Disturbing Trend

[blazingbob]

First off it is very risky to overgrade with impunity based on CGC being "in" the market. If you are selling "raw" books to people who send them in and the buyer continues to "lose" you don't last long as a dealer. Selling raw and at discount to what it would sell for graded gives the dealer wiggle room in case it comes back lower and you the buyer a chance to win if it comes back exactly what you graded it. If it comes back higher than the both of you thought than the buyer is excited and the dealer is pissed off he didn't get it graded. But that's the risk "we" both take.

 

For example:

Harley showed me a raw Hulk #181 in New York. It was priced at this amount. Based on my experience with CGC I thought it could grade a 9.2, at worst a 9.0. The raw price was too high for me to "take a shot". Well, Harley shows me the book in Baltimore and it came back a 9.4. Both of us shook our heads but I "lost" since I didn't take "the shot".

 

 

[Foolkiller]

One thing that has always confused me is why when people do find a steal from a dealer and then get the book slabbed, they go back to the dealer to tell them basically what fools they were and how much more money you just made off of them. Why not just keep your mouth shut and see if you can repeat the same success if that's what you're going for?

 

Obviously, as many who've seen me post before, I believe Bob to be the most solid of the raw graders I've seen. That's why I buy from him and a couple other guys (I'm going to throw Zen comics up there now too, bought some great books from them). The problem is, no one dealer has everything you're looking for, and you need to look at everyone's stock. Plus, although I end up buying from the same people, I want to look at everyone's stock.

 

I guess the initial reason for my post was that I'm troubled by the fact that the overgrading on raw grades has gotten worse in the last year or so. I don't mind paying the value for a book if the book is accurately graded. If that means above guide as a going rate... so be it. I've spoken to dealers at shows to nicely address the problem, but usually am met with hostility (which I can understand to some degree, you're attacking in some ways, their livelihood) and a brush off. What I can't understand is spending some time explaining or least negotiating a price. Too many dealers are just surly without reason, and I really don't think I'm being a [!@#%^&^] about it. I would never openly challenge a dealer with other customers standing right there, and I'm certainly not going to rip into them. I've quietly, during a down period, asked questions about a grade. Now, it has gotten a little heated if they start up with me... but still, I never go in with that attitude.

 

Grading is only relevant in terms of pricing. Who cares whether it's a 9.0 or 9.2... if I want the book, it's the book I'm after, I just don't want to pay way over what I should. Heck, often, if the book looks nice I'll eat a little bit of money on it.

 

Ultimately, people are just saying, don't buy the books, let them sit on them if the grades aren't fair... and that's one way to approach it. It's probably the only way at this point.

 

I'm not business minded when it comes to the resale of my books... I'm rarely doing it to raise cash, but more because my limited attention span has bored me with a group of books or I'm raising money for a new book I really want or an upgrade. Ultimately, I've always been of the belief that the dealer has to make out somewhat in the deal, and the deal should be fair for both sides. The dealers I'll sell to are ones I have a long term relationship with and that are fair... but I do think it's important that these guys, many of them, are trying to make a living... for me it's a hobby... but I guess that's why I don't negotiate super tough on sales or buying... you're usually quibbling about relatively small amounts.

[chrisco37]

Great thread, Brian.

 

It reminds me of the exact situation I ran into at Baltimore '02 Show. One of the books that I was really looking hard for was an FF#112. We all know that it's a tough book, and I was looking around the show for the nicest copies I could find. Bob had a graded 9.0 that I looked at. It was just what I was looking for. I asked Bob his price and said, I'd think about it. Right next to Bob there was a dealer w/ a sweet raw copy. I asked him for his price and it was double what Bob was asking!!!

 

When I told him that Bob had a graded copy for alot cheaper, the response was, "Well you could CGC it and get a 9.4. Those have been selling around $1000 on eBay." Yeah, it could have rec'd a 9.4, but I wasn't willing to risk it. Not for double the price. I bought Bob's instead. It's one of my favorite books!

 

Chris

[fantastic_four]

One thing that has always confused me is why when people do find a steal from a dealer and then get the book slabbed, they go back to the dealer to tell them basically what fools they were and how much more money you just made off of them. Why not just keep your mouth shut and see if you can repeat the same success if that's what you're going for?

 

Shuley and gman aren't exactly the most tactful flippers I've ever encountered!

 

 

I guess the initial reason for my post was that I'm troubled by the fact that the overgrading on raw grades has gotten worse in the last year or so.

 

Not sure why you think that...I would argue that approximately 95% of collectors and 60% of dealers haven't been tight graders for decades now!

 

 

What I can't understand is spending some time explaining or least negotiating a price. Too many dealers are just surly without reason, and I really don't think I'm being a [!@#%^&^] about it. I would never openly challenge a dealer with other customers standing right there, and I'm certainly not going to rip into them. I've quietly, during a down period, asked questions about a grade. Now, it has gotten a little heated if they start up with me... but still, I never go in with that attitude.

 

I associate this kind of attitude with the nature of comic book collecting as a high-dollar hobby. Comics are for kids, and we're paying adult dollars for them. It makes sense to me that there are going to be a bunch of sellers and dealers caught in various stages of "arrested development," i.e., immaturity, who still have the ego of a small child, teenager, or young adult. After all, every adult comic book collector still has some semblence of the imagination of a child...but unfortnately...some of them still have a lot of other child-like character traits.

 

 

Ultimately, people are just saying, don't buy the books, let them sit on them if the grades aren't fair... and that's one way to approach it. It's probably the only way at this point.

 

Absolutely, I buy raw from only about 1 out of every 100 ebay sellers, and only 1 out of every 10 dealers via mail order. I suspect there are other tight graders amongst the ebay sellers and dealers out there, but if they are out there and they don't do anything to convince me of that with their auction descriptions or web site content, then they're doing themselves a disservice! Any dealer or frequent seller needs to realize that the majority of sellers overgrade, and that they need to do all they can to convince their customers that they're better-than-average at grading.

[g-man]

have we ever done a deal?

 

if i can snag a few books at a good price, get em slabbed and they come back pretty high, i am not one to call or visit said seller and brag about it. And I do not beleive I have ever said on these boards how much i make on a book. Rather I state the final price for it or that I did pretty well in the sale. I do not however have any time for people who buy a book at an inflated price and then sell it a few weeks/months later at a loss. Not good business.

[sfilosa]

guess the initial reason for my post was that I'm troubled by the fact that the overgrading on raw grades has gotten worse in the last year or so

 

While I have to admit that I haven't bought a ton of raw books lately, overgrading HAS ALWAYS BEEN A PROBLEM.

 

Quick Points:

 

1) If you can buy a CGC VF/NM book for $X and a raw copy that you believe is a VF/NM for $10 less, buy the CGC copy. You have added a restoration check, a grading check and increased liquidity.

 

2) In my opinion, most books that look nicer than their CGC grade have NON-COLOR BREAKING SURFACE WEAR. For the Eye Appeal collector, it sometimes bewilders the mind when we see these books get a CGC VF yet a mis-cut, yellowed, printer creased book get a CGC NM.

 

3) If you really want to buy raw books and make money CGC'ing them, then the easiest way would be to find dealers who WILL reduce the GRADE of the book for those defects mentioned in #2.

 

 

[dam60]

guess the initial reason for my post was that I'm troubled by the fact that the overgrading on raw grades has gotten worse in the last year or so

 

While I have to admit that I haven't bought a ton of raw books lately, overgrading HAS ALWAYS BEEN A PROBLEM.

 

I don't think that anyone is saying that overgrading hasn't always been a problem, just that it's gotten worse.

[dam60]

Shuley and gman aren't exactly the most tactful flippers I've ever encountered!

 

FF - posts like these especially when GMan is saying that you two have never done business gives a little more credence to Hammer's argument that the forum always needs someone to pick on . . . .

 

DAM

[dam60]

For example:

Harley showed me a raw Hulk #181 in New York. It was priced at this amount. Based on my experience with CGC I thought it could grade a 9.2, at worst a 9.0. The raw price was too high for me to "take a shot". Well, Harley shows me the book in Baltimore and it came back a 9.4. Both of us shook our heads but I "lost" since I didn't take "the shot".

 

Everyone should note who I am quoting from - this is BlazingBob one of the top CGC dealers IMO telling you: Buy the book, not the label

 

'Nuff Said!

 

DAM

[sfilosa]

don't think that anyone is saying that overgrading hasn't always been a problem, just that it's gotten worse.

 

Not to belabor the point, but could you share an example or two of a specific dealer that you feel is overgrading their books more than in the past?

 

 

[dam60]

don't think that anyone is saying that overgrading hasn't always been a problem, just that it's gotten worse.

 

Not to belabor the point, but could you share an example or two of a specific dealer that you feel is overgrading their books more than in the past?

 

I for one have no idea. However if you read Foolkiller's original post:

guess the initial reason for my post was that I'm troubled by the fact that the overgrading on raw grades has gotten worse in the last year or so

 

he clearly states that the grading has deteriorated.

[blazingbob]

Purchase of 139 books in Baltimore

 

Prescreen 9.0 or better of all 139

 

Prescreen rejects 15

 

Total being graded 124

 

A miracle has occurred, only 10% rejected.

 

[garthgantu]

Everything you say is true, but like Heritage employees bidding on books they're able to evaluate in person (for potential undergrades), you can be sure that when you take a new collection to a show and collectors are able to look at the books and decide for themselves, the undergraded books are going to sell first, and the overgraded books are going to sell last (all other things being equal).

 

Ah, but "all other things" are *never truly equal in an example like this.

1) some people simply don't know how to grade, period (but they still think they do)

2) everyone's grading criteria is different; your 9.2 may be my 8.5 (and vice versa) simply because you don't knock off grades for mis-wraps and I do (as just one theoretical example)

3) everyone's 'want lists' are different - I may not need the ASM 129 in NM- 9.2, but I do need the ASM 149 in VF/NM 9.0

 

...since these and other variables are just that - variables - I don't see how "all other things" could ever be equal.

 

Yes, I've certainly seen dealer tables at shows that were clearly 'picked over' - but after many shows in the past 29 years, I don't remember ever seeing a table where all the high grade stuff was gone and only the mid- to low-grade stuff remained.

[drbanner]

I don't see how "all other things" could ever be equal.

 

Put out two exactly identical books, one graded NM- and one graded NM+ and see which sells first. That's my point, and that's the hypothetical scenario where "all other things" are equal - the undergraded book would be gone long before the overgraded book.

 

I don't remember ever seeing a table where all the high grade stuff was gone and only the mid- to low-grade stuff remained.

 

Then I need to go to those shows!! New collections get cherry-picked right off the bat, and I'll bet you a wooden nickel that by the time Bob takes his shweet, new collection to the fifth/sixth/seventh show most of the good stuff (NM books and/or undergraded books) is gone.

[supapimp]

FF - posts like these especially when GMan is saying that you two have never done business gives a little more credence to Hammer's argument that the forum always needs someone to pick on . . . .

 

DAM

 

[Rip]

I dunno, I usually do good at shows. Enough to at least make a couple hundred dollars by flipping a few books. In fact I have never bought a CGC book at a convention. Why buy CGC when you can grade raw books yourself and pick up lots of high grade stuff for a fraction of the cost.

It's getting tougher, but it can still be done.

Rarely have I been burned.

 

 

[Foolkiller]

I'm going to respond with specific dealers here, although normally I shy away from it. Let me say up front that I don't know these guys personally, and I'm not commenting on their reputation overall, nor am I saying any of these guys are bad guys, but I am commenting on what my perceptions are with grading. Also, I feel that as I started this thread, I should back up what my personal feelings are, and give a chance to others here to respond and tell me if they think I'm wrong in these experiences:

 

Here goes:

 

Graham Crackers: I've been looking at Graham crackers books now for the past 3 or 4 years at the conventions. Every time I go and look at the books, I see books that I feel are misgraded. When I first saw them at a show, I guess it was 3 years back now, I saw their books, and although overgraded, I didn't think they were any worse on the high end than anyone else. However, even their mid grade books were off as well. Their prices on silver/bronze are high, which isn't a problem in and of itself, but now, at the most recent Baltimore show, I noticed that there were several books, including a few DDs that were just grossly inflated. They were priced at well over NM prices and the grades weren't NMs in my opinion. I may be tight, but I couldn't see 9.4. When I say a trend of declining or stretching the grade, this is what I'm referring to: the book is closer to a 9.0 and they're aksing above guide for a raw book (they were keys and minor keys)? I can't see that.

 

Motor City Comics: Let me give Motor City this first: they're professional and courteous. However, I took a look at a Batman 232 graded NM 9.4 raw that they wanted $475, if memory serves, for the book. I'm sorry... you want how much for a raw copy? I know the book is hot, and commands it if it's CGC'd, but the book, while sweet, was definitely on the fence. Motor City has been escalating the prices of raw books to the same level as CGC books, and that's basically what I have a problem with there. The books, as most raw books generally are, slightly overgraded... and that becomes a problem, because they're pitching the book to other consumers, and while not grossly off, that small difference on a high ticket book, is just too great a risk.

 

Another example I have is of a dealer, and I honestly can't think of the name, that I saw in Baltimore with two DD 7s both of which were mid to low grade copies. the first was stickered at VF, which I saw on the wall. $325. Now, I'm not exaggerating in the least, when I tell you the book would be lucky to get a fine. It was that ugly. I bought a DD 7 from that same dealer 2 and half years ago a much nicer VF... price? $200.

 

Harley Yee: Harley's a nice guy, but I've been noticing that prices just keep going up on his raw books to the point where the prices aren't realistic. He's asking for basically CGC prices on raw books. And these aren't even always keys. I don't even look anymore, and many people don't even look at his stock based on this reputation... but the guy keeps selling... so what do I know.

 

Finally, a lot of small time dealers at local shows seem to be inflating their grades to justify higher prices... I mean that with books especially above 9.0 where the response is usually that "I've seen CGC books that were much uglier" and this is a trend I'm noticing with the weekend warriors. VF-s and below should not command above guide, and even guide is a little bit of a stretch in my opinion. This advertising with CGC as being how these people grade is deceptive, because as someone else said, nobody knows how CGC grades.

 

Look, there's plenty of dealers I like on a personal level like Ted VanLiew of Superworld where I have to be fair and say, sometimes I think the grading is spotty... but here's the difference. Ted's grading has gotten tighter since CGC, he's always friendly concerning disputes on grading, and will work with you on prices. I probably shouldn't say this, but I'm actually willing to eat it a little on price with him, because I never believe that he's being dishonest about what he thinks... but ultimately, I still have to make a decision concerning the book itself and whether I want to pay that price. So... I wanted to be fair here as well, and even with someone I like a lot, also point out that while Ted's grading is a little tighter... the prices on the raw books are really shooting up to points where they're at CGC levels... and I can't say I'm happy with it because I don't feel that there's a justification, just cause it's a dealer I like very much.

 

Look, there are PLENTY of good dealers (and no, I don't think there's only 3) out there at the shows, but for new people in the hobby, or those without as good an eye as many of us here on the boards... I'm concerned... because if CGC prices start to fall off a little in high grade think what you have in your hands if you have a raw overgraded 8.5 that's really a 7.5? Burned? you bet. And that's troubling.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Graham Crackers

 

I wasn't going to mention any specific dealers either in response to Bob's posts, but thanks for bringing up my number one culprit.

 

I dropped by their booth at MegaCon earlier this year, and was shocked to find a nasty looking VG/F-ish F.F. 19 with a $600 price tag on it. The book would sell for $40-$50 on ebay, but here they had it at well above NM levels. When I inquired about it, they told me they could make me a sweet deal (for only $500). Now, did they seriously expect to sell this book to someone who has a clue about grading and the market?

 

As for high grade books that they had, the strategy was the same. VF Bronze X-Men at NM levels and so forth. Oddly enough, assigned grades were missing from most of the labels, but the prices were certainly obvious.

 

 

 

[Rip]

Great post....I think I agree with about everything you wrote

[garthgantu]

I don't see how "all other things" could ever be equal.

 

Put out two exactly identical books, one graded NM- and one graded NM+ and see which sells first. That's my point, and that's the hypothetical scenario where "all other things" are equal - the undergraded book would be gone long before the overgraded book.

***Okay, but if you factor in some of the things that I noted as 'never being equal,' I think you might still find that the overgraded book sells first...

- perhaps because (as one example) the price spread would be 2x or more in many (most?) cases....

- perhaps because some buyers simply can't grade, especially at the level you're describing in this example, and would take it on faith that the dealer knows more about grading than said buyer...

- perhaps because to the buyer, the book you consider 'undergraded' (NM-) is in fact overgraded, and the 'overgraded' book (NM+) is dead-on...a lot of this is in the eye of the beholder, after all...

 

I don't remember ever seeing a table where all the high grade stuff was gone and only the mid- to low-grade stuff remained.

 

Then I need to go to those shows!! New collections get cherry-picked right off the bat, and I'll bet you a wooden nickel that by the time Bob takes his shweet, new collection to the fifth/sixth/seventh show most of the good stuff (NM books and/or undergraded books) is gone.

***Again, I'm just pointing out that in the real world, your "all things being equal" caveat is unrealistic...it just doesn't happen that way. If Bob priced all the overgraded and undergraded stuff the same (let's say at OS Guide value, for the sake of argument), and if every buyer could grade like Steve Borock, and if every buyer's want list included everything on Bob's table, then okay, your prediction would probably be correct...!