Do you think Hulk #181 is currently overvalued?

[greggy]

Who's on the cover?

[THE_BEYONDER]

Supes is punching through a "phantom".

[greggy]

Supes is punching through a "phantom".

Sigh....for some reason, greggy's missing that issue! I guess I have to find one for myself and flaunt it in front of your face?

[THE_BEYONDER]

How about a Superman 320? ( Solomon Grundy is trying to steal Superman's cape on the cover....)

[greggy]

How about a Superman 320? ( Solomon Grundy is trying to steal Superman's cape on the cover....)

Probably not, as I don't use collect in that range. Will check later on or perhaps you can PM me a list?

[greggy]

 

This one must be it!

[BronzeBruce13]

COOL!

 

<---Greggy

 

so it was Kidflash not Reverse Flash.

it figures I would remember a surreal looking cover like that as 8-10 year old.

 

Now if "they" got lucky with WW who exactly would be feelin' good there???

 

2 legs... you'd think one arse/2 cheeks..right? looks like 3-4 cheeks goin' on there... freaky! Methinks the cover artist may have discovered 'shrooms around that time?

 

 

[THE_BEYONDER]

Here's my DC want list....

 

• Detective Comics 451
• JLA 120
• Adventure Comics starring Aquaman 451
• House of Mystery 231
• Superman 311

 

 

[greggy]

Mmmm.... Giordano was high when he drew that?

[awe4one]

Now I didn't have to offer that at all and give you even a little something to jump on to support your remarks, but in all fairness I'd rather give out an accurate accounting of what I know, even if it doesn't help my position. The fact that the best of this small HG stash yielded very average results is an indication that even a multiple copy find may not end up being all that (certainly not guranteed 9.6/9.8's). A 9.8 still remains a very difficult grade to acquire whether it be one lovingly handled copy or a small stack of 10 grabbed of the racks.

 

I think focusing on 9.8 is a little off the mark. I hear ya concerning some collectors will only want the best. That will always be the case but..... The rise in 9.4/9.6 graded issues will eventually drive the price down on these issues and eventually drive the price down on 9.8 copies. I think collectors are beginning to see that there's not a hell of a lot of difference between 9.4/9.6/9.8 comics. They will gravitate to buying the lower grade and save a substantial chunk of change. This wll drive the price on 9.8s down in my opinion.

 

On a related note....put me in the crowd saying there's much more HG 181s out there. I don't buy the reasoning that all HG copies have probably already been slabbed. Collectors not wanting to sell have no reason to grade their copies and pay the slabbing fee. Especially on a comic as high valued as 181. Why pay the slabbing fee when you can get a decent amount of comics with the same money? Doesn't make sense.....

 

And since I've never started a poll.....I'm curious.....

 

 

 

 

Jim

 

[Kermit]

I wish i had one...i've been hunting it down for some time, but those prices...no way.

[BronzeBruce13]

Holy !!! I didn't notice that there are now FIVE 9.8s in the Census. Jeez, pretty soon there'll be enough for everybody!

 

============

 

This pattern suggests that the rumors may be true; there are some serious Hulk 181 hoardes out there, and these are slowly leaking into the CGC market, but not in a lump amount that would send off alarm bells.

 

The fact that stacks of HG copies exist is no secret, but it's pretty apparent that these are now a factor, and that copies are consistently siphoned off towards a CGC graded sale. Over the next few years, I expect the census numbers to continue growing.

 

 

Hey Jim,

 

Actually, I don't think so as I was responding to the specific comments above that I take for an explanation as to why "9.8" numbers rose recently.

 

Although the first statement (1st sentence) is a "theory" that seems reasonable... it was clearly offered as pure speculation and was not based on any fact.

 

His second statement (2nd sentence) however, came across as a factual explanation. Whether addressing 9.8's exclusively or HG copies in general, I don't believe he has any facts to support that.

 

Vince went from theory to factual explanation too quickly and I simply knew better in regards to the 9.8 copies history and wanted to set the record straight.

 

 

You make a logical point about high grade copies in general... particularly 9.0-9.4, (and even 9.6, but to a lesser extent IMO). If you'll read a little further from my remarks you commented on, you'll see that I acknowledged that point in conversation with Lee (blowout) with no problem.

 

In short, I expect HG copies to continue to rise as well... as I mentioned here when Lee made a similar statement to yours...

 

Agreed... no question really. As should all keys produced when grabbing extra copies became more commonplace.

 

I think this is the real point in reference to some of your post is this...

 

Whether or not they surface in such numbers to meet/overtake demand is the real question that remains to be seen.

 

===============

 

As to your feelings here...

 

The rise in 9.4/9.6 graded issues will eventually drive the price down on these issues and eventually drive the price down on 9.8 copies. I think collectors are beginning to see that there's not a hell of a lot of difference between 9.4/9.6/9.8 comics. They will gravitate to buying the lower grade and save a substantial chunk of change. This will drive the price on 9.8s down in my opinion.

 

My take is this... I agree that there is little doubt any longer that there will continue to be steady rises in 9.4 numbers and below. Even in 9.6 I'd think, but to a lesser extent compared to grades below. In terms of how value may be affected (in any grade) it clearly has to do with whether or not the numbers reach a point where they meet/overtake demand... and that remains to be seen. There are many variables to consider as I mentioned in my first post in this thread.

 

Keep in mind on this specific book.. nearly EVERYONE has been WRONG thus far (even "experts" and those that feel they had a pretty good handle on where the book was heading...including myself, Vince and other forum members). Going back a year or more... in my gut, I thought $3500ish was gong to be the absolute ceiling for the best 9.6's for the near future and I felt pretty sure about that. Here we are now though... well past whatever additional movie hype that may have affected values... with even higher 9.6 census numbers and more than a few sales (both eBay and private/websites) that hover around the $4.5K-5.1K range!

(and yes, I know and believe one was shilled)

 

This book in particular has defied all logic for an extended stretch of time. Although we are ALL tired of taking about it by now..its too damn high profile... I'm just not prepared to declare its future just yet. I honestly CAN'T see how it will go up, nor can I see how it will remain IMMUNE to an adjustment (like other books experience given the same set of variables)... but I was wrong before a couple of times... we all were.

 

Of course, it may be suggested that this is not my "real opinion" and that I will say whatever I can to protect my own HG copy's value... as if everyone out there hangs on my every word about how to spend their cash and that I can control the CGC market with my evaluations.

 

I'd rather just watch now instead of decide upon a firm prediction on value going forward. Who the hell really knows... anyone have it right so far?

 

"Every time I try to get away from talking about Hulk 181, they pull me back in! (insert Al Pacino graemlin here)

 

 

============

 

The Poll idea is cool, BUT for those that choose the last option... no disrespect, but I've heard that before (in regards to "how" HG a copy people "think" they have) and also find "fear of HG market collapse" as a reason not to reveal they may have a projected 9.4/9.6 copy is an unrealistic fear (they just did). It MAY be just as likely that they could be apprehensive to discover the actual CGC grade their projected HG copy will get?

[joe_collector]

I know the FACTS however, and can inform you with all certainty that the last (3) 181's that were graded 9.8 were NOT from any such stash/hoard, nor leaked slowly into the market.

 

Actually Bruce, these comments make the scenario even scarier, as the hoardes of Hulk 181 are still sitting in storage or massed with some rich collector.

 

And before you scoff at this, dealers and collectors were scarfing up this book since GS X-Men #1 was released (that notation on Wolvie's first appearance was a real highlight tag) and the fact that these new 9.8-9.6 subs are individual books from non-haorde collections is certainly not good news.

[joe_collector]

So I would be very surprised if too many more 9.8's appear from any of the BA key stashes. I do expect the 9.4/9.6 numbers to continue to rise steadily though.

 

Of course, as the difference between CGC 9.6 and 9.8 is virtually non-existent in many books and can be internally controlled to prop up prices. This is done in the sportscard and coin grading market, and is just good business.

[joe_collector]

As to Hulk 181, I've honestly witnessed a short box (75-100 copies??) years ago with what looked like all 7.5's to a few 9.4's. I've seen stacks but I could never say stacks above 9.4.

 

Join the club, and as for the high-grades, I can say with certainty that the Hulk 181 census numbers from CGC 9.6 down will jump significantly in the coming years. The 9.8 and up are all kind of a game anyway, so who knows how many CGC will let out the door?

[delekkerste]

Keep in mind on this specific book.. nearly EVERYONE has been WRONG thus far (even "experts" and those that feel they had a pretty good handle on where the book was heading...including myself, Vince and other forum members). Going back a year or more... in my gut, I thought $3500ish was gong to be the absolute ceiling for the best 9.6's for the near future and I felt pretty sure about that. Here we are now though... well past whatever additional movie hype that may have affected values... with even higher 9.6 census numbers and more than a few sales (both eBay and private/websites) that hover around the $4.5K-5.1K range!

 

Funny...if you replaced "Hulk #181" with "Nasdaq Composite", "$3500" with "3500 points", and "$4.5K-$5.1K range" with "4500 to 5100 point range", you'd be back in 2000 on the cusp of a total meltdown.

 

Just a thought.

 

Gene

[joe_collector]

Keep in mind on this specific book.. nearly EVERYONE has been WRONG thus far

 

The important two words in this statement are the last ones.

[BronzeBruce13]

I know the FACTS however, and can inform you with all certainty that the last (3) 181's that were graded 9.8 were NOT from any such stash/hoard, nor leaked slowly into the market.

 

Actually Bruce, these comments make the scenario even scarier, as the hoardes of Hulk 181 are still sitting in storage or massed with some rich collector.

 

And before you scoff at this, dealers and collectors were scarfing up this book since GS X-Men #1 was released (that notation on Wolvie's first appearance was a real highlight tag) and the fact that these new 9.8-9.6 subs are individual books from non-haorde collections is certainly not good news.

 

 

Maybe Vince... but you were wrong in your speculation in this case, so I wanted to set the record straight.

 

I'm not "scoffing" about the possibility at all. I think perhaps your "theory" may overstated however. I was not of the age to be aware what collectors were doing in '74... so I'll accept some of what you're saying... to a point. I've spoke to enough people I respect in the hobby on this topic and by and large I have not heard any with the same opinion as yours... at least to the degree you suggest.

 

If you read my entire post (and I know you don't always as you miss or don't comment on portions that i figure you would) you'll notice that I brought up an example that supported your theory. I AM aware that there was at one point a small stash (not the hundreds upon hundreds size you seem to allude to) of Hulk 181's that were sitting in a HG collectors house and were brought to market. Even though the collector was a noted "picky" type the results of the submission were disappointing.

 

Point is, as I said, sure there must be more out there... but even if/when they will eventually be brought to market, there's no guarantee that they will get the kind of grades that will deliver a crushing blow to Hulk 181 overall... that's all. I think the best copies will continue to come from "single-owner", non-horde collections that were carefully handled and stored... BUT that's only my speculation.

 

If you know any concrete facts about a large stash, just say so. I doubt you'd mention that possibility at all if you indeed were protecting "friends" or were sworn to secrecy. Your continued expression of your view in a public manner, sometimes sounding factual, would be counter-productive to hiding the presence of the stash in the first place.

 

I haven't studied your buying/selling, nor do I know "who you knew back in the day", but with no disrespect intended... I'm not currently of the impression that you are very active, nor well connected in the high grade market to have a good idea of what's really going on? Is this assumption unfair or do you know something you'd like to share?

[BronzeBruce13]

[... the difference between CGC 9.6 and 9.8 is virtually non-existent in many books and can be internally controlled to prop up prices. This is done in the sportscard and coin grading market, and is just good business.

 

Conspiracy Speculation?... How do you know this as fact in the sportscard and coin grading market firstly? I don't pretend to know a thing about those markets... enlighten me.

 

Secondly, that's a rather harsh thing to suggest about CGC knowing the graders have solid reps. I'm aware that I may be a little too trusting in general, but I just don't believe there is a conscious effort to control census numbers personally.

[BronzeBruce13]

Keep in mind on this specific book.. nearly EVERYONE has been WRONG thus far (even "experts" and those that feel they had a pretty good handle on where the book was heading...including myself, Vince and other forum members). Going back a year or more... in my gut, I thought $3500ish was gong to be the absolute ceiling for the best 9.6's for the near future and I felt pretty sure about that. Here we are now though... well past whatever additional movie hype that may have affected values... with even higher 9.6 census numbers and more than a few sales (both eBay and private/websites) that hover around the $4.5K-5.1K range!

 

Funny...if you replaced "Hulk #181" with "Nasdaq Composite", "$3500" with "3500 points", and "$4.5K-$5.1K range" with "4500 to 5100 point range", you'd be back in 2000 on the cusp of a total meltdown.

 

Just a thought.

 

Gene

 

Gene, my friend.. If your Uncle had Boobs, he'd be your Aunt!

 

Apples...Oranges

 

 

ALSO...please stop making comparisons to Nasdaq... I really don't want to receive anymore anonymous scathing emails ripping your sphincter regarding stock-market/comic-market parallels... I'll tell you more later