ADVENTURE 247 ON COMICLINK

[Scrooge]

Popping in the SA forum for a whirl. Nice discussion you guys are having.

 

Aman, please could you rephrase what you meant with the census comparison as support to the multiples? It was a little unclear.

 

Tim, as re:

 

My 9.4 Western Penn copy sold on Heritage recently for a big multiple, even though there are TWO 9.6 copies out there (PC and Mass). Under the theory that the DC collector pool is no more than 2 deep, that could not and should not have happened.

 

Is it know if the buyer was 1) a dealer, 2) a long-time collector, or 3) a new entrant?

[Aman619]

I'll try-----

I was trying to explain my personal take that when there are a handful of copies above 8.5, especially with grade levels skipped, (no 9.2 BB28 for example) theres no solid basis for a multiple formula to determine the value of the higher copies. Its not a perfect theory, but my gut tells me (and what else can we go by in the end?) that with say just a few best copies from 9.0 to 9.6, (a 9.0 and a 9.6 or a 9.2 and a 9.6) that the 9.6 isnt necessarily 2 (or 3) multiple levels higher in value than the second best copy just because of the digit on the slab. I feel pricing would revert to Best/highest, then 2nd best copy for less, and not 1/4th or 1/8th the value of the 9.6.

 

flipping this around somewhat speaking of HG early SA keys, I believe it's safer and perhaps more profitable longterm to go after the 8.5s and 9.0s and gamble that they will stay the 2nd or 3rd or 4th best copies of each book, rather than chase the lone 9.4s and 9.6s for what todays market guesstimates their lofty values at. But, one might argue that if the pool of buyers is so small, then buying ONLY the best copy is the way to go.

 

Maybe all of this just derives from my ambivalence toward certain books, amplified by the copies of them in uber grades.247 is certainly one of the books I feel whose "future is all used up" - - to quote Orson Welles.

 

Id also point to Parrinos mistake in buying into the multiples for scarce and obscure Church#1s like Crack Comics by using the value formula that a 9.6 is worth MUCH More than 9.0s when there will never be a 9.2 or 9.4 copy, and especially since there arent even 4 BUYERS for the books he bought.

[linmoth]

[ Let me tell you, I've been waiting since Ron Murray's record breaking eBay auction 5 years ago for the explosion in prices that day to drive more supply into the market, but except for drips and drabs, I'm still waiting. In fact, a lot of the uber-HG books that have come onto the market in recent years, particularly the Western Penns, PCs and WMs, were actually slabbed early on.

 

Great auctions and a catalyst for some HG books to enter the market!

 

Tom

[Scrooge]

I'll try-----

 

Thanks.

 

Now, not that I am an expert since I have never bought an expensive book in my collecting days, so please take the following with a grain of salt: under your scenario, wouldn't the risk really lie in buying the 9.2 undercopy of the 9.6 when the census only shows one 9.2 and one 9.6 and nothing else above 9.0. When another 9.2 or 9.4 copy shows up, my guess is that it's the value of the 9.2 that will go down and not the value of the 9.6. Wouldn't the market at that point in time decide that since the 9.6 sold for $$$ then the new 9.4 should be $$$ / <Insert generally accepted multiple> and the 9.2 who previously was sought after as the second best copy is going to take the hit if it comes to market again. It would seem that going after the best copy is the strategy that has the best chance of conserving its value since there is demand for that particular book (Adv. # 247).

 

Anyway, you guys can discuss away.

[qualitycomix]

I'll try-----

 

Thanks.

 

Now, not that I am an expert since I have never bought an expensive book in my collecting days, so please take the following with a grain of salt: under your scenario, wouldn't the risk really lie in buying the 9.2 undercopy of the 9.6 when the census only shows one 9.2 and one 9.6 and nothing else above 9.0. When another 9.2 or 9.4 copy shows up, my guess is that it's the value of the 9.2 that will go down and not the value of the 9.6. Wouldn't the market at that point in time decide that since the 9.6 sold for $$$ then the new 9.4 should be $$$ / <Insert generally accepted multiple> and the 9.2 who previously was sought after as the second best copy is going to take the hit if it comes to market again. It would seem that going after the best copy is the strategy that has the best chance of conserving its value since there is demand for that particular book (Adv. # 247).

 

Anyway, you guys can discuss away.

 

That is generally the case but I think aman's point generally is that 9.2/9.4/9.6, it doesn't make that much of a difference, the price achieved will be high but not necessarily multiples of multiples of guide.

 

However, these aren't bronze books where the 1st 9.8 sells for $500, the 2nd 9.8 for $300 and so on. These are truly rare books where there are only 3 - 5 copies in anything close to NM and they are also desireable key books from a tough era.

 

So what's my opinion? I don't even know now I think

[Aman619]

I'll try-----

 

Thanks.

 

Now, not that I am an expert since I have never bought an expensive book in my collecting days, so please take the following with a grain of salt: under your scenario, wouldn't the risk really lie in buying the 9.2 undercopy of the 9.6 when the census only shows one 9.2 and one 9.6 and nothing else above 9.0. When another 9.2 or 9.4 copy shows up, my guess is that it's the value of the 9.2 that will go down and not the value of the 9.6.

 

when new copies come out, sure, absent another buyer, the price would have to go down. But I see the prices for the undercopies that trade for multiples LESS than the best copy now to approach the values of the best copy faster that the best copy will appreciate further into unknown territory. And, being cheaper, they are easier to sell now that key SA is a 50 to 100K proposition.

 

anyway, I don't know, Who does? I'm just making decisions as things go along. Hope I'm doing OK at it. We started talking about one book: 247 in 9.2 for an asking price of $35K . My internal calculator still says "no way."

[Silver]

I just don't think that theyare as desirable as you guys think. The folks who *generally* collect these books care more about owning a copy versus owning the best. Of coarse there are exceptions, but I don't think this book will achieve the prices you guys predict. What would have been more interesting is to have either seen it in a Heritage auction or Comiclink no reserve. With the 35K price he has on it now...we will never know what it's really worth.

[Scrooge]

when new copies come out, sure, absent another buyer, the price would have to go down. But I see the prices for the undercopies that trade for multiples LESS than the best copy now to approach the values of the best copy faster that the best copy will appreciate further into unknown territory. And, being cheaper, they are easier to sell now that key SA is a 50 to 100K proposition.

 

I see. The price on the 9.2 would creep up every time it comes to market conditional on no other new 9.X added to the census since the previous sale. Scarcity would become THE pricing factor in those cases. Makes sense.

[tth2]

I was trying to explain my personal take that when there are a handful of copies above 8.5, especially with grade levels skipped, (no 9.2 BB28 for example) theres no solid basis for a multiple formula to determine the value of the higher copies. Its not a perfect theory, but my gut tells me (and what else can we go by in the end?) that with say just a few best copies from 9.0 to 9.6, (a 9.0 and a 9.6 or a 9.2 and a 9.6) that the 9.6 isnt necessarily 2 (or 3) multiple levels higher in value than the second best copy just because of the digit on the slab. I feel pricing would revert to Best/highest, then 2nd best copy for less, and not 1/4th or 1/8th the value of the 9.6.

 

flipping this around somewhat speaking of HG early SA keys, I believe it's safer and perhaps more profitable longterm to go after the 8.5s and 9.0s and gamble that they will stay the 2nd or 3rd or 4th best copies of each book, rather than chase the lone 9.4s and 9.6s for what todays market guesstimates their lofty values at. But, one might argue that if the pool of buyers is so small, then buying ONLY the best copy is the way to go.

Perhaps not surprisingly, I come to the opposite conclusion. Because SA isn't as rare as the truly rare GAs, there is a reasonable possibility that an additional 9.2, and maybe a 9.4 copy, of many books could eventually emerge. However, the odds would be extremely against more than one 9.6 or better copy existing. Therefore for those collectors into owning the best known copy and wanting to be fairly confident that their copy will retain that status, I don't view it so much as paying a multiple over lower grades as paying an "assurance of highest grade" premium, which could be hefty for a 9.4 (for certain issues and titles) and would increase significantly for a 9.6 or 9.8 copy.

 

Maybe all of this just derives from my ambivalence toward certain books, amplified by the copies of them in uber grades.247 is certainly one of the books I feel whose "future is all used up" - - to quote Orson Welles.

This was pretty obvious. At least you're honest about it. I've actually been surprised by the vehemence of the anti-Legion/247 faction.

 

By the way, I just want to say that I've really enjoyed the discussion in this thread.

[HouseofComics.Com]

I'm still surprised by the anti-Legion comments too. Not for nothing was the Legion perhaps the most popular DC archives series (maybe supplanted by the Spirit now). While DC was slowly moving forward with Batman, Action, Detective, etc. it was just bam, bam, bam, Legion was already up to the Grell years!

[tth2]

Popping in the SA forum for a whirl. Nice discussion you guys are having.

Welcome to the SA forum Michael, we don't see you in here often except for the Eiffel Tower thread.

 

My 9.4 Western Penn copy sold on Heritage recently for a big multiple, even though there are TWO 9.6 copies out there (PC and Mass). Under the theory that the DC collector pool is no more than 2 deep, that could not and should not have happened.

 

Is it know if the buyer was 1) a dealer, 2) a long-time collector, or 3) a new entrant?

The identity of the buyer(s) of the Flashes in the Heritage auction (and the underbidder) is a big mystery to me, which I would love to solve. I too would like to know who's been hoovering up all the books and which of the 3 categories you've listed above they fall under.

 

I DO know that the PC 9.6 copy is owned by a big Flash collector, while the Mass 9.6 copy is owned by a big collector, but one whose tastes don't usually run to DCs.

[tth2]

I'm still surprised by the anti-Legion comments too. Not for nothing was the Legion perhaps the most popular DC archives series (maybe supplanted by the Spirit now). While DC was slowly moving forward with Batman, Action, Detective, etc. it was just bam, bam, bam, Legion was already up to the Grell years!

Exactly.

 

Personally, I have more of an emotional attachment to Legions than any other DC title, with JLAs running a close second. I got hooked during the Cockrum/Grell years, and then had a blast making my way back and reading the Shooter run, and then continuing to work my way back further.

[jkc313]

Wow! Looks like I struck some nerves. Silver, I don;t know who you are but I love you! Krypto anyday!! In general, I appreciate all the comments. Whoever got a restored 1.8 247, that's decent. As much as I loathe the early legion, I want a $200 copy just to have one. For all of you that say the Legion is one of DC's most popular titles, NOT SO. If you wish to ammend that to say post 1968 I'll go along with it. Being a great deal older than most of you I can attest that from 1960- 1965, ADventure Comics was not a popular title. DC seemed to be killing itself with poor quality books. Showcase, B&B, ATom, MIS, Hawkman, JLA, Flash were all interesting and fun, but the older titles simply sucked and Marvel was cleaning house.

HOW COULD I FORGET SHOWCASE 22?!!?!?!? My bad. One of my all time favorir=tes and I need a low grade copy. Krypto is NOT a newcomer. Good Dog art has been popular for 30+ years. I started getting requests for 210 in the late 70's, as well as 247 but easily 5:1 for 210. the book is nonexsistent compared to 247 and high grades don't exist. I hope Dallesandro will sell me his 9.0 someday! I have a nice 3.5 but have never seen a high grade and I've seen many high grade 247's over the years. Anything else you folks want me to write about to stir up trash??

keith

[tth2]

Anything else you folks want me to write about to stir up trash??

Whatever you want to, Keith! I enjoyed your columns in CBM back in the day, and enjoy when you post your opinions here!

 

Given that the General Forum is a totally godforsaken wasteland these days (not because of flame wars but because the threads are all OT and/or totally lame and/or started by lightweight newbies), and even the GA Forum is attracting its share of troublemakers these days, the SA Forum seems to be the last refuge for those wanting to engage in spirited, yet civil, debate about substantive topics.

[aardvark88]

j Keith,

You are right about 1st Krypto being non-existant as it came out before Showcase 4. Cgc census says Adv #210 has 14 unrestored copies vs Adv #247 74 unrestored and 88 in total slabbed so far.

[drdonaldblake]

great to have the "old timer" keith chipping in here on the boards hehehe

 

 

tim, when ud acquire your 9.4 247 and whod u acquire it from?

[Aman619]

Ive posted it before, but this seems like a good time to put it up again...

Nice and tight, but its got enough issues to keep it out of the uber grades...

 

[Aman619]

Perhaps not surprisingly, I come to the opposite conclusion.

 

well, its always been a surprise to me to find myself on th opposite viewpoint from you! But, Im becoming a believer that you are probably correct about usd,,,,and as much as I am pleased with buying decisions I have made, my hats off to you for working the high end and making it pay off so handsomely..

[markseifert]

Very nice. Look at the blinding gloss on that book.

 

[tth2]

usd

 

Nice #210! It's always an exciting occasion when you decide to show some of your great collection!