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drmanhattanite

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Posts posted by drmanhattanite

    THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB

    in Silver Age Comic Books

    Posted · Edited by drmanhattanite

    2 hours ago, jeffreyk said:

    GPA shows a sale of a 4.0 for 53,500 on May 16th.  I don't think the book is slowing.

     

    really? from 53500 to 40 isnt slowing?? sure it may not be a pristine 4.0, but a difference ~20% is fine based on the appearance for the same grade? doesn't seem right

    What comic does CGC note as 1st App of Kate Bishop as Hawkeye

    in Modern Age Comic Books

    Posted

    On 4/6/2021 at 11:43 AM, ImAWookie said:

    I'm seeing lots of different information around at the moment.

    eBay is full of Young Avengers Presents Hawkeye as 1st app. FANDOM says it's Young Avengers #12.

    I've seen a CGC of YA #12 that says 1st app of Speed and no mention of Kate Bishop and I've seen a CGC of YAP Hawkeye that just says Hawkeye.

    Any idea?

    Buy YOUNG AVENGERS #1. That's THE book you want for her and the others. 

    Value of UK price variant SA grails

    in Silver Age Comic Books

    Posted

    25 minutes ago, Pantodude said:

    Yes, I mentioned the $29K sale (but I used the actual $28.5K figure, so same sale).  I was not aware of the FF5 sale on Comic-Link (thanks), and maybe the bidders tonight didn't either?    The obvious distinguishing feature w/ FF5 prices is that it is unprecedented for a villain intro book to approach, let alone surpass, the values of superhero intro books, and JIM#83 is a mega-key superhero intro book.  So I wonder whether wary bidders would have bid no more for a regular cents 7.5 and 3.0 than the UKPVs tonight.  Too bad the auction didn't include either.   Oh well.  

    agreed. can FF5 sustain this growth, as a villain book? I think so, since Doom is a legendary villain but also can be presented as a Loki-esque antihero. So that gray zone may propel FF5 to grow like a blue chip hero key??

    Value of UK price variant SA grails

    in Silver Age Comic Books

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Pantodude said:

    Some long-ish thoughts.  I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss the legitimacy of the $40K for the signature series of the regular cents version of X-Men #1 in grade 6.0.  That $40K took place on 3/28, close in time to the non-SS 5.5 that sold for $32.5K on 3/23 (which you did not mention).  Also, the $23.5K for the non-SS regular cents version was on 3/17.  A week or two might as well be months in this rapidly evolving market for keys.  The fact that the higher valuations were more recent could mean that X-Men #1 remains on an uptick, consistent with all the threads on that subject.  So the $40K for the regular cents 6.0 SS could be legit, at least as legit as any of the other appreciation we have seen this past year for many key issues.  

    Another consideration is that higher graded books are scarcer in signature series than non-SS for X-Men #1.  A 6.0 SS is top 10% (!) in the SS census for X-Men #1, compared to top 19.1% of universal census for non-SS 6.0.  So $40K for a 6.0 SS is not at all surprising in this market, especially given the recent $32.5K for a non-SS 5.5.       
    But more pertinent to this thread, this all suggests that $19.4K for the UK price variant (“UKPV”) of X-Men #1 6.0 SS (White pages no less!) was a steal at not only half the recent $40K price of its regular cents counterpart, but also way below the recent price of even a non-SS regular cents at grade 5.5.   That was surprising.     

    Another important consideration is that the UKPV 6.0 SS you are talking about was sold in an auction with a “Buy it Now,” but it sold via the BIN before any auction too place.  It could very well be that the buyer (perhaps someone informed by threads like these?  😊) grabbed that book quick after realizing the bargain at the BIN price.   In other words, because it never actually went to auction, it cannot be said that the BIN of $19.4K was the most that the seller could have fetched for that book at that time.  Note to self:  bargains can still be had on eBay via BIN.    

    Even ignoring both the recent $40K for the 6.0 SS (as you recommend) and the recent $32.5K for the 5.5 (which you overlooked and thus weakens the premise for your recommendation to ignore the $40K figure), a UKPV selling for 20% less is just another data point to put in perspective.  Finding UKPVs that still sell below their regular cent counterparts is not inconsistent with the apparent upward trend for UKPVs.  Why?   While we are seeing UKPVs regularly fetching premiums, sometimes even significant premiums over their regular cents counterparts nowadays, the trend is still in its infancy.  So it should not be surprising that you can still find relative bargains for UKPVs.   
    But what about the gap between $19.4K and the recent $40K for the regular cents 6.0 SS?  It could be that the seller of the UKPV 6.0 SS hasn't yet read the memo on UKPVs, read it but didn’t care, simply wanted to price the book to sell quick, or priced his BIN too low using stale FMV data.  

    My guess is it was the latter.   Despite the GPA data noted above, GoCollect still says an X-Men #1 6.0’s FMV is only $16,000.  We have all heard the many concerns voiced on these boards about GoCollect’s apparent failure to keep up with the pace of book appreciation compared to GPA, and even GPA does not reflect Comic-Link results.  I note also that the seller only had an eBay feedback of 11 (!) and no eBay activity for over a year.  So it is possible the seller was not in the weeds like us regarding current valuations, and may not have had access to the GPA data showing the recent $40K for a 6.0 SS and a $32.5K for a non-SS 5.5.  That alone could explain the relatively low BIN of $19.4K.  
    So I think the seller priced the book too low.  In that case, lucky buyer!   Apparently, lucky seller too.  According to GPA, that exact book sold for $9,900 in 2019, so if the seller was the buyer then, he still doubled his money.  In any event, using just GoCollect, the $19.4K BIN probably looked good to the seller (21% over the $16K FMV for a 6.0), so he/she might be happy with the sale.  

    And here are some more examples of higher prices paid for UKPVs.  An X-Men #1 UK CGC 4.0 OW/W sold 1/21/21 on eBay for $11,995.  Only two other books sold in Jan2021 per GPA:  a cents version before on 1/5/21 for $10,500, and a cents version immediately after on 1/28/21 for $10,700.   A nice pence bump based on three sales close in time.   

    More recently, a Tales of Suspense #57 CGC 7.0 UKPV sold for $1,695 "But it Now" on 3/29 despite the "best offer" being enabled.  That was significantly higher than the $1,350 for a regular cents version earlier that month for a 26% pence bump.   That $1,695 for the 7.0 UKPV was quite a bit higher than even the most recent $1,550 price in February for a regular cents version in grade 7.5!  Unlike X-Men#1, TOS #57 has not been on a torrid uptick, so the premium is remarkable.  An Avengers #1 UK CGC 4.5 O/W sold 3/26 on eBay for $6,995. The only other 4.5 book that sold in March 2021 was a cents on 3/4 for $6,211, so another apparent pence bump. Based on what we have seen of late, that UKPV premium could have been higher, so seems like another lucky buyer to me.  

    With that all said, on Heritage today a FF#5 7.5 UK sold for $16.8K (premium included), below last month's three $20K plus valuations (1/8: $17,230; 1/16: $20,400, and most recently $28.5K on 3/26) for a regular cents 7.5.  But this might be an exception.  That is at about what a JIM #83 goes for in same grade!  However cool Dr. Doom is, he is still a villain who has not even appeared in the MCU.  Even if he does as we all expect, HE IS STILL A VILLAIN!  A regular cents 7.5 was already $17K in January, double what it was the year before.  And the movie and Dr. D's role has not even come out yet!  Just pumping the breaks could explain the $16.8K for the UKPV, by aiming for the FMV of a 7.5. in January.  That makes more sense long-term (compared to FMV of superhero mega-keys like JIM#83).    Anyway, the 3.0 UKPV on Heritage sold for $6k, near the several $6.5K prices most recently fetched by a regular cents 3.0.  Considering that is about what a JIM #83 gets (no recent sales), that was a pretty good result for this UKPV compared to the 7.5 UKPV.   

    Anyway, the mere fact that we are having this discussion (with data no less!) is already night and day compared to just two years ago.  So difficult to deny the trend upwards, even with a few exceptions (like the one you note and the FF#5 tonight).  
     

    Good post. Doesn't gpa list ~29k sale for a FF5 7.5 recently, which would be a big change from the 17k Uk 7.5 sale today? Also, 3.0 FF5 have sold for 8500 on comiclink, which is noticeably different than the 6000$ uk sale.