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What's special with this book ?!

Started by osborn_fr,

14 posts in this topic

joe_collector

joe_collector

Posted
Posted
Crazy price. Top of this CGC bubble market. 893frustrated.gif

 

I don't know about anyone else, but this is starting to scare me. Once the retaiiler/limited/signature varants start bringing in the huge bucks, I start having flashbacks to the early 90's.

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DiceX

DiceX

Posted
Posted
Crazy price. Top of this CGC bubble market. 893frustrated.gif

 

I don't know about anyone else, but this is starting to scare me. Once the retaiiler/limited/signature varants start bringing in the huge bucks, I start having flashbacks to the early 90's.

 

Yeah. Just think what a Chromium cover with black, red, and blue variants would go for.

foreheadslap.gif

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joe_collector

joe_collector

Posted
Posted
GGGGRrrrrrrrrR!

This makes me angry, and you wouldn;t like me when I'm angry...

 

cash from chaos, the downward spiral has begun...

 

I know what you mean, and many on here misunderstand collector anger towards these crazy sales. Most have been through the great depression of the 90's (and some others, the 80's) and understand how much long-term damage that hype-driven, unsustainable prices can do to the hobby.

 

But I guess there can be no happy-medium with collectibles in general, so we should just accept the inevitable.

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Mushroom

Mushroom

Posted
Posted
Crazy price. Top of this CGC bubble market. 893frustrated.gif

 

I don't know about anyone else, but this is starting to scare me. Once the retaiiler/limited/signature varants start bringing in the huge bucks, I start having flashbacks to the early 90's.

 

I hate to agree with you Joe but there are some disturbing comparisons to the early 90's happening right now.

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comicwiz

comicwiz

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Posted

I thought it might be of some use to explain an example of how (what I like to term as "non-essential" consumer items) markets, by their very nature, are susceptable to volatility, and unusual value sensitive patterns, that do not necessarily imply market crash-type activity.

 

Before I do, it might be worthwhile to give a brief explanation to how micro chip manufacturers like Intel manufactures its technology with a specific marketing/sales strategy designed purely to maximize its returns. Each time a generation of a chip is manufactured, it is rated for a specific processing speed. That means that when the Pentium III processor was first developed, it was manfuctured to hit clock speeds of up to 1.5 Ghz. Interestingly enough, when the PIII computer chip was first released, it was released at 450 Mhz. Within a years time, it reached processing speeds of 1 Mhz. Some lag in the development of a P4 chip, and a drop in demand for PC purchasing forced a more prolonged approach to increasing the clock speed to 1.5. But one thing most consumers aren't aware of is that the same PIII chip that first sold as a 450 Mhz, is the exact same PIII chip that sold as a 1 Mhz a year later. The only thing that changes is architectural design in the central processor that houses the chip, and a "governor" which prevents hacks from manually resetting the clock speed (as well as special fans to vent heat produced by a chip twice as fast as its predecessor).

 

The interesting thing about this strategy is that it allows chip makers like Intel to reap rewards on a graduated level, without devaluing the product by releasing the product at his highest rated clock speed. So rather than saturating the market within the first month of release with a PIII 1.5 Ghz chip, at say US $150 per unit, at 1 million units sold, and then standing to eventually decrease its price to allure the remaining 10 million consumers -- instead, if that same chip is marketed and sold on a 3 month rotation, with increments of 150 Mhz each cycle, Intel could realize profits over an entire year, and still achieve similar returns as it did its first month without being forced to drop its per unit price. Remember, the PIII chip is exactly the same chip at 450 Mhz, as it is at 1.5 Mhz -- and the following is a hypothetical chart which further demonstrates this point:

 

PIII Chip Price Per Unit Month/Year
450 Mhz $150 Jan 2002
500-650 Mhz $150 March 2002
700-900 Mhz $150 June 2002
1-1.2 Ghz $150 Sept 2002
1.3-1.5 Ghz $150 Dec 2002

 

Again, by using this kind of marketing approach, Intel gains to maximize returns from its chip, avoids devaluing its chip, prolongs profit and revenue realization, and in doing so also stands a better chance at financing the manufacturing of its next generation of chip.

 

For the past two years, I have been selling electronics on eBay. This marketing/sales strategy used by Intel has allowed me to profit from products which use mobile chips, and for the most part, I have been able to witness firsthand its success in maintaining consumer interest and demand. Dating back to 2001, the mobile pentium III processor was yielding incredible returns. Tier 1 manufacturers like Toshiba, Dell, IBM, Compaq and HP were the best gainers, and the amazing thing is that every 3 months, the next best PC was manufactured with a quicker chip. Faster technology meant higher, and consistent returns on auction yields.

 

This trend carried well into 2002, and with the advent and release of the mobile P4 chip, gains continued to rise steadily. However, In the last 8 months, the market, and all mobile technology has taken a serious [!@#%^&^] kicking. This strategy has faltered. Not for any reason other than softened sales, and an ailing economy. Returns are back to 2001 values, and whenever anomalies occur that prove otherwise, they are usually explained by international bidders who are not afforded the opportunity to purchase such technology at their country of residence without having to pay handsome luxury taxes. 99% of these transaction never transpire for reasons mainly that the risks far outweigh the rewards.

 

Do I think the mobile computer technology market is doomed, and headed for a crash? No. Do I think the the drop in PC comsumer purchasing is a symptom of a US recession? Yes, particularly because my buyers in 2001 and 2002 were predominantly (about 70%) from the US. In 2003, sales are predominanty (about 85% from Canada). However, this dynamic drop in values and sales is nothing new. What is new is the amount of time that this has lasted.

 

The laggard mentality to PC purchasing has a pattern that repeats itself about 3 months before the next generation of chip is manufactured. This pattern seems to be constantly changing, and I would estimate that its gone from 3 months to 6 months in the last 3 years. Are chip makers worried? Perhaps, but they'll figure it out, and in the end, consumers will STILL be tempted to purchase a faster, quicker computer, which is far more feature robust than the one they currently own. Do I go and spend $3500 on a new unit with a centrino mobile processor, or $65 for a WIFI ethernet card on my exisiting system? Personally, I would much rather for for the WIFI card, just as I would a VF/NM copy of a comic is just as good to me as it overpriced NM+ counterpart. This doesn't mean that the consumer EVER needs "the next best thing" -- in fact, I would argue that technology is one of the worst forms of investment, and the non-essential consumer items market (comics included) would surely crash in the face of famine, and mass death as all other markets would. The signs are there for us all to form our own opinions, and its so easy to rationalize value-sensitive markets as markets destined to crash. I just think that all variables need to be layed out on the table to arrive at a cogent theory and explanation for the current economic downturn, and not a percieved economic downward trend in values that is specific to the comic market alone.

 

There are many similarities in what is happening to value sensitive markets like mobile technology and comics in the current economy. The only flag of caution -- a permanent fixture and not one motivated by concern over dwindling markets -- people should always assess their risk tolerance and invest accordingly.

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