Common bronze 9.8's... not so common after all?

[Warlord]

Was that quote of 263K just a guess or did u reference the Standard Catalog of Comics and grab a number from there?

[500Club]

doc writes:

 

Quote:

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I'm sure you'd have some 9.8s, wayne. If you do have that many ASMs of that vintage, and finances permit, maybe a pre-screen lot would be a good idea. Several of us on this board would be interested.

 

 

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Aha, now to illustrate my point -- I don't WANT to sell my ASMs, so there's no need to get them graded. See how that works?

 

I took that into account, wayne. My counterpoint was this:

 

As for the collections that won't see the light of day, I tend to think of these as irrelevant to the hobby. If these collections never come for sale, they'll never be part of the circulating HG bronze population.

 

My aunt might have balls. Who's to know? My favorite theoretical books are the caselot of Hulk 181s rumored to be out there - San Fran, was it?

[500Club]

Doc,

 

I definitely mispoke there--by HG, I meant that category fo near perfection-9.6-9.8. And I do think they are out there in very large numbers. And the kicker is, those collections will start coming up for sale in the next decade. Those same demographic factors I mentioned will start to occur to my generation of collectors--financial hardship, death, illness and, within 20 years, retirement. Same may even decide to finally part with their collections. My point in saying that these were locked up until such events, is that the Census is not an indicator and the huge majority of super-HG books have not been slabbed.

 

This is where we are at loggerheads. I agree with you on the number of books; I just think that the multitude of tiny factors that drop a book down to 9.2 - 9.6 took alot of these books out of 9.8. These include printer damage, binding twine, careless 7-11 employees, spinner rack damage, poor handling, less effective storage 25 yrs ago, disdain for 70s books thru most of the 80s....

 

The personal owner collections, bought direct market, provide the best books, and yes, they do crop up, but I'm not sure they're supplying the demand at this point.

[blowout]

The personal owner collections, bought direct market, provide the best books, and yes, they do crop up, but I'm not sure they're supplying the demand at this point.

 

They sure aren't supplying demand, and although several factors DO lead to these type of collections coming up for sale (retirment/death etc), the likelyhood is that they won't all hit the market in a flood.

[500Club]

I loooooooove it when these kinds of collections and books crop up. The gloss on the covers is so sharp, and the colors are crisp and deep.

 

Collector sentiment being what it is, these just don't show up enough for my liking.

[Aman619]

..so did JGreen!!!

Probably right up till the boxes were delivered.

[ghoulaid]

Was that quote of 263K just a guess or did u reference the Standard Catalog of Comics and grab a number from there?

 

Hi, Wayne - that number was just a rough guess, pure speculation in order to get a feel for how many books CGC has graded so far for keys in higher grade. I now think 10% is closer than my original guess of 1-2%.

 

 

[Rival61-migration]

Also, keep in mind the attitude of most collectors. I don't think you can find a collector anywhere who does not believe he "grades tight" or "grades ultra-conservatively". But you can bet for the most part, they don't.

 

In the 70's, I was one of those guys who cherry picked issues for my collection of FF. Some I never even opened, I read one copy at the store, but purchased a different one and never opened it. I sent the best of the best in to CGC, and guess what? Out of some 40 submissions I recieved exactly zero 9.8's. As a matter of fact, I only got 5 9.6's. All the rest fell between 9.2 and 9.4.

 

Looking at some of those issues, I had (dare I dream?) actually hopes of getting 9.9 or 10.0 on them, they were that clean. But it was not to be.

 

So for all of those people out there who think their collections are loaded with raw 9.8's, I say the proof is in the pudding. Unless you have already sent in a substantial number of issues to CGC and seen exactly how your collection stacks up, you are not in a very good position to estimate how many 9.8's are potentially out there.

 

I stand by my original post. The world if full of 9-4-9.6 bronze. But the 9.8's are unicorns, as evidenced by the prices they have been realizing .

 

-Rival

[ghoulaid]

These include printer damage, binding twine, careless 7-11 employees, spinner rack damage, poor handling, less effective storage 25 yrs ago, disdain for 70s books thru most of the 80s....

 

Hi Doc - You bring up good points. Fortunately, I was able to buy most of my comics off of shelves at the drugstore and grocery store I haunted. No spinner racks for me. Also I was fortunate that I was able to buy from comic shops in my area starting around 1974. I will agree though that condition wasn't as critical back then as it is today. Even so, I always tried to pick the best copy.

[500Club]

ghoulaid - it's collections like yours that stand the best chance of getting more 9.8s than average. LMK when you are selling.

[500Club]

Also, keep in mind the attitude of most collectors. I don't think you can find a collector anywhere who does not believe he "grades tight" or "grades ultra-conservatively". But you can bet for the most part, they don't.

 

Ain't this the truth!!! If it weren't, CGC wouldn't be as successful. The guy on eBay who is selling his collection after 25 years and 'the books are NM/M' could be taken at face value.

 

In the 70's, I was one of those guys who cherry picked issues for my collection of FF. Some I never even opened, I read one copy at the store, but purchased a different one and never opened it. I sent the best of the best in to CGC, and guess what? Out of some 40 submissions I recieved exactly zero 9.8's. As a matter of fact, I only got 5 9.6's. All the rest fell between 9.2 and 9.4.

 

I had a similar experience. The books I'd bought and cared for for 25 years, and had to be NMs (how couldn't they be ), didn't hold up when I went back and inspected them a couple of years ago. Many were 9.2 - 9.4s, but few were the copies without the couple of stresses, tiny corner blunt etc., that limit the extreme grades.

 

I stand by my original post. The world if full of 9-4-9.6 bronze. But the 9.8's are unicorns, as evidenced by the prices they have been realizing .

 

I stand by my defence of this opinion. Please prove us wrong. I'm looking to buy.

[Aman619]

I had a similar experience. The books I'd bought and cared for for 25 years, and had to be NMs (how couldn't they be ), didn't hold up when I went back and inspected them a couple of years ago. Many were 9.2 - 9.4s, but few were the copies without the couple of stresses, tiny corner blunt etc., that limit the extreme grades.

 

tell me about it! All my perfectly mint books Ive carefully tended for 20 and 30 years somehow got ruined and arent so perfect. Mustve been gremlins sneaking in and reading them carelessly while I was sleeping!

[drbanner]

Interesting thread...here's some data supporting the conclusions that appear to have been reached. I've been buying a collection of bronze age books from a collector that purchased them new, and in multiples, so many of his books have never been read. Out of the last 301 books I bought from him, I submitted 28 1975-1980 books to CGC. 18 of the 28 were Top Census books, and the breakdown in grades for these unread (and carefully cared for books!) is as follows:

 

9.8 - 3 copies (11%)

9.6 - 15 copies (53%)

9.4 - 8 copies (29%)

9.2 - 2 copies (7%)

 

Now, I would guess the percentage of all 301 books in each grade is slightly smaller than the percentage in the subset of books that were sent to CGC, but not by much. So, it looks like you can expect about 10% of "warehouse/unread/file/bulk" bronze age books to grade at 9.8 or above.

 

As far as early Bronze, I think you can cut the percentage of 9.6/9.8's by a good 50-75%. I picked up that part of this collection a while back, and while I don't have the hard figures like I do for the post-75 books, I can definitely say that the percentage of high-grade copies was much, much less.

[Rival61-migration]

So it seems you are suggesting that out of PRISTINE bronze raw issues, you can expect 1 of 10 to make the 9.8 range, with around 50% hitting the 9.6 rating. I find this quite believeable, although you may have just gotten lucky..hehehehehe.

 

This would lead me to believe that for most bronze issues (unlike silver), raw issues which can grade 9.8 probably do exist in multiples for any given issue. But then the question remains, this being the case, just how rare are they actually for the total issue populations, especially on common issues that were generally unpreserved and beat to death in 10-cent bins? I would assume this number is much smaller than what you might find for Hulk #181 for example, an issue which has been highly sought and preserved for years. It IS possible after all that there are NO copies of Ms Marvel #6 left (for example) that will grade 9.8. As you shrink the populations, the likelyhood of even a single example of a 9.8 becomes smaller and smaller. Unpopular series (like this one) with lower print runs just don't survive well over the years. Sure, pick your issue of ASM bronze and you will find 9.8's out there... in fairly high multiples. Every collecter had some key spideys in their collections, even if they did not collect the series. But Strange Tales #180? How many collectors even HAVE that one? How many are being preserved, or slabbed, or traded/sold? How many were just plain thrown out or kicked down to your little brother because they would never be worth anything like your ASM's were sure to be?

 

10 years ago, a case of unopened Capatin Marvel #57 was probably not worth the cover price, and would be unlikely a single issue would have survived today in a shape to get 9.8, assuming any of them would have gotten a 9.8 on the day they shipped. They were not even worth the space to store them. A case of ASM #129 would have.

 

Even Mile High II issues seem to have an average grade of 9.2-9.4.

 

Completeist are driving the prices of common bronze 9.8 at the moment, as the relatively small number of whales with deep pockets will pay nearly anything for the elusive 9.8. But as foolish as that may sound, they will probably profit handsomely, because for many of these issues, when it arrives at their homes, they may be putting the only 9.8 copy which will ever surface into their collection. Heck, I was buying 9.8 common issues of Nova for $12.00 on E-bay. I can't remember the last time I even CAME across a Nova 9.8. All you see are 9.2-9.6, just like everything else.

 

And when there is only one, we all know what that does to the value, as long as there are people wishing to aquire it. I think most common Bronze issues that get 9.8 are severely underpriced at 25X guide.

 

-Rival

 

PS: One star for a thread this involved? What, do you have to kill Jim Starlin to get noticed around here?

[vic6string]

"I think most common Bronze issues that get 9.8 are severely underpriced at 25X guide. "

 

 

I would agree with this if there were also no 9.4 or 9.6s out there. As I have always said, the difference between a 9.6 and a 9.8 could be nothing more than the mood of the graders at the time, or any of a million other factors. If there are 9.6 copies of a book regularly getting no more than 2 - 5 times book price, then I think it is insane to pay 25 times book price for a 9.8. There simply isn't that much of a difference. How many of us have seen with our own eyes a 9.6 (or even some 9.4s) that looks better than a 9.8? We all have because you hear about it all the time on this very forum. If I can buy a raw high grade issue of a book for 5 bucks, or a slabbed 9.6 for 25 bucks, why on earth would I spend 125 bucks on a 9.8? Because a trio of experts said it was a 9.8? It has already been proven that the book could go back a dozen times and get different grades every time. Sure, they will always be within a pretty tight range....maybe 9.4 to 9.8.... but that is the difference we are talking about : just a 0.2 difference means the difference between 5 times guide and 25 times guide. And as for the common issues, sure there are less of them in high grade than the key issues, but prices are not determined by just supply, it is supply AND demand. Maybe there are just a handful of Captain Marvel 57s out there in high grade, but how many people are there looking for them? If there were only 1 copy in existence better than 9.0 of Action Comics # 1, it would be worth more than a nice beach home in Malibu because there would be people lined up for miles wanting it....but if there were only 1 copy of Star Brand # 4 in 9.0 or better, it still wouldn't be worth the cost of slabbing because how many people want that book (and of those who want it, how many insist on having the best known copy).

 

[dam60]

I'm definitely not a hard core BA collector, but can someone explain this to me:

 

I guess my point is, the next big jump in prices for the next few years in bronze will probably be in 9.8 common issues.. . It may well turn out that buying that CM #27 for $249.00 may have been a serious coup, even at 25X guide price. Just try and get another one graded 9.8, you may need to submit 30 candidates at $29.00 each, and that is what makes it so valuable.

 

I am stuck with the part that a lot of people would actually want common BA books in 9.8? Again, I am not really a hard core BA collector and the books that I do have are primarily modern, but to use the example of the Captain Marvel #27 - why would anyone even want that book slabbed? Why would anyone want that book at all? Personally I would rather keep my powder dry and put the money towards a nice cgc'ed Captain Marvel #1 or a Iron Man #55 than Captain Marvel 27 (two semi-keys at least).

 

Thoughts?

 

DAM

[murph0]

There are tons of completionists out there and therefore the no-raw-demand books will easily sell in CGC 9.8 form.

 

Brian

[500Club]

It IS possible after all that there are NO copies of Ms Marvel #6 left (for example) that will grade 9.8. As you shrink the populations, the likelyhood of even a single example of a 9.8 becomes smaller and smaller.

 

I don't think the scarcity goes this far. However, the desire (or lack of) to submit books like this is a factor. When I'm considering a submission, mid-run Ms Marvel wouldn't be a prime candidate. Submission bias will certainly be a factor with books like these.

 

I think most common Bronze issues that get 9.8 are severely underpriced at 25X guide.

 

I'll have to agree with vic on this one. With the slight difference in defects between 9.6 and 9.8, you'll see increasing price resistance as the price multiple spread between 9.6 and 9.8 increases.

 

PS: One star for a thread this involved? What, do you have to kill Jim Starlin to get noticed around here?

 

I gave you a fiver. Kill Bill Jemas or Rob Liefeld and I'll find a way to shill you another.

[Aman619]

I agree with Vic--- 9.8s today are top-of-the-line and get people excited. But there's no guarantee that this current mindset will continue. CGC could lose its pre-eminence in grading, and their 9.8s will not be so "in demand". And, as Vic said, 9.6 and 9.8 are only a "bad night before" apart in many cases. Once most collectors come to agree with this, 9.8 mania will die down and sell for much closer to 9.6s.

 

And as for the supply of 9.8 late BA books, it is argued that many of the non-key copies were mangled over the years due to lack of care. This still leaves the many many personal collections like the one Banner is buying in which EVERY lousy Marvel issue was bought and carefully stored away..... I wasnt buying much in the late 70s (sadly) otherwise Im sure I would have had some nice runs, too since I was buying on inertia and just stacking each book practically unread.