentive for collectors to find out if they have a CGC 9.8 or any particular CGC grade if they're not planning to sell.

 

 

[Rip]

I think 9.8 are really hard to find in the Marvel bronze age.

A DC bronze age book is hard to find in 9.6. I think it would be interesting to see a total of how many 9.6 DC books are out there. Just try putting together a decent run of Neal Adams covers at 9.6. It just won't happen.

[RickHigh]

I agree!!! Some of those DC books are very hard to find in 9.6. Just try to find a Dark Mansion of Forbidden Love #1 or 2 or 3 in 9.6. Or how about a Weird War Tales #1? I could go on and on. Granted, these are not your top "key" books, but they are almost impossible to find in 9.6 or better. Or, heck, even 9.4.

[murph0]

wayne, very high grade collectors are a weird group. I tell you, I bet a lot of these guys HAVE submitted their books just to make SURE it's a 9.8 despite the fact they don't plan to sell. I've done this with a few groups of my ASMs even though I have no intention of selling whatsoever.

 

Brian

[g-man]

You know, most of the bronze age collectors on here (which is 90%) is gonna hate me for saying this but..well...BRONZE AGE SUCKS! The only thing that came out of the 70's that was any good was Wolverine,X-men 9.4 is a cool book but come on! Iron Fist 14? Iron Man 55? Spotlight 5?? and all the hard to find oddball books that you people are looking for...bronze age books are not that rare,and don't have much of a future,I know,I know, collect what you like and There are no 5-6K+ bronze age books (besides Hulk 181 9.6/9.8) Unless the book is a 9.8,I don't see the point in buying a Iron Fist 14 in 9.9.Or even a 9.6 spotlight 5..Ghost rider sucks and so does Sabertooth,2nd rate heroes and villains.I think most of you guys should concetrate on some other books,a early FF or some early X-men perhaps? I NOT saying what i collect is for everyone or that what you collect is for everyone either,I just think money could be spend elsewhere than a Spidey 129 which is nothing but a flash in the pan type of book.Who cares about a Spidey 157 in 9.6? just a bunch of filler books in high grade,but f that's what makes you happy then,feel free to watch the bronze age market burn.

 

you're a insufficiently_thoughtful_person.

[Bugaboo-migration]

you're a insufficiently_thoughtful_person.

I'm going to have to agree with gman on this one.

[Warlord]

OK, I'll agree that there are probably hard-core high grade collectors who do spend the cash to get their comics graded while planning to keep them.

 

But that doesn't invalidate my point that there are folks like myself who have BA comics that are original owners, who aren't selling them, who aren't CGC-ing them, and that there are going to be some high grade copies among them. That was the thrust of my argument against the opening contention that there just aren't gonna be anymore BA 9.8s because they've "all" been CGC'd by now. That just can't be true.

 

 

[murph0]

I'm sure there's more, but how many 9.8 Bronze books do you really think you have? I'd guess out of the books you probably think are a 9.8, depending on how strict a grader you are, no more than half of them actually get a 9.8

 

Brian

[Warlord]

Well, it's impossible to say. For ASM, I have 2-4 copies of virtually every issue from #150-200 for example. Oughtta be at least one of each issue that is a 9.4 or better.

 

I just don't imagine that I'm the only collector who has that kind of stuff since it was new in raw form.