Charleybrown

42 minutes ago, Subby1938 said:

Th a final piece on that cgc 6.5 was $11800.00 US the seller was kind enough to reveal that.... damn!

Anyone could list a mid grade copy and name their price right now. Smart guy. He said he picked it up 5yrs ago for 2700.00.

8 minutes ago, valiantman said:

I didn't think I'd have to specific biggest COMIC character in the past 45 years on the CGC messageboard, but since you're off on a tangent, I'll clarify.  Where did I say IP?

There is no 36-year rule.  We're talking about TMNT #1 right now, and right now it is 36 years old.

Here's a ridiculous statement:  "None of those books you cited inflated in price by double after hitting the 36 year mark in the middle of a pandemic induced collectibles boom."

Name another pandemic... I'll wait. 

What are you even talking about?

You just said biggest property in the last 45 years, so im assuming you meant IP. There are also Star Wars comic books. 

"Here's a ridiculous statement:  "None of those books you cited inflated in price by double after hitting the 36 year mark in the middle of a pandemic induced collectibles boom." Followed by name another pandemic

That was sarcasm and you made my point for me.

You mention how its the perfect storm for TMNT but its not just TMNT experiencing a price spike. There is serious asset price inflation which is spilling over into the collectibles market. Sports cards, magic cards, comics, toys...throw a dart and everything is spiking.  And it will come back down to earth. 

1 minute ago, Kalel38 said:

A 9.6 selling for 18k!!! while a 7.5 selling for 12,500 just this month.. Hold my soda while I eat my popcorn and wait for that massive collapse and drop  

The point was when the stock market dropped like a rock people weren’t paying top dollar. 

2 minutes ago, ADAMANTIUM said:

When the demand is still higher than the supply but no one can any longer afford the book..... it will level, the demand will still be higher but won't translate to higher prices....

Thats basically where im at. I can easily afford a 9.6-9.8 but im not going to pay inflated prices. For F sakes there was. 9.6 that sold for 18k in march. Also the weird price movement with the 9.8 last year tells me some weird stuff might be going on. Im not saying I know what it is or if its market manipulation but that is one big drop. 

2 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Well, the market is still down if you had invested into some of the travel related stocks like the airlines or the cruise ship companies.  

Then again, if you had invested into super high P/E companies like Tesla or Shopify when they bottomed out in March, you would be laughing and dancing all the way to the bank.   

I’m just talking about the indices not individual stocks. But yes some people are having fun right now. One of the reasons I’m willing to slightly overpay for a nice copy but not gonna pay stupid prices which is what we’re seeing now.

14 minutes ago, LDarkseid1 said:

I don’t think one person here has said that TMNT 1 or any comic for that matter will be an exception to a price correction 🤔, atleast not me. And I acknowledge that many big comics have leveled off over the years. I’ve said I think several times in this thread I don’t disagree there may end up being a bigger market wide price correction, however I also feel it may not happen. For the sheer fact once again that I’ve heard it for 10 years and still waiting for it to happen. So I’m not as confident as you or others are that this prophesied price correction is 100% around the corner, but also saying I won’t be surprised if it does. I definitely think the routine content for these massive properties helps comics and keeps them in a better place from this possible or dare I say likely price correction, but who knows maybe that won’t make a difference ultimately.

You’re also not mentioning the real push behind all of this...the federal reserve printing machine. We’ve been printing money since 2008. We just shut down the entire US economy and were in a recession yet asset prices are still inflated and were almost back to all time highs. I had a high net worth individual who owed me 55k Ask if he could Go on a long term payment plan because the market dropped in March. He’s finally getting around to paying me off now that the stock market has regained all losses. If the stock market drops again you might see a 9.6 first print sell for 18k just like it did in March this year.

3 hours ago, valiantman said:

True, but we've got thousands of collectors paying $200 - $1,000 for the variants of first appearances of characters printed in the past three years (or the past three months) who have done nothing.

Characters like Virus, Knull, Punchline, etc., etc., etc., are as nothing as it gets and there's just as much money combined in the bubbles over those books. 

There are true market manipulations, speculations, and unsustainable hype all over this industry right now for characters with zero history or for issues which have no significance. 

There's a $20,000+ variant of the 667th issue Spider-Man from 2011 that is valued based on literally nothing-at-all. But it's rare, right? Valuable-just-because-its-rare-and-no-other-reason is moronic, there will always be rarer books/cards/coins printed, all the way down to unique books, then they'll put gold on a unique book, then they'll make the whole book out of gold, then they'll dip the gold in platinum and then die cut the cover and place an actual radioactive spider in the center in lucite).  Rare-and-that's-all is the worst reason to buy anything.

TMNT is easily the biggest property in the past 45 years, possibly bigger than EVERY character since Spider-Man (58 years ago), and there will never be more than 3,300 first printings.  There are more than 3,300 copies of Amazing Fantasy #15 already CGC graded.

"Ninja turtles" are better known than Wolverine, and there are more copies of Incredible Hulk #181 already CGC graded 9.4 or higher than ALL of the CGC graded copies of TMNT #1.

TMNT #1 is the "perfect storm" of comic books - known low print, 36 years old, black cover, oversized book, not-sold-in-stores, reprinted immediately, household name, many movies and cartoons and toys, decades of popularity, all starting from one specific comic book.

Would it have been a bad idea to "invest" in Amazing Fantasy #15 in 1998?  It was 36 years old.

Would it have been a bad idea to "invest" in Action Comics #1 in 1974?  It was 36 years old.

Would it have been a bad idea to "invest" in Incredible Hulk #181 in 2010?  it was 36 years old.

TMNT #1 is 36 years old.  Waiting for it to drop?  Good luck.

Easily the biggest in the last 45yrs? Bigger than Star Wars the biggest Ip of all time? Star Wars experienced a boom in 2012 thanks to the Disney catalyst and now prices (for toys) are normalizing after a small correction. Also I wasn’t familiar with the 36 year rule! None of those books you cited inflated in price by double after hitting the 36 year mark in the middle of a pandemic induced collectibles boom.

8 minutes ago, manetteska said:

Is it on RallyRd yet?

That’s a great investment vehicle. You get to own fractional shares at top of the market prices and pay management fees, storage and maintenance fees and can only liquidate quarterly( which they apparently make it hard to do). It’s hard to believe people fall for such a scam in 2020. There’s another one called mythic markets and it’s the same thing. I’m surprised it’s not owned and operated by Tai Lopez.

3 hours ago, GM8 said:

Lots of emotions going on. Lots of posts too, this is the most action this thread has seen in a long time. I don't follow other discussions (arguments) about hot books that much but I suspect its probably similar with the wide range of responses. I prefer this to the recent past with the schadenfreude of the 90K book slinking back to 50-60K. That really brought out the niceness in a few unmentionables.

It's healthy to have a variety of opinions. People can get hurt speculating on books and thinking they only go up. Its fun to get caught up in the hype but if you cant afford to lose money, comics arent the best investment. Ive been collecting the toys for a long time and have built a nice collection. I sold my first 10 figures fan club flyer set  for 18k a couple of months ago but still have a ton of stuff. I never bought the book because Im in my late 30's and never had a connection with it. It's very different from all of the other turtles IP so im not sure kids growing up with the turtles today are going to want to pay up for something they really have no connection to. When we were kids and the turtles toys came out Turtles were huge! Now theyre just another toy in a sea of saturated toy aisles. The world is a very different place than it was in the 80's and 90's. 

There's also speculation and bubbles appearing in a variety of collectible markets. I dont collect Pokemon but it is 10xing right now. Boxes that people thought were garbage are selling for huge premiums out of nowhere. Same thing with Magic the gathering, comic books, toys, and even first edition books. People are bored at home with nothing to do and weak hands are entering these markets. Im a victim of the hype and suddenly found myself wanting a higher graded copy of tmnt 1 first print to supplant my 7.0 but after coming here it has been a sobering experience lol. 

Congrats to all the buyers that got in early on a TMNT first print. Its fun to see a book you own appreciate so quickly but be aware that market manipulation, speculation, and hype can drop a book as fast as it can go up. 

1 minute ago, LDarkseid1 said:

To be fair, I’ve heard the “comics are due for a price correct in x years” for soo many years now lol. Not saying you are wrong, it’s just I keep hearing it year after year after year, for roughly 10 years now. And nothing has changed. Seems to me that opinion has become many collectors/dealers self fulfilling prophecy that it simply needs to and will happen. I’m just not as sure.

You have to ask the question...why has there been a price increase? The marvel cinematic universe. Will that continue to be the case? There needs to be another catalyst for tmnt and marvel for prices to keep going up. There is a long overdue correction needed but no one can time it perfectly. I was looking for another first print tmnt but I’ll wait for Better prices. If I’m wrong and still want it then it’ll be there For sale. For now I’ll enjoy my measly 7.0

Just now, Kalel38 said:

And by the way yes.. Tmnt #1 first print is the Action comics or Af 15 of the copper era. You can dispute that til u see a sat night hooker in church on a Sunday morning 

I’m not putting the book down. It’s a great book but the price spike is not sustainable. That’s all I’m saying and it’s just an opinion.

5 minutes ago, Kalel38 said:

Let’s just say when someone missed the boat when Isac Hays was serving the Bloody Mary’s they get really bitter when we’re all getting hammered and happy while the dock is empty and it says maybe next time 

Lol I could buy one any day of the week...no one is missing out. I just came to the forum and saw the circle jerk and thought I’d inject some logic. When people start saying tmnt is like AC 1 or det 27 those are I Sam levels of retardation.

2 minutes ago, ADAMANTIUM said:

Lol just lost my patience not my temper, this is the only thread with productive sales and people generally excited about the hobby. Disappointed in debbie downers, not for casting doubts, but it trough me off kilter, my apologies.....

Patience!

So you’re saying you only want to hear opinions that discuss the book going up in price indefinitely? 

1 minute ago, pubmonkey said:

It’s way out of context and there is too much sarcasm to see that in a positive way...

1 minute ago, Kalel38 said:

Seems to me someone is not happy with there grade they have and can’t find a higher one and is now shell shocked!! To say the least on someone not willing to sell 👏👏

Nah I can live with it. I didnt need to have one last year so I can live with the one I have for the time being. Ive been impulsive in the past but Ive seen this rodeo one or two times. It becomes a circle jerk amongst speculators that think the book will keep going up and they keep telling each other that. The people with brains are selling and collecting a profit if they got in early. Ill just wait for it to come down and who knows I may not want one in a few years

2 minutes ago, pubmonkey said:

I’m not sure why you had to add what you did about BLM and I resent that you bring that attitude to our forum...

I was saying it in a positive way like we should all bend the knee and give our comics and possessions up to atone for our sins!

11 minutes ago, Subby1938 said:

The turtles will not be relevant in 20-30 years . The generations that grew up with them will be old and they won’t matter 

 

don’t ever compare tmnt with Batman , superman or Spiderman as those characters have been touching generation after generation . The turtles have not . As a matter fact nobody gave  about them in late 90s to early 2000s they virtually disappeared and they have not been strong in modern times either with new  movies and other advertising . It’s a hard book to find but very inflated markets right now I’m staying clear of this mess.

Thats spot on...I think I will also steer clear. Ill wait to get a 9.6 for under 30 in a few years. Especially with all of this BLM stuff going on. Eventually were gonna have to give up our comics as reparations!!

7 minutes ago, Kalel38 said:

Look what hulk 181 did a few years ago it went crazy for months doubling in prices and now stabilised. Every book does but the thing some collectors don't realise is this TMNT 1 first print was extremely low which is like Action comics 1 of our time to,say the least. And any grade that is over 9.0 is scarce. Supply and demand is what prompted this book and will continue to do so as supply's are not enough to keep up with demand which is why the first prints are fetching incredible prices. Next best thing is the second print to 3rd..All tides lift all ships 

Eventually the tide comes in...the second and third print speculation is purely that. People paying a premium for 2nd and 3rd prints will be getting hosed like Marcellus in Pulp fiction, ball gag and all. Its nice to get one if you cant afford a first print but its almost like people paying thousands of dollars for opened graded video games. 

4 minutes ago, Kalel38 said:

If it's not a good investment Charlie then why did u post looking for a 8.0-9.6 TMNT 1... We all know this TMNT 1 is a grail a white whale and there is a huge following to the Turtles as there is to Spider-Man.. It's like saying who's going to care about Batman in 10-20yrs that's the most absurd thing I would have to say also.. Every collector has a new one behind them and if someone is willing to spend 20-50k for a book today who is to stop someome from spending 100k no one.. Action comics 1 went over and beyond a million over 8yrs ago and who would have thought it would no one. There is no limit when it comes who and how much a collector is willing to spend its all relevant to what a person has and is willing to spend.. So yes the ones who got in early are the lucky ones...

Im not buying it as an investment. I have a first print now but would like another nicer copy. I came here to see if anyone was selling any copies and I see everyone saying its going to be the next AF 15 or Action Comics 1 lol. Action Comics 1 is 80yrs old. People were not collecting books back then. Look at how many high graded copies of TMNT there are? I have disposable income to drop on another copy but do i think its a sound investment? Hell No. I could do a lot of other things with 20-50k that would be 100x more financially sound than hold on to a comic for 10yrs. My AMD, Amazon, and Alibaba stock that I bought a few years ago is doing slightly better than TMNT 1! Is it an awesome collectible and an iconic piece of comic book history? hell yes!

4 minutes ago, Kalel38 said:

Who's going to care about the turtles in 10-20yrs?? The ones who,have a first print and the ones who missed out .. Drop the mic....

You can care about them. I will as well but people are talking about this book like its going to keep going up and up after going up 100% in a matter of months

12 minutes ago, pubmonkey said:

Me for one, my 5 and 7 yr old kids, pretty much all their friends, society in general....

Thats all possible but what makes you think kids growing up today are going to be connected to a comic book that they never read and will want to spend a ton of money to get it? Thats the ten thousand dollar question. i think the answer is they wont. Im just a rich guy buying dumb mess. I dont think this is a good investment at this point. Anyone with brains is selling into this market.

1 minute ago, pubmonkey said:

This is my opinion too... 

1st prints will continue to rise but will never come back down to even today’s prices

2nd prints are going to see a big bump soon, there just aren’t enough of them in high grade.

3rd prints will settle but have a little way to go. 

 

All comic books are due for a correction. Not saying in the near term but definitely in the next 5-10yrs. Also, the stock market is on a tear thanks to endless money printing. We shut down the economy and there hasnt been any real pain felt in the streets. To say that theyll never come back down to today's prices..who is going to care about tmnt in 10-20 yrs? 

7 minutes ago, Kalel38 said:

9.4 first print selling for 4,125 in 2010 and today prob over 30k 2020.. 10yrs is something u can be shocked at but yet prob not.. Superman 1 1.8 sold for 21,000 in 2012 and yet a 1.8 would get u over 100k today.. 

I was offered a 9.4 for 26k privately. Signed which is not my forte. Id pay 26 for an unsigned.

It’s rare but not rare for high grade. I think the tide will come in when the free money stops getting printed. I’ll just wait on the other side when people are forced to sell.

I just picked up a 7.0 for 9600.00...looking for a higher graded one still. I offered someone a decent amount for a 9.0 and they declined.

1 hour ago, mattn792 said:

I think you can request an eBay member’s contact info through the site, just need to fill out a recaptcha block.

That feature no longer works but thanks for mentioning it.