delekkerste

So collectors from that late 80's era could be hitting their early 30's (likely big spending collector age) in around 5-10 years or so. This allows room for price growth on the book for at least another decade IMHO. This is a valid point, and you could be proven right over time. However, we should keep in mind how unreliable demographic-based predictions can be (weren't they telling us just a few years ago that Baby Boomers investing for retirement would keep the stock market soaring through 2010 or so?) At some point, prices can become unsustainably high even if few people are able to recognize it at the time. Perhaps we are closer to that stage in the evolution of Hulk 181 prices than people think. Maybe, maybe not. I'm *not* saying that I expect prices to soften anytime soon, but I *am* saying that this book is no sure thing to moonshot higher over the next decade like many people expect. There's no question the book *has been* a solid investment to date, but that just tells me that you *should have* ridden the book from $200 to $2000, not that you should expect to turn a $2000 investment in the book today into $20,000 in 15 years. That said, all this Hulk 181 hype has me raring to go out and buy a copy. Gene

This is THE bronze key book. Bigger than GS #1, X-Men #94. It is presently. It was not always the case. It may not be the case in the future. I think it would be unwise to assume that the future will look exactly like a linear extrapolation of the present day. That is how most of our brains are hard-wired to perceive the future, but unfortunately, the future rarely allows us to get away with such a simplistic heuristic. For better or worse, the world is much more non-linear than our brains are programmed to perceive it. Wolverine (while I agree he's over-exposed) is easily Marvel's 2nd most popular and recognizable character. This book has slowed since the summer (remember the 9.8's that got to 10K, and didn't reach reserve?) I don't think Hulk 181 has cooled at all. Some of the recent sales in the 9.2, 9.4 and 9.6 grades are hitting all-time highs lately ahead of X-Men 2. I suspect this will last for awhile, but 10 years is a long time for anything to keep appreciating at such high rates. Trees don't grow to the sky, as they say. but this book is an extremely solid investment. If you buy a copy now, and hold onto it for 10yrs., you will make alot of money on the sale If Hulk 181 in 9.4 was, say, a sure $10K book 10 years from now, me, you and everyone else would be buying every copy hand over first at limits much higher than prevailing market prices. It takes two sides to make a market, though. Many people do not believe it is a lay-up to hit $5K and then $10K. Many people recognize that you can buy a decent used car or pay more than a year's rent with that kind of money and that maybe Wolverine's popularity is close to as high as it'll ever get. I doubt that Wolvie will ever have a universal appeal like Spidey. Everybody can relate to the hard-luck Peter Parker. Not everyone can relate to a berzerker savage like Logan. And you have to ask yourself, will the *next* generation of collectors (yeah, I know - *what* next generation???) be willing to fork out huge $$$ for Hulk 181? Or do you think that enough of the current aging collector crowd will be nostalgic and rich enough to bid up prices many hundreds of percentage points in the future? The future's uncertain and the end is always near! Or so my late friend Jimbo Morrison was wont to say. Gene

I disagree, I sense Wolverines popularity is waning somewhat. Someone finally has the guts to say it! Wolverine is so over-exposed these days it's not funny. He's in Uncanny X-Men, New X-Men, Ultimate X-Men and Wolverine every month...and recently in Wolverine: Netsuke, Wolverine and the Hulk, Wolverine: The Origin, Elektra & Wolverine: The Redeemer, Logan & Ben Grimm (or whatever that was), plus guest-appearances in X-Force, Punisher, etc. etc. And now we have another Wolverine/Hulk mini-series due out any day, a Wolverine & Doop 2-parter coming out soon, a reboot of his solo series, sequels to Origin that Marvel will undoubtedly cash in for the next decade...can he get more popular than he is now? Once you're at the top of the mountain, isn't it all downhill from here? I suspect that Wolverine's popularity will top out soon if it hasn't already. Sure, X-Men 2 will boost his exposure in the short-term, but will he be more popular than he was when they were printing a gazillion copies of his mini-series in 1982? When they launched his solo book in 1988? When X-Men #1 sold multi-millions in 1991? When Wolvie stole the show in the first X-Men film in 2000? When Origin fever got our speculative juices flowing in 2001-2002? Will the next generation of collectors be all ga-ga about Wolverine as we are today? Enough to pay $10,000 for his first appearance ($10K still buys a lot these days, you know) 10 years from now? I, for one, vote no. The dealers say that there is not enough supply to satisfy demand even at the current high prices for Hulk 181. They're probably right! However, I do not believe for a moment that Wolvie's popularity and current price trends for Hulk 181 can be linearly extrapolated indefinitely into the future. People's tastes change over time and I have a strong suspicion that the drooling fanboys of tomorrow may not be so willing to shell out months and months worth of mortgage payments for this not-so-rare book in the future. Gene

My first Bronze slabs were a GS X-Men #1 (came back a 9.2 and made a 50% profit when I sold it for $750...I used the proceeds to buy a 9.4 copy which I later sold for a 35% profit...which I used to buy my current 9.6 copy which has again appreciated 35-40%!) and an X-Men #94 (which came back a 9.0 and I still own). Soon after, I slabbed an ASM #129, which came back an 8.5. I sold that after I upgraded to a 9.4...and then I sold that after I got my 9.6 white paged copy!! So, I'm not only a member of the "I Slabbed an ASM #129 and Now I Own a CGC 9.6 Copy Club", but I'm also the President! Gene

Did you see the Wall Street Journal today (also repeated on the Channel 11 local news here in New York) about SpongeBob's huge fan base in the gay community? Not that there's anything wrong with that, but very interesting...

Liquidate already...I'm waiting for all your stock! I know, Gene, you have some nice books that you've outbid me on. Dump 'em. The prices are all going down the tubes anyway... If it were as simple as hitting a button on my computer, I would certainly do it! But, in practice, it would be a royal pain and a colossal time-sink to scan, list, pack, ship, etc. each book and then buy them back in the future. I'm content to just hold onto most of what I have and enjoy it. I'm just not cut out for the mail-order comic business! Gene

You are just like CI here, playing comic industry guardian angel? Don't take this wrong but who appointed you? I don't know...who watches The Watchmen? I think that people can benefit from my insights, whether or not they ultimately agree with what I say. I see the CGC market like a flaming train wreck hurtling toward us at breakneck speed...if I can yell "LOOK OUT!" and help a few people sidestep this impending disaster, that makes me feel good. If I can engage in some intelligent debate with people like you, I enjoy that too. If I achieve some notoriety as to inspire flaming ad hominem attacks from others, that's fine as well. Gene

I think however you are breaking one of the "collector"'s unwritten commandments: Thou shalt not bid unless you intend on buying (not make it interesting). Ah yes, but both buyers and sellers benefit from liquid, efficient markets. If people like me weren't there to place bids and make sure prices weren't more reflective of reality, sellers might be more reluctant to sell, which doesn't benefit anybody! And I always pay up promptly if I should win and usually bid reasonably, so all it does is keep the market juices flowing. I've actually stopped bidding so freely these days anyway... ended up winning too many auctions at low/opening bid levels as prices for non-keys have PLUNGED!! Gene

but I am curious, just what %s of current retail do you see books crashing down to? But again, I am curious as to how much of a cataclysm you foresee. Many people on this Board seem to lack the imagination to even conceive that prices could fall more than 10-15%, tops. Which is amazing to me, given that just about everybody has learned first-hand in the last couple of years that even the bluest of the blue chip stocks can go to zero within the span of a year. What if the housing bubble bursts and we have a spate of personal bankruptcies and a banking crisis? What if the Dow Jones falls below 5000? What if these problems in Latin America cause another 1997 or 1998-style emerging markets crisis? What if a war with Iraq goes badly - they use chemical weapons against Israel and Tel Aviv responds with a nuclear strike? What if there is another terrorist attack in the US worse than 9/11? Or what if none of this happens, but the economy simply continues to remain weak, people continue to lose jobs, and there is a global recession and deflation? If you are an educated person, can you easily dismiss any of these not-improbable scenarios? If any one of these not-improbable things happens, is it likely that CGC prices will escalate? Or fall just a little bit? Is it not conceivable that, in some of these scenarios, they could sell for mere pennies on the dollar? I'm not saying that will necessarily happen, but it is easy for me to envision multiple scenarios where prices fall substantially and people will wish they had cash in the bank rather than a pile of plastic-slabbed funny books. Gene

Sour grapes for everyone beating you out on your bids is seen as just that: sour grapes. You and I bump heads often on auctions, especially USM/UXM junk, but I bear no ill will at all, as that is the name of the game. You must be kidding me. Darth - 95-98% of the auctions I bid on are just to track the market. Sometimes I make multiple bids to keep things interesting. Almost everything CGC that I really want, I have already accumulated. These days, I mostly just buy new issues for my reading pleasure and am looking to fill in a couple of runs and upgrade a few books. You can believe me or not believe me, but I would swear on a stack of Bibles that whatever I say in my posts or my Me page has absolutely nothing to do with trying to get prices lower for my own benefit. Similarly, I didn't short the stock market on the way down, but I sure as hell did warn everybody I could (and continue to do so) to get out because I don't want to see my friends get wiped out by greed & speculative foolishness. What would you have me do - just nod and wink and say, "Sure, friend - it's OK to take out a 2nd mortgage on your house so you can buy an AF #15 CGC 9.0 because surely the sequel will take that book to over $100K?" You don't seem to keep in mind that to get these books graded is a costly expense and selling them goes towards someone's livelihood. Oh believe me, I have been aware of this for some time. I openly questioned this on my Me page a long time ago, back when 9.0s and 9.2s were just starting to go out of fashion, that dealers will be losing a fortune in grading fees because of the shift in market sentiment, sitting on a ton of unsalable inventory. I know it's a tough business, subject to all kinds of changing shifts in whims and tastes. I am sympathetic to that - I do have friends in the dealer community. But you guys will definitely have to adapt - the CGC market excess continues to correct itself and I think it will only get more difficult from a dealer perspective going forward. I know dealer Reynold Jay recently pulled a bunch of Modern submissions from CGC citing unfavorable market conditions. That's the new reality, I'm afraid. Gene

Let me ask you, if you are so against this effect of movie hype on the industry, would you turn down the offer for one of your books you can let go if the offer was a high multiple of NM guide, just so you can say you are a man of principle? Hey, I'm a capitalist first and a comic collector second. But I'm NOT going to make spurrious arguments to the buyer like "this book is going to soar if Daredevil breaks $150 million domestic at the box office". I think the best advice is not to get in over your head. Bid and pay what you feel comfortable with and even if the market crashes That's what I've said all along. But I know there are people out there playing Russian roulette with their savings, betting big on comics as an investment vehicle. And I know that there are dealers out there spurring them on with Movie Hype voodoo and other dubious arguments. Gene

Gene, I have no problem with you or your me page. You are not doing anything to promote the hobby as a collector by being so negative Carl, this is where I disagree vehemently with you. I think speculative excess is the threat here, not my warning about it. Comics absolutely stunk in the 1990s, and now finally they are good again. We all know collectors who left the hobby and recently came back - heck, I quit for a year or two in the late 1990s. Now why would we want to burn these folks by fomenting speculative excess that will inevitably lead to a bust? It's very short-sighted, like those corporate execs, VCs, I-bankers, research analysts, etc. who essentially pumped and dumped stock in the late, lamented bull market. Sure, they made out like bandits for awhile, but now they've killed the goose laying the golden eggs. Gene

"Are your posts really supposed to mean anything or are they just puff pieces about how much money and brains you think you have? I usually don't respond to someone's posts like this but I have had about enough of your lengthy soliliques on your self and limited knowledge of comics. It is annoying." Hey, sorry you feel that way, but the truth is, I get a TON of messages from eBayers, many of whom do not post on these forums, and the response to my "Me" page has been overwhelmingly positive. Let's face it - a lot of people have an uneasy feeling that what I am saying is correct, but since nobody else is saying it, they have been lulled into a false sense of complacency and security. Your ad hominem attacks don't faze me and really say more about what kind of person *you* are then what I am. I suggest you listen to the message and not the messenger... you may think they are "puff pieces", but we'll see who's right and laughing all the way to the bank a couple years from now and who's crying in their milk. Gene

Bonjour et goede middag, >>"You seem to strongely believe that the CGC market is heading for a crash" I would argue strongly that the market has *already* crashed. The harder-to-find books and Movie Hype books are still ridiculously priced and/or are still rising BUT that masks the fact that the vast majority of CGC books are selling for much less than they did back in 2000 when any 9.0, 9.2 or 9.4 would fetch big bucks. This narrowing breadth of rising vs. declining books...isn't this exactly how the stock market behaved in the last 6-9 months before EVERYTHING went to pieces? >>"So why aren't you getting rid of yours ? IIRC you were a high-profile bidder on a lot of Spidey books from February to late Spring...aren't you afraid that you'll get stuck with those books?" I may have been a high-profile bidder, but if you look at how many books I actually won, it was actually very small. And I have always spent way, way, way below my means. I am currently sitting on a pile of cash large enough to buy just about anything short of an Action #1 CGC 9.4 but do you see me bidding like crazy? I prefer to wait...mark my words, the price of just about everything, not just comic books, will be lower in the coming few years. By the way, I am never selling my collection...I intend to pass it down to the next generation. I'm a collector first and foremost and a market pundit second. >>And I also believe that the second Spider-man movie (still think they should include 'web' somewhere in the title) will indeed get the speculator train rolling again...Both Vulture and Doc Oc seem to be fore-runners... So, let's say Christopher Walken plays Doc Ock, as is currently rumored. What then? Is ASM #3 going to go through the roof because the "unknown" Doc Ock has suddenly been discovered? Will my ASM #158 suddenly be worth something all of a sudden? See how irrational this Movie Hype is? Met vriendlijk groetjes/Salutations amicales, Gene

Hi Kevin, Thanks for the thoughtful reply. Believe me, I am all for a resurgence in comic books and superheroes. What I do not support is dealers using Movie Hype to fuel unsustainable prices in books and collectors basing their purchase decisions on speculation on which characters may or may not appear in an upcoming movie or how well a movie will do at the box office. What does that have to do with anything? Are you telling me that I should turn the other cheek and say that $295 for a DD #188 CGC 9.6 is OK? Let's call a spade a spade: that price is just absurd. The only factor that should count as far as movies are concerned are whether the films will spur popularity of a character that leads to long-term increased demand for that character's appearances. As far as the CGC market is concerned, did the Spidey movie really do that? Wasn't the Green Goblin already the most popular Spidey villain and weren't the people bidding up ASM #14 and #122 and what not already hard-core collectors before the movie? And if Movie Hype really does lift all boats, why do Movie Hype proponents always point to X-Men and Spidey? What about the vast number of other existing and planned comic-related movie and TV projects? Weren't X-Men and Spidey already the industry's two hottest franchises? Did we need movies to boost their comic values? Of course not. It just gave dealers an excuse to hype the books up further. Gene

Hey folks, I've updated my latest "About Me" CGC market commentary on eBay, this time addressing Movie Hype Nonsense and the potential effects of the worsening economy on the CGC market. You can find it here: http://members.ebay.com/aboutme/de-lekkerste/ Check it out and let the debate begin. Gene