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Lothran

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Posts posted by Lothran

  1. On 2/1/2023 at 1:28 PM, Skippeydoo said:

    I've given up trying to figure out how they decided who's got signed and for what signing. My box sat in their warehouse almost 2 months before it got checked in. But I know via friends and message boards that there are people whose box got to CGC at least a week or two after mine, that got checked in before mine ,and are already done and back to them. So guess maybe they're going by when books got checked in on you submission tracking deal. Oh well, the books I sent to get signed were for my personal collection so not like I'm losing out on any value cause I'm not planning on selling them anytime soon. 

    They lost my 9.0 ASM 300 so.... it could be worse.

  2. On 1/3/2023 at 12:16 PM, ADAMANTIUM said:

    Welcome to the Boards! Yes "a" McFarlane signing happened in December, but he didn't make it through all the books and is coming to finish them up, Lord willing, in January.

    Hang in there, it still might be a minute, but they're working on it :cheers: 

    I was told by a CGC rep that he signed books on January 17th. Not sure if there are still unsigned books and a third signing is going to happen, but that's what was relayed to me.

  3. Hello,

    I had a few comics sent to CGC for the McFarlane signing. (order 4169862)

    The item on line 3, an ASM 300, was sent in as a slabbed blue label. (4054660002) Up until the last day or so, I was still able to pull up the slab number on the website. Now it does not pull anything up. Again, this only happened in the last day or two.

    The comics I submitted were signed and graded and were about to be shipped out when I noticed that the ASM 300 now has a B-1 classification for restoration.

    No one can explain how that happened or any details other than "someone will call you".

    Someone was supposed to call me last Thursday (1/26/23), but I haven't heard from anyone.

    I believe CGC mixed up my comic with someone else's as there is no way a blue label slabbed comic will come back with a restoration designation, which will significantly lower the value of the comic.

     

    Can anyone provide any updates or insight on what is going on please?

  4. On 12/14/2022 at 9:08 PM, Nick Furious said:

    You are correct, 2021 was an anomaly.  Anyone who doesn't believe this should maybe give an example of what they think an anomaly year would look like.  

    I don't think anyone is arguing that it wasn't. However, I don't believe this is a one off event that "You will never see that again in your lifetime".

    There are a number of different factors that lead me to believe this is part of the cycle and 2021 was breaking resistance.

    The main factor that leads me to believe this will repeat is the market valuation with a CAGR of around 10%, based on 2012 to current valuations, which would put the US comic market at around $2,774,000,00-ish in 2024 from the current valuation of approximately, 2,286,000,000. (approximate as 2022 numbers have not been released yet) (Feel free to check the math and correct me if I made any miscalculations)

    Now, that's just anticipated market growth without factoring in any outside factors, such as HBO developing a continuous DC Universe across it's movies/tv series/animated series, Disney or Sony developing their movies, games, series or any actions taken by the Fed to mitigate inflation and a recession, such as QE or rate hikes.

    Obviously, this is pure speculation based on current numbers and it's impossible to predict an upturn or downturn, however this is a stronger case for repeat cycles than a one off spike with no data other than "muh 30 years". (comic market is wildly different than 30, 20 or even 10 years ago... 2012 market valuation was 805,000,000)

     

    So, I'll do me and base my investing on the data I believe is pertinent and others can do themselves and base their strategies on past experiences.

     
  5. On 12/13/2022 at 6:27 PM, fastballspecial said:

    I've been doing this for about 30 years...

    ...Any long time sellers known this.

    No, no they don't. There is no such thing as 'knowing' what the market is going to do. Not to mention outside market factors that have a direct influence on the comic market.

    You do you and keep selling.

    I'll do me and keep buying.

    Cheers

     

  6. On 12/13/2022 at 9:10 AM, 1Cool said:

    Why do you think we will see a rebound at the end of the year but then crash in 2024?  You expecting the upcoming movies this year to push the market back up and then interest will wane in 2024?  That is not my opinion but I'm interested to hear your theory.

    With the stagflation that is happening and the current energy market, the Fed is trying to balance their response with quantitative easing and interest rate hikes. I believe this will lead to a rebound once winter passes, around April-June. (due to the war in Ukraine, sanctions and oil price caps, this winter is going to be rough around the world)

    However, the amount of debit that people are holding is going to have a severe impact on the economy, which is why I think a 2024 crash is likely, or at least a significant recession. In 2020 alone, the global debt rose by 28% points.(https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2021/12/15/blog-global-debt-reaches-a-record-226-trillion)

    There is a lot more, but that is getting into more of the technicals and this is a very basic overview.

  7. On 12/12/2022 at 9:37 PM, fastballspecial said:

    The last 1.5 years of sales are dead and gone. You will never see that again in your lifetime.

    We'll see if this holds true, but I don't agree with the assessment.

    A lot of people are speculating that the comic market has passed it's prime, but I believe it's just getting started and we are in a consolidation phase.

    I think the market will rebound around Q2-Q3, but will crash again in 2024.

  8. On 12/12/2022 at 12:53 PM, 1Cool said:

    Not a bad way to go if you think the market will rebound in the next couple years to even higher levels.  I'm not sure if we will see prices rebound back to the sky high levels realized last year for a long while but it's all speculation at that point.  The issue with multi year holds with key books is the anticipated gains may not be worth the cash being held up for years on end.  Buying a $2K book that dropped from $3K to wait two years to realize a few hundred dollar profit when it goes back up (fees taking the difference) isn't great money management especially if you think there is better money to be made in stocks or bonds.  The next 12 - 18 months will be interesting so I hope your buy and hold strategy pays off.

    It's a gamble either way. No one knows exactly what is going to happen, but markets are cyclical.

    I have a pretty diverse investment strategy and by no means am I putting everything into comics. However, if I can get a 10-15% return in a year-ish then that's a better return in a typical market.

    I think my DCA plan is going to do pretty well. I'm not picking up any fly-by-night keys hoping they turn into something profitable later on, I'm only buying issues that are and will be in demand. (with the exception of one specific comic I am speculating on)

    For example, I believe I'll be in a good position from picking up beautiful raw copies of X-Men 266s for under $100 when the market turns.

  9. On 12/12/2022 at 8:25 AM, 1Cool said:

    I love it when collectors say that they are happy prices are dropping and they hope sellers lose their shirts but then they are shocked by how low the offers are for their collections or books they want to sell.  Unless you are only buying and plan on being buried with your books, then crashing prices are not good for anyone.

    I disagree. Falling prices are great for those that plan on reselling when the market flips.

    I have been slowly grabbing deals on popular keys that I can resell later. I have no issue hodling for a year+ for a nice return. I plan on DCA buying all the way down.

  10. On 12/9/2022 at 4:38 PM, revat said:

    would you be happier if they didn't grade it independently of who pressed it?

    CCS should probably do a better job, and perhaps CGC grading should be more consistent overall, but what you're suggesting makes no sense.  Keeping a grade simply because the sister company did the pressing would ruin the integrity of the entire grading system.

    If you send something in for pressing, of course you expect the grade to change. I was referring to sending something in for signing and coming back lower. It seems there is a bit of variation in grading and to me, it would be nice if they stood behind their previous grades if they are the only ones that accessed the comic.

  11. This is my first time submitting anything to CGC for signing and was a little nervous since my order wasn't checked in, but now it's checked in and being sent for grading!!
    Now, I hope my 9.8s don't come back lower. (sent slabbed 9.8s and didn't get pressing because I figured "they already graded it 9.8 once, they wouldn't downgrade it"... *pray for me*)

  12. Hello All,

    I was wondering if anyone had any recommendations on comic collection apps.

    I currently use Comic Geeks as it has a built in 'collection valuation' to give an estimate of what the entire collection is worth. So far, it's a pretty good app, but seeing if there might be something better.

    Does anyone have any recommendations on other Collection apps? If so, what features do you like or why do you use that particular app?

     

  13. On 12/1/2022 at 3:32 PM, Eddiebrock147 said:

    Posted earlier about a sub received by CGC on 10/20 that still hasn't been logged in (Today makes 28 days). Was told by a rep that having submissions that were received after mine be logged into the system before mine was normal so much for first come first served. Does anyone else have a sub that was received around mine that has not been logged in yet?

    My 3 comics were received 10/27 and still not checked in.

  14. On 11/30/2022 at 5:51 AM, Big Brother said:

    My question still is: why would you pay a premium for a comic book that you can't read?

    You can read pretty much every comic online. Some people would rather collect the comics, sealed to retain their value but go online and read the comic to stay up to date and follow the story.

    However, some would rather hold what they are reading. Same thing with books. It's all a matter of preference. Neither is better than the other.

  15. On 11/28/2022 at 9:27 AM, CMatthews said:

    Hello! It sounds like you have a nice collection on your hands. At this time CGC does not offer a screening service for our grading services. One option is to contact as local dealer that may be able to sit down with you and go over the books that you have. I have included our Dealer Locator tool below. Find Comic Book Shops & Dealers | Comic Book Dealer Locator | CGC (cgccomics.com)

    I thought CGC offered grade screening on 25+ books at once.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Grade PreScreen

    (Also select Modern or Economy grading tier; 25-book minimum)

    Select Grade PreScreen and either the Modern or Economy grading tier. Then, specify a minimum grade up to 9.8 on your invoice (CGC does not offer PreScreen for 9.9 or 10 grades). You will be charged the selected grading fees ONLY for books that meet or exceed your specified minimum grade. The books that meet your specified grade will be certified and encapsulated according to tier, and those grading below your specified grade will be returned uncertified. There is an $8 per reject fee for all books that do not reach your specified grade. There is a 25-book minimum for Grade PreScreen and only ONE minimum grade allowed per submission. CGC does not accept Grade PreScreen for Signature Series submissions.