ADVENTURE 247 ON COMICLINK

[aardvark88]

At least there are more Legion collectors than Krypto collectors. I could never understand why select dealers love the 1955 Adventure # 210 1st Superdog. Ostreet nm is around $5,300. Thought I saw 1 on cLink a couple of days ago for an aggressive over guide asking price.

[qualitycomix]

Census disparity would be more relavent if the demand for each of those books in top grade was same. Does anyone really belive that if the third best ADV 247 went for say 20K, what would you expect the 9.4 or 9.6 to bring...multiples of that? I am saying the demand for that book is such that people would find the 8.0 raw copy on metro or the 8.5 slabbed copy a relative bargain since the book exists in far fewer numbers than a Marvel key.

 

I really think this is an apples/orange comparison. But hey...what do I know

 

To continue this discussion for a few more rounds, a TOS #39 would sell for what? $45K-50K? That's 2.5X what a 9.2 sells for. And the Adv 247 is 5X more rare than the TOS 39. Yes, it's apples and oranges on demand, but so is the scarcity. I feel a 9.4 Adv 247 could crack 35-40K. And why wouldn't a 9.6 Adv #247 be an 70-80K book?

 

Maybe DC SA collectors don't have that kind of coin to drop like Marvelites. But that could change, if you do comparisons to what some of the Marvels do.

 

Wait till a Legion movie comes out.

 

And I'm just playing devil's advocate here as I don't necessarily hold either opinion to be fact, this is just for fun and supposition.

[Aman619]

your math is correct. but, sthe multiples dont always apply to certain books the same way as others. ADV247 is a low demand book. Its also very scarce in HG. Its scarcity leads its selles to shoot for multiple-derived prices that make sense, except fall apart when the low demand is factored in.

 

On paper this book should sell for between 20 and 35, and maybe somebody will grab it. Maybe not. I know I wont pay those numbers cause I suspect the 9.4 and 9.6 wouldnt sell for much more. So why grab the 3rd best copy for what the best copy (2 grades better) would go for?

 

Or maybe thats just cheap, cautious me talking. Hey Tim, if this were the 9.6 listed for 65K, would you buy it? or the 9.4 for 50K?? Anybody else? d be happy to be wrong and see a Sales Pendinf in the morning.... but Im not holding my breath.

[batman_fan]

I feel the same way about Detective 225. Seems pretty high in the guide but the interest at the current prices regardless of grade seems to meet with some resistance.

[tth2]

I think the Adventure 247 is probably worth 20-25K.

I would agree with that assessment.

 

I guess I don't due to the fact that there is a 9.4 and a 9.6 out there. While I love the Legion as much as anyone I don't think the market will pay out for this 9.2 the kind of money you guys are talking about. I think 10-12 tops on that copy.

 

Metro has a raw 8.0 (pretty copy) for 5K, they also have a slabbed 8.5 for 7.7K. A 6.0 slabbed just went on eBay for 1300ish.

 

The fact that Tim has a high grade copy and Ian has one as well kind of shows that this book isn't as scarce as Overstreet used to proclaim it was. We now have 3 copies 8.0 or better for sale right now on the market, plus a mid grade (5.0) on Comiclink.

 

So while Tim would love to see that 9.2 go for a record price due to him owning a nice copy as well, I would like to see it tank since I don't have my copy yet.

Very interesting discussion guys. If I could just add my 2 cents (or perhaps my 10 cents)...

 

In the SA market, even the 1950s SA DC market, I don't think the valuation of a 9.2 or higher copy is affected much, if at all, by prices and availability of 8.0s and 8.5s. Let's be clear that these are not "rare" books in a GA sense where they can't be found in any grade. They are relatively plentiful in mid-grade to VF. The premium really starts to sky-rocket at the VF/NM and above level because it's really really hard to find copies that don't have a few creases on the spine or corners, and for better or worse there are collectors who obsess over things like that. I know that in my buying heyday, the market price for an early Flash in 8.0 or 8.5, or even 9.0, had ZERO impact in my valuation process for the same Flash in 9.4.

 

For purposes of availability in the Census, since I own the 9.4, I think people can pretty much treat it as not existing, because despite my recent selling it's one of the books that I have no intention of parting with (unless I can get my hands on the 9.6 copy). I also don't think the owner of the 9.6 copy has any intention of selling it, since I've used every resource at my disposal to try to find out who it is and have yet to solve that particular mystery. So whoever it is clearly has not intention to put it on the market anytime soon.

 

BTW, who is "Ian" who owns another HG copy?

[tth2]

I guess there are some/many MVs that I haven't seen. Maybe the majority of the copies that are nice are sitting in private collections and only the poorer page quality books get released.

 

Usually the case. None of the pedigree collections that I'm aware of have copies in uniformly the same condition -- they vary up and down from the norm.

Curator's about as close as I've seen to uniformly spectacular grade and freshness.

[tth2]

This book reminds me of a TOS #39

 

TOS #39s:

8.5s sell for 7 - 9K

9.0s sell for 12-14K

9.2s sell for 18-20K

 

Combine that with the fact that there are very few HG #247s and I think that 20K+ is reachable fairly easily.

 

Sorry Brent, but I can't agree. You saying that Iron man's first appearance and the LSH are roughly the same? I don't think there are nearly the amount of Legion collectors as there are people who would want Iron Man's first appearance.

 

Also, look at how many nice copies are for sale...sitting....is there that many TOS 39's sitting on websites in HG waiting for sales?

 

If the asking price of the Adv. #247 9.2 dropped to the TOS 39 9.2 range of 20k it wouldn't be sitting on a website either. Or if the TOS 39 asking price was 35K, it might be sitting a while.

 

Census for TOS 39

2 in 9.6

3 in 9.4

12 in 9.2

 

Census for Adv. 247

1 in 9.6

1 in 9.4

1 in 9.2

 

So, although the desirability of the TOS 39 is much greater (ie more collectors want it), the scarcity of the Adv 247 more than makes up for that fact. In other words, there may be 50 high grade TOS 39 collectors but there needs to be only 5 HG Adv. 247 collectors to make this number work.

 

2006 OSPG TOS 39 9.2: $9,500

2006 OSPG Adv. 247 9.2: $8,500

I think you've made a great analogy, Brent. TOS 39 is more plentiful in HG, but of course the customer base is much deeper.

[tth2]

your math is correct. but, sthe multiples dont always apply to certain books the same way as others. ADV247 is a low demand book. Its also very scarce in HG. Its scarcity leads its selles to shoot for multiple-derived prices that make sense, except fall apart when the low demand is factored in.

 

On paper this book should sell for between 20 and 35, and maybe somebody will grab it. Maybe not. I know I wont pay those numbers cause I suspect the 9.4 and 9.6 wouldnt sell for much more. So why grab the 3rd best copy for what the best copy (2 grades better) would go for?

 

Or maybe thats just cheap, cautious me talking. Hey Tim, if this were the 9.6 listed for 65K, would you buy it? or the 9.4 for 50K?? Anybody else? d be happy to be wrong and see a Sales Pendinf in the morning.... but Im not holding my breath.

This is what I mean by you being behind the SA DC pricing curve. Sometimes it seems to me like you're still partying like it's 1999. I can tell you that I've got a standing offer from a very reputable collector above the price you've mentioned for my #247. And yes, I would pay $65K for the 9.6 copy (if it was a solid 9.6) in a heartbeat.

 

To be clear, I don't think the 9.2 copy will sell at $35K either, nor would I advise anyone to pay that much for it. My initial statements about it being a great price were made tongue in cheek because some here know I have the 9.4 copy.

[HouseofComics.Com]

At least there are more Legion collectors than Krypto collectors. I could never understand why select dealers love the 1955 Adventure # 210 1st Superdog. Ostreet nm is around $5,300. Thought I saw 1 on cLink a couple of days ago for an aggressive over guide asking price.

 

I'm glad you said that because that was my initial thought after reading the first posts too.

 

However, I get lots more requests for 210 than 247. Odd, isn't it?

 

Marc

[adamstrange]

I guess there are some/many MVs that I haven't seen. Maybe the majority of the copies that are nice are sitting in private collections and only the poorer page quality books get released.

 

Usually the case. None of the pedigree collections that I'm aware of have copies in uniformly the same condition -- they vary up and down from the norm.

Curator's about as close as I've seen to uniformly spectacular grade and freshness.

 

Let me re-phrase: consistency in a 10 cent pedigree collection.

 

PC would certainly be up there for 12 centers.

[adamstrange]

At least there are more Legion collectors than Krypto collectors. I could never understand why select dealers love the 1955 Adventure # 210 1st Superdog. Ostreet nm is around $5,300. Thought I saw 1 on cLink a couple of days ago for an aggressive over guide asking price.

 

I'm glad you said that because that was my initial thought after reading the first posts too.

 

However, I get lots more requests for 210 than 247. Odd, isn't it?

 

Marc

 

I believe it, and it makes no sense to me.

 

Unless there's a strong sub-conscious "dog is a man's best friend" thing going on.

[HouseofComics.Com]

I guess part of it is the hot book mentality. I think it moved into that realm a few years ago (and doubtless has cooled off some). Whereas Adventure 247 has been a big deal for a long time.

[Aman619]

I guess part of it is the hot book mentality. I think it moved into that realm a few years ago (and doubtless has cooled off some). Whereas Adventure 247 has been a big deal for a long time.

 

I agree. Between the 2 books 210 is a newer kid on the block compared to 247 which has always been a top tier SA DC key. I dont think people love Krypto so much they value his place in the Superman mythos as a legitimate SA character who spawned dozens of stories over many years. And 210 is sort of a latter discovery of a hottish book that is extremely tough in grade.

[Aman619]

your math is correct. but, sthe multiples dont always apply to certain books the same way as others. ADV247 is a low demand book. Its also very scarce in HG. Its scarcity leads its selles to shoot for multiple-derived prices that make sense, except fall apart when the low demand is factored in.

 

On paper this book should sell for between 20 and 35, and maybe somebody will grab it. Maybe not. I know I wont pay those numbers cause I suspect the 9.4 and 9.6 wouldnt sell for much more. So why grab the 3rd best copy for what the best copy (2 grades better) would go for?

 

Or maybe thats just cheap, cautious me talking. Hey Tim, if this were the 9.6 listed for 65K, would you buy it? or the 9.4 for 50K?? Anybody else? d be happy to be wrong and see a Sales Pendinf in the morning.... but Im not holding my breath.

This is what I mean by you being behind the SA DC pricing curve. Sometimes it seems to me like you're still partying like it's 1999. I can tell you that I've got a standing offer from a very reputable collector above the price you've mentioned for my #247. And yes, I would pay $65K for the 9.6 copy (if it was a solid 9.6) in a heartbeat.

 

To be clear, I don't think the 9.2 copy will sell at $35K either, nor would I advise anyone to pay that much for it. My initial statements about it being a great price were made tongue in cheek because some here know I have the 9.4 copy.

 

Im not sure Im "behind in the curve" as you put it. Maybe its just semantics and you are right and I read that expression differently. Im very gungho, but up to a limit for DC keys. I top out at around 20-30K. Above that I just see an unsure upside vs Marvel keys even though they are more plentiful. Im glad you have a buyer(s) for your 9.4 and your 28. I guess I should have more confidence (as you have shown) that there is at least ONE collector out there willing to pay more than I would have for such books. But I have found myself unwilling to go as far as you have for them. And Im glad for both of us I dint keep bidding on the 28 or one of us would have spent a heckuva lot more for it than you did...

 

247 is just a book Ive always been cautious about. Too cautious to put this kind of money into like I have into other stuff over the years.

 

The other factor Im sure I have expressed is the census for these DCs. When there is only one copy in each grade above 8.5, I DO NOT subscribe to the Multiples Theory as I do for a full census of say a Marvel key with 12/6/2/1 in the 9.2 and up grades. That kind of "full census" exhibits a rationale for the multiples we see. On the other hand, when there are only one copy in each grade, or missing copies, the support for multiples fall apart IMO. Just how I see it, and play the game.

[tth2]

Im not sure Im "behind in the curve" as you put it. Maybe its just semantics and you are right and I read that expression differently. Im very gungho, but up to a limit for DC keys. I top out at around 20-30K. Above that I just see an unsure upside vs Marvel keys even though they are more plentiful. Im glad you have a buyer(s) for your 9.4 and your 28.

Your response sums up what I mean by "behind the curve". I think there is a difference between saying "I won't pay more than 20-30K for a book", which is your own personal preference/limit, and saying "therefore, the current market value of that book is only 20-30K". I've hit my own limits on what I'm willing to pay for certain books, which is why I've sold down parts of my collection this past year. Just couldn't compete at the prices that were being paid. But that doesn't mean that I think my own price ceiling reflects the current market price. The current market price is whatever the current market is, as supported by empirical data.

 

I guess I should have more confidence (as you have shown) that there is at least ONE collector out there willing to pay more than I would have for such books. But I have found myself unwilling to go as far as you have for them. And Im glad for both of us I dint keep bidding on the 28 or one of us would have spent a heckuva lot more for it than you did...

I think the market is deeper than you think. Early HG SA DC prices have been on the move over the last couple of years, generally across the board (although obviously some segments are hotter than others). At first I thought it was just an anomaly, but when it kept happening and I kept getting beat out at multiples that would previously have blown out the competition, I realized it was a real trend. I don't think it's just two deep-pocketed buyers bidding each other up either, as evidenced by the continued strong prices when a second 9.4 copy of a particular issue comes to market (as with Flash #125, for instance).

 

I guess one difference between us is that when I was in buying mode and really wanted a book, I never CARED whether there might be some other person out there willing to pay more. In fact, if I won in a public auction, by definition wasn't I willing to pay more than anyone else?

 

The other factor Im sure I have expressed is the census for these DCs. When there is only one copy in each grade above 8.5, I DO NOT subscribe to the Multiples Theory as I do for a full census of say a Marvel key with 12/6/2/1 in the 9.2 and up grades. That kind of "full census" exhibits a rationale for the multiples we see. On the other hand, when there are only one copy in each grade, or missing copies, the support for multiples fall apart IMO. Just how I see it, and play the game.

Uh, not following you here.

[brasseye]

The other factor Im sure I have expressed is the census for these DCs. When there is only one copy in each grade above 8.5, I DO NOT subscribe to the Multiples Theory as I do for a full census of say a Marvel key with 12/6/2/1 in the 9.2 and up grades. That kind of "full census" exhibits a rationale for the multiples we see. On the other hand, when there are only one copy in each grade, or missing copies, the support for multiples fall apart IMO. Just how I see it, and play the game.

 

Are you saying that the census for these books has not fully matured? And that even though a given book may exhibit only single copies within given grades, that the existance of one copy in top grade does not preclude the existence of another. Or to take it even further, that the existence of one copy of a given book in top grade AUTOMATICALLY includes the highly probably existance of other's books in that grade, or similar.

Thus overall, it would be said that the census for early SA DC key's is not as mature as say comparable SA Marvel key's. And to pay multiples of the basis of current census figures would be foolhardy?

[qualitycomix]

Interesting conclusions that everyone comes to with the same or similar input. Most of the HG SA DC market is speculation, because the keys get snapped up so quickly in uber grades and are not seen again, that it's hard to judge the true market of such books.

 

The Marvel market is more stable, because there's more collectors, but more importantly, there's more copies out there and more copies are selling, therefore setting price points for the books in various grades.

 

HG SA DC keys have no such luxury. For instance, on gpanalysis, the Adv 247 had an 8.5 sell in 2002 for $4,600. No copies above 7.5 since.

 

On Flash 105, a 9.4 sold 2 years ago for $30K, but a 9.2 sold recently for $27K (Slobodian). Does that make the 9.4 at least a 40-45K book? It does too me assuming the PQ is nice.

 

On the B+B #28, a 9.4 sold for 60K in 2004 and no copies above 9.0 since.

 

Maybe Tim bought all of these and maybe just some, but the scarcity factor makes the market unstable, the demand may be greater than we think.

[Silver]

We can debate this forever, and that's cool, but the real test will be does the 9.2 get any bids or not? We can speculate all day long....

 

I totally disagree about the Adventure 210 comment. In every way shape and form it is a more desirable book then the 247. And for those of us that have collected SA DC for a long time....there is nothing new about it being a sought after rare key. Same with Action 242. Those two books are every bit as desirable as the Adventure 247 and pretty much have been at least the last twenty years. I remember the 247 being considered a key in the 70's but it's status has eroded alot as the Legion fans are small in number. Maybe the new Legion cartoon might change that a bit....who knows. The Legion's current popularity is bolstered up mostly by Supergirl.

 

Someone said "who is Ian?". He goes by steelcity here.

[tth2]

On Flash 105, a 9.4 sold 2 years ago for $30K, but a 9.2 sold recently for $27K (Slobodian). Does that make the 9.4 at least a 40-45K book? It does too me assuming the PQ is nice.

Definitely, if it's a legit 9.4, and not a clean and press job. The 9.4 Flash that sold for $30K was definitely cleaned, and in my opinion most likely pressed, and ended up selling for not a lot more than when it first sold on Heritage as a 9.2 (when it was Roter's book).

 

On the B+B #28, a 9.4 sold for 60K in 2004 and no copies above 9.0 since.

There currently ARE no copies above 9.0, except for the 9.4.

 

Maybe Tim bought all of these and maybe just some, but the scarcity factor makes the market unstable, the demand may be greater than we think.

The funny thing is some of people here are making it sound like the scarcity of uber-HG is a temporary thing, and it's just a matter of time before more copies start appearing to help flesh out the market. Let me tell you, I've been waiting since Ron Murray's record breaking eBay auction 5 years ago for the explosion in prices that day to drive more supply into the market, but except for drips and drabs, I'm still waiting. In fact, a lot of the uber-HG books that have come onto the market in recent years, particularly the Western Penns, PCs and WMs, were actually slabbed early on. The 9.4 Flash 105 and 9.4 JLA 105 that sold on Heritage were both actually resubs of 9.2s.

 

Has the scarcity helped to drive up prices because of pent-up demand? Sure. But I don't think the appearance of additional HG copies will be nearly as devastating as others, particularly Aman, seem to think. A good case in point is Flash 137, which is a minor key. My 9.4 Western Penn copy sold on Heritage recently for a big multiple, even though there are TWO 9.6 copies out there (PC and Mass). Under the theory that the DC collector pool is no more than 2 deep, that could not and should not have happened.

[Paratrooper]

I just purchased off ComicLink a Adventure 247 CGC 1.8 minor resto for $200, anyone think that was a good buy, or did I waste my money?