9.8's ( What goes up, must come down )

[CycleGirl]

Let's look, for example, at an X-Men #139, a fairly popular book from the BA. There are 12 copies in 9.8 and 145 copies in 9.6 . Are the 9.8 copies better than the 9.6 copies? Probably they are. Would I pay more for a 9.8 than a 9.6? Of course I would, they're better! Given a chance, I'm pretty sure that I would trade 3 copies in 9.6 for one copy in 9.8 of that book. Why? Well, why wouldn't I want to have the best? I mean, Kitty Pride joined the X-Men in that issue - Woo hoo

 

Why trade 3 9.6s for a single 9.8 that could very well come back a 9.6 upon resub? The better move would be to resub the 3 9.6 copies.....

 

With my luck I would end up with two 9.4's and one 9.6 .

 

Seriously, does this work?

 

Let's approach it from the other way....

 

Are you confident that if you cracked out all your 9.8 slabs & resubbed them...that you would get all 9.8s back?

 

No, I doubt that all of them would come back as 9.8. I would hope that 80 - 90% of them would.

 

You make a point too. I wonder if anyone has ever done a gage R&R on the CGC process. That is, has a scientific method ever been used to measure the reproducibility of CGC grading?

 

CG

[Sid]

From a label point of view, I don't really see GA collectors paying multiples more for a 9.8 as compared to a 9.4 condition book. In fact, a particular issue is often times even lucky to have one in 9.4 condition. As a result, the multiple paid for a 9.6 is actually pretty close to what a 9.4 would have gone for anyways. GA collectors are often just happy to find the book, let alone in high grade

Lou, while I believe that you believe what you're saying, I think you're being extremely naive. If what you said were true, then Master Chef's "Manufactured Gold" thread wouldn't be filled with copy after copy of "improved" GA books, and we wouldn't know of so many "improved" Church books. If GA collectors really weren't paying more for incrementally higher grades, then the crack-and-resub game would've died out a long time ago.

 

I guess that I simply don't buy the argument that GA collectors will step up and pay multiples more for a GA book that's in 9.6 condtion as opposed to one that is in only 9.4 condition. I believe that the premiums in GA is more simply determined based on what the book grades at relative to what other copies are grading at.

 

For example, the Allentown copy of 'Tec 38 sold for something like $126K back in 2005 or something like a sade over 2X guide. If this book had been graded at a 9.6, I still don't buy the argument that all of a sudden, GA collectors will be clamoring to pay $250K or 4X guide for this book just for this 0.2 incrmental bump.

 

Another example would be the 9.8 Allentown copy of Special Edition Comics #1. With this uber high grade, I guess the argument would go that GA collectors would be paying multiples through the roof for this book. Not so as the book sold for only $37K or less than 3X guide for the book. You can't convince me that this book would have gone for only $19K or less if it had came in at a 9.6 or only for $9K or less if it had come in at a 9.4.

 

We've had a lot of discussion about the Church copy of Action Comics #1 on the GA boards. Generally, most board member seems to feel the book would go for a certain price whether it came in at a 9.2. or as a 9.4. Just another example whereby the book itself determines the price, moreso than the actual grade.

 

With respect to the Manufactured Gold and similar threads, the majority of these improvements and where a lot of the gains are coming are not from the uber HG end of the specrtrum. I see a lot of these improvements and price gains coming from books in 6.5 condition going up to 9.0; 7.5's going up to 9.0; 8.5's going up to 9.2.

 

I think guide at 9.2 will also have to be considered. Paying 10x at ASM #300 is just 1K while paying 10K at Action 1 is a whole different animal.

[lou_fine]

\The trend of a spreading gap between grades has been going on for 35 years. The difference is that in 10 years we've gone from where even the biggest dealers would have a hard time asking more than 3 or 4 times what a 9.2 would sell for for a 9.8-10.0 copy of many books to a 50:1 ratio that would have been surprising in a jump from 2.0-9.8 not that long ago.

 

As you have correctly stated, this increasing spread in HG prices have been around for a long time.

 

Back in the late 80's, I believe the standard spread at the time was 1:3:6 for Good, Fine, and NM. I remember in a lot of late night conversations that I was advised to always go for the high grades and to go for the keys if you could afford it. The rationale was that one day collectors would find out how rare some of these GA books were, especially in grade.

 

His theory was that spreads would hit 1:15 or 1:20 within the forseeable future and would not be surprised at all to see spreads of 1:50 or even 1:100 for some of the really rare HG books one day. Didn't really believe it at the time since his original background was more related to coins where minute differences did indeed result in significant price changes.

 

Almost 20 years later, I guess we do see the huge spreads in place and still growing at a rapid rate. Not sure if we'll ever get to a 1:100 ratio or even a 1:50 ratio, but who can really say for sure.

[tth2]

From a label point of view, I don't really see GA collectors paying multiples more for a 9.8 as compared to a 9.4 condition book. In fact, a particular issue is often times even lucky to have one in 9.4 condition. As a result, the multiple paid for a 9.6 is actually pretty close to what a 9.4 would have gone for anyways. GA collectors are often just happy to find the book, let alone in high grade

Lou, while I believe that you believe what you're saying, I think you're being extremely naive. If what you said were true, then Master Chef's "Manufactured Gold" thread wouldn't be filled with copy after copy of "improved" GA books, and we wouldn't know of so many "improved" Church books. If GA collectors really weren't paying more for incrementally higher grades, then the crack-and-resub game would've died out a long time ago.

 

I guess that I simply don't buy the argument that GA collectors will step up and pay multiples more for a GA book that's in 9.6 condtion as opposed to one that is in only 9.4 condition. I believe that the premiums in GA is more simply determined based on what the book grades at relative to what other copies are grading at.

 

For example, the Allentown copy of 'Tec 38 sold for something like $126K back in 2005 or something like a sade over 2X guide. If this book had been graded at a 9.6, I still don't buy the argument that all of a sudden, GA collectors will be clamoring to pay $250K or 4X guide for this book just for this 0.2 incrmental bump.

 

Another example would be the 9.8 Allentown copy of Special Edition Comics #1. With this uber high grade, I guess the argument would go that GA collectors would be paying multiples through the roof for this book. Not so as the book sold for only $37K or less than 3X guide for the book. You can't convince me that this book would have gone for only $19K or less if it had came in at a 9.6 or only for $9K or less if it had come in at a 9.4.

 

We've had a lot of discussion about the Church copy of Action Comics #1 on the GA boards. Generally, most board member seems to feel the book would go for a certain price whether it came in at a 9.2. or as a 9.4. Just another example whereby the book itself determines the price, moreso than the actual grade.

 

With respect to the Manufactured Gold and similar threads, the majority of these improvements and where a lot of the gains are coming are not from the uber HG end of the specrtrum. I see a lot of these improvements and price gains coming from books in 6.5 condition going up to 9.0; 7.5's going up to 9.0; 8.5's going up to 9.2.

 

I think guide at 9.2 will also have to be considered. Paying 10x at ASM #300 is just 1K while paying 10K at Action 1 is a whole different animal.

Exactly. As the absolute dollar amounts get bigger, the multiples tend to decline. This is true with later books too.

 

Lou, you're right about much of the action in the "Manufactured Gold" books being for mid-grade/low-investment grades. But, there have been more than a few instances of higher grade books being resubbed for higher grades. When I compiled my list of upgraded books about a year ago, there were a significant number of Church books that were initially 9.0s, 9.2s or higher and resubbed. Many were already top of census at the time in their original grade. Given the significant slabbing fees for many of these books, I can only conclude that it must be financially worthwhile to get the incrementally higher label.

[phoenix215]

 

For example, the Allentown copy of 'Tec 38 sold for something like $126K back in 2005 or something like a sade over 2X guide. If this book had been graded at a 9.6, I still don't buy the argument that all of a sudden, GA collectors will be clamoring to pay $250K or 4X guide for this book just for this 0.2 incrmental bump.

 

 

The thing is though, the price of the Allentown copy does start limiting the amount of people who can actually afford it and make a bid for it. To use one of the common lines running through this whole thread "if someone is willing to pay that amount for it...".

 

Imagine if by some stroke of fortune a 9.8 copy was to appear...what would the bidding be like on that?

 

I am sure we have all sat here , shaking our heads at some of the prices paid for books, no matter which age.

[evilsly]

I personally think 9.8's are insanely priced

 

so I don't buy them.

 

it's my own personal view, and in the end that's all this comes down to. The old collect what you want, and let anybody else collect what they want mantra.

 

certainly in the era I concentrate on collecting, there's too much suspicion around many of the über high grade non pedigree issues, and whether there's been any 'help' in them realising their full 'potential'

[tth2]

certainly in the era I concentrate on collecting, there's too much suspicion around many of the über high grade non pedigree issues, and whether there's been any 'help' in them realising their full 'potential'

There's a lot of suspicion around many of the uber high grade pedigree issues too.