Help figure this out? Grade of Fine down from 50% of mint to 33% ?

[NoImSpartacus]

Help me figure this one out? If my thinking is wrong or if there is some misinformation please advise.

 

I have been going over much information in comparing past overstreets to current as well as CBGs.

 

Here is how it appears to me:

For years, in Overstreet, Fine was considered -50% of NM. Now according to CBG the books in fine condition are -68%. The majority of comic stores back issues are of fine grade. In our stores, we saw the same. A lot of fine grade. The vast majority of inventories for comic stores and show dealers are Fine. Have the books that are the "heart" of the market lost 18% of their value !?!?!?!? Having a loss of 18% is not good for anyones equity. Just think if an inventory was $100,000 of fine books it would now be worth only $82,000 - a loss of $18,000.. This can't be good news for stores/dealers.

 

To look at the good side. Perhaps the lower fine condition books go, the better to purchase them.

 

My question to put things to the test? Has any of you seen a dumping of Fine or lower grade silver books recently. If so, this may present an window of opportunity or bonanza for collectors to pick up these lower conditioned books at lower cost.

 

If I am completely off the mark here, let me know. I am just running the statistics and am presenting them the way they appear to me.

 

As usual, 5 stars to all those who reply wether you reply positive or negative. Simply because you stated your opinion honorably.

[DiceX]

There are very few books in Fine that I've EVER seen sell for 50% of NM.

So. It was never right to begin with.

In this case, all you've lost is 18% of what a "book value" *says* the books are worth.

When has a book value ever been correct?

[sfilosa]

 

High Grade books (VF and better) have almost always gone for over guide prices.

 

Book below VF have almost always gone for below guide prices.

 

 

The falacy that many collectors had (and that Overstreet's Annual Guide had wrong), was the belief that just because a book sold for 10% higher in NM, then last year, that all grades of that book should also be valued 10% higher.

 

Around 2000, Overstreet stated that the spread between FN (or below) and NM was widening and finally started to correct what the comic book market had known for years.

 

CGC has caused the spread to even widen further.

 

Basically on a CGC'd Silver-Age Marvel book (and this is very general) the current spead is:

 

a Very Fine book goes for about 1/6 of a NM book. That spread is about the same spread that a GOOD book had with a MINT book (back in the late 70's).

 

 

The real truth is simple: There are many more copies of books in Fine or less than High Grade copies.

 

But as I have stated in the past, from a PROFIT point of view, there are two sides of the equation.

 

1) What you paid for the book

2) What you sold the book for

 

This is REGARDLESS of GRADE.

 

 

[shiverbones]

i think its also fines stalling in price while NM soars, which is an accurate portrayal. Fine has been slipping. When i list comics ebay, things tend to lump together. There is really no price difference between fairs & goods, nor VG's & fines. its all sort of inbetween the two.

[fantastic_four]

The majority of comic stores back issues are of fine grade. In our stores, we saw the same. A lot of fine grade. The vast majority of inventories for comic stores and show dealers are Fine.

 

This captures perfectly why Fine has lost value...it's easy to find. Not as challenging. Doesn't extend the hunt for as long as VF and up does.

[Foolkiller]

Fine is absolutely available for silver and bronze age in quantity, and hence why nobody pays for it. I wouldn't buy a book in Fine or less (unless it was a key or very rare book) for more than 50% of guide. I don't think Fines are less desirable than they used to be, but the disparity in value is growing because of the increased climbing value of NM and better books. And compound the fact that most collectors are either high end collectors or low grade collectors. I don't know a lot of mid grade collectors, because it never seems to make sense. Pay a little more get a VF, pay less, get more books and get VGs. Fine specifically is a tough grade to sell.

 

 

[ninanina]

Interesting that several people have mentioned VF's as desirable and "harder" to find. As recent as 6 - 9 months ago, they were a tough sell on e-bay or even generally by the dealers. The demand was for NM and G. That's about it. Has this changed? Are we beginning to see the desirability of VF's increasing perhaps due to the hi cost of NM's? I have not been keeping track, but if anyone has - please advise....

 

 

[valiantman]

This is definitely a result of supply.

 

Fine to NM is a HUGE jump in "actual realized prices" for Silver and Bronze

due to the supply.

The fact that Fine is worth anything at all speaks to the age of the books.

 

Modern issues are basically worthless at 9.2 and lower, with very few exceptions.

Supply is plentiful, age is recent. It's always going to be a moving window

related to age.

 

Eventually, even the most common Bronze books will be old enough that Fine

will have a much stronger value. But we're probably talking decades from now.

 

I've often laughed at the "book values" for Fine. Try selling CGC 6.5 for even

the much-coveted Golden Age and you'll be lucky to get 1/3 of CGC 9.0 prices.

[blowout]

I have always considered FINE books to be valued at around a third of what NM should bring (33%) which probably ties in with your last set of figures. I, and am sure most other collectors, won't generally pay 50% for fine books. I would say that FINE comics have remained steady value wise.

The grade that has shown a drop in percentage value in recent years is VF, which now seems to generally get around 50% of guide. Personally for SA books I have always though of VF books as far better value than NM, but it seems the % spread between the grades is widening. You could certainly expect to get above 60% of NM for VF books before the advent of CGC.

Generally, I agree with the point you are making, but only in relation to VF books. I don't see any real shift in FINE and below books.

[NoImSpartacus]

Okay, from what I am gathering from all your replies is that one would basically not pay any more than 50% of NM absolute tops for a Fine unless a key or rare

AND, value is actually more in the realm of paying no more than 30% of NM for a standard common number.

 

So, from what we are saying is that the spread keeps getting wider?

 

Now, the key question would be. Do you see Fine as going lower in price and eventually becoming lumped into the VG area?

 

Wouldnt this carry with it a snowball effect on comic stores where the Fine spread gets further apart from NM and Fine prices continue to go lower while mint stabilize or goes higher.

 

Its almost like saying the store has to buy Fine books at the price of a much lower grade just to make sure they dont get hit with Fine books going lower in value.

 

I am wondering about this simply because I am wondering about the status of a simple US comic store dealing in back issues.

 

It seems like middle ground or mid grade books are a very tricky place to be !?!?!?

[blowout]

Now, the key question would be. Do you see Fine as going lower in price and eventually becoming lumped into the VG area?

 

I don't really see a lowering of pricing for FN books. What is happening, and I think will continue to happen is that true NM books are raising faster than all the other grades. The spread will remain pretty constant for POOR to VF/NM books (0 - 9.0), but NM and above books will move further away from them.

[sfilosa]

Now, the key question would be. Do you see Fine as going lower in price and eventually becoming lumped into the VG area?

 

I don't really see a lowering of pricing for FN books. What is happening, and I think will continue to happen is that true NM books are raising faster than all the other grades. The spread will remain pretty constant for POOR to VF/NM books (0 - 9.0), but NM and above books will move further away from them.

 

--------------------

'It should be easy to spot a black belt in a crowd, s/he should walk like a Marine on roller skates'

 

 

Let's clear a few things up.

 

1) Most stores do not make their money on back issues. They might have 1,000's-10,000's of back issue books in the Fine range, but that is NOT where they make their money.

 

2) The dealers who do sell Fine books, have either

a) bought the collection for pennies on the dollar

b) or made plenty of money on the high-grade issues that they sold long ago

from the collection.

 

3) If you are talking CGC, I am telling you based on my analysis that a VF will sell for aroung 1/6th of the price of a NM book. I said VF (which means FN will probably sell for 1/10th of NM market value.

 

Example ASM #50 in VF sells for around $350

ASM #50 in NM sells for over $2,220

 

But in reality, the VF book is selling for around 55% of the Overstreet NM price. It just happens that the NM book is selling for 3-4 times the Overstreet NM price.

 

 

I for one, do not believe this spread will continue to widen as many collectors are realizing that NM books are getting too expensive (especially the Key issues). Obviously, on books that you can get NM copies for less than $100, there will be a lot less demand for VF (or below copies), than a book that you have to spend $1,000 for a NM copy.

 

That doesn't necessarily mean that prices for books below VF will increase in price because I actually believe that the multiples paid for NM books will either stay flat or slightly decrease (we have already started to see this on the more COMMON High Grade Silver/Bronze/Modern books).

 

To summarize, most stores went out of business the past 10 years because, THEY COULDN'T SELL ENOUGH NEW COMICS (or other merchandise), not because their FINE back issues are going down in value (which they never really were worth what O/S Guide said in the first place).

[shiverbones]

i have seen the lumping of VG & fine time & time again in lots i list where similar issues are in VG or fine, the difference is non existant. Ebay isn't everyything, but its a good reflector of midgrades i think. I consider a true VF a high grade book, and collect them without any reservation for silver & bronze. I spend freely on correctly graded VF & VF+

[lighthouse]

So, from what we are saying is that the spread keeps getting wider?

 

Now, the key question would be. Do you see Fine as going lower in price and eventually becoming lumped into the VG area?

 

The spread between Fine and NM has been growing for at least 15 years, particularly in the last five. I do not see Fine winding up lumped with VG, but it is unlikely you will ever see Fines above 1.5X VG again...

 

Wouldnt this carry with it a snowball effect on comic stores where the Fine spread gets further apart from NM and Fine prices continue to go lower while mint stabilize or goes higher.

 

Fine prices haven't been dropping at all... Prices have been climbing, just substantially slower than NM prices.

 

Its almost like saying the store has to buy Fine books at the price of a much lower grade just to make sure they dont get hit with Fine books going lower in value.

 

I am wondering about this simply because I am wondering about the status of a simple US comic store dealing in back issues.

 

It seems like middle ground or mid grade books are a very tricky place to be !?!?!?

 

As the owner of a "simple US comic store dealing in back issues" I feel qualified to answer this question... and just so Darth has a reason to find this thread, I will make mention of the fact that my shop is a "brick-and-mortar" store...

 

Mid-grade books are the hardest to sell, and have been for at least five years. This is especially true of books that guide at $50+ in NM. Books that guide for less than that actually move rather well in Fine, as the buyers for those issues are predominantly collectors rather than investors. I can move Fine copies of Spidey 139 much easier than Fine copies of Spidey 129...

 

Fine copies of very recent back issues actually sell well at 50% of NM prices. This is largely due to the fact that the customer is paying more for the convenience of the purchase than the resale value of the book. If the book is only worth $2 anyway, a Fine copy for $1 is a fairly easy sale. The customer has no intentions of resale on the book, so $1 to have a copy to read is not that high a price to pay.

 

You'll see this most anywhere in comics when you are dealing more with collectors than investors. An example is price variant collecting. While it is true that a 9.4+ copy of a price variant will sell at extreme values, the spread between VG copies and VF copies is not that great. The VF copy is still worth more, but it may only fetch double the price, not the quadruple you see with "investment" books...

 

As for stores cautiously buying Fine copies... the percentage paid on non-highgrade random issues is so low anyway that stores don't really concern themselves with trying to work out different multiples. If I pick up a collection of assorted junk Silver Age, I'm not grading every book before I make an offer. So it's not like I am going to adjust my buy price to protect myself from the devaluation of copies in Fine...

[Foolkiller]

Let me clarify my earlier post... I wouldn't pay 50% of NM, I'd pay 50% of whatever listed guide is... which is substantially lower than 50% of NM. I've seen some people state that VF has lost some of its desirability for a grade, and I totally agree with this in terms of dollar value, but I do think that VFs and VF+s are some of the best bargains because you are getting a relatively high grade copy of a book, and if you select books that don't have defects that you are personally bothered by, then you can get some very nice books at decent prices.

 

I for one, do not believe this spread will continue to widen as many collectors are realizing that NM books are getting too expensive (especially the Key issues). Obviously, on books that you can get NM copies for less than $100, there will be a lot less demand for VF (or below copies), than a book that you have to spend $1,000 for a NM copy.

 

 

I thoroughly agree with this, and I think what the heightened demand for VF may mean is that VF prices will stabilize and you'll end up having to pay closer to guide for those books. I got to the point where owning a 9.4 copy just wasn't that important to me... if I can get one I think is graded strictly or a CGC book at a close to guide price, sure, I'll take it. But otherwise, I'm perfectly content with most 8.0s, 8.5s and 9.0s so long again, as they're graded properly. And I prefer raw, which makes it even tougher to find graded properly.

 

 

 

 

[Darthdiesel]

and just so Darth has a reason to find this thread, I will make mention of the fact that my shop is a "brick-and-mortar" store...

 

Why, I had no idea? A "brick -and -mortar" store, you say? Do go on and tell us about it...what a novel topic for discussion

[lighthouse]

and just so Darth has a reason to find this thread, I will make mention of the fact that my shop is a "brick-and-mortar" store...

 

Why, I had no idea? A "brick -and -mortar" store, you say? Do go on and tell us about it...what a novel topic for discussion

 

Now the real question is:

 

Did you find this thread randomly? Or by doing a search for "Darth"? Or is my suspicion correct and you have "mortar" as a saved search?

[Darthdiesel]

and just so Darth has a reason to find this thread, I will make mention of the fact that my shop is a "brick-and-mortar" store...

 

Why, I had no idea? A "brick -and -mortar" store, you say? Do go on and tell us about it...what a novel topic for discussion

 

Now the real question is:

 

Did you find this thread randomly? Or by doing a search for "Darth"? Or is my suspicion correct and you have "mortar" as a saved search?

 

You caught me...I'm a "lighthouse" troll and anytime you post "brick-and-mortar", I must reply...

 

actually I was just reading the thread, and sooner or later I knew you'd chime in with your unique perspective

 

From my experience - my local stores has GD - FN backstock on Golden - Bronze Age and they don't sell much because they are priced relatively higher compared to eBay where you could take the same risk and still end up paying less even if you get screwed. It does have NM - MT stock of 80's books, unfortunately they are Star, Valiant, New Universe and all the other "penny for pound" comics that you'll never recover those precious moments spent actually reading this tripe. A majority of their new weekly comics are all dinged for some reason and that is out of the box, as I've seen them open and sort them early on Wednesday. There is no point in cherry picking as some titles all are just damaged in the same way thru the 50 issue thick pile?? WTF???

 

The only books that should fetch premium prices are VF+ and higher copies of rare books (from all ages - just because it is modern, doesn't mean it CAN'T be rare). FN and below condition books are great reads and should sell for "penny per pound" prices.

 

 

[garthgantu]

I think he has "brick" as a saved search

 

I agree with most of the responses to Nolm...

Nolm, out of curiousity, where are you located?

 

I find the FINE grade to be an interesting one... in the sense that it's kind of gotten lost in the shuffle, as others have pointed out. When I talk to dealers at shops and shows, they almost universally say "I'll pay good money for high grade, and decent money for low grade (as a percentage of guide), but I generally won't pay more for FN than I do for VG, because I can't sell it for more..."

 

I think that in the long term - 15-30 years - FN will end up appreciating at a decent clip... but obviously not as quickly as books that are between VF and NM. Because I have a lot of SA and GA books in the FN/VF range, I'm hopeful that over time, a lot of these books will appreciate more rapidly, as collectors either find themselves priced out of the high grade space, and/or as many GA and SA books in high grade become harder to obtain and collectors are "reduced" to purchasing books in mid-grade to complete runs and fill out collections.

[minutekev@50]

I'm with Garth on this one. Being that all I collect is Fine-VF, I hope to God they don't depreciate. Sure, I'd love for all my old Spidey's, FF's, Neal Adams' issues, to be in NM condition but, as Garth mentioned, the facts of life for many collectors are that they have been priced out of the NM market.

I collect out of nostalgia and love for the characters. Adams' I collect because I admire the art. As long as the book is in reasonably fine condition, (no writing or tears of water damage), and the front and back cover are attractive, I have no problem adding a Very Good, Fine or Very Fine book to my collection.