BarryAllen

Sold for less than even 2.0s have been selling for, but not an attractive copy, so that's to be expected. I wonder if it will reappear with a BIN of $995? This book also had 2 staples added which i'm sure affected the sellers asking price. I'd rather have slight color touch than 2 extra staples. If it was a clean copy of that book in 2.5 for 725 I would have scooped it up in an instant. Nice catch, I didn't see that when I reviewed the book (just looked at the PQ and moved on). Can't tell if he included that in his pricing thoughts or not, but since it has a blue label my bet would be that he was: 1) unaware of the price he could get -or- 2) wanted to move the book quickly -or- 3) a sufficiently_thoughtful_person I will need to research CGC's policies on extra non-manufacturing staples. I am surprised that this doesn't qualify as a form of restoration... Side point, I am not sure I agree on the staples versus color touch. I am interested to know why you prefer one versus the other?

If books like ST110, TTA27, Avengers 57, Cap 117 and TTA47 can gain price bumps behind movie speculation, it is not a far leap to believe that BB28 or even JLA1 will (among others like SC4 and 22). Most of these are MINOR Marvel characters on their best days and the value of their books is growing without any hard evidence they will hit the big screen (hard evidence meaning early photos or teasers & trailers). I have been reminded dozens of times on this site that DC books are still relatively low priorities on collector's lists relative to Marvel and there are a number of reasons this will change moving forward. No need to get into them, we all know them. How much will BB28 grow and how fast before a movie actually becomes reality is up for debate. As stated it is much more difficult to go from a $500 book to a $1,500 book than to go from $50 to $300 - but that doesn't mean it won't happen. But there is no question that the pricing on this book will increase between now and when a movie either debuts or gets cancelled. Even if pricing is driven solely by this site and other sites like it.

2.5 sold on eBay for $725 yesterday... Thoughts?

The same ebay seller has *five* copies of B&B 28 currently up for sale; probably wants to hype it all he can. To be fair that seller is both a boardie and someone that actively participates in this thread. He's a stand up guy and in spite of whatever price he's listed he has a "Best Offer" option. That means he's willing to discuss other prices of course and I'm sure that's always related to the state of the market at any given time. Honestly there aren't TOO many of these out there in high grade that have surfaced. I'm certain given enough time the prices are going to eclipse his current asking price. BTW: hype isn't necessarily a bad thing. +1

It's gone on so long, an entire new generation of boardies are now offering their opinions. This thread has reached perpetual motion status! I hadn't realized... I guess it has gone on a bit To be fair, it hasn't been a year yet! Was it concluded and I just missed the right answer somewhere back in the early pages...?

I think this would really depend on the Walking Dead comic though. If the new issues of the comic are still selling well when the TV series ends, I don't think you'll see a substantial drop in the prices. While the TV series gave the early issues a boost in value, the comic was popular and climbing in price long before the TV series came about. The TV series did bring more interest to the title, we all acknowledge that. The question is, does the Walking Dead comic have life after the TV series? I'm guessing so, since it had plenty of life before the TV series. The Walking Dead is breaking new ground in many regards. There are no American comic books that I can think of that are character driven that lasted as long as this title has. Furthermore, there does not seem to be a defined end for the series like many titles of it's kind, so the series can continue well past the creator's interest in the title, if the creator wants. I could see a day where all the original main characters are gone and this series is still selling well. I think for the most part, the title has been handled well. The 100th issue was a money grab absolutely, but when you consider the popularity of this title (not just pamphlets, but also in TPB), it was a smart move not to start pumping out auxiliary titles to accompany the main title. If this were a Marvel or DC title, there would be 12 different titles and the interest would have been killed long before now. By keeping the focus on the single monthly comic, the creator has managed to keep interest in this title high. As long as that continues, I don't see the Walking Dead comic fading into obscurity like many here are foretelling. Well put, I agree that there may still be a Walking Dead following post TV show that continue to read the comic and for that reason alone prices will most likely not reduce to zero. However, the entire reason there are comics that are worth large sums of money is because of their popularity beyond the books themselves (Batman, Superman, Mickey Mouse, Archie, etc). They are a staple of popular culture and are instilled in the hearts of every new generation of children born after their inception. Seriously, can you same the same thing is happening with Walking Dead...? If you look at the values 9.8 sales before and during the show, it is clear that there was a HUGE jump in popularity in the book post TV show (launched in 2010). Then values skyrocketed in 2012 when the viewing population doubled with the third season of the show versus the first season (viewers went from ~5.5 million to ~11 million per episode). Hard to argue that the TV show wasn't the sole driver of the huge increase in value. If I were to guess, I think you will see prices relax back to the 2007-2008 price points once the show is cancelled and the draw falls off about two years after the last episode. This will put 9.8 value around $130-350: low-end for the average buyer and high-end for the remaining die-hard collector. Year - High / Low 2013 - $2,899 / $1,625 2012- $3,500 / $900 2011- $900 / $474 2010 - $875 / $300 2009 - $550 / $250 2008 - $399 / $170 2007 - $325 / $132 2006 - $390 / $128 2005 - $117 / $33 2004 - $125 / $39

Are you saying that Walking Dead is in the same league as Superman or Batman? Great stories don't necessarily make valuable books. Iconic characters do.

Maybe, but I doubt it. There just isn't anything of substance to WD (or Heroes/Lost for that matter). What gives ALL successful comics long-term big value is the characters they feature. Without a great title character that reaches out to millions of people (beginning with children/kids), you don't have anything but a fad. Heroes, Lost, Walking Dead - all great examples of shows/movies that drew large audiences and popularity while available. They air, grow tired and fizzle away with a "pop" instead of a "bang." Minor, lack-luster characters and circular plot lines were common in all three. Star Trek and Star Wars - great examples of shows/movies that inspired generations and created a fandom that is routed in childhood and expressed in adult purchase power. Epic characters defined these genre(s). , some of your arguments are well-reasoned, but this one falls far short. Not sure if you've read the comic at all; it's character-driven at its core, and the zombies are peripheral at best. Character driven story lines and iconic lasting characters are different in my mind. Do you disagree?

I don't think you will convince rfoiii of that. He seems convinced there is some other factor that keeps a post-code Atlas fantasy book with a fairly pedestrian cover in demand, even though surrounding issues are still only $50 books in that condition, and that Catwoman 51 selling for what it does is some sort of statistical ebay noise. Personally, I think the demand for the Catwoman book is absurd, it's only connection to the show is an oblique reference to it on the cover, but it's continued popularity does show the sustained interest in the more mysterious elements of the show. It's not that I can't be convinced, it's that there has been little evidence presented other than the one cited sale. Maybe they are buoyed by the show, but that doesn't mean they are smart buys (particularly in the long-term). I don't disagree with that Regardless, these books were used as a proxy argument to prove that Walking Dead #1 will hold value long-term. That was not accomplished and to be honest it wasn't a persuasive argument to begin with. No they weren't. They were used as examples of TV show related books that sustain value for a few years after the show comes to an end, and as an argument that there is no guarantee that TWD #1 will drop significantly in value as soon as the show runs it's course. It might, it might not, and even if it doesn't I think it lacks the readily identifiable and potentially marketable core characters that have sustained long term interest in titles no longer at their peak like TMNT, Cerebus and Bone, and have doubts about long-term viability. I am still waiting for someone to present a valid argument that WD1 prices won't fall off a cliff. I suspect you wouldn't accept it, even if it were presented. Try me.

I don't think you will convince rfoiii of that. He seems convinced there is some other factor that keeps a post-code Atlas fantasy book with a fairly pedestrian cover in demand, even though surrounding issues are still only $50 books in that condition, and that Catwoman 51 selling for what it does is some sort of statistical ebay noise. Personally, I think the demand for the Catwoman book is absurd, it's only connection to the show is an oblique reference to it on the cover, but it's continued popularity does show the sustained interest in the more mysterious elements of the show. It's not that I can't be convinced, it's that there has been little evidence presented other than the one cited sale. Maybe they are buoyed by the show, but that doesn't mean they are smart buys (particularly in the long-term). Regardless, these books were used as a proxy argument to prove that Walking Dead #1 will hold value long-term. That was not accomplished and to be honest it wasn't a persuasive argument to begin with. I am still waiting for someone to present a valid argument that WD1 prices won't fall off a cliff.

Sure... Ask: (1) Beanie Babies (2) Cabbage Patch Kids (3) Garbage Pail Kids (4) Retro toys (5) Sports cards (6) Presidential campaign buttons (7) Bear traps (8) Vintage Disney (9) Movie memorabilia (10) Original art All these categories of collectibles have life-cycles that go up and down and all around. TWD is no different. My simple prediction (with no qualifiers) is that the books will continue to do well through the shows run. They my see peaks and valleys in between seasons, but will consistent in the short-term. AFTER THE SHOW ENDS... I think prices will go down. Reference Harry Potter and Twilight. When a driving force ends, people are on to the next thing. BUT, I also believe that after a downward trend there will be a return (nostalgia) for these books. People seeking them out that had them 15-20 years ago. Anything is game, but that's my prediction. I've seen it across many other collectibles. Fair enough. I agree with most of what you said (not sure if I agree on all the examples, but most are good), but I do not see a lot of "nostalgia" for the show in 15-20 years. Something about a repititve zombie movie not resonating with the young children of today enough that 20 years from now when they are in the 30's to drive them to go out and buy this book in droves.. Certainly not enough to drive more than $100 a book for a 9.8. But that is my opinion.

And you don't have to qualify your statements with a disclaimer... it's okay to be wrong. I'm wrong a lot and move on. Being wrong identifies instantly what was right. Nice!

There are, what, like 35 or so copies on ebay at any time? I'm gonna say demand has not outstripped supply. Of course it has... That's like saying there are a 1000 houses for sale at the beach. Everyone wants a beach house, hence that demand drives up the price to a level where the seller can maximize asking prices. Just because there's a lot of something doesn't mean the demand is not there. It means the price has reached a point to curtail rapid sell-outs. How many TWD #1 would be on eBay if the price was $100 per? Again, that is a logical fallacy. You can't pick another scenario and use it as a metaphor just because you like the point it proves. The situations are completely unrelated and stem from very different criteria. For instance: you cannot say that housing supply (necessary for human life) is the same as WD1 supply (NOT necessary for human life). Therefore the market dynamics are not the same, regardless of an economic supply and demand principle.. When 35 WD1 are on eBay at any given time and dozens of them remain unsold from month to month, that means that supply is outpacing demand. It doesn't necessarily mean the bubble has burst yet, or growth still isn't happening; but it does mean that the growth curve has slowed significantly. The whole point of this thread is to predict when the bubble will burst, but I have not seen anyone provide any evidence that it will not. Yes, I can use the housing analogy to argue my point - it's a "logical fallacy' for you to try to break my point regarding supply and demand based on perceived needs and wants There are X number of people in America that are homeless. The demand for homes is there, but sadly they cannot afford one. There are X number of Walking Dead collectors that want a #1, but $1500+ might be too rich for their blood. This is simple economics (supply and demand). Just because something is available and sits unsold doesn't mean there is no demand. There is. Go back to my previous post and answer the question... How many TWD #1 would be available if they were listed @ $100 per? We don't need to get into economic theory here, but the two are honestly not the same. Prices, while driven by supply and demand, also have additional criterion that attribute to successful purchases and sales. For instance, "needs" and "wants" garner different economic responses driving supply and demand. Houses and comics would not demonstrate the same supply/demand curves. Can we get back to the point of the thread? When do you think the bubble will burst?

Yeah I caught that, but left it out in a poor attempt to prove a point. Thank you though!

There are, what, like 35 or so copies on ebay at any time? I'm gonna say demand has not outstripped supply. Of course it has... That's like saying there are a 1000 houses for sale at the beach. Everyone wants a beach house, hence that demand drives up the price to a level where the seller can maximize asking prices. Just because there's a lot of something doesn't mean the demand is not there. It means the price has reached a point to curtail rapid sell-outs. How many TWD #1 would be on eBay if the price was $100 per? Again, that is a logical fallacy. You can't pick another scenario and use it as a metaphor just because you like the point it proves. The situations are completely unrelated and stem from very different criteria. For instance: you cannot say that housing supply (necessary for human life) is the same as WD1 supply (NOT necessary for human life). Therefore the market dynamics are not the same, regardless of an economic supply and demand principle.. When 35 WD1 are on eBay at any given time and dozens of them remain unsold from month to month, that means that supply is outpacing demand. It doesn't necessarily mean the bubble has burst yet, or growth still isn't happening; but it does mean that the growth curve has slowed significantly. The whole point of this thread is to predict when the bubble will burst, but I have not seen anyone provide any evidence that it will not.

Heroes was a mini series comic book though and the comic was based on the TV show not the other way around. I don't think thats a great comparison. The point is valid... Heroes had higher AVERAGE ratings than Walking Dead. Heroes featured comic books IN the show... most Walking Dead viewers don't even know it IS a comic. People got tired of Heroes. The show was cancelled. The comics plummeted. Walking Dead #1 won't ever be $69, but it cannot sustain its current popularity. When popularity falls, prices fall. People could easily lose half their investment. In this case, that's four figures. Agreed, best applicable example presented so far. Generally I agree with this, but some TV related books are stubborn, especially if the show has cult status ( which I don't doubt TWD will). Look at Mystery Tales #40, which still fetches ridiculous prices, even in low grade because it was featured on Lost, and Catwoman 51 still gets relatively high dollars, even in advertised less than nm raw because it featured numbers from the show on the cover. Eventually the prices will drop, but the show ended three years ago. While it is apparent that the speed which a comic falls from grace is not always equivalent to its meteoritic rise, I am not sure your examples are a good representation of "holding value." I know these were relevant to the show, but there is almost no GPA data on them... How popular can they be with so few recorded electronic sales? Where have you seen recent sales? Many times prices on these books linger for years while people try to recoup as much of their loss as possible, even though actual market sales pale in comparison. This is most easily seen with dealers at cons, web-sites and other low overhead retailers will hold on to them try to sell them for more than they are worth claiming "rare" or citing previous values (insert groan here). However, I could be wrong about these two books... GPA is only partially relevant, and then mainly with high grade, high dollar books. Mystery Tales #40 is probably sold raw more frequently than slabbed, with a raw FN selling recently on ebay for $4000, and if I recall correctly a raw low grade copy selling for over a grand a few months ago. Being a 1956 book there aren't a lot of copies around, and due to a couple deep pocket hoarders, the entire run sells for more than you would think, but these prices are about 4 - 5 times what surrounding issues might go for. Catwoman 51, while plentiful, is probably not worth slabbing in less than 9.6, maybe 9.4. Raw copies listed as vf/nm sell for around $40 frequently, as compared to maybe a buck or two for surrounding issues. Can you provide and image or link showing the eBay sale for the MT40? http://www.ebay.com/itm/Mystery-Tales-40-Apr-1956-Marvel-AS-SEEN-ON-LOST-ABC-TV-SHOW-Ditko-/300887449764?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item460e4a20a4 Side note, based on what you have said and others posted, MT40 was already a collectible book and it really hard very little to do with the Lost "cameo." Collectible yes, but so is every Atlas horror/fantasy book from the 50s, and none of rest are going to sell for that kind of money in raw 6.0. It has everything to do with the Lost connection Cat Woman 51 selling for $24-30 hardly makes it a relevant example even when in comparison to other issues close in number. People can be tricked into spending less than $50 on just about anything and unfortunately that is one thing eBay sellers have gotten good at. Not routinely, please find me another raw Catwoman from the run that has sold for anywhere near that amount. I don't disagree with the basic premise that these books are unlikely to hold their value long term, but you seem extremely dedicated to your denial that their current values have much to do with a TV show that peaked in popularity years ago. Thanks for the link on the MT40. Interesting that the same seller listed another copy of the book that did not sell at all a week later. Something is fishy here... There are at least 20 Catwoman 51s sold recently on eBay ranging from $50 down to $12.99 (most under $20)... This book is not rare, not valuable and not in demand. FYI - I am not in denial, you are creating a fictional causal link. The first book was already rare and worth something prior to the show and the second may have been for a minute and now is not.

Heroes was a mini series comic book though and the comic was based on the TV show not the other way around. I don't think thats a great comparison. The point is valid... Heroes had higher AVERAGE ratings than Walking Dead. Heroes featured comic books IN the show... most Walking Dead viewers don't even know it IS a comic. People got tired of Heroes. The show was cancelled. The comics plummeted. Walking Dead #1 won't ever be $69, but it cannot sustain its current popularity. When popularity falls, prices fall. People could easily lose half their investment. In this case, that's four figures. Agreed, best applicable example presented so far. Generally I agree with this, but some TV related books are stubborn, especially if the show has cult status ( which I don't doubt TWD will). Look at Mystery Tales #40, which still fetches ridiculous prices, even in low grade because it was featured on Lost, and Catwoman 51 still gets relatively high dollars, even in advertised less than nm raw because it featured numbers from the show on the cover. Eventually the prices will drop, but the show ended three years ago. While it is apparent that the speed which a comic falls from grace is not always equivalent to its meteoritic rise, I am not sure your examples are a good representation of "holding value." I know these were relevant to the show, but there is almost no GPA data on them... How popular can they be with so few recorded electronic sales? Where have you seen recent sales? Many times prices on these books linger for years while people try to recoup as much of their loss as possible, even though actual market sales pale in comparison. This is most easily seen with dealers at cons, web-sites and other low overhead retailers will hold on to them try to sell them for more than they are worth claiming "rare" or citing previous values (insert groan here). However, I could be wrong about these two books... GPA is only partially relevant, and then mainly with high grade, high dollar books. Mystery Tales #40 is probably sold raw more frequently than slabbed, with a raw FN selling recently on ebay for $4000, and if I recall correctly a raw low grade copy selling for over a grand a few months ago. Being a 1956 book there aren't a lot of copies around, and due to a couple deep pocket hoarders, the entire run sells for more than you would think, but these prices are about 4 - 5 times what surrounding issues might go for. Catwoman 51, while plentiful, is probably not worth slabbing in less than 9.6, maybe 9.4. Raw copies listed as vf/nm sell for around $40 frequently, as compared to maybe a buck or two for surrounding issues. Can you provide and image or link showing the eBay sale for the MT40? Side note, based on what you have said and others posted, MT40 was already a collectible book and it really hard very little to do with the Lost "cameo." Cat Woman 51 selling for $24-30 hardly makes it a relevant example even when in comparison to other issues close in number. People can be tricked into spending less than $50 on just about anything and unfortunately that is one thing eBay sellers have gotten good at.

Heroes was a mini series comic book though and the comic was based on the TV show not the other way around. I don't think thats a great comparison. The point is valid... Heroes had higher AVERAGE ratings than Walking Dead. Heroes featured comic books IN the show... most Walking Dead viewers don't even know it IS a comic. People got tired of Heroes. The show was cancelled. The comics plummeted. Walking Dead #1 won't ever be $69, but it cannot sustain its current popularity. When popularity falls, prices fall. People could easily lose half their investment. In this case, that's four figures. Agreed, best applicable example presented so far. Generally I agree with this, but some TV related books are stubborn, especially if the show has cult status ( which I don't doubt TWD will). Look at Mystery Tales #40, which still fetches ridiculous prices, even in low grade because it was featured on Lost, and Catwoman 51 still gets relatively high dollars, even in advertised less than nm raw because it featured numbers from the show on the cover. Eventually the prices will drop, but the show ended three years ago. Try to find a copy of Mystery Tales #39 or #41, or any other book from the title. They aren't easy to begin with, and add a little hype and prices can shoot up. See TTA #13 for a recent example of a book that is reasonably tough that currently has hype stacked on top. If the Mystery Tales book wasn't super tough to begin with I doubt that the price would be holding, but such small supply can buoy prices even with relatively slight demand. +1

You are proving my point that you can't just pick one attribute and use it as the sole success criteria. Long term valuable books combine great characters that appeal to multiple generations/peoples with a demand that exceeds supply. There are hundreds of examples that only meet a portion of the requirements.

Sure, Hiro season 1-2 was cool and Sylar pre-last episodes of season 3 was great. Don't miss the forest for the trees. What if you asked ten random 4th graders, would they know who Sylar is? What if you ask the same question about Luke Skywalker or Leonardo/Rafael/Michaelangelo/Donatello? Same questions to a group of 60+ retires?

Maybe, but I doubt it. There just isn't anything of substance to WD (or Heroes/Lost for that matter). What gives ALL successful comics long-term big value is the characters they feature. Without a great title character that reaches out to millions of people (beginning with children/kids), you don't have anything but a fad. Heroes, Lost, Walking Dead - all great examples of shows/movies that drew large audiences and popularity while available. They air, grow tired and fizzle away with a "pop" instead of a "bang." Minor, lack-luster characters and circular plot lines were common in all three. Star Trek and Star Wars - great examples of shows/movies that inspired generations and created a fandom that is routed in childhood and expressed in adult purchase power. Epic characters defined these genre(s).

Heroes was a mini series comic book though and the comic was based on the TV show not the other way around. I don't think thats a great comparison. The point is valid... Heroes had higher AVERAGE ratings than Walking Dead. Heroes featured comic books IN the show... most Walking Dead viewers don't even know it IS a comic. People got tired of Heroes. The show was cancelled. The comics plummeted. Walking Dead #1 won't ever be $69, but it cannot sustain its current popularity. When popularity falls, prices fall. People could easily lose half their investment. In this case, that's four figures. Agreed, best applicable example presented so far. Generally I agree with this, but some TV related books are stubborn, especially if the show has cult status ( which I don't doubt TWD will). Look at Mystery Tales #40, which still fetches ridiculous prices, even in low grade because it was featured on Lost, and Catwoman 51 still gets relatively high dollars, even in advertised less than nm raw because it featured numbers from the show on the cover. Eventually the prices will drop, but the show ended three years ago. While it is apparent that the speed which a comic falls from grace is not always equivalent to its meteoritic rise, I am not sure your examples are a good representation of "holding value." I know these were relevant to the show, but there is almost no GPA data on them... How popular can they be with so few recorded electronic sales? Where have you seen recent sales? Many times prices on these books linger for years while people try to recoup as much of their loss as possible, even though actual market sales pale in comparison. This is most easily seen with dealers at cons, web-sites and other low overhead retailers will hold on to them try to sell them for more than they are worth claiming "rare" or citing previous values (insert groan here). However, I could be wrong about these two books...

Maybe, but I doubt there are an abundance of shops/individuals holding volume on this book. If there are, and you are reading this, sell now If someone had volume and was waiting for a $1500-$2500 book to become a $3000-$4000 book, that would be sillier than the silliest silly person around. I just meant that they could only sell one $1,500 book in their store or online at a time. Many more and you would deflate your own pricing...

Heroes was a mini series comic book though and the comic was based on the TV show not the other way around. I don't think thats a great comparison. The point is valid... Heroes had higher AVERAGE ratings than Walking Dead. Heroes featured comic books IN the show... most Walking Dead viewers don't even know it IS a comic. People got tired of Heroes. The show was cancelled. The comics plummeted. Walking Dead #1 won't ever be $69, but it cannot sustain its current popularity. When popularity falls, prices fall. People could easily lose half their investment. In this case, that's four figures. Agreed, best applicable example presented so far.