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Jaydogrules
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Posts posted by Jaydogrules
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Did anybody happen to see what the 8.0 and 5.5 went for on comiclink tonight ?
-J.
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On 4/26/2022 at 1:58 PM, Gatsby77 said:
?
Here's Bosco's latest chart of the DCEU films to date. And even though it's a week out of date, it clearly shows that - even then - The Batman outperformed the average revenue ratio of all of those movies. Revenue-to-cost ratio matters here, because it accounts for inflation.
It was different a theatrical world in 1978 when Superman: The Movie hit as it was in 2008 when The Dark Knight hit.
Funny how you don't mind Bosco rounding up when it's on a movie you like.
Barely average. On your biggest property. With no competition. And china. Not adjusted for inflation. Yay.
I stand by my statements.
-J.
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On 4/26/2022 at 3:15 AM, Gatsby77 said:
Except it didn't. Go back and look at Bosco's chart - that's blatantly false.
And while technically it may have "underperformed the average of every Batman movie" - it still well out-performed the likes of Batman Returns, Forever, Batman & Robin and Batman Begins.
As for the *extra $200 million* it *should* have made, just look to China.
While it's still on track to book $30 million there, that's a far cry from the $150-$200 million norm.
But that's because 40% of China's theaters were closed due to Covid the day The Batman opened there, and it's only gotten worse in the weeks since. Shanghai went into complete lockdown two weeks ago and Beijing followed suit last weekend.
China's basically a non-factor for this film - not because it wasn't released there or wasn't popular there, but because of widespread Covid lockdowns.
You're still making excuses for why this movie under-performed by $200MM.
Read my comment again. I said it performed below the AVERAGE of those other movies. Which it did.
Pretty lame considering this is DC's biggest character, it had no competition for 3 weeks and even nailed a China release (I've already linked multiple articles showing how Chinese theaters have been closing intermittently for many movies, and see no reason to repeat myself here, movies that made a lot more than batman did, that excuse is tired and played out and needs to be permanently scrapped, the movie just plain bombed there like other American movied did , jungle cuise and the matrix included, oh and do you seriously need to be reminded how much no way home made with NO china at all?).
Pretty lame ibox office numbers indeed. It should have been shorter, much shorter, and better.
-J.
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On 4/24/2022 at 11:53 AM, Gatsby77 said:
Correct.
Because 2x in only 10 days equates to well over 3.5x theatrical over a short 9 week run. Velocity.
Or...are you overlooking that - even though many on this very comic book message board waited to see it at home on HBO Max rather than pay to see it in the theater, that The Batman's not only clocked the top domestic gross of the year so far, but it's also out-grossed every other DCEU film listed on Bosco's chart domestically but for Wonder Woman.
That means it out-did most of them domestically *even accounting for inflation.*
When you have to parse numbers this hard to convince people your movie was a smash hit, it wasn't.
I'm not saying it was a flop or even that it lost money. It has made a very modest amount theatrically for the studio- and we are talking about DC's biggest comic book property BY FAR. It under performed the average of every other DC movie to date including every Batman movie ever made.
No, that is not impressive.
It is "meh". It should have made at least 200 million more and might have if it was shorter and better. And yes I'm more impressed by morbius' 2x in three weeks than I am by batmans in 10 days or even 3 weeks, since, as I have noted before, and you keep ignoring, the movie had ZERO competition for nearly the first month of its existence.
-J.
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On 4/24/2022 at 11:10 AM, Bosco685 said:
Not sure you can compare a film that did 2.X in a week and a film that took 4 weeks to finally break that barrier.
But if it gives you comfort...please tell your friend it will be okay. For your friend, that is.
Wait- "velocity" isn't relevant because the statements weren't simply, "this made 2x in only 2 weeks, therefore it is a 'smash''", the statement was "this is officially a 'smash'' at 400MM (2x multiple)"
Oh, And Batman had NO competition for its first three weekends morbius had tons, including batman.
-J.
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On 4/24/2022 at 9:25 AM, Bosco685 said:
All I want to know is, now that this film is "well over" 150MM, 2x, is it a "smash" like the Batman supposedly was at the same multiple ?
...Asking for a logical friend who only expects to see people adhering to a consistent narrative when it comes to their layman analytics.
-J.
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On 4/18/2022 at 8:48 AM, lostboys said:
Meh, we're just chatting.
I know who Elsa B is for what that's worth.
I'd love for someone to convince me that Miles is a good investment and not all internet hype.
I want to want a copy.
Looks like you already know the answer.
-J.
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On 4/17/2022 at 3:48 PM, Gatsby77 said:
Not quite.
$75 million x 2 = $150 million.
Current (estimated) total: $146.42 million.
$146.42 < $150
By your pretzel "logic" it's officially a money maker. Doesn't matter how many weeks it took to hit 2x, Batman had the benefit of NO competition for the first 3 weeks it was out, and still somehow managed to underwhelm the box office.
Oh, and Batman's 3.7 multiplier, is still below average for all Batman movies, still WELL below the dreadful suicide squad movie from 6 years ago multiplier, still barely even beat that movie's worldwide gross, after several weeks, and still didn't do it if we even the playing field by backing out China
#Stillmeh
-J.
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On 4/17/2022 at 8:31 AM, Gatsby77 said:
Noting for the record, that after 3 weekends, Morbius has still not reached that 2x multiple.
#MathIsHard
Yeah. Still not the point.
#oblivioustocontext
-J.
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On 4/16/2022 at 7:54 AM, Ryan. said:
Nice! Love this cover.
-J.
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On 4/14/2022 at 3:13 PM, rob_react said:
99.99% of people in the world don't know who Roy is, I'll give you that. The percentage of people in this thread that know who Roy is is much higher (including Roy himself
)
Touché lol. And nothing against Roy, we may go back and forth sometimes but I have nothing against the guy personally or professionally.
But when somebody says "it's just as good as a public auction because Roy saw it", that doesn't move the needle.
@sfcityduck You're right, shilling an auction can definitely queer data points, and I'm sure it at least "can" happen even with all the sefagaurds the big auction houses have in place.
But again, that's the beauty of sales happening in public view , they are open to scrutiny and can be questioned and vetted by the masses on boards like these.
-J.
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On 4/14/2022 at 10:24 AM, Larryw7 said:
Yeah, Roy and all of the guys here who were witnesses made it all up. It was a plot to discredit AF 15 and the Marvel Zombie movement. And you are powerless to stop it!
I don't know who Roy is and neither do 99.99% of people.
@Crowzilla My bad, when I first quickly read the article, I saw "mile high" and immediately conjured Rozanski.
My points still stand nonetheless. Public auctions > "Private sales". All day. Every day.
If it beats AF 15 in a public auction on the same terms and ground rules, great. Otherwise, *asterisk*
-J.
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On 4/13/2022 at 12:05 PM, Iceman399 said:
Are we allowed to panic now that AF15 isn't the most expensive book ever sold...or does it not count cause it wasn't at one of the few auction houses
Except it still is. "Private sales" < Public auctions.
-J.
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Get asm 10 first spider-punk instead. There's a 1:25 dell'otto variant for it. Still yet another spider-derivative,like character but he's more original and has a lower entry level for now and is not divisive the way morales is.
-J.
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On 4/13/2022 at 10:20 PM, VintageComics said:
I suppose I have to say something otherwise people will think I have something to hide.
Like all the witnesses who see all details in a public auction?
Anything is possible of course but if you've followed my posts on those topics in the past, I've exposed some of the methods used to inflate prices.
This is a real sale. Neither the people nor the book are a secret to most old school collectors.
And let's face it, this isn't the only big sale in the last year. We've seen Batman #1's, Cap #1's, Superman #1's, Action #1's, Detective #27's, AF #15s etc all sell for record numbers in the past year and they ALL fall into a range where they were expected to, relative to each other. There would be almost NO benefit to artificially inflating the sale of one book compared to all the other books around it. It would stick out like a sore thumb. More importantly, a Superman #1 CGC 7.0 sold for $2.6MIL 5 months ago. This is the highest graded copy and a Church to boot.
Even before the sale happened, Superman #1 was readily accepted by most to be a top 4-5 or more likely a top 3 book of all time. The discussions were had both here and even in the SA forum so is this book really an outlier?
Has CGC ever announced the previous grade on a book when the grade has changed?
No. So why would you expect them to do so here?
People have complained for years that CGC changes serial numbers on upgrades as though they are trying to hide something.
Now they keep the same serial number and they still complain.
And why on earth would they remove the color touch notation if the color touch is still there?
But, but, but...the Superman #1 had white pages.
[B】This is a public sale. You know as much about this sale as you do about an auction house sale. [/b]
No, it is absolutely NOT a public sale. It is, in fact , an expressly "private sale" that was made "public" with only the purported info the parties involved in it decided to make public, thus evading any kind of vetting that happens with an actually public auction. And others have already said why there is a significant difference. People can claim anything and market manipulation is a thing, and one of the people involved has been known to do such a thing.
Put the thing up for auction and prove it. If not, there's an asterisk next to it and AF 15 is still top dog
-J.
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On 4/10/2022 at 8:02 PM, paperheart said:
Batman, after a second weekend down 50%, was at $486 million or 2.43x production budget. Morbius, after a second weekend down 70%, is at $126 million or 1.68x production budget. Now in the Bizarro accounting world, if you round Batman down to the nearest whole number and round Morbius up to the nearest whole number, they are both at 2x production budget. Also in the Bizarro accounting world, if you round Batman's 2nd weekend decline up to the next ten and round Morbius's 2nd weekend decline down to the next ten, they both declined 60%. Therefore, performance to date has been virtually identical. #mathishardfordogs
Wow. You really whiffed this one didn't you.
Who said anything about second weekend grosses ? My point is that people are, absurdly, declaring morbius a "failure" when it is nearly at a 2x multiple (less than 24MM shy), and yet batman was a runaway smash at the same multiple:
Are people really this bad at keeping their narratives straight? I mean seriously, at least be consistent with your analyses.
Read this post more than once this time before you reply.
(Also, as a matter of note, Batman was at 463MM after two full weekends with absolutely no competition, not 486.
-J.
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On 4/11/2022 at 2:53 AM, Gatsby77 said:
Your weekly reminder that The Batman has out-performed "Still Less Than 2016 Suicide Squad With No China" weekend by weekend -- and week by week -- across nearly every metric so far.
Not only is its domestic total well above Suicide Squad's, but its worldwide total currently stands at 98.4% of Suicide Squad's -- with some gas left in the tank. And it will surpass that sometime this week. *Despite* being available to watch on HBO Max in less than 2 weeks.
So either they're both successful (true) or they're both embarrassing failures (false).
Both statements are incorrect when you factor their relative budgets and that suicide squad had no China.
The correct statement is , suicide squad, a truly terrible film, performed demonstrably better than the most recent, "well reveiewd" Batman movie.
That is not a compliment to suicide squad it is an indictment of the batman movie. Even now it is still at a below average multiple and will be doing well at this point to even reach "average".
It should have done a lot better business. Period. Especially in the wake of no way home. It won't even get within $100MM of homecoming which came out like 5 years ago.
"Meh" is still the word for that.
-J.
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So... just trying to keep up with the ever shifting narratives here and there ...
The ("Still Less Than 2016 Suicide Squad With No China") Batman was "raking it in" at 400MM box office (2x production), but morbius is DOA in its second weekend at 1.68X (just 24MM short of 2x)?
-J.
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On 4/7/2022 at 4:44 PM, Northwest said:
Today, the 7.0 went for 222k which is below the same grade which went for 252k (also at Heritage in January 2022).
The 7.5 went for 300k. I am not seeing any comp sales since earlier in 2021.
The buyers in signature auctions are likely distinct from the overall hobby, so I would say more time is needed to evaluate the trajectory of these books.
Pretty clear the 7.5 cannibalized the 7.0. I don't know why HA would auction two books at the same time so close in grade.
Still , only a ~10% difference is not a big difference even with the 7.5 gobbling up some of its bandwidth.
-J.
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On 4/7/2022 at 3:58 PM, Aman619 said:
Id say that there will be a lot of increase for lower grade copies now that Cap 1 has a 3M sale on the board. Just like AF15 at 3.6 had jumpstarted all the lower grades since. Theres so much less risk paying the price now for any Cap 1 than there was a week ago!
This.
-J.
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If it beats AF 15 in a public auction on the same terms and ground rules, great. Otherwise, *asterisk*
X-MEN #1 club
in Silver Age Comic Books
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Thank you !
-J.