delekkerste

Ditto.

That Eerie 7 cover is one of the best ever. Here's my favorite Vampirella cover (one of Enrich's finest). Covers like this one helped to spark my interest in collecting Vampirella comics and original artwork:

I can't believe we are having a serious debate on whether New Mutants #98 is a rare book. Does somebody have that CBG book that came out a year or so ago with all the circulation figures so we can end this insanity already?!!

"My point is your opinion is all it is... an opinion. Nobody knows for sure what's going to happen. To a certain degree, it's almost pointless even discussing it...because nobody knows. Will something happen in the future to turn the market around? Sure. But don't ask me what it will be." "Does anyone really believe that the stock market is much too high today? Even a major correction will establish which values are primed for future growth." "I agree, but I also think there are always going to be those "Hidden Jewels" that somehow defy the trends, but having those is the key." Now I know what the last days of Rome must have felt like with the barbarians pressing at the gates...people saying "all is well, I'm optimistic about the future", "the Empire will come back, it always does", "we will survive this and be stronger for it in the future", "it's not like all of us are going to suffer a setback from this, some of us will somehow defy the trends"... Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Those who do learn from history are doomed to make other mistakes. Gene

"If we're talking in broad terms... the biggest factor will be... history. Look at a price guide from 1983 and find the prices for 1973 books. Do they go up by 1993? You bet. Look at a price guide from 1993 and find the prices for 1983 books. Have they gone up in 2003? You bet." "I've always heard things like "What! XXX for that book! You've got to be kidding me!",. Ten years later, we would all jump at the chance to buy the book that cheap again." Look, the "where are comic prices going?" topic has been beaten to death...I wouldn't say anything, but specious arguments like these drive me up the wall. Look at it this way: I went to work in downtown Manhattan on September 11, 1993... and September 11, 1994... and September 11, 1995... and September 11, 1996... and September 11, 1997... and September 11, 1998... and September 11, 1999... and September 11, 2000 and all of those days were perfectly fine. By linear extrapolation, I would have predicted September 11, 2001 to be no different. Of course, I would have been catastrophically mistaken. Linear extrapolation glossed over all the actions and trends that led to this unspeakable act of terrorism. Similarly, looking at the past 30 years of comic prices in 10 year increments (a statistically insignificant 3 data points) and ajudging the future to be perfectly bright is a totally meaningless endeavor. We live in a non-linear world - don't expect the next 30 years to look anything like the past 30 years. Comics are in a slow, secular decline (any industry professional who isn't completely stupid or a liar will admit as much) - to gloss over that point and predict ever-rising prices would be like focusing on the leaves of a particular tree while the entire forest is burning down around you. We've already had a non-linear, parabolic rise in certain segments of the market and that will likely be followed by a non-linear correction that will scare the complacency and optimism right out of you. By the end of the coming correction (whenever that may be), you'll all be thinking Joe_Collector was entirely too optimistic in his prognostications. That will be the time to put aside your fear and loathing and buy with both hands. Gene

Gene, Paul (Wolvergeek) and I go back to the beginnings of the CGC craze and were in regular contact. Ahhh, the good old days, before you became the Bronze Overlord of the Sith and I became Dr. Doom! But, seriously, it's been a pleasure wheeling and dealing, swapping ideas and even butting heads with you over the past 3 1/2 years. Thanks for your help in sourcing some of my most prized books as well as helping me out with new issues during my travels. Your post-9/11 comic care package did not go unappreciated either. One of these years I *will* attend a Wizard World East and we will finally meet up... Gene

Does anyone know of specific examples in any collectibles field (painted art, statuary, stamps, coins, cards, etc) where a massive loss of value occurred comparable to a drop from $1000 to $40? I actually meant this to be a tongue-in-cheek counterpoint to Nina-squared's post, but I'm glad to see that people are discussing the jist of it seriously. I don't think any comics have, to date, yet crashed from $1000 to $40, but then again, until fairly recently (last decade, give or take a few years), there haven't been too many books worth more than $1000. While it is entirely possible/probable that we won't ever see a drop that extreme for comics that are valued that highly today, that's not to say that it could never happen. Sure, it won't happen if the future looks close to the recent past...I don't know about you, but I think the next 30 years is going to look very different from the past 30 years, including for the comic collecting hobby. I would add, in addition to the excellent Aircel and Valiant examples, that there are countless examples to be cited of once-valuable things falling 80-100% in value, from Dutch tulip bulbs in the 17th century to Internet stocks in 2000-2001. Back in 1989, the patch of land in Japan where the Emperor's palace is located was worth more than all the land in California combined - absolutely mind boggling. I'm quite sure it's worth nowhere near that today. Today's gold can easily be tomorrow's trash...value can be very transitory indeed...buy low, sell high...keep your eyes on the road ahead and not in the rearview mirror...ok, this is starting to sound like a string of bad fortune cookie sayings... - Gene

Where is Collector Joe I really miss you two team tagging this kind of deal!!!!!! I don't know...it's all I can do to try and take away the Kool-Aid punch bowl by myself! Gene

"There is a $40.00 comic out there right now that will sell for $1000.00 in about 20 years. I don't know which one it will be. If I did (know for sure) I'd get in line for my 10 or 20 copies. And sure, you can say it'll never happen and it will sound very much like all those 80's collectors that said Bronze Age will never be worth anything. You're in the same environment now as we were back then." There are many $1000.00 books out there now that will sell for $40.00 in about 20 years. I don't know which ones they are. If I did (know for sure), I'd sell short 10 or 20 copies of each. And sure, you can say it'll never happen and it will sound very much like all those perma-bull speculator day-traders in 1999 and 2000 that said the Nasdaq would go to 10,000 and the Dow would go to 36,000. You're in the same speculative, hope & greed-driven environment now as we were back then. Gene

I started collecting original comic art at the end of last year since I'm winding down my purchases of back issue comics. I've been focusing, for the most part, on commissions/covers/splashes/pin-ups (i.e., non-panel pages) featuring my favorite female characters, including Vampirella, Elektra, Red Sonja and Gwen Stacy, among others. Despite picking up this new collecting hobby, I'm hoping to spend less time on all of my collecting pursuits going forward...as fun as it is, I get a lot more pleasure out of doing and experiencing things than simply accumulating stuff and writing about it on message boards . Remember, it's not like you can take it with you when you die! Gene

Well, most of my all-time faves have already been pointed out (N. Adams, Steranko, Romita Sr., Sienkiewicz, '70s/'80s Byrne, '70s BWS, to name a few). A few names that haven't been brought up yet include Jose Gonzalez and Gonzalo Mayo, who did some stunning work for Warren (primarily Vampirella) in the '70s, as well as Ross Andru (oh, if only JR JR could draw ASM half as well as he could...) My favorite current artists are Greg Land (Sojourn), Jim Lee (Batman) and Alex Maleev (Daredevil). Gene

When I got that gut feeling about my mutual funds, my banker talked me out of switching too. All I know is that my parents are the perfect contrary indicator when it comes to investments. Whether it was precious metals and oil in 1980, Japanese stocks in 1989 ("The Japanese are taking over the world." - Gene's mom in 1989), real estate just before the 1990 recession (I guess they eventually did OK on that) or tech stocks just before the bubble burst ("You will never regret investing in tech stocks" - Gene's mom in 1999), they seem to have an uncanny knack of buying just before it hits the fan. They haven't gotten bullish yet on comics, so you bulls out there might be safe for now. However, they are currently raging bulls on Southern California real estate prices...look for California to fall into the Pacific Ocean in the not-too-distant future. Gene

I may be wrong as I've never experienced a major crash besides the current stock market losses I endured (like most) over the past 2 years... but I feel IF I sense a significant weakening, there is time to trade down... The problem I see with this is (a) it's tough to tell the difference between a dip and a major correction until after the fact and (b) sometimes the downswing can occur too quickly for you to do anything about it. A good example can be found in the Miller Daredevil books. For a while, every 9.8 and many 9.6s were selling for hundreds of dollars...then prices started softening, and as we approached the movie release date, everybody scrambled to sell while the getting was still good. What we got was as much as a 90+% correction in some prices in no time flat. There was one 2 week period in January or February where some prices were literally chopped in half. I know this because I was trying to sell off some dupes during this period and the market would not let me out at any decent price - in fact, I'm still holding some of these books (yes, the market got the better of me in this instance). With so many books trading hands through on-line transactions, the CGC market has become virtually a real-time, 24-hour marketplace. Price trends can turn on a dime and liquidity can evaporate just when you need it the most. Just something to consider. Gene

I don't necessarily buy the argument of many on this board that gold/silver/bronze age comics won't be wanted by collectors in 30 years (due to changing demographics of the collector base) I don't think anybody on the Board is making this argument. What I, and others, have said, though, is that we believe that there will be less demand in the future than in the current uber-speculative environment and less willingness to shell out the big $$$ from people who were not indoctrinated into the comics hobby when it actually was a thriving hobby. There is a huge difference. Gene

I know most people on this Board are capitalists who aren't opposed to making a buck or two, but it seems like we're getting one of these "what comics to invest in?" type threads almost every day now. I don't think we even had this kind of speculative froth when people were shelling out an arm and a leg for CGC books at all-time high prices (for most books) a year ago at the height of the Spidey movie/CGC mania. What gives? Is it because many books are selling for a fraction of what they used to? Is it because of the DD-X2-Hulk movie mania trifecta? Is it because people have become so disillusioned by the economy and traditional investments like stocks and bonds? I think even the most ardent bulls must realize that it is not a good sign when people talk more about what's printed on the CGC label or published in the CGC census than what's actually printed on the pages of a comic. Gene

I think the 1st (ME) Ghost Rider would be a hoot. Also would like to see Moon Knight, Dazzler and The Heap. Moon Knight, definitely! That character could be tremendous on the big screen. The Heap...I loved the 1980s revamp of Airboy and think that would make an awesome movie (featuring plenty of Heap, of course). Heck, make it a comic again while you're at it! We need more non-superhero fare these days... Gene

Jon Sable, Freelance Dreadstar Ronin Sojourn Vampirella (something better than that low budget version from the mid-90s) American Century Sgt. Fury and his Howling Commandos Tomb of Dracula Hmmm...a very low "spandex quotient" here. I guess I'd rather get my super-hero fix from comics than movies. Gene

Just to play Devil's Advocate here (please excuse the flippancy in advance): Who in their right mind would not want to capitalize on Wolvie's and the Hulk's popularity and sell 10 or 20 or 30 copies of this book... Well, on the other hand, one could also ask, "who in their right mind would pay thousands of dollars for a not-so-uncommon, even in grade, book from late 1974?" But, more to the point, if everyone thinks this book is destined for even further greatness, maybe the holders are, well, holding out for higher prices. Unless a comic collector has been hiding under a rock for the last 3 years A lot of collectors probably have been hiding under a rock the last 3 years...tons of people left the hobby in the 1990s and haven't come back. And, what about the possibility that there are copies out there in huge warehouses that their owners don't even know about? As I detailed earlier, I've seen that Neat Stuff, for example, has huge stacks of pristine copies of Bronze Marvels in inventory and I'm quite sure they don't even know everything they have. 10 years ago...they were definitley not in NM condition. This whole "when did people start bagging & boarding" analysis doesn't hold water for me at all. We've all seen 9.6 and 9.8 comics from much earlier than 1974 graded 9.6 and 9.8...if they managed to survive in that condition, why couldn't a shrewd speculator have stored their Hulk 181s in a smart fashion? someone would have heard or seen another person's "100 hoarded" Hulk 181's... Well, I don't know about you, but if I had 100 hoarded Hulk 181s, I sure as hell wouldn't let anybody know about it!!! Gene

I'm just commenting on some of my observations of slowly declining prices, the shallow interest level on keys that used to enjoy deeper support, and my overall feeling in my gut that makes me more hesitant than usual when considering purchases... I fully expect this trend to continue in the medium to long-term. HOWEVER, the market has picked up noticeably since the depths of last fall. I don't know how long this will last (probably not much beyond the summer, in any case), so I used this bounce to sell more of my extraneous books on eBay and off-line last week, with overall good results. I've noticed some new buyers on eBay lately as well, which again is a short-term positive. Gene (Short-Term Bullish, Long-Term Bearish)

but I'm not so sure a 4K investment 10 years ago is worth 8K now... If you bought an S&P 500 index fund 10 years ago and had the restraint to hold it through thick and thin (and had managed to avoid the temptation to put all your money in tech stocks), you would be up about 110% plus dividends and less taxes. There is a "Rule of 72", which tells you how quickly capital doubles. Just divide your assumed rate of return into 72 and that's how long it takes for money to double. To double in 10 years, prices need to compound 72/10 = 7.2 percent per year. While this is below what you would have earned in the 1980s and 1990s, I don't see how you get that kind of return starting at the current low level of interest rates and high stock market valuations. Even if we finally get an up-year in 2003, the long-term fundamentals remain scary - too much leverage, too much capacity, too little pricing power, a collapsing dollar, rising geopolitical tensions and too little recognition of these problems. The government seems to think the best remedy for this economy is to cut taxes on the fiscal side and keep monetary policy loose on the Fed side so overleveraged consumers and businesses can become even more indebted and government deficits at all levels can balloon. This, my friends, will have catastrophic consequences later this decade, mark my words. I think it would be dangerous to assume that returns from all asset classes from this point forward will look anything like what we have seen during the secular bull market of 1982-2000. That includes returns for stocks, bonds, real estate and collectibles. For better or worse, we live in interesting and dangerous times. If the economy turns down even more (as I expect) later this decade, the last place you will want your savings is in less liquid asset classes like real estate or CGC books, IMHO. You won't see many financial planners or economists telling you this, but think about it - what else are they going to say? If they're bullish and wrong, they still have a job. If they're bearish and wrong, they're fired. Me, I don't care. You want balls? You got balls!! Gene

Hey Darth, anything is possible...the numbers may also have been padded to boost ad revenues. But, I think the crux of my hypothesis still stands - even if a very, very small percentage of a non-inflated print count have survived, that's still many multiples of the current CGC'd totals. And, even assuming that the vast majority of these are VF or lower, it again would only take a tiny fraction to be high grade to greatly multiply the current census numbers. Again, this is only a hypothesis, but perhaps a reasonable one in light of the incredibly small number of copies that have been submitted to CGC to date in the greater scheme of things. What I'm saying is that you should keep that in mind before assuming $5K or $10K is a chip shot for a 9.4 Hulk 181 in the next decade. Plus, I'm a firm believer that the higher prices rise, the more copies will make their way to the marketplace. Back in 1980, who knew that Americans owned so much silver? When the Hunt brothers put the squeeze on the market, every American was digging through their attics to find silver to sell as prices rose to previous unfathomable levels. I think only time and continued rising prices will bring out the "hidden" supply of Hulk 181s to the market...if they exist at all. Not saying that they do for sure, just waxing hypothetically. Gene

The following statements in bold are facts NOT myth or opinon: I think this is a great point, MOS. Let's ignore for now the destroyed copies that have been mentioned. 1,177 (which may be overstated due to resubmissions) out of 202,592 copies is only 1/2 of 1 percent of the print run submitted to CGC to date. Sure, I'm sure tens of thousands of copies have been destroyed over the years, but still, we are talking about over two hundred thousand copies. Furthermore, while it may have been difficult to realize in advance that Wolverine was going to be such a huge character, this is still the Hulk we are talking about here, one of Marvel's most popular and widely collected titles in the 1970s. We're not talking about some obscure Bronze title, but rather a comic that was regularly picked up by probably tens of thousands, if not a hundred thousand or more, collectors and readers each and every month. I'm not saying there must be unopened cases of this book out there, but given how widely collected the Hulk title was, might there not be a significant number of 181s still out there in collections or perhaps even buried unknowingly in dealer inventory somewhere? Even if we are talking about another 2 or 3 percent of the print run, that would still be many multiples of what has been submitted to CGC to date. Sure, most will be low to mid grade, but even a tiny percentage in high grade would dramatically boost the very small census numbers. As Murph says, there's no way to prove any of this, and only time will tell, but I don't think any of the assumptions I made above are unrealistic. Again, I repeat: only a tiny percentage of a small percentage of high grade copies need to have survived in some form, whether in dealer inventory or collections, to multiply the census numbers dramatically. Again, though, just a theory. Gene

Another Punisher movie! I hope Dolph Lundgren reprises his role! As long as they don't get some weenie like Jude Law or Josh Hartnett to do some sensitive-guy 21st century update of the Punisher (can you believe they were considering both of these guys to play Superman???), I'm OK with it! Gene

Btw, what do you think of evolving standards of grading thus lowering the amount of truly high grade copies out there.. Oh, I totally agree with you there. I was at my parents' house for the holidays (where much of collection resides) and was looking through all those books I own that used to be considered NM or better (but now are only 9.0 to 9.2!) Ah well, times change. By the way, I'm not bagging on your 181 purchase...it's a really nice copy at a lower price than some recent sales on one of the most in-demand books out there. I can certainly understand the logic of paying up for a major key...it's the logic of bidding up these semi-key books (Defenders 1, IF 1, etc.) in 9.8 to 4-figure/multiple 4-figure levels that I'm not quite grasping... Gene

Neat Stuff isn't a good example for your point..what they call a NM, or so it seems from their auctions, is usually a VF. I'm not talking about Neat Stuff's auctions, I'm talking about the size of their gargantuan warehouse inventory - much of it in pristine condition up to NM/MT 9.8. As I said, they have *huge* amounts of unread, single issues from the 1970s to the 1990s in their inventory. The room they had set up had up to 100 copies of a ton of single issues including 1970s Marvels. Unread and untouched until they decided to pull out a truckload or two for the convention - a veritable drop in the bucket of their overall inventory. As I mentioned, I bought several ASM #299s, all between 9.6 and 9.8. I bought a bunch of early 1980s Batman issues from 9.6 to 9.8 - absolutely pristine copies. I don't collect 1970s Marvels except for X-Men and ASM, but if I was a FF or Avengers collector, for example, I would have gone hog-wild opening up a stack of 50 unread copies of various issues from the mid-to-late 1970s. Don't underestimate how many copies of all comics have survived, even in grade, since at least as far back as the 1970s. I am sure Neat Stuff isn't the only dealer with millions of comics in their warehouses. Everytime I go to a convention here in NYC and see stacks and stacks of issues you wouldn't believe anybody would have hoarded, it reminds me that every single Marvel comic had a print run in the tens/hundreds of thousands (even millions for a couple of books)...is it any wonder that so many copies are still around, whether they were actively hoarded or not? Gene