What Crash ?- Today's 9.0 was last year's 8.0!!

[homer-migration]

You know I read Blazingbob's tirade on this Boards doom and gloom scenerio - and for once I agree.....What crash? Oh no Origin 1 CGC 9.8, selling for a couple hundred plus a few months ago is being passed by at $69 BIN - 9.2 ASM 67 is not fetching $150 - and ASM 14 (9.0) only brought $2000. So I ask you, which of these is an outstanding book? Let's face it, in today's market a 9.0 Silver-Age to Modern Age, is last year's 8.0. It's no wonder a 9.0 is bringing what an 8.0 brought last year - The success of CGC has made the comic buying world only too acutely aware of how much is out there. Care to bet a 9.2 this time next year will be bringing what an 8.5-9.0 brings today? We're collecting mass produced stuff people!

 

9.6-9.8 Keys -Rock solid 9.4 Keys- Almost As 9.2- Keys Shakey

 

9.0 Keys - Market Uneasy

 

9.6-9.8 Early Issues Major Titles - Rock Solid 9.4 Early Issues Major Titles - Almost As 9.2 - Shakey 9.0 - Uneasy

 

9.6-9.8 Later Non-Key Issues Major Titles - Above Guide Still 9.4 and lower - Forget it!

 

 

[wolfling40-migration]

I think that this is similar to what I said elsewhere: Eventually most everything in 9.6 to 9.8 will be worth top dollar -- everything below these grades will just not be good enough and will poor sellers.

[murph0]

A lot of stuff prior to CGC sold for a decent amount of money...there's no reason to say that all this stuff below 9.6 will continue to decline..I can agree that VF 8.0 to maybe VF+ 8.5 and below will have no premium whatsoever but to say that high grade books will continue to dip just isn't right. If you look at what Comic-keys was getting pre-CGC for what people were considering as "solid NM 9.4's", you'll see that multiples or at least a decent price are almost always paid on a nice solid book in the 9.0-9.4 range. Prices may dip below CGC levels but that isn't all bad, it just means prices are coming down to possibly their true market value, it in no way means these books are suddenly devalued and will just continue to drop.

 

Brian

[delekkerste]

You know I read Blazingbob's tirade on this Boards doom and gloom scenerio

- and for once I agree.....What crash?

 

Let me start off by saying that there has not yet been a crash in Silver Age. A

softening of prices, yes, but not a crash - yet. In any case...

 

Denial is apparently not just a river in Egypt...I have a whole database of CGC

auction results and there are tons of books that have plunged in value recently,

and I'm not just talking about Origin 1 9.8s. To deny this is ludicrous -

even the bulls and optimists are now freely conceding that prices are severely

depressed. The difference is that they think prices will rebound and I don't.

But to deny that prices are falling sharply, especially when your "Silver

Age to Modern Age" timeframe includes the Bronze Age & Modern Age,

which are getting totally obliterated with each passing day, is a distortion

of Orwellian proportions.

 

9.6-9.8 Keys -Rock solid

 

True - Movie Hype and Major Keys in 9.6 and 9.8 have not fallen much in price for

many books. Some are even hitting new highs. On any given day, there are

stocks that hit new highs, even if the overall market is cratering to new lows. Why

should the CGC market be any different? But, eventually The Bear mauls all

sectors of the market, even those which previously held up admirably.

 

It would be foolish to assume that all 9.6s and 9.8s will be "rock solid" in the

future...already you are seeing substantial price declines for some keys and many

semi-keys and non-keys, at least for Bronze and Modern Age (there aren't many

9.8 SAs around, so any discussion of 9.6s & 9.8s has to revolve around Bronze

and Modern Age comics).

 

Gene

[murph0]

Even at current prices, nothing is rock solid..if stuff slides some more..I could see ASM 9.4's in the 60-90 range being a "rock solid" buy anywhere from 100-150 dollars, which is perfectly fine. If/when the book goes to the price it doesn't mean the book is suddenly it just means prices are readjusting.

 

Brian

[awe4one]

This brings up the question........

 

If NM CGC issues approach the level of Overstreet NM numbers, then CGC strictness has in fact had an effect on grading and many collections (previously deemed--and purchased--as high grade NM) will go down in value per Rozanski's prediction.

 

Also, if CGC comics in NM start fetching Overstreet NM prices, then now a comic has to be slabbed to get NM value?

 

I don't see this as a positive thing for the hobby.......

 

 

Jim

[comicinvestor-migration]

Let's face it, in today's market a 9.0 Silver-Age to Modern Age, is last year's 8.0. It's no wonder a 9.0 is bringing what an 8.0 brought last year - The success of CGC has made the comic buying world only too acutely aware of how much is out there. Care to bet a 9.2 this time next year will be bringing what an 8.5-9.0 brings today?

 

And do you ever ask yourself WHY this is happening? You seem to think it's some bizarre Circle of Life for the comic's market, and f you had any experience in other graded markets, you could see it for what it is: speculators trying to escape the inevitable crash by going as high on the grade scale as possible.

 

I posted a little "Speculating in the CGC Market is Like Climbing a Tree to Escape a Bear" analogy awhile back, and it's absolutely true. The Bear (declining prices) comes for you, you jump into the Tree (CGC grading scale) and climb higher and higher, hoping to escape its clutches. It keeps after you, and you go even higher, not worrying if the branches gets thinner and less able to hold your weight (greater investment = higher risk). There is a physical limit to how high you can climb, yet the bear keeps coming, and gets closer... and closer... and closer.....

 

And just like in real life, you'll usually get eaten, mauled, or fall out of the tree.

 

And you may be asking how I would escape the raging bear? By not going near him in the first place, and therefore not having to climb a tree just to save my .

[blazingbob]

Not picking on CI, just putting a reply to the general topic. Why is the market soft. Gee, let's see, Heritage has dumped $8 million dollars of product into the market in less than 6 months. Another $5 million is coming and I'm sad to say more is on the way though I question where it is all coming from. There is Gold as well as Silver and probably some Movie Posters thrown in for good measure. You want to [!@#%^&^], ask why Heritage doesn't give one about the market, they sell books, they make money, they don't sell books and you didn't sign away the buyback clause, they make money. I've spoken to some consigners who weren't very happy with the bids they got on their books and quite frankly won't consign again. You consign to get "top" dollar, that's what you pay them for. I'm still waiting to see those "new" customers coming into the market that Heritage keeps touting on their scoreboard. I would probably venture to say that over 50% of that "number" are existing customers.

 

To the 9.0 - 9.2 statements I've seen. Marvel collectors tend to be the pickiest collectors to satisfy. I have seen a lot of killer 9.0's and 9.2's. I have made my market in those 2 grades for over 10 years. The 9.4 or better collector tends to be the more "difficult" of the bunch selling ungraded books to since they will pore over every dot of the book. Breathe on it and it's a 9.2. Touch it with your hand and you've left a fingerprint. God, If I had to live selling 9.4's to collectors I would BE OUT OF BUSINESS. 9.4 Silver age 1962-1965 is NOT common, Marvel or DC.

 

Spiderman is the most popular title, the rapid escalation of prices caused people to sell, thus more books were put into the marketplace. I'm still waiting for the FF Run from 1-50 to be auctioned off, JIM #83-100, TOS #39-58. Where are they? Why don't they show up on Ebay like Byrne X-Men?

 

AS #14 9.0 is still a great book, it's a 2nd tier key and I was just called last night asking if I had one. I don't have any and would love to get one at a "good" price. And no, my "good" price is not 1/2 guide.

 

If you want to know where the market is going look no further than the fat heritage catalogs and ask why they are "dumping" so much product into the market. Why would they care, they don't carry any inventory since it all comes from you, the collector. Don't like the price you got, too late. Didn't get the reserve you wanted, too bad, pay us 15% unless you got it waived or worse yet, Lower your reserve. Whore the book until it becomes unsellable. Many of you like to see a book that's "New", not the same old copy offered up for sale time and time again. How many of you have complained about Neat Stuff Collectibles auctioning the same material over and over again.

 

Sorry for the long windy post

[delekkerste]

Why is the market soft. Gee, let's see, Heritage has dumped $8 million dollars

of product into the market in less than 6 months. Another $5 million is coming and

I'm sad to say more is on the way

 

So where is the silver lining in this? More supply is coming that will keep the market

soft. Great. And why is there more supply coming? Could it be that people are

ringing the register while there's still money to be had? Dealers & collectors do

consign books to Heritage, right? So what does that tell you?

 

I'm not buying the "if it wasn't for Heritage's greed, the market would not be soft"

argument. It might be less soft than a baby's @$$, but I assure you it wouldn't

be like grade 10 sandpaper.

 

Gene

[delekkerste]

And just like in real life, you'll usually get eaten, mauled, or fall out of the

tree.

 

So obvious, CI, and yet these simple, incisive comments are met with anger

and denial by the bulls. You would think that after losing their shirts in so

many market busts the past two decades, including the stock market bubble

which should be fresh in most people's minds, that people might actually

learn from their past mistakes. The parallels with previous busts, including

other graded collectibles, as you have argued, is so freaking obvious that

it is exasperating to hear the cries of denial.

 

It seems as though you have posted less on the matter lately...I guess you

realized the futility of educating "dumb money" before I did...

 

Gene

[comicinvestor-migration]

It seems as though you have posted less on the matter lately...I guess you realized the futility of educating "dumb money" before I did...

 

Actually, some bozos have ticked me off enough, that I welcome them spending more and more money on Guide multiple CGC books, so I can really twist the knife when judgement day rolls around.

 

Not very nice I'll admit, but these guys bring to mind those "3 Evils" monkeys covering their ears, eyes and mouth, and I have never liked monkeys.

[homer-migration]

Actually, some bozos have ticked me off enough, that I welcome them spending more and more money on Guide multiple CGC books, so I can really twist the knife when judgement day rolls around.

 

ComicInvestor - I'm somebody who read posts for quite some time before getting my feet wet - Your ID on this Board, it seems to me belies most of your posts. You made an analogy not too long ago that a 'home entertainment system' was more important to your quality of life than a few comics.You spend a great deal of time being negative about the idea of comic investing, with specific deriding of those who pay what you deem as high prices for books they really want. With all due respect, and this post is meant more as a quiery, rather than something negative, have you chosen an appropriate ID?

 

I spent probably what you would consider an obscene amount in the recent Heritage Sale - Why? - Because I, like everyone else though there were some bargains to be had, but more importantly I had the opportunity to buy some books I really wanted at prices I could afford - I get an infinite amount of pleasure at holding the few copies I have and knowing that they are probably the best condition issues in the world of that title - that I probably have the best copy of one of my favorite books - this is my entertainment system. Naturally it is nice to know that when you spend alot of money on something, that it will be almost all there, and liquid should you ever decide to sell - But it is not my major concern - I am, primarily a Collector - As a realistic collector, although I have opinions, I realize that my opinions might not be any more valid than someone elses' . But I can say, without a shadow of a doubt, that in 5 years time, my comic has a better chance of not depreciating than your home entertainment system.

 

[comicinvestor-migration]

But I can say, without a shadow of a doubt, that in 5 years time, my comic has a better chance of not depreciating than your home entertainment system.

 

Congratulations for that incisive comment. In the meantime, my family, friends and acquaintances will have watched thousands of movies, sporting events, family videos and TV shows on my purchase, and the last time I invited people to come over and look at my comic collection, no one showed up.

 

Don't get me wrong, I love collecting comics, but there is a limit to what I'll spend. I have many other interests and would rather spend big bucks on things like a bigger house, sportscar, home AV equipment, computer hardware, etc. than something that basically does nothing, and virtually no one I hang with cares a rat's about.

 

And you had me thinking you were actually a collector before the last statement, where you true colors shone through. You may think you have a grasp on future comic prices, but you may be in for a real surprise.

 

Anyone who is seriously investing in comic books in 2002 has little grasp of history, demographics or understands how changing youth trends can absolutely annihilate a collectibles market. Here's one universal constant you should think about, and try and understand why it is a truth beyond reproach:

 

What is highly collectible today WILL NOT be what is highly collectible with the next generation of adults.

 

You can take that to the bank, 100% iron-clad guaranteed. That doesn't mean I'll never buy another comic, but it does mean that I'll be very careful with my money, as I expect super-hero comics to follow the sci-fi pulps, western comics and other "era specific" collectibles down the path to oblivion.

[drbanner]

Let the record show that I AM NOT homer. D'oh!

[aardvark88]

The mantra continue to be buy want u can afford. Collect what u enjoy now. Being a contrarian & buying lots of raw vg reading copies may not net u a bucket of cash when u liquidate, but at least u had fun (gulp) actually reading your funny bks.

[comicinvestor-migration]

Tell me about it, I recently got in a big run of early Defenders in varying conditions. The really nice ones (and there were some prime issues) I stored away, but the rest went on the stack and I even took a few out to read this week.

 

Maybe I'll have a real hoot this weekend and cut out the Marvel Value Stamps of the VG-to-F issues, since that was a bit before my time.

[Guest]

CI, in trying to compare THIS market to others that have experienced bumps and spikes (as ALL markets undergo), most are just not choosing the correct model. The correct model for comparison, is a market that was drastically spiked through the efforts of ONE individual. Three other models come immediately to mind.

 

1)SILVER (not the comics...the element itself)

2)Championship rings

3)Lionel Trains (not the re-issues)

 

In each of these hobby or investments marketplaces, the spending habits of ONE very wealthy individual CREATED the demand, and dictated/suggested the pattern that others followed into.

 

The Silver market needs no explanation. At one time, the price of Silver actually rivaled Gold, due to the efforts of the Hunts. Where is it now?

The other two marketplaces also experienced the same phenomena as Silver, much in the same manner, the result of one wealthy individual buying EVERYTHING any auction house and dealer had available at ANY asking price (although JP was more discriminating in his purchases, and had more willing sellers).

The fellow buying up the Lionels, even eventually buying the company Lionel, itself! Even more amazing was that included in the archives of Lionel were almost ALL of the original blueprints, tools, and dies necessary to REMANUFACTURE the trains to original specs!!!! (as if JP bought Marvel and Marvel STILL retained all the plates and original machinery to produce comics exactly as they were in the 60s!!!!!!!). What do you think happened to the prices of Vintage Lionels when THIS started occurring??? And, who's buying Silver at $800 per oz. now?

C.I., many who disagree with you on the subject of artificially spiked markets are NOT choosing the correct model for debating.

[Guest]

And, who's buying Silver at $800 per oz. now?

 

Somebody in the financial biz could probably tell you the exact amount (I'm a buyer for a retailer), but I would betcha $800 that Silver never came close to $800 per oz. I think it topped out around $50 or $60 (still 10-15 times higher than today's price) in the early 1980s. I remember this because my idiotic parents were "investing" in MOrgan Silver Dollars at the time. Yeah, smooooth move, Pops. But then again, our kids will probably be saying the same thing in the year 2020. COmic books? Yeah, smooooth move, old man. Now I gotta work 3 jobs to pay my tuition bill, .

 

peace out,

Tink

[comicinvestor-migration]

I remember this because my idiotic parents were "investing" in MOrgan Silver Dollars at the time. Yeah, smooooth move, Pops. But then again, our kids will probably be saying the same thing in the year 2020. COmic books? Yeah, smooooth move, old man. Now I gotta work 3 jobs to pay my tuition bill, .

 

In these few sentences is contained the wisdom of several generations. I hope more than a few of you will read this and ponder its inner meaning.

 

Times change, people change, demographics change, and what's hot now, just by virtue of that fact alone, has absolutely no chance of being hot in the future.

 

And you can take that to the bank.

[homer-migration]

ComicInvestor - You'e too deep for me I'm afraid, even though you are considerably younger:.... if "Defenders were before your time" - I am amused however that you assume you can school me on the ups and downs of the collectibles markets, not having any idea who I am or exactly what experience I possess. But I guess Blazing was correct in his scurrilous post on this Board a few nights back on the predilection of most members here to compare the state of the market on less than 'brilliant' books - the problem I seem to be having with you is Blazing Bob's point that our idea of 'quality' is in two different realms......Depression and Carnival Glass is different to Tiffany and Steuben....... As far as your friends enjoying your entertainment system rather than your comic collection, I think it has more to do with your friends than mine. If I had some of my friends over and stuck on the entertainment suystem, they would undoubtably think me very rude... I think you should chage your user ID adding the prefex "I Don't Want To Be A _________ _________