2007 Guide Prediction Thread

[Sal]

OK, every year for at least the last ten, I’ve heard the same old gripes regarding how ‘out of touch’ OS price rises are. Same story every year.

 

Now, if that were actually the case, the situation would have been compounded over the last ten years, yes? If OS gives a 5% rise annually, but the market is actually showing a 20% rise, the compounded differentials would by now be quite staggering, yes? Wouldn't we’d have, let’s say, an FF #30 in 9.0 Guiding at $275, but actually selling for…oh, I don’t know…three trillion dollars?

 

Astoundingly, though, whilst Guide says $275 in this example, GPA says $246.

 

Now, how the hell could that have happened…

 

quiet, you. you're spoiling a number of perfectly good rants with your facts and statistics

[Griz]

I predict all books in my colleection will go down by 5% and all books I need to fill holes in my runs will go up by 5%.

 

I second that...

[skybolt]

OK, every year for at least the last ten, I’ve heard the same old gripes regarding how ‘out of touch’ OS price rises are. Same story every year.

 

Now, if that were actually the case, the situation would have been compounded over the last ten years, yes? If OS gives a 5% rise annually, but the market is actually showing a 20% rise, the compounded differentials would by now be quite staggering, yes? Wouldn't we’d have, let’s say, an FF #30 in 9.0 Guiding at $275, but actually selling for…oh, I don’t know…three trillion dollars?

 

Astoundingly, though, whilst Guide says $275 in this example, GPA says $246.

 

Now, how the hell could that have happened…

 

I don't know, I keep looking at that women in your sig line.

[bluechip]

FOUR PERCENT!!

 

 

Suck on that, Wall Street!

 

 

 

Maybe Overstreet should put out a stocks and commodities guide, too. Prices updated every year, and when there's an absolute effing all-out boom like there is now in comics, your stocks will go up in the guide FOUR PERCENT.*

 

 

 

 

Wooo Hooooooooo!

 

 

 

*Assuming, of course, you don't buy your stocks "retail" and sell 'em "wholesale"

 

I am not a big fan of Overstreet and his valuation methods, however your constant criticism/scarcasm regarding Overstreet and the way they price the comics in the guide is getting a tad old. If you don't like how they price comics in their guide, don't buy it.

 

 

My failing to pay for a book with bad information in it will not prevent others from buying it and from relying on that bad infornation in ways that adversely affect prices.

 

My "constant" sarcasm is actally far less constant than the misinformation itself.

 

When people put bad information out there which affects the dollar value of your possessions, why should I or anyone else be expected to mention it only once or twiece and move on, while the bad information that affects us gets repeated and reinforced constantly?

 

Seems hardly fair.

[garthgantu]

When people put bad information out there which affects the dollar value of your possessions, why should I or anyone else be expected to mention it only once or twiece and move on, while the bad information that affects us gets repeated and reinforced constantly?

 

Seems hardly fair.

 

I agree with this sentiment in the main, and have a few other comments:

- My impression was that Overstreet's dropping of 9.4 prices and "scaling back" to 9.2 prices was directly influenced by the multiples of guide being paid for many 9.4 and above books (especially slabbed, of course). While not a perfect solution, it at least showed that Overstreet was paying attention.

 

- My collection, which is all over the place in terms of genres, grades and Ages (with only maybe 200 books from the early part of the Modern Age) appreciated by roughly 8-10% each year from 2001 to 2004, and by about 4-5% in '05 and '06. This seems to reflect a shifting of Overstreet's overall valuing of books in the 8.0 and above grade range.

 

- I'm curious to see how long books in the 6.0 to 7.5 grade range (especially Silver and Bronze Age books) continue to muddle along with 0-2% increases in value - or even less in some cases (books in those grade ranges have fallen in price in some instances in the past couple of OS Guides). While I don't dispute the rarity of SA and BA books in 8.0 and above (with some exceptions), I do question whether the same books in 6.0 to 7.5, or even 4.0 to 7.5, are not appreciating in value - they seem to command ever-higher percentages of guide on eBay and at conventions...

 

While far from perfect, the OS Guide is helpful to me as benchmark; but the OS Guide's value is waning because its accuracy for mid- and lower-grade books seems dubious, and for higher-grade books there's CPA etc.

[CKB]

While far from perfect, the OS Guide is helpful to me as benchmark; but the OS Guide's value is waning because its accuracy for mid- and lower-grade books seems dubious, and for higher-grade books there's CPA etc.

 

Well said. When dealing with mid-low grade late silver and bronze and copper, (and mid-grade includes VF-VF+ today for late silver and bronze, and VF/NM-NM- for most copper!) the OS guide prices are useful to me only for relative value. The raw numbers in the guide at those grades are no longer useful a huge percentage of the time.

 

IMHO.