The Crash???

[bronzejunkie]

I see alot of talk about the crash of comics throughout the threads here... All the hard earned money that we dumped into comics will be worth a penny on every dollar if we're lucky in the very, very near future.... The end is near... Stock up on gold and canned goods cause the road ahead is going to be grim.

 

I have noticed high grade prices coming down, sure... But, they are coming down to more realistic numbers, at or near guide and from what i remember when I collected years ago, that was the norm. maybe it isn't a crash at all, maybe everyone is just getting smart about where they want to put their money. Was it really smart to pay 12x guide for a common CGC late seventies/early eighties book to begin with, when you could pick the same issue up for peanuts raw. The Nic Cage auction seems to be the real nail on the head for some, but from what I see alot of the comics came in at a fairly high percentage(against an amazing amount of the same material released onto the market at the same auction)

 

I personally see a softenning of the market, prices are coming back to realistic numbers and we collectors are going to be the ones who benefit(Yee-Haw!!!)

 

But with all this doomsaying going on, I ask this question... If the market is dieing... Do you think it is gone forever or just slowing down for a few years like it did in the mid to late nineties(when Overstreet lowered prices significantly across the board)... Are we all doomed financially??? Or is this going to be just a small a mustard burp in the history of comic collecting that we giggle and read about in Overstreet #50???

 

Thanks

 

Bronzejunkie

 

PS:

Myself... I think we'll be fine.

[comicinvestor-migration]

When I first starting posting that the CGC market was an illusion driven by specualtor dollars, I was hammered by the CGC faithful and virtually put on a rack and had the screws turned on me.

 

Now when everything is turing out exactly how I predicted, I'm seeing all this bizarre rationalization of the quite-obvious crash. Or as you put it:

 

But, they are coming down to more realistic numbers, at or near guide and from what i remember when I collected years ago

 

or

 

Was it really smart to pay 12x guide for a common CGC

 

This is the whole point I was trying to get across, that Overstreet Guide (while flawed in some ways) at least had a long-term history of actual sale prices behind it. The CGC fad had nothing but a short-term speculator trend that naturally inflated prices beyond all reason, and is just following the standard pattern back to Earth.

 

One of my first posts was in answer to a question of where prices would be after a potential crash. My answer?

 

"Pick up a 2000 Overstreet"

[scottish]

I think prices on key issues will stabalize a little, but continue to appreciate. I think the 'novelty' of CGC has worn off on the common bronze and some silver books. I still think we'll see higher prices for 10.0 copies regardless of Age though maybe not 2k high.

 

I don't think the market will fall apart completely. It might seem that way for some that bought high. I never have and I never will think my collection will 'fund' something (like a car, education, house, etc). My comics are for my enjoyment. That isn't to say I'd be disappointed if my keys dropped to 100.00 or less tomorrow, but I won't be crying rivers. I mean I have full runs of Badger & Dreadstar (still looking for you hogations! ) so I have no illusions of value!

 

I think we'll see a short, but steep drop in common issue (CGC) prices and then stable most places and eventual slow climb. Just like the DOW if you're in it for the long term you have nothing to worry about.

[tkg2627]

I think it all depends on your point of view. If you're a glass half-empty type of person then it's a "crash". On the other hand, if you're a glass half-full type of person then it's a "readjustment".

 

It's really not surprising that this crash/readjustment is occurring with common, slabbed Bronze. A lot of these books are not hard to find in high grade at reasonable prices. Of course, high grade keys, semi-keys, and tough-to-find comics will continue to command a premium.

[bronzejunkie]

I only have a couple CGC'd comics in my collection(I'm like CI, I like the idea of a restoration check by CGC on higher priced and older items) and the rest are raw. I hope to see after this crash hits a little harder and when you go and buy a CGC'd comic from a dealer... The price of the CGC slabbing is added to the price of the book seperatly(somewhat like a tax), so that it becomes exactly what it is... A service and not a platform for obscene greed. That would be cool.

 

Also, another question... When the sports card market went tits up, how did raw cards fair? Or was it just a graded card game afterwards?

 

Bronzejunkie

[hogations]

(still looking for you hogations!)

 

Thanks scottish! Hey, if don't have any of Starlin's pre-Dreadstar adventures in Epic Illustrated, I highly recommend it. I have an extra 1 & 2 that I'd be happy to trade when you find those Dreadstars

[hogations]

"When the sports card market went tits up, how did raw cards fair?"

 

As far as I know, the market for raw cards is dead. The market for graded cards is also cooling as well - one sign is that SGC has also lowered its fees for grading cards! I dug up some of my hockey cards from the 'crazy' years and used my grading coupons and was happy to get a 98 GEM MINT for my OPC Premier Mats Sundin Rookie Now if the Leafs can get off their duffs and win some frickin' games!

[comicinvestor-migration]

Also, another question... When the sports card market went tits up, how did raw cards fair? Or was it just a graded card game afterwards?

 

Raw cards still sold/sell (albeit for low prices), as other than some high-grade items, these were not really affected by the PSA fad. What really got hit hard was the high-end buyers who bought tons of PSA 9 and 10 cards for record prices, and will probably never, ever make a cent on the transaction.

 

Naturally, no graded card held its value from those halycon days of yore, and the only ones to actually maintain some semblance of liquidity are the Gretzky's, Jordans and the like, especially as these aren't readily available in NM 9 or higher.

 

Even now, prices are still tumbling on 99% of graded cards, as the last vestiges of the speculator crowd finally leaves the arena, pockets empty, chin down and wondering where they'll get the money to send Junior to college.

 

Grading is bad news for any collectibles market, as the huge losses these "new investors" take reverberates for many years, and a large number of core collectors driven away by the "mad money prices" never return. It's always been about making quick money, and is usually started in a hobby that is on a downward slide.

 

Kind of like the last (though excessively profitable) gasp before shutdown, like Tropic Comics did, and I suspect many other comic stores will do once their CGC books are all sold. It's no coincidence that CGC's member firms make up a who's who list of influential dealers.

[blowout]

"When the sports card market went tits up, how did raw cards fair?"

 

.........Bronzejunkie, maybe you should post this question in the cards forum and see what kind of replies you get..................

 

.........i for one have absolutely no idea what happened in the card market...........

[blowout]

..........so can you see ANY reason to get a book slabbed other than for a resto check?

 

...........the reason i ask is because you posted earlier about preparing a pack of books to send to cgc, and i wondered what your motivations were?

 

..........presumably, just to sell them off before the market for cgc books dies off further............correct?

[comicinvestor-migration]

The only CGC books I buy are Key issues, for the resto check, to make sure it's a complete issue (clipped MVS anyone?) and graded fairly well. I think that is a verifiable use of the CGC system, and actually fills a real collector need.

 

Other than that, the only reason I'd slab a book would be to sell it. I can grade, I own some nice stuff, and that $15-$25 per-book grading fee can buy a whole lot of prime raw comics at current prices.

[comicinvestor-migration]

presumably, just to sell them off before the market for cgc books dies off further............correct?

 

I actually had a pack of Byrne X-Men almost done up for CGC, but now I doubt I'll send them in. The CGC market is unraveling far quicker than even I envisioned, and by the time they come back, the end price might not pay much over the grading and shipping charges.

 

That's another facet of the graded coin and card fads that no one seems to mention. Submitting comics is like a big game of Musical Chairs, and you don't want to have a huge pack of books over at CGC when the music stops.

 

There were so many PSA card magnates who made tons of money initially, but spent a lot more mass-submitting even more raw cards. Then when the card market crashed, they had boxfuls of worthless slabs, instead of a wad of cash. It's like Vegas, and you need to know when your luck is about to run out.

[fantastic_four]

Certainly the reason I busted on you still holds true today--it's not ALL CGC books that are "crashing," it's mostly the ones that were common to begin with. Pre-1966 hasn't significantly changed in the premiums paid for 9.2 and up, except that fewer reserves are being met this summer. And amongst non-comic-collectors, fewer house and credit card bills are being paid on time, too. Recessions suck; tough to gauge the popularity of comics when salaries are down and unemployment is at a 10-year high.

 

You continue to say that "CGC prices are crashing" in a broad, sweeping, almost totally unqualified way, though. Drink up while the glass is still half-empty!

[blowout]

"........and that $15-$25 per-book grading fee can buy a whole lot of prime raw comics at current prices. "

 

.....i must say i agree with that, it seems that various people on these boards are crazy for slabbing...........i hear tell of people getting half their collections slabbed for some sort of asthetic reasons........??

 

.......i say why bother, i have a real problem integrating cgc books into a run (the suckers don't fit into a comic box) and i occasionaly like to flip through my books............

 

.......buying cgc books over the net is usefull for the non-resto grading guarantee (almost).........but if i buy a slabbed book under 9.0 (i will pay guide or lower for under 9.0 usually) i will crack it from the slab to integrate into my runs.............

 

.....i won't buy cgc books if i can see the book first hand though..........whats the point.........they make for a SERIOUSLY expensive storage solution..........

[aardvark88]

You r right re storage. B/c of the thickness of each slab, I can't fit as many into a safety deposit box. Else pay more to rent a larger safety dep. box, but my bank doesn't have any available.

[Darthdiesel]

When I first starting posting that the CGC market was an illusion driven by speculator dollars, I was hammered by the CGC faithful and virtually put on a rack and had the screws turned on me.

 

But you said it with such flair and panache and that unique matter-of -fact CI attitude that the CGC faithful couldn't help but thwart your evil plot to crash the market. Now look what you've done...and it's all your fault. If anyone asks why bronze age hi-grade keys and ASM bronze commons are no longer fetching 20 - 30x OS NM guide then I'm pointing them to you....

 

I'm telling them "CI singlehandedly brought the sky down upon all of us with his end of the world CGC slab thumping..."

 

For those sellers pluggin along making a few bucks on each sale,not necessarily 20-30x guide, what does this matter? They've always sold to the highest bidder at the time adn will continue to do so. Whether it's $1000 profit or $1 profit, it is still profit and that is the best way to look at it!

[FlyingDonut]

For those sellers pluggin along making a few bucks on each sale,not necessarily 20-30x guide, what does this matter? They've always sold to the highest bidder at the time adn will continue to do so. Whether it's $1000 profit or $1 profit, it is still profit and that is the best way to look at it!

 

Amen, Brother Darth!

 

[comicinvestor-migration]

I agree, and it's looking like business as usual (except for the specs who continue to ply the 9.8-10.0 waters) for comic sales. But that's definitely not good news for speculators who bought the scam and paid 20X-30X Guide for CGC comics.

 

Man, that's some return on investment they got going there!!

[delekkerste]

"I think it all depends on your point of view. If you're a glass half-empty type

of person then it's a "crash". On the other hand, if you're a glass half-full type

of person then it's a "readjustment"."

 

Let's get away from the semantics and euphemisms and call a spade a spade:

the fall in CGC values from 10x, 15x, 20x, 30x Overstreet on some books to

wherever they are now (and still headed south for many books) is the very

definition of a crash.

 

Whether it was smart to pay those prices in the first place or whether today's

prices are reasonable is completely irrelevant.

 

Gene

[delekkerste]

"maybe it isn't a crash at all, maybe everyone is just getting smart about

where they want to put their money."

 

Again, the "why" is completely irrelevant...quite simply, the "what" is that

prices have fallen precipitously for 95% of the books out there. Sure there

are some books still stricken by Movie Hype-itis, Super High Grade-itis,

Cult Following-itis that are fetching the big bucks. But those are the

exceptions.

 

Let's throw out the euphemisms here - we're talking about a dead market, not

a dead person. It's a C

R

A

S

H

! ! !

 

Gene