DC#

Just noticed that. I knew I didn't understand new math!

And 7.0 was under $14k. Then there is this....past two sales at $2,100 including Halloween night on Heritage. EDIT: Didn't notice that this was a double cover. But still....not sure I would pay 3x for a double cover.

Heritage Platinum Nov 2023. There were also 2 non-CGC books that hit: Batman #1 4.5 - $180k Marvel Comics #1 2.5 - $144k

There are a lot of miswraps on comics - especially in bronze and copper. If 9.8s were dependent upon perfect wraps they would be as rare as the PSA 10 Luke Skywalker. Topps either had no QC or just didn't care back in those days - the amount of miscuts or other visual issues is just staggering. I opened some 1980 Empire Strikes Back cards in the past year and they had Star Trek The Movie stickers inside vs Star Wars.

Even in vintage sports cards the "base" rookie card is almost always worth more than an All-Star, sticker or other special card in the same set in the same year. And it is not always the case that the base card is an earlier numbered card either. One could argue this card (#57) from the same set has a more iconic Luke Skywalker image - but it sells for a fraction of card #1. #57 has a pop of 17 in PSA 10 vs 9 of the #1 so that is one thing.....but it does seem that collectors have spoken about which is most desirable for whatever reasons. Sort of like the Hulk #180 vs #181 in comics....the audiences have voted.

Thanks. Looks like this was the PBA Galleries auction.

Another example of how some, more rare collectibles are doing well still. PSA 10 of a Luke Skywalker "rookie card" just sold for a what I believe is a record $78k. Only 9 cards at this grade. Previous high according to PSA site was $55k back in 2021 - and the card was a bargain back in 2019 at $5k-$7k. And the only PSA 10 of the rookie sticker went for $58k (last sold in 2018 for under $7k)

If you bought AF#15 5.0 or Showcase #4 5.0 in 2005 at around $5k and $3k respectively - you would have had around a 15% annual return by start of 2023. That is compared to around a 9% annual rate for the S&P 500. Even a common ASM #252 in 9.8 would have generated around 12% annually over that time. As they say - past performance is not a guarantee of future performance - but that was a good period of time for at least some books if not a lot of books. That period had drivers (superhero film boom, COVID liquidity boom) and drags (2008 financial crisis, post COVID bust). But the unknown is the impact of generational dynamics that everyone has been debating and how long they might last. I am personally a little skeptical that books will see double-digit annual returns from today over the next 15 years. With no expertise whatsoever, I would think 5-7% annual growth would be surprisingly good.

$100k at 5% CAGR for 15 years would be right at $200k (100% return). A 20% return over that period would require a 1.3% CAGR (probably less than inflation). So not a stretch to think you will hit 20% but also likely that all of us could make more by selling today regardless of market conditions/prices and moving the capital to other investments. If it were only about the money.......

My following comments are sincere and are not intended to be snarky (so easy to misinterpret intent) You made a very cogent argument and seem pretty locked on your POV - so why are you here on these boards? Have you cashed out? Are you still an active hobby participant and if so why? My default assumption, which could be incorrect, is that by virtue of being on a CGC board your interest in comics has been more than just reading/collecting raw books. In parallel - I have very high nostalgia for vintage Kenner Star Wars figures (still have all my childhood figures and vehicles) and have been tempted to buy some high quality Mint On Card figures in the past few years. I have resisted because I worry that group of collectors is very narrow and almost no one outside of my generation has any connection to those toys. When I observe collectors/buyers on YT etc - they all seem to be in a very small demo that look like me (not to mention that each figure was produced in the millions and there is no good census/pop count to tell you how many exist even as graded examples). I have said before on one of these threads - I am a bit more encouraged by the demo spread I see at comic conventions (national and local). Still a lot of "me" but there are a significant number of young people - and also seeing a lot more women than I saw decades ago.

Covid became a great excuse to stop getting actual signatures. As far as tracking - USPS is by far the most accurate in my experience and FedEx is typically pretty good too. UPS is the one that is one where they say Friday, Friday, Friday and you get a failed delivery attempt out of the blue on Thursday. Had that happen so many times even when checking the status on the days of the unexpected failed delivery attempt. People like to bash government agencies but USPS is actually pretty amazing and efficient.

For that AF#15 chart I have been trying to capture sales that do not show up in GPA (like Clink and a few other spots). Can't say that I have gotten them all but hopefully most are there.

This may be more semantics on my part - but when I said not the same movie/TV hype I was referencing an actual announced project like FF that drives the belief that Dr Doom is going to show up (not a stretch to think that is possible). I personally never considered the GR rumors to be at the same level - especially when Marvel slate of projects for next 3-5 years are announced/updated yearly around SDCC and/or D23 Expo. Mephisto is another example of where everyone got excited for a pretty short frame of time based on no real information. My view of speculators has always been more that they are relatively quick in and quick out (which may be way too generic to be accurate). I don't perceive that most speculators (if that is who drove up the price on many of the rumor books) want to buy and hold on a book that may not hit the movie peak for years and years. FF is going to take 5 years from announcement to launch acknowledging that SAG and WGA strikes could be impacting that a bit. If you bought MS #5 in 2021 on spec - you might not see an actual GR series/movie until 2028/9 at this point. All of that to say - I was questioning if there was something different about Ghost Rider and his popularity that might mean the rise in value of MS #5 indicates a new elevated plateau. I think Miles Morales is an example where increased popularity (granted this was supported by movies) has created a new elevated plateau where UF#4 falling back to 2017/18 prices when a 9.8 was a $300 book seems less likely.

6.0 is still trading at around 3x what it was in 2017/18. So curve is not too different than the 9.4.

I might have put my money into more historically proven books…..but maybe this was Nic Cage trying to start his collection again

Not in terms of announced projects or development that drove books from Agatha Harkness to X-men. As a matter of fact, the most aggressive movie speculation has been in the past month not back when the 9.8 copy set the new record.

I have been buying steadily all year long (including mega keys) targeting prices that were in that early 2020 range or better. Now I find myself looking to see what the values were back in 2016/17 before pulling the trigger to see how much of a paper loss I could be facing if declines continue at this pace for an extended time. But there are some books that hard to determine if there will be a new floor. For example, I have passively looked at acquiring Marvel Spotlight #5. Go back to 2017/18 and a 9.4 was trading in the $3k-$4k range. The low this year is still $15k with a 12-mos average around $17k. Even 2019/20 was in the $6k range. And the growth was not driven by the same level of movie/show hype that has driven other books. So is the new floor on this one somewhere between $12k and $15k? Or is it likely that this book will too slip down to somewhere below $10k?

Here is a recap of Session 1 and 2 of the Oct/Nov ComicLink auction. Not sure if I will recap any of the upcoming sessions....... And apologies for error that is showing an actual decline in the 90 day column for books that have no recent sale like GA Detective. Just ignore

in line with the June sale on ComicConnect but both that one and thus one are 20% off the June heritage. Can’t remember if heritage copy was particularly noteworthy Incredible Hulk #1 8.0 - $188k Dec 2021. Previous $140k in 2021 Incredible Hulk #1 8.0 - $156K Aug 2022 (Goldin) Incredible Hulk #1 8.0 - $111.2k June 2023 (ComicConnect) Incredible Hulk #1 8.0 - $138k June 2023 (Heritage) Incredible Hulk #1 8.0 - $112k Oct 2023 (ComicLink)

Hulk #1 8.0 ComicLink

Big big differences here. ComicLink OW 6.5 sitting at $46.5k with just under 48 hours to go while a 6.5 OW/W just closed for right at $35k on eBay.

Take

Hadn't updated this in a bit.......

"Jay Powell will keep saying inflation is too high until consumers believe him" https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jay-powell-will-keep-saying-inflation-is-too-high-until-consumers-believe-him-100020733.html The September retail sales report was much stronger than expected and August was revised even higher. I bet the Fed would welcome some of the headwinds above doing a little more to blunt consumer spending. Seems like many of the economic factors/variables are still not behaving in the normally predictive manner. I would be interested to understand more about volume of sales now vs prior years. I did a quick look at ASM 300 in 9.6 on GPA (popular book with ample supply) just to see how active it is currently. 2023 is on track to be the lowest volume of transactions since 2015/2016. With a census of ~4000 in 9.6, 4% will change hands this year vs peak of around 7% in 2018 (and was probably higher than 7% as I assume the census has grown since then). Would also be curious what the typical mix of GPA results are for BIN vs auction. Are there fewer books being offered at auction this year (which could help support price stabilization)? Are BIN books just sitting with no offers? Last sale of this book in October 2023 is half of the 2021 average. How much lower might it be if there had been another 100 copies made available this year or available at more attractive prices? For the record - I do not own this book so I have no personal angle on it.

ASM 194 has been bouncing between mid-$2k and mid-$3k for all of 2023. The Heritage sale at $3k last night was a near perfect wrap vs those two Ebay examples which probably drove it up a bit. And looking back to sales are recently as August, $3k doesn't seem that out of line. Also interesting that the Sept sale of $2400 doesn't show up in GPA...wonder what happened.