Pantodude

I was going to explain why, but it's just so explosive.

Joe Simon and Jack Kirby story and art to same

I've posted this before elsewhere but had forgotten about this cool thread (which morphed into a not-just-top-10 thread eventually!). It's less likely to be forgotten here, and being so rare could be among top ten rarest at least! Interior in the vein of Hooey Annual example posted above, i.e., oh la la (risquee!) stuff, as opposed to a comic book.

Bumping with the strong result for the BB28 CGC 5.5 W last night on CL for $5788. For a SA mega key, BB28 is relatively uncommon, and for this issue, anything over C/OW pages is particularly uncommon considering it's a SA book. BRAVE AND THE BOLD #28, CGC 5.5 FN- - THE AUCTION HAS ENDED 1960, Justice League 1st appearance! Current Bid: $5,788 Number Of Bids: 54 Add to WantList [Sell One Of These] Type of Holder: Universal Degree Of Restoration: Unrestored Publisher: D.C. Comics Page Quality: White Pages End Date: 10/24/2022 10:59:10 PM

Folks, the Avengers #4 cgc 6.5 final bid was $3020. You need to refresh the page after the auction ends! Here, an additional 6 bids at the end. AVENGERS #4, CGC 6.5 FN+ - THE AUCTION HAS ENDED 1964, 1st Silver Age Captain America & Origin! Death of Bucky Revealed. Classic Kirby Cover. Current Bid: $3,020 Number Of Bids: 41

Single-issue titles (one-offs) are last issues, too! ALL the Ages had this phenomenon, and here are some I have for each Age in alphabetical order. Let's kick it off with our hobby's very first such book, which also happens to be the book that started it all in the Victorian Age: 1841 1943 1975 1948 1968 1983 1937 1940 2011

There are no Thor #128 UKPVs on CGC census. A bit surprised by that b/c 289 were slabbed. I expected at least 5 or so based on the prevailing cents/pence ratios on the census, but also b/c of it's slab-worthy cover.

Right, I noted this a month ago here regarding some early ASMs, in connection w/ a FF1 sale. Folks sticking w/ the familiar in these volatile times, more than usual perhaps. Interesting times ahead, what w/ the ongoing pandemic-related correction, plus any impact of the looming recession. Hopefully everything makes more sense (and cents!) 2-3 years from now.

There are big-boy books from all eras that could appreciate over time, perhaps even significantly (a good bet, historically!). For folks who insist on maximizing their net gain from the eventual sale of such books, it makes cents to have such books slabbed like yesterday. If you submit for slabbing now and sell now (well, now-ish after the inevitable delay in getting the books back), slabbed books generally fare significantly better than raws on resale. If you instead wait to both slab and sell later, same expectation: you'll fare better selling slabs, but now you must also add the cost of grading what could have become a much more expensive book as a percentage of FMV. Maybe this is less compelling, for lack of a better word, for non-big boy books? I don't like extra costs, but I assume folks don't mind paying for a service if it's beneficial, as grading has proven to be. And if it's a definite that they want to maximize net gains on sale day (and w/ the least hassle and delay to boot), it seems like grading sooner (like yesterday!) rather than later is the way to go. And that's before factoring in the planning benefit, during all those years, of having the more determinable FMV of slabbed books instead of the more abstract potential FMV of raw books. Even putting aside the prospect of appreciation and thus greater slabbing costs down the road, there is peace of mind to consider. Now that we are going through some potentially protracted volatility, some folks, perhaps more so than in prior years, might prefer to have more concrete info about their books (as by slabbing) instead of sitting on a nest of unhatched eggs, so to speak.

Try selling that to the HORRIFIED woman on the cover!

Sometimes it seems like many posters entered the hobby just the past few years and are otherwise oblivious of IH181's history, engaging in knee-jerk reactions. Even if we were to disregard the past two years as having been due to anomalous pandemic-related spending, there is nothing to suggest that IH181 won't continue its steady rise in value since 2010. Yes, there has been a pandemic-related correction (to MANY books), and now also a looming recession, and yet the fact remains that as of today IH181 has significantly outperformed many (if not most) of those SA DC keys and GA keys since 2010, constantly defying the naysayers. I'm not taking sides; just pointing out the facts. Strong has been the demand for this one! So pre-pandemic, the verdict looked pretty clear that IH181 was a great long-term investment, despite the relatively large supply, due to the very high demand for this book. It may very well still be a great long-term investment. We shouldn't get caught up in this chaotic moment of the past two and next two years. We may need to ride out the next two or three years before revisiting this issue.

Keston's a GA guy. But from his recent vids, appears Keston appreciates rarity in general. I saw his Avengers #1 was a UKPV.

This book has 10 on the census. But as it is statistically likely that at least one of them is a resub without removal of the prior cert from the cenus, we can be confident there are less than 10. So, w/o further ado, ....

But it's been over a week w/o a book posted, so....

Now some sunshine to balance out the gray! An Incredible Hulk #1 CGC 3.0 OW/W U.K. Price Variant sold for $19,375 earlier this month, followed few days later by a cents CGC 3.0 W that sold for $20,400, both on Heritage. Until the next one, how about a ray of sunshine from the history books! IH#1 actually has some history of UKPVs outperforming cents versions in both lower and higher grades. Back in Sept 2016, an IH#1 CGC 7.5 OW/W UKPV sold for $40K, higher than both the then-most-recent cents CGC 7.5 White-pager sale at $38K in May and the next cents CGC 7.5 OW sale at $37.5K in December 2016. About a 5% premium over both cents books. And here's another from 2016. In August 2016, a 2.5 UKPV sold for $7,269 when a cents 2.5 was between $5,600 (Oct 2015) and $6,400 (Mar 2017), the only cents CGC 2.5 sales around Aug2016. That translated into a more significant premium for the UKPVs, about 20% on average. But then again, in that 2016 timeframe, a 7.0 UKPV didn't fare as well, so there's the inconsistency we expected in prior years. Overall, interesting.

Tiger girl in a tree to tiger-like girl on a tiger!

At the very least, recent appearances in cartoons, shows, movies, etc., both confirms and enhances the character's continuing relevance in pop culture, especially for characters who have been MIA since their comic book appearances. Out of sight, out of mind? But if in sight, more likely to get on someone's want-list radar. Like Moon Knight in BA? Or the Watcher in SA? By contrast, books involving characters/franchises who have been and remain pop culture icons, like Scooby Doo or Star Trek, might remain expensive with little volatility despite the announcement of a new cartoon or show (in Scooby Doo #1's case) or series/movie (in Star Trek #1's case). They don't need the hype and are less affected by it because of proven, enduring popularity, coupled with relative scarcity. There are tons of examples for this.

If you are relying on an actual change in the money supply for your argument, Houston, we have a problem. The money supply remains higher now than it was end of 2021! Did you even look at your own chart? Even now, 10 months after supposed tapering by the Fed, it remains as high as it's ever been (in the $21.75 trillion range). So it looks like the money supply will remain well above early 2020 money supply levels, if not near the peak, for quite some time. One could argue these enduring high money supply levels will coax folks to continue spending. Here's a better chart with specific numbers through August: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m2

Yes, very interesting seeing that. But GA keys were much less susceptible to the spec and flipping phenomenon, or even the boredom and unused vacation $ phenomenon, so we should expect less of a correction, if any on that front. A larger proportion of the new participants focused on SA and more recent (younger crowd than the typical comic collector?). If so, to the extent THEIR pandemic-related spending is correcting, SA/BA/CA should have been impacted more. Add to that greater supply compared to GA books, that could explain the rest. The GA keys community, while smaller in participants, has also always been stronger (wealthier, on avg, than average comic collector) and less prone to volatility (due to relative scarcity but also their being better at valuing stuff with less regard to hype). It could be that, seeing all this increased participation as of late 2020, they increased their spending on GA stuff preemptively to grab books before the new crowd did. Because GA books are scarce, that could easily explain both their appreciation and ability to hold (and even continue to build upon) the gains now. And that’s before even considering any enduring increase in the # of GA collectors/investors! So it didn’t surprise me. I do think there are new, higher floors (compared to pre-September 2020) for most vintage keys, be it from GA, SA, BA, or CA. Let's hope those floors are sturdy enough to weather the coming storm! Historically at least, as some noted, there may be good reason for optimism.

As for many SA keys losing 1/3 of value in past six months, as I mentioned above, we need to disect the loss -- how much of it due to pandemic-related correction vs recession-related correction. Even as overall spending is impacted, depending on that mysterious transformation (and how lasting) in our hobby the past two years, much of the remaining appreciation could stick. Many members, including vets, expected that we have a new floor (as yet unknown) on values of vintage keys. There might have been a permanent increase in (1) this hobby’s participants, (2) the perceived value of vintage comics relative to other asset classes due to a long overdue catching up (e.g., folks realized that if mere cards were fetching more $, then ….), (3) larger proportion of books now residing in long-term PCs, etc. If so, the organic rate of return could have increased to reflect such new supply/demand reality, even as spending cools. That could explain why books like FF48 and FF49, and X1, AF15, and JIM83, remain way up since August 2020 compared to other stock indices and gold. In my example, I used a very conservative “hype-free” estimate for the organic return since August 2020, which assumed mostly static supply/demand. But if many more people are involved in the vintage comic market today compared to pre-August 2020, supply will be relatively tighter today, perhaps enough to offset any broader economy-related dampening in demand. Vintage comic keys have definitely entered the minds of many, many more people as an alternative investment, hobby, art form (or even chest-thumping), gift choice, etc., than previously, while their supply has remained relatively fixed.

Before you knock comics as recession safe-havens, we need to make sure we are focusing on the correct gains. Of course, easier to do with a longer-term perspective. FF48 and FF49 have given back some of the (in hindsight at least partially speculative, fiscal-excess induced) gain since the pandemic, like a lot of asset classes. But unlike the stock market (be it S&P 500, Dow, and even Nasdaq), SA, BA and even CA keys are still way up from their 2020 averages. Because someone referenced them, let's look at FF48 and FF49, which didn't start spiking unitl Sept/Oct 2020. This discussion must exclude books bought post-August 2020, which might not fare as well in relative terms, because I am trying to exclude pandemic-related shenanigans. I don't think all of the post-August 2020 gains are suspect, and it likely varies by era and issue of book anyway, but whatever proportion that is, it would likely muddy this discussion, so let's keep it simple. FF48 in 6.0 sold this month for $2880 and the 90-day avg is $3,139 (5 sales), i.e., still an 83% gain from the 2020 avg of $1718 (43 sales). In case you are wondering, the pre-spike 6.0 FF48 average on 8/31/20 was $1706. FF49 in 6.0 sold this month for $1625 and the 90-day avg is $1763, i.e., still a 143% gain from the 2020 avg of $727. ($800 pre-spike 6.0 FF49 avg on 8/31/20). Compare that to the stock indices. Since mid-2019, the approximate gains from the S&P500, Dow, and Nasdaq have been 20%, 10%, and 35%, respectively. So, to be fair to the recession-proof [key] comics hypothesis, we should at least wait until prices dip (if ever) to the 2020 averages, perhaps adjusted through 2022 assuming some hype-free, organic growth rate. This would likely exclude the impact of any wacky spending since then. For the sake of argument, let's say a 6.0 FF48 and 6.0 FF49 would have gone from $1706 to $1850 today, and $800 to $865 today, respectively (a conservative and possibly organic-like 8% increase since Aug2020). Based on the 6.0 FF48's 90-day avg of $3,139 and the 6.0 FF49's 90-day avg of $1763, these books remain way above the hype-free estimates for 2022. Time will tell whether these books are recession-proof, but so far, and despite corrections to date due to pandemic shenanigans or recession fears (likely both), they are certainly looking better than the main stock indices since 2020, and way better than THE traditional haven of gold, which is at $1650/oz today compared to about $1890/oz on 8/31/20. Edit: I should say "whether these books continue to be recession-proof," b/c apparently, based on the many threads (old and new) that have addressed it on these boards, vintage keys have been historically. Vets here should know their stuff [presumably ].

11/17-11/18