RockMyAmadeus

Just for fun, I went and counted all sales of TMNT #1 1st print recorded on GPA. There are: 9.0 and above - 155 8.5 and lower - 235 That's total sales, from 2002-2015. That doesn't account for resales of the same slab. That's just raw "sales events" as recorded by GPA. This doesn't include sales on ComicConnect or ComicLink, but I imagine those sales are low enough numbers to not skew the data too much. This also doesn't account for raw sales, which have is not an insubstantial figure, but cannot be known, so we'll have to set that number aside for now. That means, in nearly 14 years, there have been a total of 390 different sales events for this book slabbed...or a little more than 10% of the original print run. And, again, that doesn't account for resales of the same slab, or the same book submitted different times. When considering the raw copies vs. resales/resubmissions, it's possible it's a wash. That's roughly 30 copies on average, of various flavors, for sale every year. There were 60 sales of various flavors for the year 2014. The average price of all 60 copies sold for 2014 is $4,464, for a total of $267,847 (again, average price of all copies sold, in all flavors. Yes, I did the math.) 2014 was a banner year for TMNT in terms of sales, which includes 2 9.8s at about $15,000 each. If we consider 2015, you'll find that (so far) there have been 53 sales in all flavors, for an average price of $3,698 (total of $196,007) ...a substantial difference from 2014. As economics theorizes, if even a good quantity of those copies were to come to the market at the same time, the demand would be met, and the price would plummet. Therefore, while you're looking at potentially millions of dollars, the reality is...again...you'd have to find buyers willing to pay those millions of dollars, for us to be truly looking at millions of dollars. Now, if we were looking at 3,000 ounces of gold, that would (at current prices) be about $3.5M, and we really would be looking at millions of dollars. 3,000 ounces of gold could be absorbed without batting an eye. There are roughly 20 MILLION ounces of gold traded every single day. Finding buyers at the current price of $1069 would not be difficult at all. http://www.gata.org/node/8248 Not so much, TMNT #1 first prints.

If all copies came on the market at the same time, the value would plummet. If many copies came on the market at the same time, the value would plummet. And that's assuming all these copies even exist, much less could be sold for an average of $3,000. It's fun to speculate that the boxes would be "worth millions", but it's not realistic. If all 3275 (or thereabouts) copies came on the market at the same time, they may not even be worth $1,000,000. For the boxes to be worth millions, you'd have to have buyers willing to pay millions for them. But that's something we will never know. Sorry to throw sunshine on your rainy parade but all 3275 copies would never come to the market at once. That is correct, as I already stated here: In case I wasn't clear, that's what "that's something we will never know" means: not only will all those copies not come to market at once, not even all of those copies exist anymore. Correct. That's what makes it speculation. Even in "black Monday", there were still buyers....not *everyone* sold. No, there is potential, and speculation. There aren't millions of dollars in that picture. There's only potential, and that potential isn't likely even in the nearly impossible scenario of all extant copies coming to the market at once. It's nothing but speculation. The market for TMNT #1 is so thin, even 100 copies coming on to the market at the same time would substantively affect the value of the book. No rain. Just facts.

If all copies came on the market at the same time, the value would plummet. If many copies came on the market at the same time, the value would plummet. And that's assuming all these copies even exist, much less could be sold for an average of $3,000. It's fun to speculate that the boxes would be "worth millions", but it's not realistic. If all 3275 (or thereabouts) copies came on the market at the same time, they may not even be worth $1,000,000. For the boxes to be worth millions, you'd have to have buyers willing to pay millions for them. But that's something we will never know.

I still can't get over that 9.8 uncut #2 SS.

Ok, that's ridiculous. Just ridiculous.

this is the 4th time i sell that item . 1st time $110 , 2nd time $100 3rd #$137 (for some reason last buyer didn´t use best offer) now the price is $135 best offer so its in the price range Making an $8 offer for a $135 item is an insult so users like vikescomics who behaves like that are blocked from my list I have ethe auto reject and its good but when a buyer goes to my items and see i rejected 3 offers they can think i am a difficult seller and that´s not good for business... How can someone see this information? I've never seen it on any listing with a rejected offer - let alone now how to see someone has any offer. Pretty sure the only person who can see this is the seller-- but please share how someone could see it otherwise as I would like to know how to see this if it is possible. Also-- I personally would not read anything into how many rejected offers there were even if I could see this information. http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBidsLogin&item=131362013074&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2564 Here's an example of offer history.

Agreed. I don't believe I've ever turned down a 10% off my BIN offer. I would happily sell everything I had for 10% off my asking prices. However...a $30 offer for a $300 book is different. That is, someone offers $30 for an item, not $270.

Of course, that's not what you did at all. You didn't give your thoughts on "low bidders" (I think you mean lowballers?) You gave your thoughts on people who complain about lowballers, saying it "seemed silly to you" to complain if you have best offer and won't set auto-decline, despite the fact that there are, in fact, valid reasons for sellers to do just that. Nothing to do with saying you don't understand because you disagree with me, but that didn't stop you from making that claim, which wasn't reasonable. I don't care IF you disagree with me. I care HOW you disagree with me. Immense, tremendous difference.

Is that a reasoned reply? Is that you, trying to have an honest discussion, giving someone the benefit of the doubt, being open and willing to consider other people's points of view? Or is it you, repeating what isn't true, to score points? Shall we play games about where we stand forever?

The reasoning behind having the best offer and not setting the auto-reject has been explained before, at great and exhaustive length. If people want to call it "complaining", they either don't understand it, or don't want to understand it. The information is there; it need only be digested. But it can only be done by those willing to understand in the first place. No willingness, no understanding. This isn't some super-special, above-and-beyond heroic behavior that's being asked of potential buyers, here; it's just common courtesy. So anyone who doesn't see it your way is just unwilling to understand? No. That's not what I said. But you knew that, and aren't interested in a reasonable discussion, so...there you have it. The reasoning behind having the best offer and not setting the auto-reject has been explained before, at great and exhaustive length. If you were interested in having an honest discussion, rather than just scoring points, maybe we could get somewhere.

The reasoning behind having the best offer and not setting the auto-reject has been explained before, at great and exhaustive length. If people want to call it "complaining", they either don't understand it, or don't want to understand it. The information is there; it need only be digested. But it can only be done by those willing to understand in the first place. No willingness, no understanding. This isn't some super-special, above-and-beyond heroic behavior that's being asked of potential buyers, here; it's just common courtesy. So anyone who doesn't see it your way is just unwilling to understand? A lot of times yes. And great detail will follow to tell you why. And this, folks, is how you let your personal opinion about someone completely cloud your ability to reason. No, no, reason is NOT allowed when so-and-so says something. Nyet! Ahhh, people...

The reasoning behind having the best offer and not setting the auto-reject has been explained before, at great and exhaustive length. If people want to call it "complaining", they either don't understand it, or don't want to understand it. The information is there; it need only be digested. But it can only be done by those willing to understand in the first place. No willingness, no understanding. This isn't some super-special, above-and-beyond heroic behavior that's being asked of potential buyers, here; it's just common courtesy.

I've seen LCS owners do it to me .... but yeah-- it was a real waste of time. I think when they see you drag all those boxes in, they figure there is no way you will drag them back out. That's not the same scenario.

I've said it before: people who aren't bothered by ridiculous lowball offers either don't sell at all, or don't sell very much. When you have something for sale for $300, and FMV is in that neighborhood, $30 isn't within the realm of reasonable, and is a complete waste of time, especially when $30 is about half COST. It's a waste...of...time. If it's not a waste of the buyer's time, fine. Great. Maybe you'll hook the idjit that lists something for $2000, but will settle for $50 (real offer, by the way.) But it is a waste of the seller's time, who took the time to come up with a price and list the item, to be met with 70, 80, 90% off offers...most especially if the asking price is within the realm of FMV. It's disrespectful and contemptuous to not even bother making a reasonable offer. No one would dare do something like that in the real world, yet it abounds on eBay.

humangatan Made FOUR 83-90% off my asking price offers. Waste of time.

CGC uses the dates as they appear in the books, and some reprints (like these) don't change the original dates. One might think a tad bit of research would be in order for a professional grading company. Let's not get lost in the weeds. Publication month/year is all that matters. Reprint dates aren't even generally made public (except in cases like Bone, interestingly enough), much less have any bearing on the original publication date. For a reprint to have a new date on the label, it would have to have that new date somewhere on the book, and would probably have to be substantively different from the original (like the EC reprints of the 1970's.) Was MOS #18 5th printed in 1994? Probably. The first "DC Universe" UPC logo books have a Jan 1994 (printed in Nov 1993) cover date. But it doesn't matter, because the cover date is still Dec 92, and that didn't change. Trying to figure out the "actual date" would be a task beyond the scope of CGC. They could just hire you freelance . . . As it is, you give it to them for free. How is that possible...? As ***REDACTED*** has said, I bring "zero value here. Zero."

CGC uses the dates as they appear in the books, and some reprints (like these) don't change the original dates. One might think a tad bit of research would be in order for a professional grading company. Let's not get lost in the weeds. Publication month/year is all that matters. Reprint dates aren't even generally made public (except in cases like Bone, interestingly enough), much less have any bearing on the original publication date. For a reprint to have a new date on the label, it would have to have that new date somewhere on the book, and would probably have to be substantively different from the original (like the EC reprints of the 1970's.) Was MOS #18 5th printed in 1994? Probably. The first "DC Universe" UPC logo books have a Jan 1994 (printed in Nov 1993) cover date. But it doesn't matter, because the cover date is still Dec 92, and that didn't change. Trying to figure out the "actual date" would be a task beyond the scope of CGC.

This is a fairly demeaning thing to say to the people who bought later printings, and assumes that everyone who did so, did so just because they "missed the boat" when they had the opportunity. I wasn't alive when Lord of the Rings was first sold. Neither were you. If we buy reprints, are we "Johnny-come-latelies" who didn't have our heads on straight in time for the real thing...? No, self-evidently we are not. So, what if there was someone....like there were a lot of someones...who had nothing to do with comics, but became interested because of the media coverage surrounding Superman #75? MOS #18 had been out for weeks by then, and functionally sold out. If they are just interested in the story, why do they care if it's "not the real thing" because it's a second printing? It IS the real thing...to them. Identical in every way that matters. The 5th printing of MOS #18 was printed some time in 1994, a year or more after the 1st printing. Are those people who bought them also Johnny-come-latelies..? I don't read much of what some have been saying, but speaking for myself, I'm certainly not suggesting that, pound for pound, the 5th print should be worth more than the 1st print. That doesn't make any sense, and anyone suggesting that doesn't understand the situation. However...in this case, the reality is that supply and demand has kicked in, and because the 4th and 5th printings are substantially rarer than the first printing, the price one has to pay to obtain one has risen above what one would "normally" have to pay. It's just like anything else. Time and chance has happened to these books, and as a result, they appear to be more "celebrated" than the first printings...but that is only the appearance, not the reality. The fact that there are a 1000+ CGC 9.8 MOS #18 1st prints, and they STILL sell for $100+ on the market is a testament to the fact that the market HAS placed the "right" value on the "right" book. If there were a 1,000+ 9.8 5th prints, there is no way they would be selling for $100+. None. One should not look at only one factor...the price...and make conclusions without considering these other factors. I can't argue with most of this, since it mainly agrees with me. But... you compared my saying that reprints of MOS 18 were for the people who didn't get the real thing to you (or I) having to buy Lord of the Rings reprints. I guess I didn't realize there were two generations of people who would have missed out between 1992 and 1994. Just an (obvious) example to illustrate the point. Missing out is missing out, and doesn't necessarily mean "short bus", whether it's 30 years or 30 days. I don't know if everything I've said mainly agrees with your comments, because you said you don't understand why the 5th print is "more celebrated", or more valuable, than the first. It's not. Pound for pound, book for book, it's not. The factor is the difference in print run/extant copies/high grade copies.

Absolutely. I have up to the 14th printing. I *may* be missing the 12th. I don't know if there's a 15th, but the hardcover came out in...2008? In time for the movie? Easy to find: 1st 3rd 6th Medium: 2nd 4th 7th More difficult: 5th 8th 11th 14th Very tough: 9th 10th 12th 13th

This is a fairly demeaning thing to say to the people who bought later printings, and assumes that everyone who did so, did so just because they "missed the boat" when they had the opportunity. I wasn't alive when Lord of the Rings was first sold. Neither were you. If we buy reprints, are we "Johnny-come-latelies" who didn't have our heads on straight in time for the real thing...? No, self-evidently we are not. So, what if there was someone....like there were a lot of someones...who had nothing to do with comics, but became interested because of the media coverage surrounding Superman #75? MOS #18 had been out for weeks by then, and functionally sold out. If they are just interested in the story, why do they care if it's "not the real thing" because it's a second printing? It IS the real thing...to them. Identical in every way that matters. The 5th printing of MOS #18 was printed some time in 1994, a year or more after the 1st printing. Are those people who bought them also Johnny-come-latelies..? I don't read much of what some have been saying, but speaking for myself, I'm certainly not suggesting that, pound for pound, the 5th print should be worth more than the 1st print. That doesn't make any sense, and anyone suggesting that doesn't understand the situation. However...in this case, the reality is that supply and demand has kicked in, and because the 4th and 5th printings are substantially rarer than the first printing, the price one has to pay to obtain one has risen above what one would "normally" have to pay. It's just like anything else. Time and chance has happened to these books, and as a result, they appear to be more "celebrated" than the first printings...but that is only the appearance, not the reality. The fact that there are a 1000+ CGC 9.8 MOS #18 1st prints, and they STILL sell for $100+ on the market is a testament to the fact that the market HAS placed the "right" value on the "right" book. If there were a 1,000+ 9.8 5th prints, there is no way they would be selling for $100+. None. One should not look at only one factor...the price...and make conclusions without considering these other factors.

As I have said elsewhen, this idea of "Market capitalization," using the census and GPA is a deeply, irreparably flawed way of looking at the market. It relies on data (the census) that does not represent the market in any but the broadest, most simplest of ways. The census only tells us what has passed through CGC's doors, and it doesn't account for A. resubmissions without labels turned in or B. crackouts. It does not even begin to tell us what exists. Plus, the method relies on data...GPA...that cannot be used to make these calculations. You CAN "market cap" a stock, because, as of this moment, it will cost you $58.85 to buy a share of Wal-Mart stock, whether you buy 1 share or 1 million shares. But you CAN buy 1 million shares, right now, or at least tomorrow, assuming money wasn't an issue. You cannot buy all the CGC 9.8 copies of MOS #18, even if you wanted to, and you certainly wouldn't be able to buy them for $100 each, even with limitless resources. That renders extrapolation based on that figure totally useless. MOS #18 1st print is currently worth slabbing in high grade (9.4+.) For many years, it was not. The "reprints" aren't necessarily worth slabbing. These, and other factors, render the "market cap" method of looking at the comics market woefully inadequate.

You're placing too much emphasis on the census, for various reasons.

I disagree, for the reasons stated above. We shall see, but I don't see them as mutually exclusive, because of their radically different circumstances. This is not quite accurate. The only books of the Superman run which had more than 3 printings were Superman #75 (4) and MOS #18 (5.) Bone, on the other hand, had 5+ printings for every issue up to #7-ish, and possibly to #10. As well, there were such multiple reprintings, even up to 6 printings, of earlier Superman and Batman books from the late 80's, for inclusion in the multi-packs. There is also Turtles, which is admittedly from a slightly different era, as well as Aliens #1 (1988), which had at least 6 printings going into the early 90's. There are other examples, but those are the ones off the top. Also, that little Roman numeral will probably be the clincher. If people can readily see, from the cover alone, which is which...it makes collecting ever so much easier, and thus more appealing. And...Superman is Superman, and Bone is not. You can't tell which Bone #1 is which printing, without either memorizing the logo colors (a difficult task), or opening the book.

Part of the reason that the DOS/FFAF later printings have market demand is because of the way they were made and distributed. There were, of course, the initial reprintings based on immediate demand...the Superman #75s, for example...but several of the later printings, including the rarer ones, were made specifically for inclusion in the 2-packs, 3-packs, 20-packs, and storyline boxes. 2- and 3-packs were nothing new at the time, but storyline boxes were a uniquely early 90's invention, and DOS/FFAF proved to be quite good sellers in that format. Also new, the "20-packs (later 10)" consisting of a single month's output that were sold at Costco and the like. With the advent of storyline boxes, along with the traditional 2- and 3-packs, DC now had a way to get back into the traditional "newsstand" market, like Wal-Mart, K-Mart, Target, and others, that had declined significantly in the preceding years. And, it clearly worked, because DC and Marvel continued the program through most of the mid-90's, before the crash's effects were felt completely, and sales could no longer justify these programs. As a result of the storyline packs, DC had to have on hand a complete set to box (this was likely done by the same sub-contractor that assembled the 2- and 3-packs.) So, if they were out of, say, MOS #18 or Adventures #497....they sent an order back to the printer to print up another batch, adding the Roman numeral and different logo color, though that seems to have just been a quirk of someone making that decision at the time (the different logo color.) There were also "unofficial" packs, which also contained later printings (mainly Adventures of Superman #498 3rd printing.) (This, by the way, does much to dispel the myth that DC, Marvel, and other publishers don't warehouse books...they do, and this is an example of that.) So, the only way to get these later printings, for the most part, was through these collector packs. Since the people who bought the "collector" packs were almost universally NOT collectors (they were simply interested in reading the story) and the packs/boxes were sold in mostly NON-collector venues, and since there was a near-universal disdain for later printings that persisted for at least another decade after the fact, a perfect storm of scarcity, attrition, and interest has resulted in the demand we see now, especially in high grade. These items were not packed in any way that would prohibit damage. Though the boxes provided a measure of protection, it wasn't much, and any sort of impact to the box impacted the books as well. And, they weren't packed too tightly, and any movement resulted in rub to most or all of the books. The shrink-wrapped packs were no different, and had even less protection. Frankly, it's amazing any of these survived in high grade. There is probably not a single store, in the 23 years this story has been in existence, that has ever owned multiples of any of the later printings, except by accident. They certainly couldn't order, say, the third printing of Adventures #499, for example, and why would they? No one wanted them. So, of course, they wouldn't have ever been in store stock, again, except by accident, and there certainly wouldn't have been any desire to preserve them in any meaningful way. So, the main source we have for high grade comics of the last 40 years...unsold store stock...was never a factor with these. So, the only source for these later printings was in packs and boxes that people mostly bought to mostly read (and thus, damage), there was little done to preserve them, and quite possibly not a single person cared, if they even noticed...a situation that remained true for almost two decades. It is therefore quite an accident of history that any of these survived at all, and a testament to the mentality of the collector that we have unopened boxes of these still lying around to this day (though they are rapidly disappearing as well.) For the last 25 years, the theory has been to save EVERYTHING, on the chance that something might click, someday, which is why anything even tangentially related to comics has been preserved. Had these been books sold in the 1930's through 1950's, it's likely we would be talking about fragments of rumors. How many comics have come, gone, and disappeared into the ether, with not even a rumor of their existence? To my knowledge, the DOS/FFAF boxes could contain any printings except the final printings of FFAF, which I *believe* (but would be happy to be corrected) were only available through the 2- and 3-packs. They are, of course, the rarest of the bunch (MOS #20 2nd, Action #686 2nd, Adventures #499 3rd [there is no second printing known of this book!] and Superman #77 3rd.) This is unlike the situation with Bone, which was only reprinted to order, and was continually solicited throughout the 90's for "the latest printing" in Previews. As well, Bone #1 had a (reported) print run of only 3,000 copies, was an "Independent", and though it certainly achieved after-market notoriety, the near-constant availability of later printings, a base composed mostly of readers, rather than collectors, has created quite a divergent path between the two scenarios. You could always find "the latest printing" of Bone at a local store, and if you couldn't, you could simply ask for it to be ordered, and it showed up. Now...high grade examples of Bone later printings are quite scarce...but there's really not too much demand on a collector basis for those books, and may not be.

There was, but it was in its infancy. It had been around since 1974-ish. Marvel began testing the efficacy of Direct market cover markings beginning with the Feb, 1977 cover dated issues, and there are Direct market versions of Star Wars.