Normally, I'm just a lurker and prefer to keep my opinions to myself.However, this talk of a "bubble" in the comic market and the concerns over the pricing of AF #15 has me itching to add my two cents to this discussion.Okay, though some of you might disagree, I've lived long enough to learn (the hard way) that the (4) most detrimental words to your wealth that those in power (Your Banker, Your Broker, Your Politician, Your Realtor, Your Mortgage Company, Your Government) want you to believe are these..."This Time it's Different"Gang...It's NEVER different. The bigger the boom...The bigger the bust!!!I have no doubt that if we continue on our current trajectory of price escalation, the comic market will eventually tank / bust.However, let's not let fear of the possible market bust prevent us from enjoying this bull ride while our beloved comic market is kicking . So, if we don't allow fear to control our decision, but instead utilize logic, then there are (2) important questions you should be asking yourself.1) Why has the comic market gone ballistic???2) How far / where are we in this bull market comic cycle??? Perhaps more importantly to this AF #15 board, should I be concerned about the dramatic price escalation of AF #15 across all grades.The answer to the first question (why has the comic market gone ballistic) is very simple. It's called a paradigm shift. Whenever and wherever a paradigm shift occurs (doesn't matter what industry or market), a great amount of money can be made and / or lost (depending on your point of entrance and exit).Now, if you look up the word paradigm shift in the dictionary, you'll more or less see the following definition...- A radical change in the underlying beliefs or theory.I know I'm preaching to the choir, but this is exactly what has happened to the comic industry. Gang, the comic industry is "cool". We are "it" with the X, Y, and Z generation. Not only in the US and Canada, but the comic industry and it's characters are "da bomb" across the entire globe.Collecting comics is no longer only for the introverts and the nerds, but it's growing exponentially with each and every Marvel movie that's being produced. Please...please...please...point out to me another collectible market (coins, stamps, cards, painting, cars, etc.) that is "cool", "It", "Da Bomb" which has experienced the fantastic ballistic growth our comic industry has seen the past few years. There are none. There never has been anything like this in any of the collectible markets. Period!!!Here in the Central Valley of California, we have small Mickey Mouse towns that are embracing this paradigm shift by holding Comic Cons that draws 5,000 to 10,000 or more people per day. Ten years ago, you'd be lucky to have more attendees than dealers at these shows.Now, for the 2nd part - Where are we in this comic bull market and should we be concerned about the recent dramatic / continued price increase of AF #15?
The answer is "NO" short term and "YES" long term only...IF...IF...certain other events occur in the next few years.
Why do I say "NO" short term, because it doesn't matter if we're talking about stocks, bonds, houses, collectibles, etc. What's ALWAYS...ALWAYS...true is that the most desirable, most coveted, most wanted item in that field / industry will lead the charge and provide the highest return on your investment. It goes without saying that I've just described AF #15. In other words, DO NOT be concerned that AF #15 is spearheading this bull market and pulling away from the rest of the comic pack. This is the way ALL...ALL...bull markets work.
Heck, I'll go further and state that I would be concerned if AF #15 wasn't leading this comic bull market. If your "General" isn't leading the charge, then something is definitely wrong.
Those of you that always complain about the "supply" side of AF #15 continue to miss the bigger picture and must have slept thru Economics 101. The "demand" for this book from buyers (which includes collectors, dealers, investors, institutions, etc) is just overwhelming. There isn't one single person out there reading this that doesn't want to own a copy of AF #15. At least AF #15 is "relatively" attainable for most buyers. Unlike Action #1 or Detective #27. Even if you have the funds, there is virtually "0" supply of these (2) Golden Age grails to go around.
Finally, when is the bust (bear market) going to occur?Yes, I also definitely have a strong opinion to this question. However, because I've babbled long enough, I'll go back to being a lurker and wish everyone the best of luck!!!See ya.