Wall Street vs Comics $$$ ? 0

[Aman619]

In the late 90s, sales of expensive comics (>10Kea (which was a big ticket then)) dipped in part due to the soaring stock markets. Why buy a cool GA key for 20K and earn just the annual Overstreet 5-10% bump (on paper) -- when the same investment in Wintel would just about DOUBLE? I dont have any hard evidence of collectors making this exact decision, but remember hearing it discussed often at shows, etc.

 

So today. after runups in prices across the board, and Wall Street humming along setting records again, is money being diverted away from comics again? Or more simply, is anyone making this calculation and second-guessing new comics purchases?

 

(note: Im not taking the upcoming worldwide market crash into consideration here. Thats neither here nor there since markets soar and crash regularly...Thought Id add that so we dont get diverted into how it will all end badly. By that same measure, funny books dont look so rosy either, so its a moot point.)

[innocuous]

All the money is going into real estate. Everyone, stop buying comics and buy real estate now.

 

 

I'm diligent about "paying myself first" and have automatic investing set up for every paycheck I get. So, this situation never comes to mind for me. Comics are discretionary income. Although, now that I'm spending more on comics, resale at some point does factor into my decision.

[Monkeyman]

All my comic buying over the years has been solely for collecting. For the first time I am now thinking about buying some comics as investments (that I can put away for 10-20 years). This isn't because I feel the markets are going to crash, but because I want to diversify my assets. As I see it stocks are high (as well as correlations between markets), bonds are high (i.e. rates are low), real-estate is high (and I have a lot in my house), cash is paltry, gold is high (unless you believe that that the financial system is about to completely implode) and institutional money has been flowing into hedge funds and private equity to the point where the available opportunities aren't worth the illiquidity. I guess that we can also argue that comics are high, but volatility in the market is fairly low since prices paid tend to be a reflection of previous prices paid rather than the income generating capability of the product (like a stock).

 

Mike

[tth2]

I'm not sure it was the kind of trade-off you're describing. After all, the buoyant stock market fueled lots of conspicuous consumption which under your theory would've gone into better performing stocks. No shortage of private jets, Ferraris, etc. were being sold in the late 90s, which is also when the McMansion started coming into vogue.

 

I've always attributed the softening of comic prices in the late 90s to (i) an expected consolidation period after the explosion in GA and SA prices, especially GA prices, during the early and mid-90s and (ii) disillusionment over the amount of books that had been expensively acquired in said early and mid-90s which turned out to be restored.

 

With respect to the massive rise in prices, it's interesting to note that some of the prices paid for big ticket GAs during that period were so high that those same books probably wouldn't sell for that much more, if any, even in this post-CGC era (at least now that JP has taken a hike).

[KingOfRulers]

All the money is going into real estate. Everyone, stop buying comics and buy real estate now.

 

Yeah, I want to invest in some real estate about now. It certainly is a great time to.

 

Most of my investments are actually in comics. I have put quite a bit in the stock market also for diversity, but to be honest comics make me more money then stocks do. And they are more reliable. If you buy a quality, soild book they will not go down in value. At worst they are stagnant, while stocks can go all over the place.

[delekkerste]

So today. after runups in prices across the board, and Wall Street humming along setting records again, is money being diverted away from comics again? Or more simply, is anyone making this calculation and second-guessing new comics purchases?

 

Recent AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) surveys show that the general public is skeptical/bearish and has NOT been participating in this run up to record highs (the most comprehensive stock index - the Kansas City Value Line Arithmetic - is more than double its 2000 high, so let's not nit-pick about the Nasdaq or S&P 500).

 

I doubt much money was "diverted" from comics into stocks in the late 1990s - if anything, the wealth effect from stocks and then real estate helped spur more buying of comics (on balance). Speaking from personal experience, I can definitely say that this was true for myself. I would find it even harder to believe that money is being diverted from one to the other in today's market (although it should be and, more to the point, should have been ).

 

Gene

[Mr.Glass-migration]

I think Original Art might be a better investment than comics.

 

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/05/10/arts/melik11.php

[delekkerste]

I think Original Art might be a better investment than comics.

 

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/05/10/arts/melik11.php

 

When I see Warren Buffett investing in comics or OA, that's when I'll start "investing" in them too. In the meantime, I'll stick with stocks, bonds and real estate. Some might say that I haven't exactly fared too badly with those.

 

Investing in comic book OA? Now that's just krazy talk.

[Aman619]

Recent AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) surveys show that the general public is skeptical/bearish and has NOT been participating in this run up to record highs

Gene

 

and thats good right? Id be a bit worried if the surveys detected widespread irrational enthusiasm again. If the bull market goes up a few more thousand though, we just might see a little optimism creep back.

[Aman619]

exuberance I meant

[Aman619]

Investing in comic book OA? Now that's just krazy talk.

 

 

 

[UnrulyAppendage]

I can't bring myself into investing in comics. Maybe buying a nice book to have, yes. Over the long haul, stocks are not a huge risk. I would not count on comics as a retirement plan.

[Aweandlorder]

On 5/15/2007 at 5:14 PM, UnrulyAppendage said:

I can't bring myself into investing in comics. Maybe buying a nice book to have, yes. Over the long haul, stocks are not a huge risk. I would not count on comics as a retirement plan.

Well, looks like alot has changed in the past 10 years 

[ARCHIVED COLLECTIBLES]

If you go back to 2009/2010 you will find that most slabbed keys in higher grade spanning different eras are trading at incredible multiples present day vs. back then. It is relative.

You could reasonably make the argument that buying say JP Morgan stock now for $92 something a share vs. $20 a share only 7 or 8 years ago is no more or less appealing than buying a slabbed AF 15 today in the same time frame. 

 

Edited August 3, 2017 by ARCHIVED COLLECTIBLES

[thehumantorch]

On 5/15/2007 at 10:53 AM, delekkerste said:

 

When I see Warren Buffett investing in comics or OA, that's when I'll start "investing" in them too. In the meantime, I'll stick with stocks, bonds and real estate. Some might say that I haven't exactly fared too badly with those.

 

Investing in comic book OA? Now that's just krazy talk.

I've been investing in stocks for 30 years.  Beyond my company pension and home that's my retirement.  My rate of return so far is 17% compounded annually.

I've been buying comics for 40 years.  Beyond hookers and blow and cotton candy that's my joy.  I don't know what my rate of return is but they've generally gone up

If anyone wants to invest in comics that's fine but please invest in traditional investments, start when you're young and keep doing it.

[Black_Adam]

I think I read somewhere once that collectibles do have a place in a portfolio (say 5 - 7%). Which means if you are fortunate enough to have 100k saved you shouldn't have any more than 7k "invested" in comics. If your collection takes off in value, sell some and rebalance that money into the rest of your portfolio. If, on the other hand, your comic collection is your retirement portfolio...well, let's hope you loaded up on keys and not cases of Bloodstrike: Rub the Blood #1.

[Aweandlorder]

I have no problem investing thousands in comics. I've started with 25$ some 5-6 years ago and my collections value is currently at close to 100k (That's besides my original childhood collection) The only worry I have is about a major correction. 

But that's a worry anyone will have with any market

[Bookery]

The problem with these periodic discussions is that the comic investors always play with disingenuous statistics.  The typical comparison is made along the lines of "in the last 10 years the stock market has doubled in value... but look... AF 15 has gone up 10x in that time!".  The stock market in its entirety is compared with the best of the best in terms of comic book appreciation.  A more apt comparison would be to compare the rise in Apple stock with the rise in AF 15.  There is no way to classify how comic books "as a whole" have fared.  But the vast vast majority of comics from 1975-on can be found in $1 discount boxes (or even less)... adjusted to inflation, or the fact that a current new issue sells for $3.99... that's a massive loss in valuation.  The graphic novel back-issue market is all but dead... we have 1500 gns marked down 70% or more below issue (these are new, not used) and still little interest.  Western comics, humor, movie tie-ins, classics, and even lesser known hero books such as Super Magician, sell today for far less than they did 10 or even 20 years ago, esp. with inflation adjustments.  A million years ago I worked for Merrill Lynch, so I know how risky stock investments can be.  But even then... one can study a company's finances, make an assessment about their product and management, and invest accordingly.  With a few practical exceptions, the appreciation of individual comic issues is just dumb luck.  Nobody would have predicted years ago that New Mutants 98 would ever be anything but a $1-bin book.  No one would have gone out of their way to invest heavily in Batman Adventures 12, featuring a new goofy cartoon-based villain.  Check GPA on once stalwart titles like Showcase... except for a few keys, most copies in average grades market at well below OPG values.  Comics are certainly more fun for most of us than buying stocks, and can be enjoyed for far more than their resale value.  But to say they, as a whole, have proved to be a great investment is likely untrue.

The one advantage comics DO have, is that a well-informed savvy buyer can seek out hot issues tucked in discount boxes, or backboard bargains when a dealer has overlooked current trends (and nobody can keep up on everything).  With stocks, you can't just buy a company at half current market.

[ComicConnoisseur]

I will make an observation here. I notice that comic books that have risen in value quite a bit over the years was because they have or had some kind of hollywood tie-in like a movie or tv show to promote them in the past, the present or the future.

In other words if the comic book didn't have some connections with a tv show or movie in the past,present or future it usually can be found in the back issue bins stagnating.

So the Hollywood connection is making certain keys more valuable over the years, and for the ones that they will make valuable in the future.

So in conclusion without the Hollywood connection from the past, the present or future the majority of comic books don't even come close to Wall Street stocks as a investment.

 

Edited August 4, 2017 by ComicConnoisseur

[the blob]

On 5/15/2007 at 0:42 PM, delekkerste said:

 

Recent AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) surveys show that the general public is skeptical/bearish and has NOT been participating in this run up to record highs (the most comprehensive stock index - the Kansas City Value Line Arithmetic - is more than double its 2000 high, so let's not nit-pick about the Nasdaq or S&P 500).

 

I doubt much money was "diverted" from comics into stocks in the late 1990s - if anything, the wealth effect from stocks and then real estate helped spur more buying of comics (on balance). Speaking from personal experience, I can definitely say that this was true for myself. I would find it even harder to believe that money is being diverted from one to the other in today's market (although it should be and, more to the point, should have been ).

 

Gene

To the extent the general public has 401Ks that are on autopilot buying index funds, they are, but that probably doesnt drive the run up as it is steady