Stocks vs. Comics

[gpanalysis]

I stick by what I've said - if you have a differing opinion, then by all means voice it here. I haven't said anything others aren't already saying anyway, so don't know why you think my comments are superficial - open any newspaper or financial publication and there is analysis in even more depth than my 2cents worth.

[delekkerste]

Hi George,

 

Thanks for your very thoughtful response - I wish more posts on the Board were of this nature (even if certain Board members roll their eyes at any sign of a well-reasoned, intellectual debate).

 

I hope you didn't misinterpret my #4 point - I never meant to imply that GPA was established to fuel speculation in any way, any more than Levi Strauss was guilty of fueling "gold fever" by selling denim workclothes to the Forty-Niners during the California gold rush. It was purely an empirical observation on my part.

 

"Negative gearing" - hah!

 

Cheers,

Gene

[gpanalysis]

No problem Gene, I was not under the impression that you were implying we were fuelling any speculation, your point was well taken and understood. I was just making a point about our product and it's neutrality in reporting on the market place.

[Mushroom]

That is what I am getting at....you are just rehashing current hype documents and television reports that are mere soundbytes designed to make people instant experts.

 

Investors/speculators in the housing market make up less than 10% of the total value of property (excluding any business properties). The other 90% who own property own it because it is a family home, a future retirement place or an holiday home. This market segment (especially the largest which is owner/occupied) barely causes a ripple in terms of current market price. Generally if they sell their home then they have to buy another one...and so profits are plowed back into the market. So your parents spectacular increase is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. Even if a property is a deceased estate the majority of the money is re-invested in property by the beneficiaries.

 

So who loses.......

 

Obviously those that get caught up in the get rich schemes. Amazingly that is a very small section of the market.

 

Negative gearers originally invested in property using this facility as a means of minimising their yearly tax burden. It has been going very effectively for 2 decades. The fact that there is a capital gains some way down the track was an extra motivator when all other tax avoidance schemes were being shut down in the 80's. It is certainly coming to its'end as the ATO is currently assessing whether they should allow it to continue.

 

Property is a blue chip investment for most aussies. When people look backwards in order to predict future economic return they always go for property.

 

Is it sustainable.....not at current levels....but then we have just had the greatest property building conditions since the 50's.

 

My issue with your comments is that property is the number one speculative vehicle of the last 5 years. That is [!@#%^&^]:

 

Equities has seen the greatest speculator investment and failure of the last 5 years in Australia. The real sadness here is that 100's of thousands of moms and dads were brought into this through the abysmal failure of the Telstra, AMP and IAG floats (with the lure of big returns). They were also dramatically impacted through their super funds where it was not uncommon to see people lose 20 - 30% of their capital in a 12 months period.

 

I haven't even talked about Nasdaq........

 

I value Gene's views and his evidence (he has a track record in his field of expertise) and I certainly do see another adjustment in the comic market coming in the not too distant future. I even can stomach JC's diatribe because he keeps us all honest. I am no pollyanna....I am a collector and I am sick to death of these [!@#%^&^] threads.

 

For every article you put up I bet I can find two that say the opposite. It is a futile process unless it is your area of expertise and you know how to process the inputs. People who write the arguments usually have a personal motivation to do so.

 

Just as most of the threads that GPA post on these boards are aimed at promoting or defending your service.

 

 

I

 

 

[gpanalysis]

All I was doing was using one example of a market where speculation has driven prices up to draw some general parallels about bubbles. That's all.

 

And on GPA's post, we post mainly in response to subscriber's/collector's questions - sorry if that annoys you.

[Mushroom]

Your home site says that you have been collecting since 1983....I would have thought that as a collector you would have been more involved in the general discussions of this hobby.

 

I for one....know very little about the OZ Marvel reprints of the 70's and although I have a growing collection of 50's and 60's OZ western and crime books that were printed under labels like King (due to the Australian restriction against US published books) I know nothing about the diversity, scarecity, value.........

 

I would expect that somebody who has been collecting this long would have a wealth of things to share.

[gpanalysis]

No probs. I'm happy to contribute in any way you feel best utilizes these forums. I personally feel I know a fair bit about both the stock and property markets in Australia as I am involved in both in a number of ways, including investing. But if you feel I should stick to collectables and not talk about their investment quality, then that's cool with me.

[NoImSpartacus]

I believe the key to stock vrs comics is all in acquiring special knowledge. Thats ALL. What it comes down to is how much you know and how much you have studied to become an expert in your topic or topics. This expertise allows you to overcome all others at a show who would not normally either know what they are looking at or better still its rarity. If a person really knows what they are doing there is nothing from preventing them from taking $ 1000 to a comic show and turning it into $ 2000.00 within two days. All it takes is special knowledge. Remember that knowledge is not power, special knowledge is power. If you wish to become more powerful in your investments then crossreference your special knowledge into other areas. I study coins (roman), swords (samurai), daggers, and british/german medals and fossils. If you take comic knowledge to a military show, you just may find your doing trades where you are coming out doubling your money in no time. Same goes for coin shows, fossil shows and the like. Guys at coins show do own comics and they do want your coins. Fossil guys are the same as are military guys who have sometimes many war books. If you play your cards right and just use your special knowledge you can beat the S and P 500 every time on small transactions of $ 5000 or less. Personally if I have 1,2,3,4, or 5, I would rather take it with me to a comic, coin, military, fossil show and try to double my money over a period of a few days. With special knowledge it can be done and it can be done regularly. I believe where stocks win over is when larger sums of money have to be invested like 50 thou. Pretty hard to take that to a show and double it over a weekend. I dont believe (at least for me personally) that stocks are worth bothering with unless there are larger sums of money to be invested.

I will say though that in a second, I will always choose my knowledge over someone else making a decision for me as to what stocks or securities to buy. I would rather use specialized knowledge say for instance in the comic realm and out do any security investment. This way, I am in control, I hold the item. I get to look at it an enjoy it and I have a tangible asset. I can trade it for something of more value if I wish and I hold the cards to its end. One cannot get hurt too bad if you are buying comics in boxes for .04 cents a piece, like we did when owning a few stores a few years ago. Those bronze age books we bought then are now going for 5, 10, 50, 100, 300 a piece now. If the comic market falls to pieces, all I did was spend .04 cent a piece which is a level so low that even after a crash I would still be buying all up that I could. When there is blood in the streets one just buys at a lower level as there has to be some bottom base of worth. If you buy cheaply enough you cannot get hurt. Comics are here to stay, it just depends at what cost level we are talking about. If there is some major crash, Ill just wait and buy some more. Aready did this with Valiants. Sold all pre unitys at their height and when it died bought all the keys back again for $ 2 to $ 3 each. Funny thing is there were 3 or 4 other guys at the show that everyone was laughing at doing the same thing. Those keys could be sold off again today for a nice profit and those who were not the sheep all gained a nice reward. Its all a cycle no matter at what level its at. All it takes is specialized knowledge. If you dont have the knowledge and your just buying slabbed books cause somebody said comics is the place to be, then, you have really no business investing in books. Remember, like the movie says Sheep get slaughtered". Study and use your knowledge and you will gain profits that you would never imagine.

Remember. like Andy Warhol once said. Everybody has their 15 minutes of fame. I have had a number of them.

Number One- 1986. Purchased a Samauri sword from a gent in his basement for $ 1400.00 because I noticed a certain insignia on the blades tang. Turned out the sword was made by one of 3 Japanese living treasure sword makers. Sword was certified and found to be worth over 40 thou.

Number 2. 1989German dagger purchased for $ 380 at a show from a gent who had it in his closet. Dagger has WWII fittings and WWI top or pommel leading one to believe that the piece belonged to someone who was in both wars. Obviously an older man, and older man usually bring with them HIGH Rank. Turns out the named dagger belonged to a vice admiral who was in charge of all the waters around Athens greece. Worth 23000 thou.

Number 3. 1992 Gent walks into my then store and collects non sport cards but is so paticular that each card has to be purfect. He spends 4 hours in my store looking thru each common card and finally purchases 3 dollars worth. Says he has comics. So now, I am wondering. If his comics are in the same condition as the cards he collects that I will be floored. Sure enough, he comes in with Tales of Suspense 1 thru 30 and Fantastic Four 1 thru 11. He wanted $ 2000 for all. He goes home and comes back with 12 Weird science books complete with the envelopes they originally came in. Bought again for $ 2000.00.

Anyway, I write this for one reason only. These may seem to be lucky deals but if you study and learn and PLACE yourself in the position thru study and having the cash available, I believe you will be able to beat the stock market every time. I know I wouldnt trust the market. I trust myself.

Its not about wether there is a crash or not. Its about what level you buy the books at. You guys may agree or disagree. All I can say is what works for me and what will work for others if they gain the right knowledge.

Good collecting, Jeff

 

[delekkerste]

Its not about wether there is a crash or not. Its about what level you buy the books at. You guys may agree or disagree

 

I agree. There are no bad comics...just bad prices (well, OK, there are bad comics, but you get my point). To paraphrase Gordon Gekko, "I loved it at $X...at 10 times $X, it's an insult. I'll talk atcha."

 

Gene

[Aman619]

Its not about wether there is a crash or not. Its about what level you buy the books at. You guys may agree or disagree

 

I agree. There are no bad comics...just bad prices (well, OK, there are bad comics, but you get my point). To paraphrase Gordon Gekko, "I loved it at $X...at 10 times $X, it's an insult. I'll talk atcha."

 

Gene

 

Well, gene, I can agree with you on this, at least!