Some Critical Comments on the Current Grading System

[dad-migration]

Preface: The following comments are meant to be constructive. I think the advent of CGC and the current grading system is a positive development. However, I also believe we are only halfway to where we should be. I have a concern that the present generation of collectors and investors are being misled.

 

Some Critical Comments on the Present Grading System

 

I was over at a friend's house the other day and he showed me a GCG-graded book that had a dark oxidation shadow. It was graded 8.0 or perhaps 8.5, with the notation that the pages were cream to off-white.

 

I would not want this book, or any book that was heavily oxidized and darkened. How does it deserve a rating of VF or VF+?

 

Comic books are not coins, they are subject to two different and distinctly different types of deterioration. Structural deterioration includes tears, stress creases, blunting of corners, abrasions, etc. Chemical deterioration refers to aging of the paper and fading of the colors due to oxidation, exposure to sunlight, and a host of complex chemical reactions. The result of chemical aging is the darkening of the paper and the fading of color. In advanced stages, the pages become brittle. A book that has undergone a degree of chemical aging is not desirable.

 

The present grading system is essentially weighted 95% or more toward structure. The only measure of chemical aging that is acknowledged on the CGC label is a notation of whiteness level. In my opinion, the present scale of grading "whiteness" (which is a proxy for chemical aging) is highly misleading.

 

Look at the OWL card at:

 

http://www.downtowncomicbox.com/grading2.htm

 

The "white" is really off-white. The "off-white" is tan. The "tan" is brown, and the "brown" is really dark brown. How is it that a book which has aged for 35 years and had a marked deterioration in its whiteness level can still receive the highest grade (white)? If you want to see what these books looked like when they were new, examine the color of the morning newspaper. It is WHITE. Then hold the newspaper up to the pages of a book that (according the OWL card) has "white" pages. There is no comparison. The newsprint is markedly whiter.

 

We now have a grading system that is exacting on structure. Even the slightest of defects can remove a book from the "near mint" category to "very fine". It took me some time to get used to this system, but after some reflection, I have concluded its a good thing. Why? Because there really are some books that are structurally superior to other books that overall have a like-new appearance and feel. Its appropriate to have a grading system that distinguishes between books that are very good and those that are truly exceptional.

 

Here is where I think we are getting into trouble. Although I am not sure what the exact CGC cutoffs are, you can have a book graded 9.6 that has off-white pages. "Off-white" pages are really tan-colored. Any book with off-white pages has undergone a marked degree of deterioration and aging. Collectors and investors are paying very high multiples of guide values for these books. CGC 9.4's tend to go for about 4 times guide value, 9.6's for 9 times guide value, and 9.8's for 20 times the guide value. The point is that a 9.6 book with "off-white" pages is really much less desirable and in poorer overall condition than a book graded 9.4 with white pages. Personally, I would rather have an 8.5 with white pages than a 9.6 with off-white pages.

 

Collectors and investors who are buying "high grade" books with off-white pages (or worse) are being misled. These books are most decidedly not "high grade", no matter how perfect their structural condition.

 

The deficiencies in the current grading system are implicitly acknowledged in the 33rd edition of the Overstreet guide (2003, p. 42-43).

 

[begin quote, with my added comments in brackets]

 

"There are a group of special books, known as "pedigrees", that have high cover gloss, brilliant cover inks and white, fresh, supple pages [in other words, low chemical aging] that place them far above other books that might receive the same technical grade. Books from these pedigreed collections actually transcend their technical grade [implying the current grading system is inadequate]....This striking difference becomes apparent when comparing two comic books of the same grade, one pedigree and one generic. In most cases, the pedigree book will far outshine the generic one....To the beginner, it may seem odd that a 9.2 Mile High will bring a higher price than a non-pedigree 9.4, but to the seasoned collector with a good understanding of the hobby and its historical background, it makes perfect sense."

 

[end of quote]

 

If comic book grading is really all about "overall look and feel", then it seems to me that the current system is significantly flawed in its neglect of half the condition of the book. What needs to be done is to develop and institute a system for evaluating chemical aging that is: (1) quantitative, (2) repeatable, (3) reasonably accurate, (4) and exacting.

 

There exist today spectrometers that can measure "whiteness". The current system needs to be drastically overhauled. The top of the scale should be determined not by books that are 35 years old, but by measuring (for example) fresh newsprint.

 

I believe part of the problem is that a good percentage of the people collecting silver-age and older books today have never seen these books new or bought them off the rack. A young friend recently explained to me that the darkening of the pages was "normal". It may be "normal", and it may be "natural", but so are old age and disease. It doesn't mean they are desirable. The truth is that 99% of the 35+ old books on the market were not stored properly. In fact, most books are still not being stored properly, including books in CGC containers. The way they tell you to store your books is better than nothing, but its still inadequate. (I'll have more to say about this issue later...hint: why were Edgar Church's books better preserved than bagged and boarded books?)

 

I am well aware that collectors vary on how they individually weight structure and chemical aging. What I am suggesting is that what we need is a grading system that awards TWO scores to a book, each on a ten-point scale. One score for structure, another for whiteness. The current system of noting page color is an acknowledgement of the need, but is far short of the necessary standard.

 

It would be better if the system were revised sooner instead of later. The perpetuation of an inadequate system will ultimately undermine confidence in the market. I would encourage the people at CGC and Overstreet to investigate whether or not its technically possible to develop a quantitative system based upon instrumentation.

 

--dad

 

 

 

[Aman619]

Im a structure guy. I dont worry about the pages unless they are brown or brittle. A super tight NM cover on tan pages is superior in my eyes to a white-paged with a VF cover.

 

But for comparable books in the same grade, I can see a preference if not a higher price for a white paged copy over a cream copy. Personally I wouldnt pay TOO much extra, but as CGC grading pin-points the best copies of each book, the purest of the HG colectors will seek only the ones with the best pages, too. Thats where your second grade can come in handy.

[sckao]

I think it's been shown that a book can be under or overgraded. It's also been shown that slight cleaning and pressing (which doesn't count as restoration) can bump up a book by almost a whole point.

 

What is harder to fix (without the tag of restoration attached to it) is the whiteness of the pages.

 

I'd agree with the assessment that a 8.5 white is better than a 9.0 off-white since the grade of the book can actually change with a resubmittal while the whiteness of the pages only tend to change for the worse.

 

 

 

 

[fantastic_four]

dad--Why do you think page quality should be a separate grade from structure? A single grade assignment makes it easier to make the ultimate decision about whether to buy a book or not, although I certainly would like to see "sub"-grade assignments to various aspects of a book such as page quality, production quality, etc.

 

I agree with you that CGC and Overstreet don't take page quality into consideration enough. How a book with a heavy sun shadow like this rates a 9.4 is beyond me:

 

http://www.heritagecomics.com/common/auctions/closedviewlot.asp?s=804&l=5134&SID=53C543879978404EA4C074E732B1147E

 

From where do you know of specrometers to measure whiteness? How much do they cost?

[Aman619]

...if youre going to measure th ewhiteness of pages with a device, you re going to FIRST agree just WHERE in the book all tests will be taken. The whiteness varies on the pages, edges being usually darker than the middle of the pages. So in these cases you will ned an interior page color number as wellas an edge color!! And maybe a ombined grade average too. good luck!

[awe4one]

I'd agree.....and say that the whiteness index should be obtained from the first/splash page. Giving a general overall index would confuse collectors and leave room for descrepancies. Saying what the page level on page one is would give a good impression on the "freshness" of the comic.

 

 

Jim

[fantastic_four]

...if youre going to measure th ewhiteness of pages with a device, you re going to FIRST agree just WHERE in the book all tests will be taken. The whiteness varies on the pages, edges being usually darker than the middle of the pages. So in these cases you will ned an interior page color number as wellas an edge color!! And maybe a ombined grade average too. good luck!

 

You'd measure the lightest color you could find and measure the darkest color you can find, wherever it lies on a particular copy. Isn't that what CGC does visually for the books they give mixed page quality descriptions to?

[sfilosa]

CGC has said several times, mixed grades represent the outer edge and inner part of the page whiteness. NOT a grade in between two whiteness levels.

 

While I agree, there are certain defects that CGC takes in consideration more than other there are two choices:

 

1) Either accept it

2) Don't use their grading when purchasing books.

 

The last thing I want CGC to do, is all of a sudden change all there standards. Let's say they did agree that a book with a sun shadow shouldn't grade a NM (9.4).

 

Therefore, if another Dectective #38 goes through their hands with a slight sun shadow, but looks indentical to the one in Heritage Auction, it would grade less (and assumingly would be valued less).

 

Now, if CGC does completely change there standards, what are we all suppose to do. Send our books back for regrading with the assumption some might come back in a lesser grade. RIGHT, THAT"S GONNA HAPPEN.

 

I have said before, the only thing I believe could happen, would be CGC standards "loosen" over time, not get stricter.

 

 

 

[fantastic_four]

I have said before, the only thing I believe could happen, would be CGC standards "loosen" over time, not get stricter.

 

If that's true, then the same thing that happened in sports cards could happen with comics--a stricter company comes along and everybody with truly high-grade books which don't have some of the defects CGC turns a blind eye to submits to the stricter company instead to show that their books are truly high grade as opposed to the less-strict CGC books.

 

CGC does have the luxury of changing their standards for one glowing reason--they've never published those standards. As the first grading company on the block, they did themselves a service by not publishing those standards. Grading will only get stricter as time goes on...hopefully CGC will evolve along with that.

[sfilosa]

I do not believe that standards will get stricter. Over the past thirty years, that has been true, but now with at least one grading company that will end that trend (in my opinion).

 

While you say people with higher grade books will send then send the books to a "stricter" company, is that really ture? Are there so many "true" MINT books that have no flaws. Not in Gold, Silver and Bronze.

 

Why would I send a book to a stricter company and get a grade of NM if I could send it to CGC and get a NM+.

 

The reason there are so many coin and card certification companies is because it is much easier to grade than comics. I don't forsee five or ten grading companies. Maybe two or three but that will be it, and more than likely they will specialize (i.e. moderns at a cheaper price). While I believe there are a ton more comics that could/should be graded, all the low and mid grade books will NEVER be worth getting graded and that will stop other companies from happening. And as been pointed out many times, a lot of people tend to READ their comics. There is no need for certification.

 

I'm actually surprised when I see a book see a Silver or Golden Age book sell certified for less than $50. In most cases, the book raw would be worth the $50 so the person has in fact sold the book at a 50% discount once you factor in the CGC fees. I believe over time we will see less books get certified that "were not worthy" in the first place.

[blowout]

Why would I send a book to a stricter company and get a grade of NM if I could send it to CGC and get a NM+.

 

It would be worthwhile if the emergance of a 'stricter' company meant that confidence in CGC's grading diminished as a result. This would create a much higher the rate of return/profit on the new company's books.

[fantastic_four]

While you say people with higher grade books will send then send the books to a "stricter" company, is that really ture? Are there so many "true" MINT books that have no flaws. Not in Gold, Silver and Bronze.

 

I mean books that probably shouldn't get as high a grade from CGC as they have due to defects they don't downgrade for; these aren't necessarily "mint" books only. Examples of defects they barely downgrade for include:

 

• Printing ripples. This is a biggie...someone I know has a CGC 9.8 that supposedly has over 5 inches of creasing due to printing creases! This blows my mind...I'm trying to get a scan from him if he doesn't mind his book becoming an example.
• Page quality. CGC 9.8s can have cream pages and 10.0/9.9 books can have off-white pages. Overstreet's standards used to say off-white was a characteristic of VF books...then they changed it in the new grading guide to say you could have cream all the way up to 9.4...I expect this to eventually change. The market is paying lower prices for 9.0 or better comics with cream pages, which indicates to me that they see it as a more serious defect than CGC appears to think it is.
• Cover miswrap. I don't see this as a serious defect, but I can't see how a 9.8 can have 1/8" miswrap. It should count for a bit more than it appears to.
• Sun/dust shadows and foxing. See the Detective 38 earlier in the thread.

The reason CGC is garnering the multiples is because their grading is so much tighter than the average dealer. If a grading company comes along whose grading is even tighter than CGC's on some of the most common defects people dislike have that affect prices, CGC books won't lose all their value, but they could drop a bit and all the most exceptional material could change slabs.

[sfilosa]

Yes, I agree that will all the defects you mentioned as being not factored in the way I would do it. But is there enough questionable high grade material that needs to be graded stricter. Can another company be profitable by grading stricter. That, I don't know about.

 

Perfect example. I purchased two Bronze Age Flash comics from Showcase NE auctions yesterday (actually won a few other books at very good prices). Both Flash comics were CGC NM (9.4) and I paid no more than $27.50 for either book.

How was this a good deal to get these books graded. Even with discounts and before price increases, grading still had to cost $20 a book and it would cost a minimum of $25 now. Basically, I got the books for free and paid them back for grading.

 

My point: While I believe there are still tons of quality books to be graded, I'm not sure that there is enough material for too many more companies to beinvolved in certification (and be profitable). Yes, modern material maybe, but that still seems to be a losing proposition.

 

Go to any show and 99% of the books you see WILL NEVER be worth grading. It's low to mid grade stuff, even if it is 40 years ago. And the prices of those books haven't gone up in 10 years. Yet grading cost continue to rise.

[Aman619]

My point: While I believe there are still tons of quality books to be graded, I'm not sure that there is enough material for too many more companies to beinvolved in certification (and be profitable). Yes, modern material maybe, but that still seems to be a losing proposition.

 

I agree. Ive been thinking about this too, and as much money as CGC takes in and for all the 1000s of books they have graded so far, I think they are playing out a losing hand.

 

Their business is very expensive, and grading books is very time-intensive. And every high grade book they grade is another book (or a sale) they will never make again. While I think there are plenty of high grade books not graded so far, many of those will never be graded, and many more not until they are for sale (5 - 15 years from now).... and as you say, grading modern books is just not a winning proposition.

 

So there will come a time when submissions slow down and the rent and the payroll gets harder to make each month and the parent company says "enough". . I'm not against CGC or saying this will happen this year...just that there are a limited supply of gradable vintage comics...maybe not enough to sustain CGC forever.

 

...and if CGC cant make a go of it; if they are someday no longer around...where will we be as collectors with graded books and books that can no longer be graded?

[blowout]

.just that there are a limited supply of gradable vintage comics...maybe not enough to sustain CGC forever.

 

Time to start grading magazines then.

[Aman619]

yeah, Im sure they will ahve to explore new markets in aper collectibles. But wouldnt you say that comics are the biggest fish in that pond? Even the first Life, Sports Illustrated, Time and Fortune magazines just dont sell for thst much relative to comics....so how many collectible/gradable magazines can there be?

 

Playboy, Famous Monsters, Marvel mags, Mads,,,,,, what else? not a heck of a lot. I guess pulps would add a few but most are so low grade I cant see much enthisiasm there.

[fantastic_four]

Nobody really knows the economic feasibility of a major competitor to CGC, but apparently PSA thinks there's enough money there to put their feet in. And I'm sure they've got more experience with the graded market and have done more research than we have into the profit viability of graded comics. So the simple fact that they're trying to jump in tells me there is likely be a market for a competing certification company.

 

Besides, once there's more than one company, from what I've heard out of the coin guys, the competition alone creates new customers. People try to re-slab books from one cert company to the other to maximize their grades and/or market value. The people who get a 9.2 from the more-strict grading company B will resubmit to the less-strict grading company A hoping to get a 9.4/9.6; and the people who get a 9.6 from the less-strict grading company A will resubmit their truly exceptional books to the more-strict grading company B hoping to get the same grade or higher.

 

As long as there does turn out to be more room for competition in the graded comics market, if CGC doesn't improve--which might mean tightening their standards--they'll fall to #2. To say they can't change their standards means that you think they're at significant risk to lose market share to the competition. You're probably wrong about them not changing their standards. There's strong evidence that they've already changed them several times since the company started. We've talked about that many times before, but we could restart that debate in another thread if you like.

[drbanner]

Here is where I think we are getting into trouble. Although I am not sure what the exact CGC cutoffs are, you can have a book graded 9.6 that has off-white pages. "Off-white" pages are really tan-colored.

 

No, off-white pages are off-white pages. The silly "OWL card" was never fully embraced, I don't see anything on CGC's website saying their page whiteness scale corresponds to the OWL card examples, and I have NEVER seen a dealer at a show or in a shop pull it out. Concensus opinion is that the card makes the various whiteness levels appear darker than they should be. In any event, today's newspaper is not printed on white paper, it's printed on grey paper.

 

The problem with a single page whiteness scheme is that one scheme does not fit all the types of paper that comic books were printed on, which varies from white to grey to off-white/cream, virgin, recycled, etc.,. A book that was printed on off-white paper should not be downgraded due to having off-white paper!

 

I would not want this book, or any book that was heavily oxidized and darkened. How does it deserve a rating of VF or VF+?...Collectors and investors who are buying "high grade" books with off-white pages (or worse) are being misled. These books are most decidedly not "high grade", no matter how perfect their structural condition.

 

Says you!

 

I have no doubt that there were way more collectors and investors "misled" by buying allegedly high-grade books at conventions and thru mail order dealers than are being misled by buying high-grade CGC books.

[dolphinsrwj]

i agree with dr banner on this,there are so many people that get screwed buying comics at cons and from dealers and then find out that they were restored.cgc has helped clear most of that up.as far as page colors are concerned i have a 9.8 with cream to ow and 2 9.9s with off-white-white and that really does not bother me as long as they are not brittle.

[murph0]

Yes I've always laughed about ppl who now whine about CGC being off .2 or the page quality not always being 100 percent. I wonder if these people weren't around when "NM" actually meant VF. I'd guess not, either that or they're just looking for something to complain about.

 

Brian